When to say something is wrong
July 31st, 2017 at 5:52:06 AM
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Good Morning All,
Question. I was wondering the other day at what point in any coin flip/near coin flip situation do we say, "Ok, something is wrong here". We have all seen roulette hit red/black 10 or 20 times. I understand that each flip of the coin or spin of the wheel is an independent event. That being said, there has to be a point where we say, this isn't normal variation. Can anybody tell me at what point you would say that?
For example if roulette hit red 200 times in a row (or 200 heads), surely that cant be normal. Perhaps I am wrong, just seems strange.
Anyways, let me know ya'lls thoughts.
Question. I was wondering the other day at what point in any coin flip/near coin flip situation do we say, "Ok, something is wrong here". We have all seen roulette hit red/black 10 or 20 times. I understand that each flip of the coin or spin of the wheel is an independent event. That being said, there has to be a point where we say, this isn't normal variation. Can anybody tell me at what point you would say that?
For example if roulette hit red 200 times in a row (or 200 heads), surely that cant be normal. Perhaps I am wrong, just seems strange.
Anyways, let me know ya'lls thoughts.
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
July 31st, 2017 at 6:16:12 AM
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3 standard deviations over a non trivial sample size is enough for me to raise an eyebrow.
July 31st, 2017 at 8:38:29 AM
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After the 18th consecutive Yo I start to get suspicious.
100% risk of ruin
July 31st, 2017 at 8:49:21 AM
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Quote: RogerKintAfter the 18th consecutive Yo I start to get suspicious.
I would after the 5th!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 31st, 2017 at 9:06:45 AM
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When the dealer gets two blackjacks in a row , I realize I'm obviously the victim of Chinese prison preshuffled cards
July 31st, 2017 at 10:23:08 AM
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Every time I'm using the Martingale betting strategy and lose my entire bankroll, something has to be wrong! That's just not possible!!!
July 31st, 2017 at 10:39:58 AM
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If red hit 200 times in a row, the casino would be in big trouble. Everyone chasing black would be finished and red would be table max a long time. Wouldn't that be nice.
I am a robot.
July 31st, 2017 at 11:08:42 AM
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Quote: mwalz9Every time I'm using the Martingale betting strategy and lose my entire bankroll, something has to be wrong! That's just not possible!!!
Try again, using twice the bankroll and doubling your bets. Keep doing this until one works.
July 31st, 2017 at 5:36:43 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxTry again, using twice the bankroll and doubling your bets. Keep doing this until one works.
I would switch tables 3 times though.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
July 31st, 2017 at 11:52:57 PM
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Just bring an infinite bankroll, and then add 18% more, just in case.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
August 1st, 2017 at 3:27:39 AM
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Since no one (beside sabre) can give a competent answer......
Ultimately, it comes down to how far away from expectation or how many standard deviations you are from expectation. But there's also another part to it and it's this -- crazy things do happen and that is to be expected.
Also, what do you mean by a point at which we can say this isn't normal variation? You need to associate a confidence to such a statement, since 100% confidence is impossible.
Do you want to be 90% confident? 95%? 99%? 99.999%?
For instance, rolling a 12 in craps 3 times in a row is not particularly normal (1 in 46,656), but if you roll the dice hundreds of thousands of times, then it's to be expected you'll roll a 12 three times in a row. Looking at a large set of results then narrowing down on a particular sample you've purposely isolated, you'll see stuff that isn't normal by itself, but is normal as part of the larger set of results.
Ultimately, it comes down to how far away from expectation or how many standard deviations you are from expectation. But there's also another part to it and it's this -- crazy things do happen and that is to be expected.
Also, what do you mean by a point at which we can say this isn't normal variation? You need to associate a confidence to such a statement, since 100% confidence is impossible.
Do you want to be 90% confident? 95%? 99%? 99.999%?
For instance, rolling a 12 in craps 3 times in a row is not particularly normal (1 in 46,656), but if you roll the dice hundreds of thousands of times, then it's to be expected you'll roll a 12 three times in a row. Looking at a large set of results then narrowing down on a particular sample you've purposely isolated, you'll see stuff that isn't normal by itself, but is normal as part of the larger set of results.
August 1st, 2017 at 3:43:03 AM
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You might be witnessing a historic event but at no time can you say the wheel is gaffed .. it is what it is and you witness but a slice of reality but it is reality. No matter how much you disbelieve it, it is indeed what is happening.
Reality triumphs over all impressions and expectations.
The photo of the annunciator at the Rio with a calm half-empty roulette table proves the annunciator was in error. The woman who took her first lesson in craps and then held the dice for over three hours proves that reality triumphs over all expectations.
Reality triumphs over all impressions and expectations.
The photo of the annunciator at the Rio with a calm half-empty roulette table proves the annunciator was in error. The woman who took her first lesson in craps and then held the dice for over three hours proves that reality triumphs over all expectations.
August 1st, 2017 at 4:43:18 AM
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Thanks to RS and Flea for giving me the kind of responses I was looking for.
My follow up to flea would be, so if you just shrug your shoulders and say, "Well, sh*t like this happens", do you just always take freak occurrences at face value? In the realm of games of chance I mean. At no point do you start to wonder if the wheel is gaffed, or perhaps the coin is weighted oddly that allows for either heads or tails to land more often.
I guess that speaks to what RS was saying, at what point of certainty do you feel like you should start questioning things.
Thanks again for your responses.
My follow up to flea would be, so if you just shrug your shoulders and say, "Well, sh*t like this happens", do you just always take freak occurrences at face value? In the realm of games of chance I mean. At no point do you start to wonder if the wheel is gaffed, or perhaps the coin is weighted oddly that allows for either heads or tails to land more often.
I guess that speaks to what RS was saying, at what point of certainty do you feel like you should start questioning things.
Thanks again for your responses.
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
August 1st, 2017 at 5:32:08 AM
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Whether you stand there in wonderous awe or you shrug your shoulders with indifference to your situation matters not one whit. You just keep making your bets. The neophyte craps player may have thought her situation was normal whereas the more experienced players may well have been astounded. The dice paid equal attention to each of their thoughts. Afterwards, you may drink to a gaffed wheel or you may drink to an example of astounding variance of a perfect wheel, it makes no difference.
August 1st, 2017 at 1:17:03 PM
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Quote: RogerKintAfter the 18th consecutive Yo I start to get suspicious.
Post of the year!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
August 1st, 2017 at 1:24:09 PM
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Every situation is a freak situation. Go to a craps table and watch 20 tosses. What were the odds of those 20 numbers being thrown in that sequence?
August 1st, 2017 at 1:27:18 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxEvery situation is a freak situation. Go to a craps table and watch 20 tosses. What were the odds of those 20 numbers being thrown in that sequence?
The same as those 20 numbers being thrown in any other sequence.
August 1st, 2017 at 1:30:57 PM
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Not true. Rolling 20 consecutive 7's doesn't have the same odds as rolling 20 consecutive 12's.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 1st, 2017 at 1:36:12 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesNot true. Rolling 20 consecutive 7's doesn't have the same odds as rolling 20 consecutive 12's.
Quote: gamerfreakThe same as those 20 numbers being thrown in any other sequence.
I edited right after I posted because I used a wrong word.
August 1st, 2017 at 1:38:01 PM
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P(Throw One Seven) = 6/36 = .1667
P(Throw 20 Sevens in a row) = (6/36)^20 = .00000000000000027... well more than 1 in 500 trillion. Yeah, I'd be concerned with 20 of ANY number rolling in a row =D.
P(Throw 20 Sevens in a row) = (6/36)^20 = .00000000000000027... well more than 1 in 500 trillion. Yeah, I'd be concerned with 20 of ANY number rolling in a row =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
August 1st, 2017 at 1:40:03 PM
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Quote: gamerfreakQuote: gamerfreakThe same as those 20 numbers being thrown in any other sequence.
I edited right after I posted because I used a wrong word.
Ok, then I withdraw my statement.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 1st, 2017 at 1:41:26 PM
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Quote: RomesP(Throw One Seven) = 6/36 = .1667
P(Throw 20 Sevens in a row) = (6/36)^20 = .00000000000000027... well more than 1 in 500 trillion. Yeah, I'd be concerned with 20 of ANY number rolling in a row =D.
How many planets are in the universe and were on THIS one....
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 1st, 2017 at 4:32:48 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesHow many planets are in the universe and were on THIS one....
1/1 = 100%
No such thing as other planets. Have you ever seen one? Heh? We've all seen the light projections from our government into the sky to make us sheep think other planets and "stars" exist. You're all sheep!!
Edit: Sorry thought this was the misc. thread. :( Putting it in spoilers now.
August 1st, 2017 at 5:12:30 PM
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Quote: VCUSkyhawkGood Morning All,
Question. I was wondering the other day at what point in any coin flip/near coin flip situation do we say, "Ok, something is wrong here". We have all seen roulette hit red/black 10 or 20 times. I understand that each flip of the coin or spin of the wheel is an independent event. That being said, there has to be a point where we say, this isn't normal variation. Can anybody tell me at what point you would say that?
For example if roulette hit red 200 times in a row (or 200 heads), surely that cant be normal. Perhaps I am wrong, just seems strange.
Anyways, let me know ya'lls thoughts.
It depends on the who is flipping and how firmly I say something is rotten in Denmark.
Let's say it is at an Internet casino with software I have no prior history with or knowledge of. Let's say I play for an hour and things seem fine.
Then I hit 15 losses in a row (odds of 1 in 32,768). At this point, assuming I'm not motivated to warn others of cheating software, I would probably think to myself that something smells bad and quit playing, while making no formal accusations of cheating. I might suspect the software went into "take down" mode, which has been known to be a way to program casino software to guarantee an operator win.
However, to make a formal accusation of cheating, I like to see at least five standard deviations. In the case of coin flipping, that would be 22 straight losses (1 in 4,194,304 chance). Of course, more goes into it than that when making a case of cheating but that is a rough guide of where I'm at.
At some point, if I saw something super incredible, like 18 yo's in a row in craps, I'd suspect I was on a hidden camera show or somehow the victim of a practical joke.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 1st, 2017 at 11:37:31 PM
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I played UTH at one particular casino last week, 3 short sessions. I played exact JG strategy and Wizard kicker strategy. I played 22 hands total. I folded 4. I lost 18. I won zero. $800 straight down the crapper.
What are the odds of that?
It was a full table, one2six shuffler, board first, then all players, then dealer. No cut, no pitch, no shuffle before cards returned to the machine.
By the end of it, my suspicions about the shuffler (that I discarded with difficulty in 2013) had returned. And it was PGD who insisted the shufflers are fair.
I went to a different casino a couple nights later that uses an auto shuffler but cuts the cards and pitches them to the players and dealer first, then burn-flop-burn-river. I won most of it back, just grinding. Reinforced my suspicion.
I simply do better when the cards are dealt by hand. I don't know why, but my experience has consistently run that way, though never quite as bad as this.
What are the odds of that?
It was a full table, one2six shuffler, board first, then all players, then dealer. No cut, no pitch, no shuffle before cards returned to the machine.
By the end of it, my suspicions about the shuffler (that I discarded with difficulty in 2013) had returned. And it was PGD who insisted the shufflers are fair.
I went to a different casino a couple nights later that uses an auto shuffler but cuts the cards and pitches them to the players and dealer first, then burn-flop-burn-river. I won most of it back, just grinding. Reinforced my suspicion.
I simply do better when the cards are dealt by hand. I don't know why, but my experience has consistently run that way, though never quite as bad as this.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 2nd, 2017 at 3:49:05 AM
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I think you would not dispute not winning within 22 hands is within the realm of not just possibility, but something to be expected if you play enough.Quote: beachbumbabsWhat are the odds of that?
I certainly act on such things, even if they are just superstitions. There is a certain Craps table I can't seem to beat except rarely. I prefer to avoid it - it's the "not having fun" thing. So I say, stay away from that table!Quote:I simply do better when the cards are dealt by hand. I don't know why, but my experience has consistently run that way, though never quite as bad as this.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 2nd, 2017 at 4:53:43 AM
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Quote: WizardHowever, to make a formal accusation of cheating, I like to see at least five standard deviations. In the case of coin flipping, that would be 22 straight losses (1 in 4,194,304 chance). Of course, more goes into it than that when making a case of cheating but that is a rough guide of where I'm at.
Just out of curiosity, why do you choose 5? Forgive me if I am wrong, but doesn't 3 show over 99% confidence that a event shouldn't be occurring?
Quote: Wizard
At some point, if I saw something super incredible, like 18 yo's in a row in craps
I only randomly read these forums, I know this is a running gag. Is the dude who claimed this still here?
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
August 2nd, 2017 at 5:29:40 AM
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WoV lost two prolific contributors over the 18 yo's in a row kerfuffle. AlanMendleson decided to leave after the flak he received because of his "18 yo's" claim. Then, member aceofspades also left, in a show of solidarity since he received similar flak for his 30 losses in a row claim.Quote: VCUSkyhawkI only randomly read these forums, I know this is a running gag. Is the dude who claimed this still here?
It's a shame they both decided to leave. I enjoyed their contributions to the forums.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
August 2nd, 2017 at 5:41:32 AM
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I think 5sd is a very extreme test. If playing at a gaff with a good long relationship I'd accept 4sd anomaly. But some new online gaff or introductory offer I would run a mile at a 3sd first day loss.Quote: VCUSkyhawkJust out of curiosity, why do you choose 5? Forgive me if I am wrong, but doesn't 3 show over 99% confidence that a event shouldn't be occurring?
No. Alan self excluded. Not to insult the guy but he had a flair for stubbornly arguing the outrageous. Reminds me of another prominent American.Quote:Is the dude who claimed this still here?
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 2nd, 2017 at 5:44:47 AM
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Well, craps is the game that I play the most. I don't believe in DI, nor do I think it can be beaten. I am a purely recreational gambler that most of the forum members seem to look on with disdain.
Not to restart that row that came from the thread (I only read a few blurbs from it), but I will say this. Memories aren't perfect, it is entirely possible that he got the count wrong or that another number slipped in there. Who knows, but it was no reason to bash the guy. One of the reasons I don't post often on here is because there are quite a few jackals that I just don't like dealing with.
Not to restart that row that came from the thread (I only read a few blurbs from it), but I will say this. Memories aren't perfect, it is entirely possible that he got the count wrong or that another number slipped in there. Who knows, but it was no reason to bash the guy. One of the reasons I don't post often on here is because there are quite a few jackals that I just don't like dealing with.
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
August 2nd, 2017 at 6:25:11 AM
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Quote: JoemanWoV lost two prolific contributors over the 18 yo's in a row kerfuffle. AlanMendleson decided to leave after the flak he received because of his "18 yo's" claim. Then, member aceofspades also left, in a show of solidarity since he received similar flak for his 30 losses in a row claim.
It's a shame they both decided to leave. I enjoyed their contributions to the forums.
It would be an understatement to say Alan was a prolific poster. I think he deliberately tried to get under everybody's skin. Not just with the 18 yo's but with the two-dice problem as well. I am not sorry to see him go.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 2nd, 2017 at 6:41:47 AM
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Quote: Wizardthe two-dice problem as well. I am not sorry to see him go.
Oh Mike, ya *******. Why did you have to remind me of that. Back to therapy.
$:o)
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 2nd, 2017 at 7:28:16 AM
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Quote: WizardQuote: JoemanWoV lost two prolific contributors over the 18 yo's in a row kerfuffle. AlanMendleson decided to leave after the flak he received because of his "18 yo's" claim. Then, member aceofspades also left, in a show of solidarity since he received similar flak for his 30 losses in a row claim.
It's a shame they both decided to leave. I enjoyed their contributions to the forums.
It would be an understatement to say Alan was a prolific poster. I think he deliberately tried to get under everybody's skin. Not just with the 18 yo's but with the two-dice problem as well. I am not sorry to see him go.
They still argue this to this day on his site (now owned by Dan Druff aka poker pro Todd Witteles).
Now there's a huge debate about loss rebates and naturally Alan's side thinks their stupid and -EV. Honestly, I have no idea why anyone bothers debating these clowns over there.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
August 2nd, 2017 at 10:46:47 AM
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I'm not sure if he said playing a loss rebate is -EV, at least not in a mathematical sense.Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: WizardQuote: JoemanWoV lost two prolific contributors over the 18 yo's in a row kerfuffle. AlanMendleson decided to leave after the flak he received because of his "18 yo's" claim. Then, member aceofspades also left, in a show of solidarity since he received similar flak for his 30 losses in a row claim.
It's a shame they both decided to leave. I enjoyed their contributions to the .
It would be an understatement to say Alan was a prolific poster. I think he deliberately tried to get under everybody's skin. Not just with the 18 yo's but with the two-dice problem as well. I am not sorry to see him go.
They still argue this to this day on his site (now owned by Dan Druff aka poker pro Todd Witteles).
Now there's a huge debate about loss rebates and naturally Alan's side thinks their stupid and -EV. Honestly, I have no idea why anyone bothers debating these clowns over there.
He likes to mislead everyone by playing word games and then he likes to argue with people. He seems to want to get people on the technicalities of the wording.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 2nd, 2017 at 12:13:54 PM
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He wasn't bashed that bad here over the matter of the 18 yo's in a row, people mostly just said it was more likely he was mistaken, gently enough. Perhaps a few jokes were thrown in. He chose to view that as "calling him a liar".
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
