Any Coders here? Need to analyze Baccarat patterns?
Quote: MDawgIn each post I have agreed with you! But I've also just added that there is more to the equation....
Although I lean heavily on math and simulations, I totally agree with you that the picture is much more complicated than what we believe. Part of the confusion is caused by some strategies yield distributions that have very high variance.
For example, in EZBaccarat, if I bet $10 on Panda8 + $10 on Banker and set a stop loss of -$200 and a win goal of $100 on a starting bankroll of $1000 and flat units of $10, I will get a negative EV, as expected. It comes out to about -$18.76 per shoe and an average deal of around 17 hands per shoe.
Around 52% of the time, I will hit the stop loss and end up around $800 (in 23 deals). The losses are heavily concentrated around $800. As we go from $800 up to $1080, the distribution is flat near zero as we use up the entire shoe and essentially get nowhere. Most of the gains are spread evenly between $1080 and $1330, the tail being fatter around $1000 and almost 0 around $1330.
So what will happen if I play this strategy? I will lose $200 most of the time, but around 47% of the time, I will get crazy adrenaline spikes of gains between $1080 and $1330. Most of the time, the stop loss or win goal will be hit within 23 draws and 17 draws respectively. I can imagine this can lead to some exciting play, as within a given session, you are losing like 48% of the time, pushing around 44% (Banker wins, Panda8 loses), and blowing up with the Panda8 around 8% of the time (in winning sessions). For an EV of -$18.76 per shoe, that's not a bad entertainment value... ...but you will have to suffer through lengthy periods of bleeding.
The mathematicians are right - you cannot squeeze a positive EV strategy out of bets that are all negative EV (because the EV of your strategy is essentially a linear combination of the EV of the underlying bets - this is why the #1 rule of gaming is, don't give your customers any possibility of a positive EV bet). Grinding strategies will have a tighter distribution of returns (but still negative EV) whereas more exciting strategies will have a greater distribution of returns (and still have negative EV).
As I see it, if you can find a strategy with enough variance, commiserate with your personal greed + risk tolerance, some fun can be had at the tables.
Now the question of patterns is interesting. I'd like to see what kind of distributions we get when I run a streak following betting strategy through an RNG simulation, but I also want to see what happens if I use samples from actual past shoes. If there's a significant difference between the two, it may be due to shuffling inefficiencies. Exploitable or not is yet to be determined.
IMHO, most arguments about "consistency of winnings" come down to the number of samples. For low variance strategies, it already takes many, many shoes to reach that negative EV. For high variance strategies, it actually takes even more samples to reach that negative EV (could easily be longer than our lifetimes). Given enough samples, all strategies have negative EV, but the truth is, none of us really have that kind of lifespan or time to spend in the casinos. High variance strategies are particularly tricky because over the short-run, they can actually look like winning strategies. So from a statistical perspective, anyone can "got lucky" over the short run. How long is a short or long run depends on the variance of returns.
Pattern is everything.
"The present is the key to the past and the past is the key to the future"
By knowing the pattern of the past,we get the key to se the pattern of the future.
By knowing the pattern, we need no statistic and no need PROBABILITY.
So, Just make as simple code as possible.
The code for B is 1 and 2. The code for P is 3 and 4. The code for Tie, will explain letter.
Any B, you just put no 1 and 2. For example if you have B, the code is 1. if you have BB, the code is 2. If you have BBB, the code is 1, and so forth.
Any P, you put code 3 and 4. P=3; PP=4; PPP=3,PPP=4
That is about the code (1 and 2 for B's , 3 and 4 for P's)
There are only two pattern , Streak/Paralel AND Zigzag.
for your example, B PPP BB P BB P BBBBBBB PP BB PPP B PPPPPPPPPPPP BB P B P BB P, the pattern has to be arranged as follow
1 343 12 3 12 3 12121212 34 12 343 1 343434343434 12 3 1 3 12 3
Now you have to arrange the combination IN 3 mATRIX using excell as follow.
Matrix 1 is combination of 1&2 vs 3& 4
Matrix 2 is combination of 1&3 VS 2&4
Matrix 3 is combination of 1&4 VS 2&3.
From this 3 combination of matrices, you will find which Matrrices has pattern of streak and which one has pattern of zig zag.
Here how you arrange ther matrices (WOILA!!!) and see there is a clear pattern and common denominator that make easier your life to make a decision.
R C 1 3 1 2 1 2
e o 2 4 3 4 4 3
s d
u e
t M1 M1 M2 M2 M3 M3
B = 1 1 1 1
P = 3 1 2 1
P = 4 2 1 1
P = 3 3 1 1
B = 1 1 2 1
B = 2 2 1 1
P = 3 1 1 2
B = 1 1 2 1
B = 2 2 1 1
P = 3 1 1 2
B = 1 1 2 1
B = 2 2 1 1
B = 1 3 1 1
B = 2 4 1 1
B = 1 5 1 1
B = 2 6 1 1
B = 1 7 1 1
B = 2 8 1 1
P = 3 1 1 2
P = 4 2 1 1
B = 1 1 1 2
B = 2 2 1 1
P = 3 1 1 2
P = 4 2 1 1
P = 3 3 1 1
B = 1 1 2 1
P = 3 1 3 1
P = 4 2 1 1
P = 3 3 1 1
P = 4 4 1 1
P = 3 5 1 1
P = 4 6 1 1
P = 3 7 1 1
P = 4 8 1 1
P = 3 9 1 1
P = 4 10 1 1
P = 3 11 1 1
P = 4 12 1 1
B = 1 1 1 2
B = 2 2 1 1
P = 3 1 1 2
B = 1 1 2 1
P = 3 1 3 1
B = 1 1 4 1
B = 2 2 1 1
P = 3 1 1 2
Hope this can help. Good luck!
anyone know how to attach an excell file? it will be easier and clearer.
Regards.
Quote: back2backIt is too long to write the matrices using formating codes.
anyone know how to attach an excell file? it will be easier and clearer.
It's easier for me to insert the formatting code (using a text editor like TextPad, you can do a global replace of spaces with "[/dat][dat]")
| Result/Code | M1 | M2 | M3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| B = 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| P = 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| B = 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| P = 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| B = 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| B = 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| B = 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P = 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
For those of you wondering what it shows, the first column shows the winner (P or B) along with his code (a run of Ps alternates between 1 and 2; a run of Bs alternates between 3 and 4), the second shows the current "run" of consecutive codes 1 & 2 or 3 & 4, the third shows runs of codes 1 & 3 or 2 & 4, and the fourth shows runs of codes 1 & 4 or 2 & 3
win loss statements In and of themselves are meaningless. You could show me a win loss statement from five casinos that are winners but not the other five casinos that are all losers. If you have 10 years of win loss statements that are matched up and backed up by your tax returns, then we might have something believable.Quote: MDawgI have the win/loss statements to prove it. But even those don't prove anything necessarily, maybe I was just lucky for ten years straight, with both BJ and Baccarat.
The problem with counting at BJ is they end up either kicking you out, or, as they did to me, effectively banning by limiting my spread on bets to 3X my previous hand.
Also, counting isn't always what makes a BJ player win, you may be getting 12s and 13s all night long and keep perfect count of the deck and bet accordingly and still lose. A strong intuition of when to jump the bet on BJ (or any gambling) may rake in far more chips than careful grinding and counting. There is no count that justifies jumping the BJ bet 100X from your prior bet, and yet I used to do that all the time and win consistently.
Same with poker, you may get bad beats that have nothing to do with the math. The same poker players no longer always end up in the winner's circle nowadays some random kid comes out of nowhere and beats them all. Some of the "best" poker plays have been losing their arses for the past two years straight. Whatever happened to Nick the Greek? So much for your theory that all that matters is skill.
Everything you're posting, with each post, is becoming more and more clear is based on just "theory." I don't dispute the theories, but there is much more to these games than just the numbers. A successful gambler feels when to jump the bet, and it has more to do with than just the math.
If you don't jump the bet over time you will lose, so unless you're playing to lose, you have to rely on something more than just math. You also may not be just gambling all the time. In and out after a run, abort if it's not happening, the times when things are going your way won't be every time.
So, I still have to learn a lot.
I try to make an analogy that will make it clear to system-chaser.
Start with my definition of "CHAoS"
Chaos always represent as patterns that we do not understand-----yet
but once we understand the pattern, it is not chaos anymore
The analogy is our life. Many times we are in chaos situation and make us depress.
but once we see that actually there are certain patterns in that chaos situation, we can find the answer of the situation.
500 years ago many died because of flu, and every time someone got flu,their families and themselves in chaos situation. The probability of recover very small, less than 5 %. But after scientist discover the roots of the problem, flu is not anymore a threat and the recovery rate is almost 100%. There is no chaos anymore and people do not talk about probability how many percent we can survive from flu. The probabily or uncertainty become certainty.
The same with gambling. Since we do not know the behavious/pattern, we are in chaos situation and we start talk about probabilty.
Baccarat and roulette shows similarity in the sense that their pattern is not difficult to recognize. The key is how to read it. o nce you know how to read it, gamling is not about probabilty anymore, but become certainty.
For the last 50 years I made research about chaos on Earth. Geologically speaking, all chaos can be reconstructed. James Hutton said:The present is the key to the past, and the past is the key to the future". This conept apply to almost everything,including gamble.
Regards
do you know how to attach an excell file?
I just want to add information, so people can understand how to read the pattern clearly.
1. Under M1, should add 2 sub column and label as 12 and
2. Under M2, add 2 sub column and label as 13 and 24
3. Under M3, add 2 sub column and label as 14 and 23
Total inluding result/code), there should be 7 columns
by doing this, there will be 6 column showing a mutual related patterns, common denominator.
Regards,
Quote: MDawgAll of what you say is mathematically sound, but anyone who has won consistently at Bacc. knows there is much more to it than dreamt of in your philosophy.
There is no "system" to winning at Bacc. - either you have it in you, or you don't. It's useless to try to discuss this with a non-believer, because the non-believers have never won consistently at any sort of gambling.
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This is interesting, the discussion about patterns in baccarat in this thread. Before my other thread got canceled somebody suggested I should start a thread about patterns and baccarat and I'm thinking about doing that. I know baccarat could be exploited if there are patterns going on when you happen to sit down, I've done it many times and I've seen others do it. Problem is only one stream, banker/player. I've heard on other gambling forums that there are other patterns to follow but nobody ever comes clean about it and I've asked. Maybe I will start a thread..
Quote: EvenBobThis is interesting, the discussion about patterns in baccarat in this thread. Before my other thread got canceled somebody suggested I should start a thread about patterns and baccarat and I'm thinking about doing that. I know baccarat could be exploited if there are patterns going on when you happen to sit down, I've done it many times and I've seen others do it. Problem is only one stream, banker/player. I've heard on other gambling forums that there are other patterns to follow but nobody ever comes clean about it and I've asked. Maybe I will start a thread..
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Odd that you bumped this thread 3 1/2 years later, but anyway....
You can look for patterns in each individual road map as well as the bead plate, individually or in combination.
