Blackjack
1. Start shoe with $10 bets.
2. After a dealer bust raise bet to $50 and play the next 3 hands regardless of win loose or push. If you have another dealer bust during these 3 hands start another 3 hands. (It is possible to have a pretty long streak of max bets if the dealer busts a lot during a shoe.)
3. Always start shoe at $10.
4. Play BS no ins.
It is that simple 1 2 3. Will it win in the long run? Probably not but if someone can sim it I would like to see the results. Thanks.
Quote: dwight56Well I have discontinued this system, and really don t know what the outcome would be, just tired of playing it after 8000 hands it is up 7250 so still ahead but has been falling from a high of + 10,000. Which happens with card counting as well. For anyone who would like to run a sim here it is and again I don t know how you would simulate it but would like to know the results. I have been playing it on a 6 deck 80%pen, H17, split 3 times, das,. Here it is please don t laugh.
1. Start shoe with $10 bets.
2. After a dealer bust raise bet to $50 and play the next 3 hands regardless of win loose or push. If you have another dealer bust during these 3 hands start another 3 hands. (It is possible to have a pretty long streak of max bets if the dealer busts a lot during a shoe.)
3. Always start shoe at $10.
4. Play BS no ins.
It is that simple 1 2 3. Will it win in the long run? Probably not but if someone can sim it I would like to see the results. Thanks.
How did you come up with $10 and $50 as the two betting amounts ?
Quote: dwight56...just tired of playing it after 8000 hands it is up 7250 so still ahead but has been falling from a high of + 10,000...
Everything works until it doesn't.
This will be a crude quick analysis, and I'll await the SIM results to see just how negative this system is (but I can mathematically guarantee you it's negative). Dealer busts 28.36% in blackjack. If you get 90 hands per hour, that would equate out to the dealer busting ~26 times, and not busting 64 times... little more than 2-1 on the bad side, but hey let's round way up for you and say it's 2-1 (60-30). You'd get your 3 hands of max bet ever once every 3 hands (and more so because you reset the counter if the bust happens again). You're actually more than likely going to have your max bet out the majority of most shoes. So what does this mean? Since you're just playing basic strategy it means nothing more than upping your average bet at the table. The timing of dealer busts has absolutely nothing to do with your EV. The system seems to be "ride the dealer bust streaks" which is the same as riding the Banker or Player streaks in Baccarat.Quote: dwight56Well I have discontinued this system, and really don t know what the outcome would be, just tired of playing it after 8000 hands it is up 7250 so still ahead but has been falling from a high of + 10,000. Which happens with card counting as well. For anyone who would like to run a sim here it is and again I don t know how you would simulate it but would like to know the results. I have been playing it on a 6 deck 80%pen, H17, split 3 times, das,. Here it is please don t laugh.
1. Start shoe with $10 bets.
2. After a dealer bust raise bet to $50 and play the next 3 hands regardless of win loose or push. If you have another dealer bust during these 3 hands start another 3 hands. (It is possible to have a pretty long streak of max bets if the dealer busts a lot during a shoe.)
3. Always start shoe at $10.
4. Play BS no ins.
It is that simple 1 2 3. Will it win in the long run? Probably not but if someone can sim it I would like to see the results. Thanks.
Point being: ALL this system does is up your average bet at the table.
OriginalSD = 1.15*AvgBet = 1.15*35 = 40.25 (your avg bet will definitely be more than 25, maybe even closer to 40, but I'll take 35 as a compromise and educated estimate).
EV(x hands) = (NumHands * AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD
ex.
EV(8000 hands) = (8000 * 35) * (-.0064) = -$1792
SD(8000 hands) = Sqrt(8000) * 40.25 = $3600... 3SD = $10,800
THUS: it's mathematically FEASABLE, that after 8k hands you could be UP ~$8k... and as you saw the math 'start' to right itself in the fall from your high. Again, I'm using educated estimations from your avg bet, but in the end that -.0064 is the reason your system mathematically can never be positive. You're NEVER changing the house edge of the game, and thus you will always be within negative expectation. Regardless if your avg bet is $10, or $50, that number will always result in a negative. Let's look at the inevitable:
EV(500k hands) = (500,000 * 35) * (-.0064) = -$112,000
SD(500k hands) = Sqrt(500,000) * 40.25 = $28,461... 3SD = $85,383
Thus, by the time you reach 500k hands, the BEST you could possibly mathematically do is -112,000 + 85,383 = -$26,616. The WORST you could do is -112,000 - 85,383 = -$197,383... So you'll be somewhere between DOWN $26k and $200k, mathematically guaranteed (99%+).
The reason counting works (which I know you know I'm just re-stating) is because we only leverage larger bets when we KNOW we have an advantage. Thus, over the long run a counter could experience approximately a 1.5% PLAYER advantage. Thus their EV is EV = (NumHands * AvgBet)*(.015) where that .015 is POSITIVE.
Thank you for sharing the details though. I assume someone can run this through a SIM and give a more proven negative number, but thought I'd throw some quick thoughts at it.
Quote: dwight56Do we have any results from a simulation?
No need. You're going to lose about $30-$35 an hour with perfect BS play over the long haul, depending on house rules.
If you kept going with your test, you'd probably be in for a continued nasty downturn, which is probably why it got to be not as fun and you stopped.
ZCore13
For the life of me I can't remember the formula for "% chance being up X after Y events"... hopefully someone else can jog my memory.Quote: michael99000Is there a way to figure out the % chance of playing 4750 hands of blackjack at $30 per hand and being up $9000 at that point?
You can get a 'feel' based on EV/3SD though... (assuming the new standard of 6D H17):
OriginalSD = 1.15*30 = 34.5
EV(4750 hands) = (4750*30)*(-.0064) = -$912
SD(4750 hands) = Sqrt(4750)*34.5 = $2377.75... 3SD = $7113.25
So with 99%+ certainty, the best you could do after 4750 hands is -912 + 7113.25 = +$6201.25
You should not be able to be up $9k after 4750 hands of blackjack betting $30 per hand. Think you found a gaffed online game or something? I'd cash out often, as once they realize they're going to seize all the funds left in your account lol.
Quote: RomesFor the life of me I can't remember the formula for "% chance being up X after Y events"... hopefully someone else can jog my memory.
You can get a 'feel' based on EV/3SD though... (assuming the new standard of 6D H17):
OriginalSD = 1.15*30 = 34.5
EV(4750 hands) = (4750*30)*(-.0064) = -$912
SD(4750 hands) = Sqrt(4750)*34.5 = $2377.75... 3SD = $7113.25
So with 99%+ certainty, the best you could do after 4750 hands is -912 + 7113.25 = +$6201.25
You should not be able to be up $9k after 4750 hands of blackjack betting $30 per hand. Think you found a gaffed online game or something? I'd cash out often, as once they realize they're going to seize all the funds left in your account lol.
I’m not asking for myself. Scroll up , the system that the OP was testing and began this thread for us up $9050 after 4750 hands at what looks like an average bet of $30 per hand. Assuming his stats are accurate and he’s not lying , I was just curious as to what the chances are of that happening. It seems as though you are saying it’s much less than 1% which while not impossible seems remarkable. I’d like to know how much less than 1% but I also don’t know the formula
Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: dwight56...just tired of playing it after 8000 hands it is up 7250 so still ahead but has been falling from a high of + 10,000...
Everything works until it doesn't.
In the military, we learned we could airdrop anything once.
Quote: dwight56SO am I right in saying this cannot be simulated? Win%was 44.3 loose%47.05 push 8.82%doubles won 56.5% average bet $31, I understand basic strategy will not win, what I am testing is possible clumping of dealer busts, I also already said it cannot be shown to work with math figures that why I wanted a sim
It can be simulated. There's no such thing as clumping of dealer busts over the long haul. Long term they will spread out exactly as the math says they will and with an even distribution. Short term, they could clump and you'll win, or they could be scarce and you'll lose faster. Unless you know when they are going to clump beforehand. Then your system works great.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13It can be simulated.
Then please simulate so we know how bad it is, thanks
ZCore13
Hmm, so assuming dwight was telling the truth (which I believe) it sounds like he was 'testing' his 'system' on a "free to play BJ" site of some sort, in which we've all had suspicions that they pump up the returns on the "free games" to make you feel more like a winner.Quote: dwight56SO am I right in saying this cannot be simulated? Win%was 44.3 loose%47.05 push 8.82%doubles won 56.5% average bet $31, I understand basic strategy will not win, what I am testing is possible clumping of dealer busts, I also already said it cannot be shown to work with math figures that why I wanted a sim
If you avg bet was $31, then no, you couldn't have possibly been up $9k after 4750 hands (see my math above). You were playing a gaffed game, or lying. What were you using for your testing?
Quote: dwight56The game is an Android app call Blackjack all in one it is not affiliated with any casino and there is no way to play for real money on it, it is as close to the real thing as I have ever played, so where is the simulation?
I have a similar app on my phone , it’s a roullete game. Also not affiliated with any online casino.
It started me off with $5000 in chips. At one point I’d ran my balance up to $1.3 million. Not saying I think this roullete game is or isn’t as random as a real life wheel.
Just saying that any play money casino game cannot be guaranteed to be fair and random. apps want you to keep using the app , and letting you win more often than you should be might be one ploy to do that
If all of the numbers dwight gave us were true, I'll go on record now and mathematically guarantee the app he used is not a 'fair game' and is gaffed.Quote: michael99000I have a similar app on my phone , it’s a roullete game. Also not affiliated with any online casino.
It started me off with $5000 in chips. At one point I’d ran my balance up to $1.3 million. Not saying I think this roullete game is or isn’t as random as a real life wheel.
Just saying that any play money casino game cannot be guaranteed to be fair and random. apps want you to keep using the app , and letting you win more often than you should be might be one ploy to do that
Quote: dwight56I agree on some but this one starts at a 1000 and then if you run out you have to purchase more so no reason for it to be set to payout more than normal which believe me it does not. I used it to practice card counting and after 30000 hands of that I was up 5000
So you’re saying the app starts you out with $1000 in play money and then if you lose that , the app has now become totally unusable and worthless if you don’t make a real money chip purchase ? It does not give you a reload of $1000 in play money at any point.?
That’s extremely unusual because, if it’s a fair bj game , then almost everyone is going to lose their initial 1000 and then just delete the app
Also , there is no possible way for you to say the game doesn’t give out more winning hands than it should without seeing how the game is programmed
It's well known that I'm a senior programmer been doing so for over 10 years.Quote: dwight56So you don t want to do a simulation or can't, but blame the game wow!!
1) Your math up front shows a loser.
2) The math based on the numbers you gave us PROVES that either the app is gaffed, or you're lying... so which is it?
3) Why would I waste hours of development time (contracting at ~$200/hour) to write a free SIM for you when we ALREADY KNOW it's a loser system? Please tell me why I should do that FOR you, for free, and then I'll understand why you want to take a jab at me.
This happens so often with people with 'systems'... it's your 'baby' and you 'want' it to work, but it doesn't and anyone that HELPS you by doing some math, pitching in observations/opinions, etc, you take issue with because it goes against your bias.
Quote: dwight56So you don t want to do a simulation or can't, but blame the game wow!!
I'm trying to understand why your last 3 or 4 posts are so presumptuous. It's like you think some math guy owes you his time and knowledge.
"How are we doing on the sim?" "We" aren't interested, it would seem. And who is "we"? McFly! Where's my homework!
I dunno. Maybe someone is writing one for you even now. But why would anyone care on a free app for play money? It's a huge assumption to claim a fair game. They're under no obligation to offer one.How is it worth the time of anyone here?
Quote: dwight56Thanks for your vode of confidence, I am not discrediting card counting at all, I have done it for the last year, and agree it will work in the loooong run, but 7,8 10 dollars an hour for the smaller player it is not worth the effort and heat, and for some they loose it all anyway.
For most people it is not worth it to bend over and pick ip a penny but I do that too
Quote: beachbumbabsI'm trying to understand why your last 3 or 4 posts are so presumptuous. It's like you think some math guy owes you his time and knowledge.
"How are we doing on the sim?" "We" aren't interested, it would seem. And who is "we"? McFly! Where's my homework!
I dunno. Maybe someone is writing one for you even now. But why would anyone care on a free app for play money? It's a huge assumption to claim a fair game. They're under no obligation to offer one.How is it worth the time of anyone here?
As soon as he divulged that his “testing” was being done on a play money phone app, I think this whole thread and his system lost credibility. I was under the assumption he was testing it in an actual casino , or at the very least in a real money online casino
FYI I have never claimed it to be a long term winner
Quote: dwight56I think we have had enough said and did I not mean to piss anyone off, as for lying. why would I do that? NO reason. When I first posted everyone said well tell us the system and we will run a sim, and I already said the math won t work but that is all I got was math and no sim of coarse, so just forget it, I will test it some more and see what happens even on a (phone app) and if I like the results I will play it at the casino, but until then continue counting and see where that goes, did not mean to bother anyone or take up all you guys valuable time.
Fair enough. Thanks for reviewing the start of this thread; I has forgotten that part.
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The first 4 are tripled to cover what was lost in the first hand, what should have been won in the first hand and what can be won in the next hand. It averages out to winning $1.00 per hand.
I have used this in practice on the 24-7 Blackjack website with great success. My thinking is that if it works on a RNG from a website, it might also work on a computerized Blackjack machine.
Quote: kd7oneI don't know if the Wizard has reviewed the Martingale system, but there is a modified version of it that works for me pretty good.
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The first 4 are tripled to cover what was lost in the first hand, what should have been won in the first hand and what can be won in the next hand. It averages out to winning $1.00 per hand.
I have used this in practice on the 24-7 Blackjack website with great success. My thinking is that if it works on a RNG from a website, it might also work on a computerized Blackjack machine.
So when you lose 8 in a row , which happens quite often in real life blackjack , then what happens ? You’re down 840 units and you start over? Then you need this cycle to work successfully 840 times in a row.. to get back to even
Also , what if you lose 7 hands in a row, put your $432 up , and get dealt 8-8 vs a dealer 7?
Quote: kd7oneI don't know if the Wizard has reviewed the Martingale system, but there is a modified version of it that works for me pretty good.
1
3
9
27
54
108
216
432
The first 4 are tripled to cover what was lost in the first hand, what should have been won in the first hand and what can be won in the next hand. It averages out to winning $1.00 per hand.
I have used this in practice on the 24-7 Blackjack website with great success. My thinking is that if it works on a RNG from a website, it might also work on a computerized Blackjack machine.
It does not work anywhere unless the software is rigged in you favor to try and get you to play real money.
Assuming $10 base unit, you're telling me you're going to put up $4,320 on a hand after already losing over $4,000 on the previous 7? And not only are you willing, but you've found somewhere with a bet spread of $10 - $5,000? And you've brought over $8,000 to the table on a $10 base bet?
ZCore13
I'm sure there are more, but they are out there. You just have to know where to find them.
By using the chart, you only need a $850 bankroll for $1 bets, $4100 bankroll for $5 bets
kd7oneQuote: kd7oneSo far I have not lost 8 hands in a row. I guess I will cross that bridge when I come to it.........or at least try to.
It's an insane strategy. Unless you want excitement at any cost. losing 8 hands in a row is an incredibly frequent event. Try 15 or 20.
What would you do then? Lick your wounds, rob a bank and start back at $1
Just about everyone goes thru a phase where they "invent" a system involving doubling or tripling up.
kd7one... just so you know, the odds of losing 8 hands in a row in blackjack are (.49)^8 = .0033, which is about 1 in 300... If you haven't lost 8 in a row yet, get ready, you will soon enough (and often enough after that too).Quote: kd7oneMy research has found a casino with a bet spread of $3 to $5000. That casino has 8 tables with that bet spread. There is another casino with $5 to $5000 bet spread with 12 tables. and a 3rd casino that has $5 to $5000 with 10 tables. and another with $5 to $5000 with 9 tables, And yet another with $5 to $5000 with 18 tables.
I'm sure there are more, but they are out there. You just have to know where to find them.
By using the chart, you only need a $850 bankroll for $1 bets, $4100 bankroll for $5 bets
The martingale, and all subsequent deviations of it, will never work in the long run. The issue is that you're not tracking the changing house edge (which is what card counting does). Here's the formula to calculate the Expected Value (EV) of x hands of blackjack:
EV(x hands) = (x * AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)
So all you're doing is changing your AvgBet, not the house edge, which is ALWAYS going to be negative in the long run without effective card counting and bet spreading. The HE on all the blackjack games is set up negative, usually "around" -.5% for the house. This is just the HE from the rules of the game. Card counters track the cards and thus can tell when the edge swings back and forth to the player, and then jack up their AvgBet when the HouseEdge is in their favor. Your system (and all martingale systems) does not do this, and thus you will always be playing a negative edge in the long run.
ZCore13
