Could this Match the Dealer system work?

I'm thinking about the following method for playing 2 hands heads-up against the dealer.

Table minimum: $15
Table maximum $1000
Side Bet: Match the Dealer with 4:1, 8:1, 10:1, 14:1, and 20:1 payouts
Number of decks of cards used: 8
Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: Hits
Player can double after a split: Yes
Player can double on: Any first two cards
Player can resplit to: 4 hands
Player can resplit aces: No
Player can hit split aces: No
Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: Yes
Surrender rule: Late
Blackjack pays: 3 to 2

For this strategy, I am betting I get a non-suited match within 34 hands, and I may cumulatively win between to $0-$5 on that particular match if I hit it between hands #1 through #34. If I were to hit another match (i.e. suited), I would make between $4 - $20 on hand #1 or $3,394 - $13,570 on hand 34. The idea is to keep my progressive betting low enough that with a non-suited match, I win back my cumulative bets and wind up around break even. Any other match would pay out far more the further I get into my betting strategy. I can also accumulate losses for the 8:1 payout until hand #38, 10:1 payout until hand #40, 14:1 payout until hand #44, and 20:1 payout until hand #50.

Bank roll would not be an issue to consider, as I just want to consider the probabilities since I can't find anything online about it. I would also consider jumping in mid-shoe after tracking cards in the deck.

Probabilities: Any match = ~14.4% Non-suited match = ~10.7%

Here's how I'd start:

1. table bet 14. side bet: 1
2. table bet 14. side bet 1
3. table bet 14. side bet 1
4. table bet 14. side bet 1 ---- Break even payout with 4:1 win, so increase next side bet.
5. table bet 13. side bet 2
6. table bet 13. side bet 2
7. table bet 13. side bet 2 ---- Essentially break even payout with 4:1 win, so increase next side bet.
8. table bet 12. side bet 3
9. table bet 12. side bet 3 ---- Break even payout with 4:1 win, so increase next side bet.
10. table bet 11. side bet 4 ---- Essentially break even payout with 4:1 win, so increase next side bet.
11. table bet 10. side bet 5
12. table bet 9. side bet 6
13. table bet 5. side bet 10
14. table bet 3. side bet 12
15. table bet 1. side bet 15
16. table bet 1. side bet 19
17. table bet 1. side bet 24
18. table bet 1. side bet 30
19. table bet 1. side bet 37
20. table bet 1. side bet 47
21. table bet 1. side bet 58
22. table bet 1. side bet 73
23. table bet 1. side bet 91
24. table bet 1. side bet 114
25. table bet 1. side bet 142
26. table bet 1. side bet 178
27. table bet 1. side bet 222
28. table bet 1. side bet 278
29. table bet 1. side bet 347
30. table bet 1. side bet 434
31. table bet 1. side bet 543
32. table bet 1. side bet 678
33. table bet 1. side bet 848
34. table bet 1. side bet 999
35. table bet 1. side bet 999 --- $242 loss on non-suited match, $3,394 - $13,570 on any other match


Setting myself up for epic failure? Thoughts?

EPIC FAILURE, you cannot overcome the house edge using a progression system

Quote: Bruins21

I would also consider jumping in mid-shoe after tracking cards in the deck.

Setting myself up for epic failure? Thoughts?

If the side bet is countable, and you are allowed to jump in mid shoe and play only when you have an advantage, then if properly bankrolled, you could make money, assuming the small negative expectation of the base game does not outweigh the positive expectation of your side bet.
My guess is the second is more likely true, that you are setting yourself up for epic failure. Before you really even consider doing this, will you have the balls to put $999 on the side bet?

And welcome to the forum!

Never seen a casino allow more then 500 on side bet out side of Australia and Macao

Yeah, not sure where they're allowing more than 25 max. Even 100 max is rare...

Foxwoods in CT will do it.

Still won't work and I would double check that I don't think the side bet can exceed the main bet in which case you would be giving up more ev