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zeldastrike321
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April 10th, 2018 at 11:32:13 PM permalink
When the shoe starts, the first hand comes out banker or player, whatever it is I bet on the winning side for the second hand and continue, hoping for streaks to happen. I continue betting the same amount (1 unit or minimum bet) until I lose and then I switch to the opposite winning side. To recuperate my losses, I double my bet martingale, until I win again, which would require a winning streak of at least two in a row. The key point is that it is based on that I cannot go 7 times without winning. On the seventh bet, I must win or I bust. Now I've observed many shoes and I've never seen it alternating between banker and player more than 6 times, although if it does it is a huge loss, but it is a win a mass majority of the time. Basically, it is a profit of usually more than 30 units per shoe. Is this a good betting strategy because so far I haven't placed any bets but just have been observing shoes online and at real live casinos?
Last edited by: zeldastrike321 on Apr 11, 2018
PokerGrinder
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April 10th, 2018 at 11:50:33 PM permalink
Welcome to the forum Zelda.
No it isnít. Play baccarat for fun, no system can beat the game.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. ó Amarillo Slim Preston
zeldastrike321
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April 11th, 2018 at 12:19:11 AM permalink
you haven't explained why it isn't because although it cannot beat the game, because the 7th loss is possible to happen, it is unlikely from the shoes I've observed, how often do you see in any given shoe BPBPBPB? I mostly see BBBBPBPPPPPPBPBBBBB etc? why bet against a streak?
PokerGrinder
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April 11th, 2018 at 12:57:04 AM permalink
House edge. There I explained it. Every bet you make carries a house edge. No matter how you you bet or in what order or system you canít get rid of the house edge.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. ó Amarillo Slim Preston
OnceDear
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April 11th, 2018 at 2:09:44 AM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

you haven't explained why it isn't because although it cannot beat the game, because the 7th loss is possible to happen, it is unlikely from the shoes I've observed, how often do you see in any given shoe BPBPBPB? I mostly see BBBBPBPPPPPPBPBBBBB etc? why bet against a streak?


Welcome new user.

I'll keep this short, and I'll shout!. STREAKS MEAN NOTHING
Whatever set of x hands you just saw DOES NOT PREDICT THE NEXT HAND
If you martingale, you will PROBABLY WIN A SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY!
If you don't win, you will CERTAINLY LOSE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF MONEY
If you want to use Martingale to win a significant amount of money you will have to repeat the MARTY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF TIMES
If you repeat the Marty, your chance of that ONE MASSIVE LOSS IS NOT AT ALL UNLIKELY
EVERY BET YOU PUT ON THE TABLE IS SUBJECT TO THE HOUSE EDGE. THE MORE YOU PUT DOWN - THE MORE YOU LOSE

All you are doing with a Marty style of wagering is constructing a wager where you probably win peanuts {granted] but put your massive bankroll at risk repeatedly.

MARTINGALE IS JUST A FUN WAY TO LOSE MONEY
If you try to ask, in umpteen different ways, why your system is flawed, you will possibly meet hostility here. Don't take it personally. No-one here sees any financial value to Martingale. It doesn't matter whether you bet with streaks, against streaks, baccarat, roulette, blackjack. We all KNOW how dumb Martingale is, and some of us get sick of rewriting the same explanation time after time. It was nonsense 300 years ago, it always has been and always will be.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Apr 11, 2018
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Venthus
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April 11th, 2018 at 2:41:37 AM permalink
As I came across elsewhere, the only time that Martingale is a good, serious option is when you need a fairly small amount, and losing it all doesn't make things much worse than not achieving your goal. And the example given was trying to afford getting smuggled out of a war zone.
PokerGrinder
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April 11th, 2018 at 2:44:57 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

As I came across elsewhere, the only time that Martingale is a good, serious option is when you need a fairly small amount, and losing it all doesn't make things much worse than not achieving your goal. And the example given was trying to afford getting smuggled out of a war zone.


Hahaha that got weird real quick. You win the internet for today 🤣
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. ó Amarillo Slim Preston
GlenG
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April 11th, 2018 at 2:52:14 AM permalink
My favorite betting strategy is a half-dollar coin
mustangsally
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April 11th, 2018 at 8:49:11 AM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

Is this a good betting strategy because so far I haven't placed any bets but just have been observing shoes online and at real live casinos?

I say it is good where good equals having fun
Quote: zeldastrike321

because the 7th loss is possible to happen, it is unlikely from the shoes I've observed, how often do you see in any given shoe BPBPBPB?

for some reason I looked at 1 million 8 deck shoes and have this type of info.
for BPBPBPB
 times   freq  freq/100
--------------------------------------------
0 656214 65.62%
1 286073 28.61%
2 52240 5.22%
3 5168 0.52%
4 299 0.03%
5 6 0.00%
so about 1/3 of the shoes had that pattern at least 1 time

for PBPBPBP (1 million shoes)
looks to be about the same percentage wise that is
occurrences [PBPBPBP                  freq  
0 668581
1 277377
2 49281
3 4526
4 235

have fun with Marty streakin'

Sally
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zeldastrike321
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April 11th, 2018 at 9:37:27 AM permalink
what software are you using is it accessible for me to use?

for some reason I looked at 1 million 8 deck shoes and have this type of info.
for BPBPBPB
times freq freq/100
--------------------------------------------
0 656214 65.62%
1 286073 28.61%
2 52240 5.22%
3 5168 0.52%
4 299 0.03%
5 6 0.00%
so about 1/3 of the shoes had that pattern at least 1 time
mustangsally
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zeldastrike321
April 11th, 2018 at 11:32:56 AM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

what software are you using is it accessible for me to use?

Winstats
the file name = winstats.exe
under simulation: Baccarat

you can find it in my online folder in my blog here
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094

It does not make bets for you.
The author (highschool teacher and good guy Richard Parris)
died a few years ago before that happened and no one has his code.
sad.(his wife may have it)

For betting I use Excel or R (but my files for that is messy right now)

The Wizard has 250k shoes also to look at at Wizard of Odds
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/

one can remove the T from it using a program like notepad++ (I use it)
and then count for any sequence of BPs too

I get for his 1st 25k shoe file
903179: Ps
927131: Bs
10230: B,P,B,P,B,P,B (average of 179 BP to see that sequence)
9961: P,B,P,B,P,B,P

A
Marty for streaks
does sound fun to play, for me, maybe not for others
I look more at probabilities of doubling a stake later (I think I already have it for Baccarat)

Sally
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zeldastrike321
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April 11th, 2018 at 4:24:41 PM permalink
i cant open winstats.exe on my mac is it only for windows?
keldog
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April 11th, 2018 at 5:18:53 PM permalink
I'm honestly surprised you haven't seen a 7 streak yet. I've been working on my own system. How I've been doing it is I wait for streaks of 4 to start then I bet on the opposite, up to 4 more times (if streak hits 8 I quit) bets go 10,20,40,80

I've now completed 30 shoes in my testing.
129 times I've won my bet
4 times the streak has hit 8+

I will just be doing this for fun sometime though and go for a short term win on a shoe. Because as others have stated there's no system that will win forever. I just recently learned as well. GL to you though!
I don't go against the grain, the grain goes against me
zeldastrike321
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April 11th, 2018 at 5:49:54 PM permalink
so you wait for BBBB, then bet P fours times, do bets go 10,20,40,80 only if you lose or regardless of outcome?
ontariodealer
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April 11th, 2018 at 6:06:51 PM permalink
Zelda, you asked a question and pokergrinder gave you the correct answer.....but youre not listening.
get second you pig
mustangsally
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April 11th, 2018 at 7:14:17 PM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

i cant open winstats.exe on my mac is it only for windows?

forgot to mention that. yes, windows only.
I know others that run windows programs on their Mac with no problems. Do not know how difficult that is.
I do not need to do to that.
have fun with Marty. it looks like fun
Sally
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keldog
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cantstandtowin
April 11th, 2018 at 8:04:34 PM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

so you wait for BBBB, then bet P fours times, do bets go 10,20,40,80 only if you lose or regardless of outcome?



I wait for BBBB or PPPP then martingale til I win. If I lose 4 bets in a row I chalk it up to a loss
I don't go against the grain, the grain goes against me
BlackjackGuy123
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April 12th, 2018 at 5:18:15 PM permalink
gambler's fallacy
mustangsally
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April 12th, 2018 at 8:43:54 PM permalink
Quote: keldog

I wait for BBBB or PPPP then martingale til I win. If I lose 4 bets in a row I chalk it up to a loss

ok
sounds fun

also
what I find interesting is
if you or I test say, 250,000 shoes
and start betting after a run of 4 either way
or
just bet after one P win, (for example)
the average win when won
or
the average lost when a loss
is
exactly the same.

so it appears that
waiting for a trigger
only makes one feel good about their betting system selection

does not change the outcome - win or lose

that is so cool to know
Sally
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ThatDonGuy
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April 13th, 2018 at 9:38:45 AM permalink
Quote: keldog

I wait for BBBB or PPPP then martingale til I win. If I lose 4 bets in a row I chalk it up to a loss


Remember Bayes's Theorem:

The probability that B happens given that A also happens = (the probability that A happens given that B also happens) x (the probability of B happening) / (the probability of A happening)

In this case, let A be "a coin flip comes up heads 4 times in a row," and B be "a coin flip comes up heads 4 more times in a row."
The probability that a coin flip comes up heads 8 times in a row given that it already came up 4 times in a row = (the probability that it came up heads 4 times in a row given that it came up heads 8 times in a row) x (the probability that it comes up 8 times in a row) / (the probability that it comes up 4 times in a row) = 1 x (1/256) / (1/16) = 1/16. Not coincidentally, this is also the probability that the coin comes up heads 4 times in a row regardless of the previous tosses.
zeldastrike321
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May 1st, 2018 at 7:55:22 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I say it is good where good equals having fun
for some reason I looked at 1 million 8 deck shoes and have this type of info.
for BPBPBPB

 times   freq  freq/100
--------------------------------------------
0 656214 65.62%
1 286073 28.61%
2 52240 5.22%
3 5168 0.52%
4 299 0.03%
5 6 0.00%
so about 1/3 of the shoes had that pattern at least 1 time

for PBPBPBP (1 million shoes)
looks to be about the same percentage wise that is
occurrences [PBPBPBP                  freq  
0 668581
1 277377
2 49281
3 4526
4 235

have fun with Marty streakin'

Sally



can you please punch in the data for BPBPBPBPBP into winstat exe for me and tell me the frequency? There is an online table of baccarat from $1 to $1000 that gives the player 10 times before they bust. I just want to see statistically speaking how likely it is to succeed?

1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512. (doubling of bet)
mustangsally
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May 1st, 2018 at 9:04:03 PM permalink
Quote: zeldastrike321

can you please punch in the data for BPBPBPBPBP into winstat exe for me and tell me the frequency?

already had that one
10 million shoes
sequence: BPBPBPBPBP
    times      freq   freq/100
------------------------------
0.00 9542164 95.42%
1.00 452008 4.52%
2.00 5828 0.06%


Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Wizard
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December 22nd, 2023 at 9:51:55 AM permalink
I haven't debunked a betting system for a while. Can anyone recommend one that I haven't analyzed already?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
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December 22nd, 2023 at 10:20:51 AM permalink
Oscars Grind is usually entertaining.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Wizard
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December 22nd, 2023 at 10:32:53 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Oscars Grind is usually entertaining.
link to original post



Welcome back. I've done Oscar's Grind already.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
OnceDear
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December 22nd, 2023 at 1:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I haven't debunked a betting system for a while. Can anyone recommend one that I haven't analyzed already?
link to original post


How about educated guessing based on patterns. I don't think you've touched on that one.
Win and Leave's another old chestnut as yet un-examined.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Gialmere
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December 22nd, 2023 at 1:55:44 PM permalink
You could also examine layout specific strategies like the Iron Cross and 5-6-8-9 for craps or the Double Street Quad and James Bond for roulette.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
ChumpChange
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December 22nd, 2023 at 5:23:23 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Quote: zeldastrike321

what software are you using is it accessible for me to use?

Winstats
the file name = winstats.exe
under simulation: Baccarat

you can find it in my online folder in my blog here
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094


I get for his 1st 25k shoe file
903179: Ps
927131: Bs
10230: B,P,B,P,B,P,B (average of 179 BP to see that sequence)
9961: P,B,P,B,P,B,P

link to original post



Just noticing there's about 24,000 more B's than P's in this result.

903,179 X $100 = $90,317,900 P Win
927,131 x $095 = $88,077,445 B Win

$90,317,900 P Win - $92,713,100 B Loss = -$2,395,200 P Loss Total
$88,077,445 B Win - $90,317,900 P Loss = -$2,240,455 B Loss Total
Playing Banker had about $155K less loss than playing Player in this case.

So if you're playing Player, you're running up against more Banker wins causing you more losses. If you're playing Banker, you're getting shortchanged 5% and it's not enough that you're winning more often than Player by 1 hand per shoe.

Any system I have relies on variance and being ahead by at least 10 bets after 5 shoes, but it could take an extra shoe or two to get there, who knows.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 22, 2023
EvenBob
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December 22nd, 2023 at 7:40:38 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


How about educated guessing based on patterns. I don't think you've touched on that one.
link to original post



I would love to hear the details of that one. What are they exactly. Mike can't analyze it if he doesn't know the details so why don't you please explain them. How do you arrive at the 'educated' part.. How do you know when you've reached the point where you can make an educated guess. You seem to be an expert on this, waiting for the details.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Tanko
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lilredrooster
December 29th, 2023 at 4:10:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I haven't debunked a betting system for a while. Can anyone recommend one that I haven't analyzed already?
link to original post



Free Baccarat Strategy

'Baccarat Strategy: How to Win at Baccarat with 99.7% Winrate'
lilredrooster
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December 29th, 2023 at 4:32:51 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Quote: Wizard

I haven't debunked a betting system for a while. Can anyone recommend one that I haven't analyzed already?
link to original post



Free Baccarat Strategy

'Baccarat Strategy: How to Win at Baccarat with 99.7% Winrate'
link to original post


I watched some of that and the comments were stunning
I read at least 50 of the comments
THERE WASN'T EVEN ONE SINGLE NEGATIVE COMMENT
all praised the system except for a couple of them that had some question about the strategy
many showed gratitude to the guy for their substantial winnings due to his system
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 29, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
OnceDear
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lilredrooster
December 29th, 2023 at 5:24:26 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: Tanko

Quote: Wizard

I haven't debunked a betting system for a while. Can anyone recommend one that I haven't analyzed already?
link to original post



Free Baccarat Strategy

'Baccarat Strategy: How to Win at Baccarat with 99.7% Winrate'
link to original post


I watched some of that and the comments were stunning
I read at least 50 of the comments
THERE WASN'T EVEN ONE SINGLE NEGATIVE COMMENT
all praised the system except for a couple of them that had some question about the strategy
many showed gratitude to the guy for their substantial winnings due to his system
.
link to original post



So, there we have it. After decades searching the whole internet, this totally foolproof winning system washes up in a quiet backwater of the interweb.

271,000 views and only 146 comments, none of them negative. Could it be that 270864 viewers did not follow up by testing the system? Or did lots of them wander off to put it into practice and have been too busy getting rich to bother to report back?

It's been out there for four months. If you are going to capitalise on it, jump in quick before All the casinos of the world stop running baccarat tables or change the pay table to kill the system.

Let's be grateful indeed that this foolproof system is lost in the millions of scams and snake-oil claims.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Dec 29, 2023
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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December 29th, 2023 at 5:51:11 AM permalink
So all I have to do is bring $130 to the bubble craps machine and bet $1 on the PL, if I lose switch to the DP for $2, if I lose switch to the PL for $4 then $8, then the DP for $16 then $32. Just have to win 1,000 line bets and I'll have $1,130!
OnceDear
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December 29th, 2023 at 5:56:26 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

So all I have to do is bring $130 to the bubble craps machine and bet $1 on the PL, if I lose switch to the DP for $2, if I lose switch to the PL for $4 then $8, then the DP for $16 then $32. Just have to win 1,000 line bets and I'll have $1,130!
link to original post

Why would a baccarat system work on bubble craps?
Mind you.... Why would it work on baccarat?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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December 29th, 2023 at 6:17:27 AM permalink
Garbage thought deleted.
Coming back with starting with a base unit of $2 and raising the base unit $1 for each 64 line wins with no losses. Topping out at the $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160 level, so 4 sets of 64 wins in a row, starting with a $260 buy-in, and I can get to near $1,175 cash-out.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 29, 2023
OnceDear
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December 29th, 2023 at 6:24:45 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Got me thinking about raising my base bet 1 unit for each $64 I'm ahead so I'll get to my win goal faster.
link to original post


... Because you will never bust out by losing those pesky six or seven wagers in a row?

Why are we even entertaining this marty again.
The OP was in 2018. Maybe the OP has got rich with his/her system.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
lilredrooster
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December 29th, 2023 at 6:45:47 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


... Because you will never bust out by losing those pesky six or seven wagers in a row?


Also, the progression wouldn't ever win its goal of $1.00 whenever a winning bet is on the Banker because of the 5% commission

what a disaster this system is - laughable

.
Please don't feed the trolls
OnceDear
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December 29th, 2023 at 7:08:15 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: OnceDear


... Because you will never bust out by losing those pesky six or seven wagers in a row?


Also, the progression wouldn't ever win its goal of $1.00 whenever a winning bet is on the Banker because of the 5% commission

what a disaster this system is - laughable

.
link to original post



Don't underestimate Marty. LOL. There's no rule that says one stops Martingaling after one winning wager. That's the joy of it: One can repeatedly Martingale towards a one (or 0.95) unit win, time after time forever...... Or until one goes bust, but we all know how unlikely that is. $:o)

Actually, for all my derision, I quite like Marty $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Dieter
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December 29th, 2023 at 9:23:35 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: Tanko

Quote: Wizard

I haven't debunked a betting system for a while. Can anyone recommend one that I haven't analyzed already?
link to original post



Free Baccarat Strategy

'Baccarat Strategy: How to Win at Baccarat with 99.7% Winrate'
link to original post


I watched some of that and the comments were stunning
I read at least 50 of the comments
THERE WASN'T EVEN ONE SINGLE NEGATIVE COMMENT
all praised the system except for a couple of them that had some question about the strategy
many showed gratitude to the guy for their substantial winnings due to his system
.
link to original post



This smacks of moderated comments, not an amazingly effective baccarat system.
May the cards fall in your favor.
cantstandtowin
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February 7th, 2024 at 6:58:50 PM permalink
...leave it there....
cash out and don't come back....
great movie
Dieter
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February 7th, 2024 at 10:53:37 PM permalink
Hey folks.

If your post was just here (and now gone), I apologize.

I thought I saw something, and may have
bumped the delete button while scrolling.
May the cards fall in your favor.
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