Possible baccarrat advantage with promotion

So my local casino is offering a promotion this month where when playing EZ baccarrat, when a bet is placed on Banker and Banker wins with a 6, the bettor gets to draw a pulltab like card that is worth at the least $10 and at the most $100.

In EZ baccarrat, bets on either banker or player are paid in full with no commission. The only house edge is when Banker hand wins with a 7 (a dragon), then banker bets push.

A side bet can be placed on the dragon paying 40-1.

My thought is to bring a partner to the table. We divy up say $200 and each place minimum $10 bets. We always place offsetting bets. So if I bet banker, my partner bets player and vice versa. The only hand we can lose money on is a dragon (Player bet loses), so one of us bets $1 on the dragon side bet every hand. If dragon occurs, then it is a net $30 gain since the dragon side bet pays $40 and Player bet loses $10. As a dragon is expected to occur about once every 42 hands, I would expect to lose maybe $10 over 3 hours of play without the promotion.

Now taking the promotion into account, I would expect that the Banker hand will win with a six on average once per hour. Every time this happens, we win at least $10 and possibly more. Over 3 hours time, I would hope to win $30 and possibly up to $100 which my partner and I would then split.

Now I realize this is peanuts, but I enjoy just sitting at the table listening and taking part in the banter. If I can make a few relatively risk free bucks while I am there, then all the better.

Does anyone see a flaw in my reasoning?

Quote: ddeder

The only hand we can lose money on is a dragon (Player bet loses), so one of us bets $1 on the dragon side bet every hand. If dragon occurs, then it is a net $30 gain since the dragon side bet pays $40 and Player bet loses $10. As a dragon is expected to occur about once every 42 hands, I would expect to lose maybe $10 over 3 hours of play without the promotion.

I haven't fully analyzed your math, but my first reaction would be to forget about the dragon bet. As you said, the only house edge is that the banker bet pushes when banker wins with a 7. By betting the dragon, you seem to be trading an initially -EV situation (banker push on 7) for worse -EV situation (getting paid 40-1 on a roughly 44-1 shot). You are expecting the dragon to occur every 42 hands, but according to the Wizard it's about 1 every 44.4 hands. (/games/ez-baccarat/)

So you're going to lose $43.40 before winning $40.00 on the side bet, and you still lose the $10.00 player bet. So the dragon is essentially costing you $13.40 instead of $10.00 every time it occurs.

There's some useful info of chances of winning with various totals at https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/side-bets/cow-cow/ and the Dragon bet at https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/5/
Banker winning with any 6 = 5.39%
Banker winning with any 7 = 7.69%
Banker winning with 3-card 7 = 2.25%

As has been said, it's best not to hedge your bets with a dragon bet.

Your system loses $10 2.25% of the time (I'm guessing it's a 3-card 7 not any 7).
If indeed you win an extra $10 (or more) on a Winning banker 6 then this would win at least an extra $10 every 5.39%. If so this offsets the loss of 2.25%.


However if they are saying "instead of winning $10 you pick a pulltab that might win more than $10", then you need to find out the chances of winning anything over $10.

Another thing to check is whether it's only winning with a 3-card 6 that pays a bonus.

Thanks for the replies. I see your points about not betting on the dragon.

Any banker 6 win (2 or 3 card) rewards me with a pulltab worth at least $10 (assuming I have a bet on banker).

That being said, it seems that just placing offsetting bets (1 unit on banker, 1 unit on player) would result in a very slight advantage for me.

So what I need to do, is find someone who is really bored to be my partner, locate a table with no one else playing on it and ask the dealer to deal hands as fast as possible. :)

Quote: ddeder

So my local casino is offering a promotion this month where when playing EZ baccarrat, when a bet is placed on Banker and Banker wins with a 6, the bettor gets to draw a pulltab like card that is worth at the least $10 and at the most $100.

In EZ baccarrat, bets on either banker or player are paid in full with no commission. The only house edge is when Banker hand wins with a 7 (a dragon), then banker bets push.

A side bet can be placed on the dragon paying 40-1.

My thought is to bring a partner to the table. We divy up say $200 and each place minimum $10 bets. We always place offsetting bets. So if I bet banker, my partner bets player and vice versa. The only hand we can lose money on is a dragon (Player bet loses), so one of us bets $1 on the dragon side bet every hand. If dragon occurs, then it is a net $30 gain since the dragon side bet pays $40 and Player bet loses $10. As a dragon is expected to occur about once every 42 hands, I would expect to lose maybe $10 over 3 hours of play without the promotion.

Now taking the promotion into account, I would expect that the Banker hand will win with a six on average once per hour. Every time this happens, we win at least $10 and possibly more. Over 3 hours time, I would hope to win $30 and possibly up to $100 which my partner and I would then split.

Now I realize this is peanuts, but I enjoy just sitting at the table listening and taking part in the banter. If I can make a few relatively risk free bucks while I am there, then all the better.

Does anyone see a flaw in my reasoning?

What is minimum bet on BANKER(or PLAYER) ?

Minimum bet is $10.

Quote: ddeder

Minimum bet is $10.

What is the average value for a pulltab ?

Nobody knows. Minimum is $10. I pulled 3 last time I played and got 2 $10 tickets and 1 $25 ticket. Obviously, most are $10 tickets.

There is no reason to hedge in a promotion like this. Just bet banker all day at whatever minimum qualifies you for a pulltab. Having an accomplice bet the other way just

1) Costs you EV
2) Gives the casino a chance to see what you're doing and take action against you
3) Gives the casino a chance to see what you're doing and punt the promotion

Only consider sacrificing EV to reduce variance if bankroll requirements dictate. If you have to bet $500 on the passline for +$25 EV/outcome, then great ... assemble a team and try to offset your bets without being noticed. For $10 baccarat ... no way.

Quote: sabre

There is no reason to hedge in a promotion like this. Just bet banker all day at whatever minimum qualifies you for a pulltab. Having an accomplice bet the other way just

1) Costs you EV
2) Gives the casino a chance to see what you're doing and take action against you
3) Gives the casino a chance to see what you're doing and punt the promotion

Only consider sacrificing EV to reduce variance if bankroll requirements dictate. If you have to bet $500 on the passline for +$25 EV/outcome, then great ... assemble a team and try to offset your bets without being noticed. For $10 baccarat ... no way.

Good post.