Strategy for Baccarat Tournament?
September 4th, 2021 at 8:10:25 AM
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It is hard for average people to realize the hardships the uber-rich go through on a daily basis. Where is congress? What's the point of being rich if you still have to deal with little people who think so small?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 4th, 2021 at 8:23:29 AM
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Well, part of the reason we are in Vegas for this long versus someplace else is due to the Pandemic. In general, travel these days isn't so safe. But just going to one place and staying seems safer...plus travel to Vegas from where we live doesn't involve long hours of air travel other than the infrequent short jaunts back I have to do every now and then for business. Air travel in itself these days is potentially unsafe.
Plus when my wife says, "I don't want to be here. I want to be in Paris. Or New York," I can say, What do you mean? Paris is just down the street. So is New York!
Plus when my wife says, "I don't want to be here. I want to be in Paris. Or New York," I can say, What do you mean? Paris is just down the street. So is New York!
Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 4, 2021
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 4th, 2021 at 8:24:23 AM
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Totally Great play, thread and insight!
You allowed me the super path to tens of thousands of dollars I have carried away from the baccarat table.
Love it, all of it. Every darn drop of it!
Marcus Clark
You allowed me the super path to tens of thousands of dollars I have carried away from the baccarat table.
Love it, all of it. Every darn drop of it!
Marcus Clark
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert.
*Certified EMT
*Certified Company Firearms Instructor.
*Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications.
*Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert.
*Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess.
*Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club.
*Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members.
*Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer
*Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
September 4th, 2021 at 8:38:12 AM
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Quote: Marcusclark66Totally Great play, thread and insight!
link to original post
You allowed me the super path to tens of thousands of dollars I have carried away from the baccarat table.
Love it, all of it. Every darn drop of it!
Marcus Clark
It takes a brave soul to follow in mdawgs footsteps, especially knowing the hardships that lie ahead for you. Knowing you might be limited to participating in one promotion per trip obviously discourages most people from following mdawgs path but every so often a man appears, willing to overcome whatever obstacles he may face.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 4th, 2021 at 8:41:12 AM
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I assume you're having a dig at the Dawg. Jealousy biting? The thing is, many here can still enjoy and learn from the escapades, even if they aren't in the same league....yet!Quote: billryanIt is hard for average people to realize the hardships the uber-rich go through on a daily basis. Where is congress? What's the point of being rich if you still have to deal with little people who think so small?
link to original post
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
September 4th, 2021 at 8:45:05 AM
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Quote: WellbushI assume you're having a dig at the Dawg. Jealously biting? The thing is, many here can still enjoy and learn from the escapades, even if they aren't in the same league....yet!link to original postQuote: billryanIt is hard for average people to realize the hardships the uber-rich go through on a daily basis. Where is congress? What's the point of being rich if you still have to deal with little people who think so small?
link to original post
Keep hope alive. Maybe someday you too will have too much luggage, although I suspect they will come up with a cure for it someday soon.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 4th, 2021 at 8:45:28 AM
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I can't recall who said it, maybe it was BillRyan, maybe it was someone else, but I recall another playful "dig" as you put it from someone, something about how, "It must be exhausting" simply deciding which watch to put on in the morning.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 4th, 2021 at 8:54:39 AM
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That allows me to segue into this point... The Dawg appears to have a decent sized bankroll, no? And he's shown he's happy to call it quits after just a short flutter (possibly taking advantage of short term positive variance). Combine it with all the other methods he uses: stated tendency to avoid negative variance, stated progressive bet sizes, stated unrevealed AP, stated comps, stated experience in baccarat, stated knowledge of baccarat game flow (I believe there is such a thing when a player plays long enough and is attuned to such things), other things I may not remember or be aware of. Is it too far fetched he's a long term winner, given his witnessed winning play that consists of the same methods he consistently posts about?
Last edited by: Wellbush on Sep 4, 2021
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
September 4th, 2021 at 9:05:32 AM
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I'm not here to upset people, believe me. Naysayers need to acknowledge the clearly possible facts I denoted above. I'm not trying to rub naysayers the wrong way (although the above post will undoubtedly do that for at least some). But is that post in any way lopsided or not factual?
I haven't even been definitive and stated categorically that he is a long term winner. How could I be? I don't know the guy other than via his posts and PMs. I'm not on the same continent. I can only say that I THINK he's a long term winner. Others are quite entitled to make their own mind up, or be a fence-sitter (I lean toward the Dawg being a long term winner, but I'm not certain), like me.
I haven't even been definitive and stated categorically that he is a long term winner. How could I be? I don't know the guy other than via his posts and PMs. I'm not on the same continent. I can only say that I THINK he's a long term winner. Others are quite entitled to make their own mind up, or be a fence-sitter (I lean toward the Dawg being a long term winner, but I'm not certain), like me.
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
September 4th, 2021 at 9:13:15 AM
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We watched this movie Temple Grandin (2010) the other day. She is an autistic who studied the sounds and movements of cattle to design cattle dipping vat structures and slaughterhouses to move cattle calmly through curved chutes to their end destination. Apparently cattle are happiest and most at ease when being guided in certain ways and in certain directions.
As well, WOV has apparently decided that certain topics might be best discussed only in certain chutes, namely in The Adventures of MDawg.
As well, WOV has apparently decided that certain topics might be best discussed only in certain chutes, namely in The Adventures of MDawg.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 4th, 2021 at 9:32:05 AM
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noted. I got carried away, even though I was stating things in an unbiased mannerQuote: MDawgAs well, WOV has apparently decided that certain topics might be best discussed only in certain chutes, namely in The Adventures of MDawg.
link to original post
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
September 4th, 2021 at 10:02:14 AM
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Quote: WellbushNaysayers need to acknowledge the clearly possible facts I denoted above.
Nay, I say, nay.
Much of what you posted is based on superstition and conjecture.
That may work with religion but not with gambling.
"What, me worry?"
September 4th, 2021 at 10:12:01 AM
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You say nay, I say ni. Except that we are no longer say Ni!
We are now say ekki-ekki-ekki-pitang-zoom-boing!
We are now say ekki-ekki-ekki-pitang-zoom-boing!
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 4th, 2021 at 10:42:10 AM
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Also, if she says “I want to be at the circus”, it’s just up the street!Quote: MDawg
Plus when my wife says, "I don't want to be here. I want to be in Paris. Or New York," I can say, What do you mean? Paris is just down the street. So is New York!
It’s all about making that GTA
September 4th, 2021 at 12:36:14 PM
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I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 10:48:37 AM
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Advice on free 1000 football bet
I am in a few free entry tournaments this weekend, pretty big ones, including one bigger than the below. Each tournament gives entrants some free gifts. One of the tournaments gave me some bluetooth speakers and other Sony items.
As part of this one Blackjack tournament they gave me a gift card, which is typical, but also - I have to pick a professional football wager. The terms state, "Bet(s) must be placed on a Professional Football wager and may be redeemed Thursday, September 9 through kick off Monday, September 13, 2021." It is a flat free roll bet (no need to "match") but if you win you get only the winnings not the 1000 plus winnings.
We will be at the game Monday night at Allegiant in one of the casino suites. But that doesn't mean I have to bet on that game.
What should I bet on? Ideas.
You do not have to go through the bother of registering on their app. Just place the bet.
Only over/under or straight pts bets though.
I was thinking Green Bay (the under), but given that you get only the winnings, then maybe, Green Bay straight up to win (-3.5)?
I am in a few free entry tournaments this weekend, pretty big ones, including one bigger than the below. Each tournament gives entrants some free gifts. One of the tournaments gave me some bluetooth speakers and other Sony items.
As part of this one Blackjack tournament they gave me a gift card, which is typical, but also - I have to pick a professional football wager. The terms state, "Bet(s) must be placed on a Professional Football wager and may be redeemed Thursday, September 9 through kick off Monday, September 13, 2021." It is a flat free roll bet (no need to "match") but if you win you get only the winnings not the 1000 plus winnings.
We will be at the game Monday night at Allegiant in one of the casino suites. But that doesn't mean I have to bet on that game.
What should I bet on? Ideas.
You do not have to go through the bother of registering on their app. Just place the bet.
Only over/under or straight pts bets though.
I was thinking Green Bay (the under), but given that you get only the winnings, then maybe, Green Bay straight up to win (-3.5)?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 11:11:18 AM
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Bet big to win big.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 2:31:08 PM
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Give it to a homeless person. A $1000 voucher isn’t even worth your time. $100k minimum
It’s all about making that GTA
September 11th, 2021 at 4:37:51 PM
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One of Mike's Commandments of Gambling - Thou shalt not hedge, I don't always agree with this commandment.Quote: MDawgBet big to win big.
link to original post
Either way, you could just lock up some money, but that would not be as fun and u give up some value.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 11th, 2021 at 5:38:33 PM
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Well, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 6:32:43 PM
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I like the Broncos a lot. #1 Defense in the red zone last 2 years. Get Von Miller back. Improved at quaterback. Corner back. Receivers, running backs. Special teams a big ? !
September 11th, 2021 at 6:39:55 PM
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Quote: MDawgWell, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
link to original post
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
A few thoughts:
1) This promotion does not let you, but just for general awareness, the best EV for promo chips/bets where you don’t keep the bet, just the winnings, is on long shots. So the biggest underdog ML if they let you.
2) Axel’s point is valid that you could but the promo bet on Packers -3.5 and place a cash bet on Saints +3.5 and lock up a guaranteed amount of money. Boring.
3) Is your bet on the current lines at the book or the lines on that piece of paper? If latter, then just go to the sports book on Sunday and place the promo bet on whichever current line deviates the most from the paper line you were offered. For example if the current line tomorrow is Packers minus -4.5 and you can bet the -3.5 line, that’s EV. Note that there’s a Wizard page to help estimate how much EV depending on whether key numbers like 3, 4 and 7 are crossed.
4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.
5) Bet under 41.5 in the Giants/Broncos game.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 11th, 2021 at 6:42:55 PM
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Quote: MDawgWell, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
link to original post
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
Winners don't have to know everything MDawg.
Winners don't know everything MDawg!
Oh yeah, I forgot, how come the cage cashiers must ask. "Sorry sir, before I am able to cash those chips you have to tell me how you were able to win them".
And also, oh never mind, that's enough.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert.
*Certified EMT
*Certified Company Firearms Instructor.
*Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications.
*Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert.
*Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess.
*Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club.
*Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members.
*Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer
*Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
September 11th, 2021 at 7:07:51 PM
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For pro sports betting you don’t need to know anything. The lines are nearly dead on accurate…you will win 50% of -110 bets over the long termQuote: MDawgWell, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
link to original post
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
There are some very small imbalances, like betting NFL dogs, but you probably need to bet thousands of games before realizing that effect
It’s all about making that GTA
September 11th, 2021 at 7:29:30 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: MDawgWell, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
link to original post
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
A few thoughts:
1) This promotion does not let you, but just for general awareness, the best EV for promo chips/bets where you don’t keep the bet, just the winnings, is on long shots. So the biggest underdog ML if they let you.
2) Axel’s point is valid that you could but the promo bet on Packers -3.5 and place a cash bet on Saints +3.5 and lock up a guaranteed amount of money. Boring.
3) Is your bet on the current lines at the book or the lines on that piece of paper? If latter, then just go to the sports book on Sunday and place the promo bet on whichever current line deviates the most from the paper line you were offered. For example if the current line tomorrow is Packers minus -4.5 and you can bet the -3.5 line, that’s EV. Note that there’s a Wizard page to help estimate how much EV depending on whether key numbers like 3, 4 and 7 are crossed.
4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.
5) Bet under 41.5 in the Giants/Broncos game.link to original post
5) You like that better than straight win for Green Bay?
4) Is a good point.
3) These were the lines as of this morning. Might be different by tomorrow.
Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 11, 2021
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 7:29:51 PM
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I didn't even advance in the BlackJack tournament. I lost every hand in a row until I was blown out. I lost hands where others won. 😄 I should have been flat bet minimum betting, might have given me a chance to advance.
But in the big Baccarat tournament I did advance, will continue tomorrow.
But in the big Baccarat tournament I did advance, will continue tomorrow.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 7:49:29 PM
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You bring nonsense into a thread that actually has some merit and members can help guide him.Quote: Marcusclark66Quote: MDawgWell, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
link to original post
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
Winners don't have to know everything MDawg.
Winners don't know everything MDawg!
Oh yeah, I forgot, how come the cage cashiers must ask. "Sorry sir, before I am able to cash those chips you have to tell me how you were able to win them".
And also, oh never mind, that's enough.link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 11th, 2021 at 7:51:11 PM
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Duplicate.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 11th, 2021 at 7:55:47 PM
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Quote: MDawgQuote: unJonQuote: MDawgWell, as REDietz is fond of saying (about table games), "I know next to nothing."
link to original post
As I will have to say, "I know next to nothing" (about sports betting).
A few thoughts:
1) This promotion does not let you, but just for general awareness, the best EV for promo chips/bets where you don’t keep the bet, just the winnings, is on long shots. So the biggest underdog ML if they let you.
2) Axel’s point is valid that you could but the promo bet on Packers -3.5 and place a cash bet on Saints +3.5 and lock up a guaranteed amount of money. Boring.
3) Is your bet on the current lines at the book or the lines on that piece of paper? If latter, then just go to the sports book on Sunday and place the promo bet on whichever current line deviates the most from the paper line you were offered. For example if the current line tomorrow is Packers minus -4.5 and you can bet the -3.5 line, that’s EV. Note that there’s a Wizard page to help estimate how much EV depending on whether key numbers like 3, 4 and 7 are crossed.
4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.
5) Bet under 41.5 in the Giants/Broncos game.link to original post
5) You like that better than straight win for Green Bay?
4) Is a good point.
3) These were the lines as of this morning. Might be different by tomorrow.link to original post
5) I do personally. But I don’t claim to be a winning NFL bettor so take it with a big grain of salt.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 11th, 2021 at 9:06:37 PM
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I understand. What you all are getting at, which makes perfect sense, is that since it a freeroll bet to just go with what might make some actual money versus a pittance.
Not necessarily that one bet might win versus another, but that might as well try to get something out of this.
AxelWolf''s idea is good too, in a different way.
Not necessarily that one bet might win versus another, but that might as well try to get something out of this.
AxelWolf''s idea is good too, in a different way.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 12th, 2021 at 5:20:22 AM
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You can always hedge for less, lock up some free money, and keep some of the action to sweat the game.Quote: MDawgI understand. What you all are getting at, which makes perfect sense, is that since it a freeroll bet to just go with what might make some actual money versus a pittance.
link to original post
Not necessarily that one bet might win versus another, but that might as well try to get something out of this.
AxelWolf''s idea is good too, in a different way.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 12th, 2021 at 10:38:40 AM
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Booked it. Don't have time to hedge it or think about it further.
All these Bacc players have free tickets too they were asking me what to do as they know less about sports betting than I do! I gave them both the Green Bay Packers and UnJon's suggestion of the under on the Giants game.
All these Bacc players have free tickets too they were asking me what to do as they know less about sports betting than I do! I gave them both the Green Bay Packers and UnJon's suggestion of the under on the Giants game.
Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 12, 2021
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 12th, 2021 at 10:53:55 AM
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Good luck.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 12th, 2021 at 11:53:56 AM
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What a great deal…at $1,869.57 the casino is giving you the breakage since $1000 * 215/115 = $1,869.565217
It’s all about making that GTA
September 12th, 2021 at 2:08:41 PM
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So far, UnJon's suggested bet looks better than the one I made. Green Bay down by 10 I just looked.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 12th, 2021 at 2:14:44 PM
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Here's how the Baccarat tournament ended. At least for me.
I made it to the semi finals. One more advancement - and I would have landed on the final money table.
I was the chip leader on the final (15/15) hand. I had been winning almost every hand, but everyone was betting conservatively, mostly the minimum, so my chip lead was only something like 60K ahead of the bottom player, and only 20K ahead of the 2nd place chip count player.
Final hand, secret bet, everyone bet the same side! I did it conservatively, wagering only about 30K chips, and one other player bet 5K only, everyone else went all in. I just didn't think they would be so reckless. At that point I was hoping for the other side (the side no one bet on) to win, but it landed as expected...everyone won the last hand, and those reckless crazy players doubled up and I went up only what I bet, about 30K, so I did not advance. If I had gone anywhere near to all in, I would have made it onwards to the money table.
Just goes to show that unless the chip differences are really dramatic, going into the the final secret bet of a tournament, anything might happen!
I made it to the semi finals. One more advancement - and I would have landed on the final money table.
I was the chip leader on the final (15/15) hand. I had been winning almost every hand, but everyone was betting conservatively, mostly the minimum, so my chip lead was only something like 60K ahead of the bottom player, and only 20K ahead of the 2nd place chip count player.
Final hand, secret bet, everyone bet the same side! I did it conservatively, wagering only about 30K chips, and one other player bet 5K only, everyone else went all in. I just didn't think they would be so reckless. At that point I was hoping for the other side (the side no one bet on) to win, but it landed as expected...everyone won the last hand, and those reckless crazy players doubled up and I went up only what I bet, about 30K, so I did not advance. If I had gone anywhere near to all in, I would have made it onwards to the money table.
Just goes to show that unless the chip differences are really dramatic, going into the the final secret bet of a tournament, anything might happen!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 12th, 2021 at 5:04:45 PM
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Quote: MDawgBooked it. Don't have time to hedge it or think about it further.
link to original post
All these Bacc players have free tickets too they were asking me what to do as they know less about sports betting than I do! I gave them both the Green Bay Packers and UnJon's suggestion of the under on the Giants game.
Your wager on the Packers lost,; the Packers were crushed by 38-3. I also picked the Packers to cover the spread in the NFL Picks contest that Mission is running. I expected Aaron Rodgers to pick apart the Saints secondary, which I thought was very weak. So much analysis, so much blunder.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
September 12th, 2021 at 11:31:37 PM
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From what I understand, many of the teams expected to win today failed to perform.
In any case, UnJon's pick was the big man - the winner. Mine lost. (Now, it wasn't actually my pick, it was a pick suggested to me but in any case, my acting on that suggestion was a LOSER.)
In any case, UnJon's pick was the big man - the winner. Mine lost. (Now, it wasn't actually my pick, it was a pick suggested to me but in any case, my acting on that suggestion was a LOSER.)
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 13th, 2021 at 7:14:06 AM
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Quote: MDawgFrom what I understand, many of the teams expected to win today failed to perform.
link to original post
In any case, UnJon's pick was the big man - the winner. Mine lost. (Now, it wasn't actually my pick, it was a pick suggested to me but in any case, my acting on that suggestion was a LOSER.)
Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn’t.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 13th, 2021 at 8:59:20 AM
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Quote: unJonQuote: MDawgFrom what I understand, many of the teams expected to win today failed to perform.
link to original post
In any case, UnJon's pick was the big man - the winner. Mine lost. (Now, it wasn't actually my pick, it was a pick suggested to me but in any case, my acting on that suggestion was a LOSER.)
Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn’t.link to original post
What do you mean sometimes it doesn't work out? MDawg always wins.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
September 13th, 2021 at 11:21:01 AM
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Quote: DRichlink to original post
What do you mean sometimes it doesn't work out? MDawg always wins.
I can't tell if this is a friendly ribbing or a jab.
Either way, MDawg has reported at least one loss.
Move along, nothing to see here.
May the cards fall in your favor.
September 14th, 2021 at 10:06:01 AM
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Quote: unJon
4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.link to original post
That would have worked too! and was quite a game!
Raiders really came up from behind to make it happen. We know one of the players and support his foundation, which was exciting to see him do well in the game as well.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 14th, 2021 at 11:24:08 AM
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Quote: FastEddieI like the Broncos a lot. #1 Defense in the red zone last 2 years. Get Von Miller back. Improved at quaterback. Corner back. Receivers, running backs. Special teams a big ? !
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You can lead a horse to water but you can not make him bet ?
September 14th, 2021 at 11:38:25 AM
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Quote: MDawgQuote: unJon
4) Bet the game you are attending for whomever you want to root for. The promo bet will juice the rooting creating psychological EV.link to original post
That would have worked too! and was quite a game!
Raiders really came up from behind to make it happen. We know one of the players and support his foundation, which was exciting to see him do well in the game as well.link to original post
It was a great game. Much better than the Giants game I attended the day before.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 29th, 2021 at 9:14:34 PM
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I have a couple of big poker tournaments coming up - free entry, very high prizes.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
November 7th, 2021 at 10:23:56 AM
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I was eliminated from a poker tournament well before the final table. I had some good hands early on but I got a string of cold cards where I just had to fold them with even anteing and then I folded an 87 off suit where the flop was 456 and two other players bet heavily all the way and my 87 would have been the nuts. That was one mistake. I made two other mistakes staying in the hand with top mid pair (jack). Losing those two hands were not bad beats, I was outplayed. My poker skills are rusty.
I did pick up one big pot with top pair where someone tried to bluff me.
Anyway, I’ll be in another big poker tournament soon enough and these are free entry tournaments and I do not rebuy if I lose my chips just move on to the more (for me) profitable actual tables at the casino.
I did pick up one big pot with top pair where someone tried to bluff me.
Anyway, I’ll be in another big poker tournament soon enough and these are free entry tournaments and I do not rebuy if I lose my chips just move on to the more (for me) profitable actual tables at the casino.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
November 18th, 2021 at 7:14:28 PM
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MDawg, from what I have observed over the years, for whatever reasons, sunglasses and hoodies and face piercings or multiple ear piercings are kinda prerequisite to winning at tournaments.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert.
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*Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
November 19th, 2021 at 8:23:13 AM
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You may well be right, in that Don Cheadle won second place in the tournament I was in recently!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
January 17th, 2022 at 9:00:23 AM
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I made a mistake at a BLACKJACK tournament a week ago and wanted to run it by everyone, to see if you all agree. Free entry, $300K prizes split among the top 5.
I made it all the way to the final (money table) round. Going into the final hand, in the final round, the chip count was:
Me, #1: 171100
#2: 113000
#3: 71000
#4: 40000
#5: 30000
All five of us were going to get something, but the deal we had made in advance at the table was that #1 and #2 would split the total of their prizes, so ending up in #1 or #2 was paramount. (#3, #4 and #5 would split their totals.)
So, given that all that mattered in this scenario was ending up in either #1 or #2 position:
I looked at the #3 player and figured couldn’t reach me even doubling chips, so I bet only 1000, the minimum. #4 and #5 were no threat they couldn’t catch the #1 or #2 position. I didn’t care about #2 figured #2 could be the one splitting the big prizes with me.
The moment I made the secret wager for the final round I realized I had made a mistake. If #3 hit a blackjack, that would bring #3 to 177500 and that would beat me, whether I won or lost my minimum 1000 wager. I had to assume that #2 was going to bet a fair amount, which did, and #2 got a hard 12 and even doubled down on it after saw that #3 had a blackjack, to give #2 a chance to get past my guaranteed total of 170100. (#2 survived the hard 12 double with a 3.)
So, what I should have done, is bet 6500. That way, I obtained an additional, second chance to win if I won the hand after a #3 player blackjack. And even if I lost the 6500, still I’d beat #3 unless he got a blackjack. In any case, risking 6500 versus 1000 had no downside because it would come into play, matter, only if #3 got a blackjack, in which case that extra 5500 bet, if I won the hand, would take me past #3’s chip total.
Sure enough, dealer busted on the final round, and the final chip tally was:
#2 – a lot, I didn’t keep track, but #2 came in first place.
#3 – 177500
#1 (me) – 172100
Because of my mistake I missed out on a chance to reach the second place position. This is not just in hindsight – it was a statistical miscalculation.
I made it all the way to the final (money table) round. Going into the final hand, in the final round, the chip count was:
Me, #1: 171100
#2: 113000
#3: 71000
#4: 40000
#5: 30000
All five of us were going to get something, but the deal we had made in advance at the table was that #1 and #2 would split the total of their prizes, so ending up in #1 or #2 was paramount. (#3, #4 and #5 would split their totals.)
So, given that all that mattered in this scenario was ending up in either #1 or #2 position:
I looked at the #3 player and figured couldn’t reach me even doubling chips, so I bet only 1000, the minimum. #4 and #5 were no threat they couldn’t catch the #1 or #2 position. I didn’t care about #2 figured #2 could be the one splitting the big prizes with me.
The moment I made the secret wager for the final round I realized I had made a mistake. If #3 hit a blackjack, that would bring #3 to 177500 and that would beat me, whether I won or lost my minimum 1000 wager. I had to assume that #2 was going to bet a fair amount, which did, and #2 got a hard 12 and even doubled down on it after saw that #3 had a blackjack, to give #2 a chance to get past my guaranteed total of 170100. (#2 survived the hard 12 double with a 3.)
So, what I should have done, is bet 6500. That way, I obtained an additional, second chance to win if I won the hand after a #3 player blackjack. And even if I lost the 6500, still I’d beat #3 unless he got a blackjack. In any case, risking 6500 versus 1000 had no downside because it would come into play, matter, only if #3 got a blackjack, in which case that extra 5500 bet, if I won the hand, would take me past #3’s chip total.
Sure enough, dealer busted on the final round, and the final chip tally was:
#2 – a lot, I didn’t keep track, but #2 came in first place.
#3 – 177500
#1 (me) – 172100
Because of my mistake I missed out on a chance to reach the second place position. This is not just in hindsight – it was a statistical miscalculation.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
January 17th, 2022 at 9:29:55 AM
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I agree, well done to figure out your mistake and learn from it. Third place has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain if #3-#5 are equally chopping the sum of their prizes anyway, and it would seem that he correctly figured he should put it all out there due to not knowing how #2 was going to bet.
Honestly, unless #3 is at least better than average at mental math, it might not even have occurred to him that he could pass you (without you making some sort of substantial bet and losing). I should assume that you have the capacity for mental math that you would be able to figure out what #3's maximum final total is assuming a natural, or even round down to $70,000 and figure that's $175000 if that's easier, which is more than you have. After that, take the remaining thousand and multiply by 2.5 to get $2500 added, add that to the $175000 and arrive at a maximum possible of $177,500...that would be my mental process, anyway.
I'm not saying that I would have made the correct decision myself, just that the mental math of $71,000 * 2.5 is relatively easy for me; there are people here who could verify this.
I think it's all about how you relate to #3, so I don't think you did anything wrong to basically disregard #2. You just want to make sure to bet enough that, if you win the hand, #3 can't touch you even if he hits a natural.
Honestly, unless #3 is at least better than average at mental math, it might not even have occurred to him that he could pass you (without you making some sort of substantial bet and losing). I should assume that you have the capacity for mental math that you would be able to figure out what #3's maximum final total is assuming a natural, or even round down to $70,000 and figure that's $175000 if that's easier, which is more than you have. After that, take the remaining thousand and multiply by 2.5 to get $2500 added, add that to the $175000 and arrive at a maximum possible of $177,500...that would be my mental process, anyway.
I'm not saying that I would have made the correct decision myself, just that the mental math of $71,000 * 2.5 is relatively easy for me; there are people here who could verify this.
I think it's all about how you relate to #3, so I don't think you did anything wrong to basically disregard #2. You just want to make sure to bet enough that, if you win the hand, #3 can't touch you even if he hits a natural.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
