How much rolls/rounds to proof a theory?

Hello,

I might be at the wrong spot on this forum, I am sorry if I am.
However, I recreated a slot in Excel because I felt the slot I play on might be a bit biased towards some settings.
The excel version of the game does indeed somewhat confirms the suspicion. I did 1.000.000 rolls in Excel and the statistics showed favor for some particular settings.

Now my question here is, after how many rolls or rounds of playing (the real) slots can I be confident about my findings?

These are my current statistics:
Total rounds played: 15214
Total profit: 520.6x bet

Which gives me a +EV of 103.42% in this example.

Haven't calculated my theoretical EV, I guesstimate I have an advantage of about 7% above the normal house edge.

I guess 15000 bets isn't a lot of proof yet. But I am wondering at how many rounds I can be somewhat certain of my findings.

Thanks for your time!
Boris


Edit: I should add that the max win on this particular slot is 100x my initial bet in total over all lines. There are no free games either. Also there are very little amount of smaller wins.

Left it running overnight. Outcome is slightly disappointing. But still in the EV+ region.

Current statistics:

Total Rounds: 71944
Total profit: 262.9x bet

Which calculates to +ev 100.365%.

Also let my excel file run for a total of 10 million bets to get more accurate statistics. Going to go through them and see if my settings can be altered a bit.

I realize my '+ev' is very meager at this point. We'll see :)

I fear your simulation is flawed and probably based on a flawed understanding of the slot.
If your sim is accurate, then you have found a slot that gives money away: They don't do that.
What's the stated RTP on the machine that you modelled?
Why does your simulation not reproduce that RTP?
Until you figured that out, you are nowhere towards testing any theory.

Quote: OnceDear

I fear your simulation is flawed and probably based on a flawed understanding of the slot.
If your sim is accurate, then you have found a slot that gives money away: They don't do that.
What's the stated RTP on the machine that you modelled?
Why does your simulation not reproduce that RTP?
Until you figured that out, you are nowhere towards testing any theory.

The stated rtp is 98.0%
My simulation does reproduce that rtp overall, but not for all lines for all symbols. Lines 1,2 and 3 give highest amount of prices. 45678 give pretty high prices in comparison to 9 till 20 too.

This specific slot allows the player to adjust the lines per 1 (although in order). And allows you to adjust the prices per symbol.

So now I adjusted my settings a bit more with the new data from excel. Maybe it will improve a bit :)

How did you map the slot machine settings into Excel? If you did something like video the slot machine or took notes of how frequent each of the symbols lined up where -- well.....that obviously can show some prejudice (is that the right word?) for the slot being more or less fair/unfair. If this is the method you used to come up with your data, then IMO you should go back and get more data points on that machine.

Worst case scenario: You'll figure out the slot is no good and your previous data "ran good" on certain symbols showing up. You're not going to lose any more EV than you already would have if you played it (since, I assume, you're going to play it, yes?).

Best case scenario: You'll confirm your previous data findings and that somehow the slot is gaffed and you can go play it later on and make EV.


Errr...I guess worst case scenario would be to confirm your previous data, even though perhaps you ran good both times on whichever symbols showing up...and that'd lead you down the road of being more confident the machine is gaffed, when in reality it's not. :(


Or perhaps you used a different method to collect data or whatever it is you're doing, and this is all wasted breath. Heh, whatever.




If you want to know how many rolls/spins/rounds/etc. you need before knowing the game is +EV....well, that's not going to happen as you can't be 100% certain. However, if you use some statistics you can figure out the standard deviation of the game, figure out how many rounds you'd need to play such that 4 SD's of play = EV, then that's how many rounds you'd have to play/sim before you'd be at the point where being DOWN 4 SD's is equal to 0 (ie: break even). And being 4 SD's away from the mean (mean being EV...and EV being whatever the machine's EV is supposed to be set to....not what you figure it to be).

Quote: RS

How did you map the slot machine settings into Excel?

Online slot machine and basically copied the reels from the code.

Quote: Boris

Online slot machine and basically copied the reels from the code.

Hang on. You're saying you could see the code? What was it some silly bit of javascript? Or are you some super hacker dude?

Quote: OnceDear

Hang on. You're saying you could see the code? What was it some silly bit of javascript? Or are you some super hacker dude?

It is javascript I believe. But I am by no means a hacker haha.