dwight56
dwight56
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September 7th, 2016 at 3:22:57 PM permalink
I posted this some time back but I think I put it in the wrong section. This is my system for blackjack, I have only got to try it twice but both have been successful and it has had good results in online practice where it is a shoe game. My unit is 25 bucks. First trial won 715 second won 505. I start each shoe at 1 unit and play until a win after that win I play one more hand win or loose the next bet is 2 units if that one looses say at 2 units if it wins go to 3 if win 4 if win 5 and keep betting 5 units till a lose. Now for some variables three straight losses anytime we return to one unit until a win then one hand again at 1 then to 2. Also after a push at 3 or more units return to 1 unit if win return to previous wager whether it was 3 4 or 5 units. Also after a BJ or Dealer BJ next bet is all ways 1 unit. I also use a up and pull when I am at 2 units it is 2,1,2,3,4,5,5,5,5 til loss. Or if starting at 1 it is 1,1,2,3,4,5,5,5 til loss. I think the best part of the system is long loosing streak just cost 1 unit at a time with no bet chasing and the bet spread is just 1-5. Well that is pretty much it and I will consider any advice. I have tried counting but there is not enough of an advantage and the dealer is just as likely to get a good hand when the count is good as you are. But I suppose counting works for some people I just have not heard any dollar results.
Wizard
Administrator
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September 7th, 2016 at 3:42:31 PM permalink
I hope you are not easily offended. This forum correctly does not think highly of systems and threads about systems have generally not been very civil.

My opinion, about any system, is that if it makes the game more fun for you, go ahead and use it. However, don't be deluded that it will help in the long run. Not only can't a system overcome the house edge, it can't even dent it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
OnceDear
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September 7th, 2016 at 3:43:28 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

I posted this some time back but I think I put it in the wrong section. This is my system for blackjack, I have only got to try it twice but both have been successful and it has had good results in online practice where it is a shoe game. My unit is 25 bucks. First trial won 715 second won 505. I start each shoe at 1 unit and play until a win after that win I play one more hand win or loose the next bet is 2 units if that one looses say at 2 units if it wins go to 3 if win 4 if win 5 and keep betting 5 units till a lose. Now for some variables three straight losses anytime we return to one unit until a win then one hand again at 1 then to 2. Also after a push at 3 or more units return to 1 unit if win return to previous wager whether it was 3 4 or 5 units. Also after a BJ or Dealer BJ next bet is all ways 1 unit. I also use a up and pull when I am at 2 units it is 2,1,2,3,4,5,5,5,5 til loss. Or if starting at 1 it is 1,1,2,3,4,5,5,5 til loss. I think the best part of the system is long loosing streak just cost 1 unit at a time with no bet chasing and the bet spread is just 1-5. Well that is pretty much it and I will consider any advice. I have tried counting but there is not enough of an advantage and the dealer is just as likely to get a good hand when the count is good as you are. But I suppose counting works for some people I just have not heard any dollar results.


Hi Dwight,
You'll maybe be pleased to know that I read your earlier post and the replies and conversations that followed.
It sounds like you enjoy playing that system, and since the objective of the gambler is often to have fun, to that extent it is a success.

When one plays blackjack without card counting, the house edge will mean that your starting bankroll will tend towards zero. It will take some massive leaps and falls on the way there, but long term that's where you are headed.

With flat bets, no system and no counting, you could plot a chart of your bankroll and it would show a random looking walk, which is about as often upwards as it is downwards. Only over the long term would you realise that it was heading downwards.

However, if you play a system like yours, or like martingale, or like any other common system, the shape of the chart would be very different. Maybe it would tend to have mostly tiny steps upward, interspersed with just a few massive slumps downward. ( That's how Martingale would look ). Maybe it would have mostly tiny steps downwards with just a few massive leaps upward ( That's how inverse Martingale looks ) I don't know what shape of chart your system would show. I could simulate it if I was bothered, Only over the long term would you realise that it was still heading downwards.

Such systems might make you think you have advantage. You don't. You REALLY, REALLY just don't. Without card counting, the long term trend is still the same: Downwards. It's still a tendency towards losing your bankroll. It's just a matter of time.

It's understandable that the shape of your own system chart, and your limited results so far make you think you have the game beat. But you would be SERIOUSLY misguided if you rejected the absolute certainty of the members of this forum that your system has no chance of long term success. By all means play your way, for the pleasure it gives you. But don't be a fool in thinking that you know something we don't.YOU DON'T

Oh, and card counting.... Yes, it can beat the game, but there's so much more to that story. You can be a great skillful card counter, but if you don't know the maths, you are still likely, almost inevitably, going to lose.

Have fun, embrace the variance, but believe the Mathematicians.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
dwight56
dwight56
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September 8th, 2016 at 11:48:37 AM permalink
I did not claim this system to give any advantage over blackjack. It simply takes advantage of streaks (which happen in Blackjack) which is what counters are looking for when they change from betting 1 unit to 8 or 16 or whatever. And also has 1 unit bet losses during loosing streaks. Can someone please point me out to testimonials of winning sessions of these card counters on here. I am just not sure it is worth the effort from what I have read. When I was counting I used a 1-8 spread and seemed when I got to a good count I lost more hands ( or just as many as when it was not good)?
dwight56
dwight56
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September 8th, 2016 at 11:51:07 AM permalink
Thanks Administrator, I did not claim this system to give any advantage over blackjack, simply that it has worked for me thus far. Good luck to you as well
Ibeatyouraces
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September 8th, 2016 at 11:54:22 AM permalink
Quote: dwight56

...It simply takes advantage of streaks (which happen in Blackjack) which is what counters are looking for when they change from betting 1 unit to 8 or 16 or whatever...


This is completely false. Counters don't raise or lower their bets based on past wins or losses. They do it based on the types of remaining cards left.

Anyway, have fun with the way you play, because in the grand scheme of things, that's all that matters.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Romes
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September 8th, 2016 at 12:34:47 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

I posted this some time back but I think I put it in the wrong section. This is my system for blackjack, I have only got to try it twice but both have been successful and it has had good results in online practice where it is a shoe game. My unit is 25 bucks. First trial won 715 second won 505. I start each shoe at 1 unit and play until a win after that win I play one more hand win or loose the next bet is 2 units if that one looses say at 2 units if it wins go to 3 if win 4 if win 5 and keep betting 5 units till a lose. Now for some variables three straight losses anytime we return to one unit until a win then one hand again at 1 then to 2. Also after a push at 3 or more units return to 1 unit if win return to previous wager whether it was 3 4 or 5 units. Also after a BJ or Dealer BJ next bet is all ways 1 unit. I also use a up and pull when I am at 2 units it is 2,1,2,3,4,5,5,5,5 til loss. Or if starting at 1 it is 1,1,2,3,4,5,5,5 til loss. I think the best part of the system is long loosing streak just cost 1 unit at a time with no bet chasing and the bet spread is just 1-5. Well that is pretty much it and I will consider any advice. I have tried counting but there is not enough of an advantage and the dealer is just as likely to get a good hand when the count is good as you are. But I suppose counting works for some people I just have not heard any dollar results.

So how about some math?

Since you're not counting you do not know the ratio of big cards to little cards and thus you can not take the "Effect of Card Removal" (a published mathematical paper by Dr. Edward Thorp at MIT) in to account. Without doing this you're subject to the house edge that is dictated by the rules of the game. Most "generic" games of blackjack are about a .5% house edge... again this is dictated by the rules such as S17 or H17, etc. After that you're again subject to lose more money pending how much your play differs from perfect Basic Strategy. Again, basic strategy is a proven mathematical method for playing each had to it's maximum expected value. It's been published, studied, redone, and retested year after year for decades and it still stands.

Now, I'm going to go ahead and "pretend" you play perfect basic strategy. You say your spread is about 1-5, but it takes some streaks to get to 5. So for the sake of math let's say your "AverageBet" is 2 units (it doesn't really matter if it's 1 unit or 5 units we're going to prove you're mathematically losing money).

Expected Value (EV) = (AvgBet*NumHands)*(HouseEdge)... so what's your EV after using your "system" for 1,000 hands given your average bet is $50 (2 units)?

EV = (50*1000)*(-.005) = -$250

But Wait! You said you're up money... How is this possible?!?!?! Well, there's a little thing called variance and standard deviations. Similarly when there's a political pole that says "Hillary is 50% +/- 5% to win" that +/- is the standard deviation.

So what's your EV +/- SD?

OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet (1.15 is the standard deviation of blackjack that again has been methodically calculated by great mathematical minds and proven time and time again).

OriginalSD = 1.15 * 50 = 57.5

SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD.... (again, formulas that have been mathematically worked out by minds greater than either you or me).

SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000) * 57.5 = 1818... This is 1SD, which comes with 68% confidence. If you don't understand SD's then I invite you to read about them on Wikipedia. To be 99% mathematically certain of our results, we need to use 3SD = 3*1818 = 5454 (rounding off the change).

So what does this all mean???

After 1,000 hands of play with your "system" you will EXPECT to lose $250 +/- $5,454. So the BEST you could do is be UP about $5100. The worse you could do is be DOWN about $5700. So you might think, hey, I could be up, right? Yes, but you're not expected to be... You have to be lucky to get that (has ZERO to do with your system).

So let's prove it has 0 to do with your system. Let's say you play this system your whole life, and you play 1,000,000 hands of blackjack. Where will you be at then?

EV(1,000,000 hands) = (50*1,000,000)*(-.005) = -$250,000
SD(1,000,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000,000) * 57.5 = $57,500... again we need to be 99% sure, so 3SD = $172,500.

So after a lifetime of this system (1,000,000 hands) you will EXPECT to lose $250,000 +/- $172,500... Thus the BEST you could possibly do is be down -$77,500... and the WORST you could do is be down -$422,500.

Now do you see why your system is a loser and your short term luck means absolutely nothing? Also, if you're playing "free" online software to test this out, it's been proven that a lot of the "free versions" of online casino games are gaffed to pay out more to get you to sign up for real money where you'll be subject to a much different house edge and thus lose your money... FYI.

Many card counters are successful. I've been successfully counting cards for over a decade as well as doing other AP exploits. The ones that are truly successful generally keep their mouth shut about who they are or how much exactly they've won because they don't want to get identified. If you tried your hand at card counting and came up a loser, then you were either under funded, didn't understand the mathematics behind Risk of Ruin (RoR), or didn't understand one of the other 100 things that go in to it. If you'd like to understand it further, please feel free to check out my articles that are hosted here on the Wizard of Vegas site under the articles section:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

===== THREAD DONE ====
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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September 8th, 2016 at 1:44:20 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

. . . streaks (which happen in Blackjack) which is what counters are looking for when they change from betting 1 unit to 8 or 16 or whatever.


No No NO!!!! Counters do not change thir bets because of streaks. There is no similarity to a counter ramping with the count and you ramping with the streak. The counter ramps when the odds favour him, you ramp for no such reason and under totally different circumstances.
Quote:

I am just not sure it is worth the effort from what I have read.

It generally isn't unless you are passionate about turning a massive bankroll into a slightly more massive bankroll.
Quote:

. . .when I got to a good count I lost more hands ( or just as many as when it was not good)?


If you didn't expect that???, You clearly didn't grasp the concept of counting at all!!!
A card counter will still experience losing more, or as many hands in good counts. Indeed in good counts, The player and the dealer both experience more blackjacks and 20s than when the count is low. BUT the counter will profit more from his wins, in agregate. NOT TO ANY PERCEPTIBLE EXTENT in any few shoes or sessions.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
dwight56
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September 8th, 2016 at 2:02:10 PM permalink
I was saying my system takes advantage of win streaks,
OnceDear
OnceDear
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September 8th, 2016 at 2:09:08 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

I was saying my system takes advantage of win streaks,


There is no advantage in win streaks.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
dwight56
dwight56
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September 8th, 2016 at 2:23:35 PM permalink
Thanks for that in depth mathematical evaluation of why I am a looser and you are a winner. It stands to reason if the Casinos felt they were loosing money to card counters they would ALL go to continuous shuffle games. In the meantime I will enjoy playing this game and the challenge that it is especially since I am playing on their money. And you can continue counting and computing. BTW I do play basic strategy so you don t have to "pretend" LOL. Also a huge part of winning is scouting a good table and knowing when to quit and cash in. I am sure you have the figures for that as well.
Romes
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September 8th, 2016 at 2:30:24 PM permalink
1) They can't go to shufflers because the public doesn't trust them. They get less patrons which results in less money. Their response it to bring 6:5 blackjack in to the limelight which none of the decent action betters (more than $10/hand) agree to play, thus all of the higher level tables are still shoe game, S17, 3:2, etc.

2) Counting and computing? It's called breathing. I can literally drink you under the table, carry on 5 conversations, and count and play deviations perfectly. It's called an ounce of effort and practice. When you ride a bike, do you constantly think "left foot, right foot, left foot, right foot!" or do you just pedal?

3) Without looking up the differences, what are the main differences from H17 to a S17 game in basic strategy? What about a 2D game vs a 6D game? What about no double after split? ...I'd be willing to bet if you had a blank BS sheet you couldn't fill it in 100% completely. That ups the house edge even further.

4) There are a few things that make scouting for a "good" table a real thing... Rules, penetration, and the count. A "good" table isn't one where everyone plays BS (what other players do have NO affect on your hand). A "good" table is not one where the table is "hot."

5) For anyone that is a basic strategy player you're definitely correct that money management is important. Otherwise one could lose a lot more than intended. When it comes to counting, you play as long as you believe you're not going to get heat. After all, more hours = more hands = closer to the long run and guaranteed mathematical profits.

I never said you're a loser, just that your system would never win in the long run of the game of blackjack.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
487tracydrive
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September 8th, 2016 at 2:42:34 PM permalink
" none of the decent action betters (more than $10/hand) agree to play, thus all of the higher level tables are still shoe game, S17, 3:2, etc. " Do the words Venetian & Palazzo ring a bell ? Just asking
AxelWolf
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September 8th, 2016 at 2:45:52 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

I was saying my system takes advantage of win streaks,

That was obvious, leave it to them math guys to not understand what you were getting at. Your system doesn't take advantage of anything, that's all in your imagination. It's been LUCK thus far period. You have no clue what would have happened had you been counting you could've made 5 times that amount.

Thus far BIG DEAL eventually you will lose if you keep doing it. Where as with card counting if you keep doing it properly it will win.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Joeshlabotnik
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September 8th, 2016 at 5:30:23 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

I did not claim this system to give any advantage over blackjack. It simply takes advantage of streaks (which happen in Blackjack) which is what counters are looking for when they change from betting 1 unit to 8 or 16 or whatever. And also has 1 unit bet losses during loosing streaks. Can someone please point me out to testimonials of winning sessions of these card counters on here. I am just not sure it is worth the effort from what I have read. When I was counting I used a 1-8 spread and seemed when I got to a good count I lost more hands ( or just as many as when it was not good)?



What I suspect you don't realize is that 'streaks" are an illusion. Having won or lost one hand does not increase or decrease the chances of winning or losing the next. If you win four hands in a row, the first three hands did not CAUSE the fourth result.

You may not understand that counters increase their bets when the deck becomes favorable, regardless of the results of the last hand(s).

Therefore, if you bet more when you perceive a winning streak, you're increasing whatever house advantage you have been fighting in the first place. If you decrease your bets when you're losing, that decreases the house edge. Therefore, whether or not you benefit from your "system" depends on whether it causes you to increase (bad) or decrease (good) the total amount you put in action.

It's very, very hard to cure yourself of the "streak' illusion, because our brains are hardwired to seek patterns, even when they're irrelevant or illusory. Casinos mercilessly exploit this tendency.

Also, on this forum at least, "It's been working for me" has less than no value. Any system, or no system at all, can win in the short run. Play, and win, over the course of 50,000 hands, and you might have something.
hoangle1979
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:52:05 PM permalink
this is My system: 1-1-1-2-2-4-4-8-8 = 31 units
dwight56
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September 29th, 2016 at 2:34:10 PM permalink
Just an update, system is still working fine, went to Casino today, played four hours left with 1215.00, best day it has had, I know there will be bumps in the road but been good so far. I have adjusted a couple of things since the first post for anyone who cares, they are as follow, My unit is 25 bucks, bankroll is 10k take 3k per casino trip. buy in for 500. first bet of each shoe is 1 unit play till win, after 1st win play 2 more hands that win or loose pushes count as nothing. After those hands begin a 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 until loose progression, also if after that initial win if you win the next 2 hands procceed that as a 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 progression. After a loss in either progression begin another 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 progression. If you have a double or split win or loss it only counts as one win or loss. When starting another progression if you loose 3 consecutive 2 unit bets you revert back to one unit and play just like we started the shoe with 1 unit also if Dealer gets blackjack or you have 2 consecutive pushes, or an Ace split, you must revert back to the 1 unit til win then 2 more, just as we done at the start of the shoe. This seems to work fine as the long losing streaks are for 1 unit while the good streaks are for 4 units. Personally if I get a push at the 4 unit I play the next hand at 1 unit and if it wins I then go back to 4 if win. I have found a push toward the end of a run indicates a loss more often than not. I play 8 deck shoe games das,h17 no surrender. I play BS with exeption of I hit 11vsA, hit 10-2vs4, stand on other 12vs.4, stand on any 3 card 16 that contains a 4 or 5, and use the rule of 9 on soft doubles.
Hunterhill
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September 29th, 2016 at 3:20:40 PM permalink
Everything sounds good except on odd numbered days of the week you should double up after a dealer Blackjack, unless that odd day is in an even month,in which case you shouldn't play,unless it's during a leap year.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
OnceDear
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September 29th, 2016 at 3:47:28 PM permalink
Quote: dwight56

Just an update, system is still working fine,



Holy 5h1t. !!!
I just did an in depth analysis of this. By my calculation it gives the player a 3.75% advantage over the house, by calculation in Excel v4.0
.Then I simulated it over 50 tests each of a billion hands, each starting with a $3k bankroll. The worst result was a $5,768,590 profit and the average profit was $723,543,985. At no point did any of the 50 bankrolls drop by more than $100
Over a more realistic test of 1,000 hours of live play, I estimated that the player would be in profit by between $125,000 and $2,750,000 approx.

I cannot conceive of how this system has taken over 200 years to come to light.
Well done Dwight.

I sincerely apologise for ever doubting you or your system. These guys on this forum just don't know what they are missing. Their loss, I guess.

You should be proud. Have more confidence in yourself and really hit the casinos hard before they catch on.

If I was you, I'd get a lawyer on the case straight away. Patent this system to stop anyone copying, stealing or using it.
Also, to stop the Casino spies from catching on and banning you, or closing all the worlds Blackjack tables, I strongly recommend that you delete all your posts that reveal the system.

ps. I already took a copy of your post and using your system with a £100,000 session bankroll, I'm already in profit by over £2,000,000 I drew a little bit of heat, so best not use your system in the UK for a few days.

Thank You Dwight. I love you. You are a genius. My hero.
ps, please send me a private message with your bank account details and log-in credentials, because I'd like to send you some money towards a new sportscar or something.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
djatc
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September 29th, 2016 at 8:36:20 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Holy 5h1t. !!!
I just did an in depth analysis of this. By my calculation it gives the player a 3.75% advantage over the house, by calculation in Excel v4.0
.Then I simulated it over 50 tests each of a billion hands, each starting with a $3k bankroll. The worst result was a $5,768,590 profit and the average profit was $723,543,985. At no point did any of the 50 bankrolls drop by more than $100
Over a more realistic test of 1,000 hours of live play, I estimated that the player would be in profit by between $125,000 and $2,750,000 approx.

I cannot conceive of how this system has taken over 200 years to come to light.
Well done Dwight.

I sincerely apologise for ever doubting you or your system. These guys on this forum just don't know what they are missing. Their loss, I guess.

You should be proud. Have more confidence in yourself and really hit the casinos hard before they catch on.

If I was you, I'd get a lawyer on the case straight away. Patent this system to stop anyone copying, stealing or using it.
Also, to stop the Casino spies from catching on and banning you, or closing all the worlds Blackjack tables, I strongly recommend that you delete all your posts that reveal the system.

ps. I already took a copy of your post and using your system with a £100,000 session bankroll, I'm already in profit by over £2,000,000 I drew a little bit of heat, so best not use your system in the UK for a few days.

Thank You Dwight. I love you. You are a genius. My hero.
ps, please send me a private message with your bank account details and log-in credentials, because I'd like to send you some money towards a new sportscar or something.



Lol all you made was 2 million foreign monies, I currently own CET with the proceeds from my winnings. I also bought 7 miatas one for every day of the week
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
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