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Lucca3927
Lucca3927
Joined: Aug 5, 2017
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January 12th, 2018 at 9:50:04 AM permalink
Maybe this posted before- I'm not sure.

I'm a darkside bettor (and always will be) and I noticed something being played awhile back.

If you bet the don't pass and the point of 4 or 10 is made then the following should happen if you bet on the hard 4 (or 10):

7 - A push with the don't pass winning and the hard ways losing

4 easy - If the point comes at 1/3 or 3/1 then you should lose 2 units, minus one for the hard way bet and minus one for the don't pass bet. This results in a loss of 2 units

4 Hard - Win seven unity

It looks like you're bucking a 5-1 disadvantage but getting a 7-1 payoff. I'll take that. What have I overlooked ? (Yes, I have to get past the come out roll but that's true of any dark side bet, but this doesn't apply because you've already established the point).
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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January 12th, 2018 at 9:52:37 AM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Maybe this posted before- I'm not sure.

I'm a darkside bettor (and always will be) and I noticed something being played awhile back.

If you bet the don't pass and the point of 4 or 10 is made then the following should happen if you bet on the hard 4 (or 10):

7 - A push with the don't pass winning and the hard ways losing

4 easy - If the point comes at 1/3 or 3/1 then you should lose 2 units, minus one for the hard way bet and minus one for the don't pass bet. This results in a loss of 2 units

4 Hard - Win seven unity

It looks like you're bucking a 5-1 disadvantage but getting a 7-1 payoff. I'll take that. What have I overlooked ? (Yes, I have to get past the come out roll but that's true of any dark side bet).



You stated what you overlooked.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Lucca3927
Lucca3927
Joined: Aug 5, 2017
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January 12th, 2018 at 10:44:05 AM permalink
I'm not sure how getting past the come out roll and making the 4/10 point makes things differently since you don't make the hard way bet until the point is established ? Can you explain it in more detail.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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January 12th, 2018 at 10:49:24 AM permalink
OK, assuming that you bet the don't pass and that the point is established as 4/10. You then are at an advantage. You are suggesting that you should then give up much of that advantage by placing a wager with a high house advantage. You can do that if it is fun for you, but do you really think that's the best way to play it? Why not just place your money on free odds?
Lucca3927
Lucca3927
Joined: Aug 5, 2017
  • Threads: 17
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January 12th, 2018 at 11:24:57 AM permalink
I'm not going to try to figure out the new odds. I know that whatever they are can't beat the free odds bet. I was just wondering if my theory was right.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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January 12th, 2018 at 12:25:10 PM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

I'm not going to try to figure out the new odds. I know that whatever they are can't beat the free odds bet. I was just wondering if my theory was right.

Here is the general fact that can save the player when confronted with seemingly favorable bet combinations:

Each bet has an undefeatable expected value [EV]. If you make additional bets, each one of those will also have an EV; the EV of your overall action will the the EV of each bet added together. Thus if it seems you have found a combination that seems to create positive EV while all those bets separately have a negative EV, you can be sure you just made a mistake [probably not weighting the probabilities right]. It is not possible to create positive or zero value EV out of a combination of bets that are negative EV.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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January 12th, 2018 at 12:41:29 PM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

I'm a darkside bettor (and always will be) and I noticed something being played awhile back.

Yahoo!
I used to bet the dpass
but it is a sucker bet, imo.

sometimes it wins on a 7 and other times is loses on a 7.
that is so wrong! (hehe)

my 3 cents:
A Lay bet ALWAYS wins on a 7 and will never lose on a 7!
sure the house edge is higher than a line bet
but craps shooters are horrible when under pressure (placed there)
to "win" their point,imo of course

Quote: Lucca3927

If you bet the don't pass and the point of 4 or 10 is made then the following should happen if you bet on the hard 4 (or 10):

7 - A push with the don't pass winning and the hard ways losing

"the point of 4 or 10"
this is what wrong way players want! always point of 4 or 10
always!
Yahoo!

but, you want a push when a 7 rolls?
say "It is not soooo"

hmm,
6 ways to win the dpass on point4(10)
3 ways to lose
a HUGH player's edge (we,, you know)
and you (others?) suggest to take that player advantage down to 0!?!

well, if have more fun that way
sweet!

takes all kinds

unless I missed something...
I like doing craps math when a player has the advantage.
working on a Lay bet and a 3 way 7 bet that has a players' advantage (using a loss rebate of course)

takes all kinds
thank you for sharing
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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