aceofspades
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November 23rd, 2015 at 7:44:40 AM permalink
Got it in my Spam email
No counting
A new BS chart
Thoughts lol

Really...really?
Ibeatyouraces
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November 23rd, 2015 at 7:49:42 AM permalink
Scam....
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Romes
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November 23rd, 2015 at 8:04:53 AM permalink
"Fact: Casinos have made it almost impossible to tilt the odds in your favor because of their ongoing efforts to complicate basic strategy and eliminate effective card counting." Yeah, that's an opinion, not a fact... I can count cards at 99.99% of casinos I walk in, and tilt the odds in my favor.

"But playing perfectly is no longer practical in most casinos." In regards to BS... apparently it's no longer practical?

"Even if you find that rare table where you can count cards effectively..." Every single casino I've been in has had a beatable game.

"...it is not a sure thing that you will lose an amount based on that small percentage. Likewise, if you adjust basic strategy and change bets based on precise card counting, which gives the player an edge, you are not guaranteed to win anything." Actually, I'm guaranteed my EV +- 3SD, but hey, who's counting ;).

Apparently This Is The Strategy?
You can also forget about casino recommended flat betting since it does not take advantage of hot streaks nor lessen the effects of cold streaks. This is the heart of Hot Streak Blackjack Strategy and can be explained with three scenarios in which you play ten hands...the first has you losing all ten, the second winning all ten, and the third alternating wins and losses five times. The table minimum is $10 and the initial bet $25. So your bet will be $25 each hand if you are flat betting...but assume a $5 betting change after each hand with the streak method.

1. Reduce bet $5 after each loss...

2. Increase bet $5 after each win...

end strategy

lol... I actually read a lot of this page as though it was satire on The Onion or something. I got a lot of laughs... The pictures of the girls almost sold me though =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Romes
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November 23rd, 2015 at 8:12:07 AM permalink
I wonder how many people Mr. Pete Caldwell has spammed with that crap who've actually bought in to it?

I'm also wondering how bad the Atlanta area must be if he can't find one beatable game of blackjack (via counting) =P.

He makes me think less of the Georgia Institute of Technology =/.

You can have more laughs by listening to him on some radio program promoting his "system" here: http://www.highrollerradio.net/Blackjack_Pete.html

(I emailed the radio show to give them a hint about the inaccuracies of what they're promoting and to challenge them to get Pete back to have a discussion with me about his "system")

(I also emailed Pete with some simple explanations, basic math, the statement that what he's doing is wrong, and linked him to my articles so that he could learn how to actually win at blackjack)

...We should TWEET HIM about his "system" @BlackjackPete and let him know how GREEEEAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTT it is lol.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Romes
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November 23rd, 2015 at 9:18:44 AM permalink
Email Sent to Pete =)...

Quote: Romes


Hi Pete,

My name is Romes. I've been an Advantage Player for over a decade, am published on the Wizard of Odds/Vegas sites, and a prominent member in all of the prominent gambling forums (WoV, blackjackinfo, blackjacktheforum, bj21, etc, etc, etc).

Another prominent member on the WoV forum apparently had his email spammed with a link to your Hot Streak Blackjack "system." He made a thread about it, a discussion ensued, and I thought "oh boy, another 'system', let's check it out..."

Without fail your system, like all others that don't actually pay any attention to the house edge, is a losing system. I can mathematically prove your system is a losing system, whether it be over the course of 100 hands, or 10 million hands.

Another concerning issue is that you somehow think card counting isn't possible in today's games. Though, realistically I'm sure you're aware it's 100% still possible and you simply state that to try to help sell your system. I've yet to find, in the last decade, a casino I couldn't walk in to and find a beatable game of blackjack. Your claims that you can't do it are nothing more than false statements proven wrong by simply walking in to any casino.

As I'm sure you're aware, at no point in time are you changing the house edge, or paying attention to the effect of card removal and natural swings in the house edge during the game of blackjack. This means no matter when you bet, how much you bet, what "streaks" have occurred previously or you think will occur, you're placing bets in to a negative house edge game.

Simple mathematical concepts, I'm going to assume you're familiar with, such as Expected Value, Expected Return, etc, immediately show you that you have a losing system.

Expected Return = TotalWagered * HouseEdge, where Total Wagered is your AvgBet*NumHands

So let's say you play 1 hand, at $10, on a "typical" .5% house edge blackjack game.

Expected Return = (10)*(1)*(-.005) = -0.05

If you up or lower your bet on the next hand, you're not taking in to consideration the house edge at all. Streaks are 100% meaningless and nothing more than a Voodoo tactic to attract players to your system. If your systems says you're in a winning streak and you should up your bet to $20 the next hand, let's look at your mathematical expected return:

Expected Return = (20)*(1)(-.005) = -0.10

All you've done is told the player to LOSE MORE MONEY, in the long run.

I've noticed you carefully disclose you don't "guarantee" anything, because I assume you know what you're doing is selling a losing system so that you can profit off of losing players actually looking to change their game.

It's sad, distasteful, and just mathematically inept to sell your system, and I hope you have a good long thought about it and the type of person it makes you.

If you'd ever like to actually learn how to win at the game of blackjack, please feel free to review my published articles:

Article 1: https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

Article 2: https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

Article 3: https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/



Romes

Playing it correctly means you've already won.
aceofspades
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November 23rd, 2015 at 9:55:12 AM permalink
Love the email Romes - wonder if you will get a response?!?
Donuts
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November 23rd, 2015 at 10:17:02 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Email Sent to Pete =)...



not rekt ☐
rekt ☑
Romes
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November 23rd, 2015 at 11:45:31 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Love the email Romes - wonder if you will get a response?!?

I hope so! I don't even want to cuss the guy out, I'd love to have a discussion on why his system is a losing system. Once he realizes it, or admits he knows it already, then there could be a whole other discussion =P.

I really hope I hear back from the "radio show" he made an appearance on toting his system. That way any unfortunate people who heard that can get a bit more educated and his system can earn the status it deserves... a scam.

In the email I sent to the radio station I challenged them to have both of us on to discuss his "system." I wonder how that would go =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
aceofspades
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November 23rd, 2015 at 11:53:44 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I hope so! I don't even want to cuss the guy out, I'd love to have a discussion on why his system is a losing system. Once he realizes it, or admits he knows it already, then there could be a whole other discussion =P.

I really hope I hear back from the "radio show" he made an appearance on toting his system. That way any unfortunate people who heard that can get a bit more educated and his system can earn the status it deserves... a scam.

In the email I sent to the radio station I challenged them to have both of us on to discuss his "system." I wonder how that would go =D.



Appointment listening!
Dieter
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November 23rd, 2015 at 4:59:22 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I'd love to have a discussion on why his system is a losing system.



His system is not a losing system. His system is selling a losing system.

His system is probably working, sadly.

Selling a system to gamblers is either the second or third best way to make money from gambling.
May the cards fall in your favor.
beachbumbabs
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November 23rd, 2015 at 7:22:26 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

His system is not a losing system. His system is selling a losing system.

His system is probably working, sadly.

Selling a system to gamblers is either the second or third best way to make money from gambling.



The first being owning a casino?

Garbage system IMO.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Romes
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November 25th, 2015 at 10:15:32 AM permalink
Well, I might as well keep the interesting post going... Pete contacted me back. Suddenly he's not so confident in his system?

Quote: Pete

Romes,

I appreciate your comments and a chance to summarize the intent of Hot Streak Blackjack Strategy. Here are the three key points which I have tried to convey on the website:

1.) There are no guarantees with this strategy...and the long term odds are NOT in your favor.

2.) Even if you can find a table where you can count cards efficiently, there is no guarantee that you will win in the short term.

3.) For the player that goes to his local casino every week or month, or takes a couple of weekend casino trips every year, I believe that this system is better for them than just flat betting. Blackjack is very streaky in the short term and my experience has been that this strategy does a good job in exploiting streaks.

Thanks again for giving me an opportunity to explain.

Pete Caldwell


My obligatory response:

Quote:

Hi Pete,

Thanks for getting back to me to clear a bit of confusion up. I suppose I'm still quite concerned with #3 you listed above. I can show you mathematical proof (my first email) that any system that tells a player to bet more, for any reason (streaks, etc) is WORSE than flat betting. For if you do not change the house edge (by tracking when it shifts) then you're upping your Expected Loss every time you bet more than the minimum. Assuming streaks/etc will help "in the short term" is mostly just VooDoo nonsense that has no mathematical backing what-so-ever. For the player that goes once a week or month, they will eventually level out to the expected value of the game... winning 49% of their hands, losing 42% and pushing 9%. Streaks are meaningless and more importantly unpredictable, even in the short term.

A quick Google of you also brought back a radio show appearance you did in which you stated you don't believe card counting is even possible anymore, to which I'll still be sure to let you know, it's quite possible and profitable. There are tons and tons of pro's at many online sites I mentioned in my first email that discuss mathematics, the game, etc, every day. These are full time players that count cards for a living; it definitely still works and is applicable in today's games.

Unfortunately, it seems as though you're attempting to make an AP play of your own, and sell a non-working, non-profitable system to players who buy in to your hype about streaks and how counting doesn't work (even though it still very much is available and does). Again, I can mathematically prove your system will lose. It's not a gamble if it will lose. They don't have a 'chance' to win. If someone plays your system over and over, they will lose. With that knowledge and mathematics, I find it quite unethical to continue pushing a system that you know is a losing system; it's essentially stealing from the blind.


Romes

Playing it correctly means you've already won.
aceofspades
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November 25th, 2015 at 10:18:22 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Well, I might as well keep the interesting post going... Pete contacted me back. Suddenly he's not so confident in his system?

Quote: Pete

Romes,

I appreciate your comments and a chance to summarize the intent of Hot Streak Blackjack Strategy. Here are the three key points which I have tried to convey on the website:

1.) There are no guarantees with this strategy...and the long term odds are NOT in your favor.

2.) Even if you can find a table where you can count cards efficiently, there is no guarantee that you will win in the short term.

3.) For the player that goes to his local casino every week or month, or takes a couple of weekend casino trips every year, I believe that this system is better for them than just flat betting. Blackjack is very streaky in the short term and my experience has been that this strategy does a good job in exploiting streaks.

Thanks again for giving me an opportunity to explain.

Pete Caldwell


My obligatory response:

Quote:

Hi Pete,

Thanks for getting back to me to clear a bit of confusion up. I suppose I'm still quite concerned with #3 you listed above. I can show you mathematical proof (my first email) that any system that tells a player to bet more, for any reason (streaks, etc) is WORSE than flat betting. For if you do not change the house edge (by tracking when it shifts) then you're upping your Expected Loss every time you bet more than the minimum. Assuming streaks/etc will help "in the short term" is mostly just VooDoo nonsense that has no mathematical backing what-so-ever. For the player that goes once a week or month, they will eventually level out to the expected value of the game... winning 49% of their hands, losing 42% and pushing 9%. Streaks are meaningless and more importantly unpredictable, even in the short term.

A quick Google of you also brought back a radio show appearance you did in which you stated you don't believe card counting is even possible anymore, to which I'll still be sure to let you know, it's quite possible and profitable. There are tons and tons of pro's at many online sites I mentioned in my first email that discuss mathematics, the game, etc, every day. These are full time players that count cards for a living; it definitely still works and is applicable in today's games.

Unfortunately, it seems as though you're attempting to make an AP play of your own, and sell a non-working, non-profitable system to players who buy in to your hype about streaks and how counting doesn't work (even though it still very much is available and does). Again, I can mathematically prove your system will lose. It's not a gamble if it will lose. They don't have a 'chance' to win. If someone plays your system over and over, they will lose. With that knowledge and mathematics, I find it quite unethical to continue pushing a system that you know is a losing system; it's essentially stealing from the blind.


Romes





The "There are no guarantees with this strategy" is his escape clause — and is basically a rule of life on planet Earth lol
TwoFeathersATL
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November 29th, 2015 at 6:38:53 AM permalink
Quote:


The "There are no guarantees with this strategy" is his escape clause — and is basically a rule of life on planet Earth lol


Jhit, this guy watches me play for an hour and thinks he figured it out?
And now he's got the balls to sell it?
For ten bucks I'll improve his system by 100%, PM me.

The above is posted as a joke.

For $100,000 I'll actually teach you my system, PM me.
That is also posted as a joke.
It's not for sale...
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Dieter
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November 29th, 2015 at 6:41:52 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

The first being owning a casino?



That's a surprisingly effective way to have the odds of every game be in your favor. ;)

Cost of entry into system-selling is much lower, however.
May the cards fall in your favor.
muleyvoice
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November 29th, 2015 at 9:06:42 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

His system is not a losing system. His system is selling a losing system.

His system is probably working, sadly.

Selling a system to gamblers is either the second or third best way to make money from gambling.




" Gamblers will buy anything " Told to me by a guy who was selling a tout sheet on dog racing, based on biorhythms.
TomG
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November 29th, 2015 at 10:18:00 AM permalink
Quote: Pete

Blackjack is very streaky in the short term and my experience has been that this strategy does a good job in exploiting streaks



Another question:

Is this the only evidence you have that blackjack is more "streaky" than craps, roulette, or the Wheel of Fortune machine?

And straight to the point:

Do you truly believe that nothing more than changing bet sizes can turn a negative expectation game into a positive expectation game?
aceofspades
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November 29th, 2015 at 1:33:43 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Another question:

Is this the only evidence you have that blackjack is more "streaky" than craps, roulette, or the Wheel of Fortune machine?

And straight to the point:

Do you truly believe that nothing more than changing bet sizes can turn a negative expectation game into a positive expectation game?



I believe you are quoting Romes quoting the system seller
beachbumbabs
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November 29th, 2015 at 2:50:32 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

I believe you are quoting Romes quoting the system seller



I believe you are correct. Good catch. Fixing it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
BleedingChipsSlowly
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November 29th, 2015 at 3:10:52 PM permalink
Discussed in a thread on this site three years ago: HOT STREAK BLACKJACK STRATEGY (BY PETE CALDWELL)
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
aceofspades
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November 29th, 2015 at 3:35:10 PM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

Discussed in a thread on this site three years ago: HOT STREAK BLACKJACK STRATEGY (BY PETE CALDWELL)




WOW good catch :)
Romes
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November 30th, 2015 at 8:25:03 AM permalink
I assume this will be the last e-mail exchange I have with Pete, as if he can understand middle school mathematics then he knows with certainty and proof that his system is essentially telling people to "lose more money." He said he'd shut his site down if after thought he came to the realization he's not helping anyone...

Quote: Pete Email

Hello again,

I guess we can agree to disagree. In the short term, I really believe that you can throw the math out the window and do better by betting more in your good sessions and less in the bad ones. I don’t consider myself as being lucky (never won the lottery, any drawings, etc.), but my experience over the years indicates I do better with changing my bets than I do with flat betting. However, I do appreciate your comments about which I will think long and hard...and if I conclude that I’m “stealing from the blind”, I will shut down my website.

Thanks again and best wishes in your gambling endeavors.

Pete Caldwell



Any what will be my final response:

Quote: Romes

Hi Again Pete,

If you can throw math out the window in the "short term" and do better, then why not go exactly against basic strategy? Heck, someone could get "lucky" and win every hand doing the opposite of basic strategy, right?

For that matter, why not do the infamous Martingale betting strategy? It'll certainly work most of the "short term" but why do you think NO ONE has ever made any long term money doing it?

People whom read your information more than likely aren't going to play the game just once or a few times (though you're still encouraging them to lose more money in the short term too). This is the "system" they'll subscribe to for their lives, the long term... and in the long term, the Expected Value (EV) is very, very simple to calculate. EV = NumHands*AvgBet*HouseEdge. You're not changing the house edge, which is "generically" and commonly around -.5% (using perfect basic strategy). All you're doing, in the long term, is telling them to "bet more" when they're in "lucky streaks." To this, all you're doing is UPPING their AvgBet, which will (in the long run) equate to nothing more than a larger expected loss.

Examples:

SHORT TERM
Since you said you want to focus on the short term, let's look at that too...

1) A person flat bets $10 for 3 hours tonight getting an average of 80 hands per hour at an "average" -.5% house edge game, playing perfect basic strategy of course. What's their EV?

EV = (240)*(10)*(-.005) = -$12

So a person playing one small 3 hour session tonight flat betting $10 at an average game can (with perfect basic strategy) can expect to lose $12 on average.

2) Your system. Now say instead of flat betting $10, in your system they identify they're in a streak a couple times over the course of 3 hours and bet $15, $20, $25, or whatever. All this is doing is upping their Average Bet for this one 3 hour session... ROUNDING DOWN let's pretend it only ups their average bet to $15. What is their EV now?

EV = (240)*(15)*(-.005) = -$18

So by telling the person to bet more, when it has nothing to do with the actual shifting in the house edge (card counting) does nothing more than up their average bet and up their expectation to now lose $18 instead of $12. You've effectively done nothing but told the person to LOSE MORE MONEY in their "short run" session of just 3 hours on 1 night.


LONG TERM
- If a player plays once per week for 4 hours, averaging 80 hands per hour, that comes out to be 320 hands per week, or 16,640 hands per year.

1) Person only flat bets their entire life betting $10 per hand. If they play from the time they're 30 to 60 ONLY, then in this 30 year spread they will have played just under 500,000 hands. Given they play an "average" -.5% house edge game with PERFECT basic strategy, their EV is as follows:

EV = (500,000)*(10)*(-.005) = -$25,000

Thus, in the lifetime of a flat betting $10 player playing perfect basic strategy, they can expect to lose $25,000.

2) Your system. Now say instead of flat betting $10, in your system every so often they're having a "lucky" streak and your system tells them to bet more. Be it $15, $20, $25, $30, etc, etc, it doesn't really matter. All it's doing (and it's quite simple to see/understand) is upping their Average Bet over their lifetime. So instead of $10, let's say their average bet goes up to $15 (though it's probably more, I'm being generous and rounding down). Let's take a look at their EV now:

EV = (500,000)*(15)*(-.005) = -$37,500


I hope you can take mathematical proof that telling anyone to bet more for any reason other than tracking the shifting change in house edge (card counting) is simply telling them to lose more money. Your system, mathematically proven, is telling players to lose more money over the course of their blackjack careers. And do recall, we're assuming they only play from 30-60, never mind most people play their entire lives until they die. We're also rounding down on how much your system ups their average bet. Given all of these factors "rounded" in your favor, it's still blindingly obvious that your system encourages people to LOSE MORE MONEY throughout their lives.

I'll expect the website to be shut down sometime soon then?


Romes

Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wizard
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November 30th, 2015 at 11:25:32 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Selling a system to gamblers is either the second or third best way to make money from gambling.



Where on the list is selling books and lessons on dice influence?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TwoFeathersATL
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November 30th, 2015 at 12:31:53 PM permalink
I believe Dieter placed that as second, but he may correct me.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
aceofspades
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December 2nd, 2015 at 4:11:25 PM permalink
Impressive!!!

BleedingChipsSlowly
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December 2nd, 2015 at 5:18:03 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Impressive!!!

Yes, impressive that so many suckers will rise to the bait.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
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