Applying betting systems with an edge
Quote: OnceDearI suspect that the Op believes he has identified a section of the wheel, maybe relative to some start point, where there is an overall 1% advantage but where a smaller part of that section has a better edge. ....
I would bet on every number with an advantage in proportion to that advantage. As for each bet, I recommend (advantage)/(36*bankroll).
Before betting a lot of money I hope the sample size collected on the alleged biased wheel is in the thousands of spins and statically vetted.
Would you play 12 or 18?
What if you have got 18 numbers with 1,5% and 27 numbers with +1%.
Which play wins with the less risk?
A 1% edge is too small to make much money. The reason is that the playing conditions will wear on that edge at times, creating the illusion that the edge has evaporated. The biggest problem with such a small edge is that you won't know when the wheel has been repaired, or when/if a new defect is canceling out the old bias.
A 1% edge is fine for card counters, but for roulette APs it's too small to even cross the street.
Quote:Do you really believe that Bob Nersesian´s clients are all BJ players?
Yes we've used Bob before for our roulette situation.
Quote: KeyserIf the edge is only 1%, then you should find a better biased wheel.
...
A 1% edge is fine for card counters, but for roulette APs it's too small to even cross the street.
Actually it's pathetic for any game where you cannot get 10,000 wagers per month, IMHO.
Sometimes, you get higher edges , meanwhile, you must survive with the least you get.
We know +1% edge on half a wheel is scarse and fluctuations fool you and you believe your edge is higher, lower or banished
10k wagers a month is plenty of work done when no other wheel offers any better
As many wheels end with weak edge, this thread is destined to search ways to improve flatbetting. I began to surrender to vary any way but flatbetting
Ybot
Quote: KeyserIf the edge is only 1%, then you should find a better biased wheel.
A 1% edge is too small to make much money. The reason is that the playing conditions will wear on that edge at times, creating the illusion that the edge has evaporated. The biggest problem with such a small edge is that you won't know when the wheel has been repaired, or when/if a new defect is canceling out the old bias.
Yes we've used Bob before for our roulette situation.
We might Just be happy any money wagged had an advantage of at least 1%
With such a small edge we should cover any numbers keeping an edge to yield more in the end
Bj card counters guess they are the ubique being watched
Quote: ybotFinding an edge might take too many work.
Sometimes, you get higher edges , meanwhile, you must survive with the least you get.
We know +1% edge on half a wheel is scarse and fluctuations fool you and you believe your edge is higher, lower or banished
10k wagers a month is plenty of work done when no other wheel offers any better
As many wheels end with weak edge, this thread is destined to search ways to improve flatbetting. I began to surrender to vary any way but flatbetting
Ybot
YBot, Sincerest good luck. I expect that you want to actually wager on your percieved edge until further analysis reveals a better opportunity.
-2.6% edge on half a wheel is scarse and fluctuations fool you and you believe your edge is higher, lower or banished.
You are unlikely to have the edge that you perceive. Try it with cold hard cash if you so wish.
Incidentally. No offense meant, but is English not your first Language? What about Simplified English, AKA American :o) ?
* http://jakubmarian.com/is-american-english-simplified-and-british-english-traditional/
Suspension for insulting all Americans? :o)
I'm a Limey. Forgive me: it's what passes for humour over here :o)
I get the impression OP maybe has French as his first Language?
Quote: ybotWhat if you have got 18 numbers with 1,5% and 27 numbers with +1%.
Which play wins with the less risk?
Mike (Wizard) Answered you with the best technique.
Quote: OnceDearMike (Wizard) Answered you with the best technique.
Nice oncedear, my Mother language is spanish. I apologize if I mispelled a Word or wrote any sentence wrong.
I take Mike advise
Quote: ybotNice oncedear, my Mother language is spanish. I apologize if I mispelled a Word or wrote any sentence wrong.
I take Mike advise
Your English is better than my Spanish :o)
Mathematical systems are not AP tools
Quote: ybotHi, we take for granted we win easily with an edge, for instance 1% playing even money bets.
Flatbetting yields this advantage no matter what we try to do. We must stand the 1% edge fluctuations as well.
What about applying a mild MM or system to make an attemp to increase this 1% or win easier?
I was thinking about Oscar¡äs grind system, first introduced by PHD Allan Wilson in his "Gambler¡äs guide".
This system has got 99.8% in winning 1 units with 1000 BR and 99.95% with 5000 br. These %s are with -2.7%
What if we play it with +1% edge?
regards
ybot
firstly, i don't know how to judge this 1% edge, if betting a number, you win by the ratio of 1% after 20,000 spins if not 200,000,, it is not really a safe edge, in random numbers, it happens even house edge is 2.7%.
2nd, i will use D'alembert if it is by 18 numbers and if i want to win small and see wins easily.
it is to add 1 for each losing, deduct 1 for each winning.
the maths is one loss, one win, you win 1.
20 losses, 20 wins, you win 20.
100 losses, 100 wins, you win 100.
if only you know you can come back to tie from wins and losses. even after 10,000 times.
maybe it is not to lose always the 1st hand.
you can start with 3.
the bankroll needs to be 500-10000 units.
if i have a lot of time in gambling, i will use Paroli 124816.
the distribution of wins and losses... but the bankroll needs to be about 300 units.
i cannot really finish this post.
each system has goodness and badness. i did too many tests on them. no perfect one available.
finally, my answer is that flat bet is good. because you can have bigger betting unit. if it is 18 numbers, Like Wizard said, 1/100 of all bankroll is good.
and if you really have this stable(why stable? how can it be?) 1%, just keep betting flat, or do Oscar's grind as you wanted. don't change it here and there. this and that. then it is the worse system, in my opinion. because by my last visit to Macao, i should have been a winner, but not, it is just because i know too many betting systems, i did too many changes. finally, i get lost.
Quote: tomchina123firstly, i don't know how to judge this 1% edge, if betting a number, you win by the ratio of 1% after 20,000 spins if not 200,000,, it is not really a safe edge, in random numbers, it happens even house edge is 2.7%.
2nd, i will use D'alembert if it is by 18 numbers and if i want to win small and see wins easily.
it is to add 1 for each losing, deduct 1 for each winning.
the maths is one loss, one win, you win 1.
20 losses, 20 wins, you win 20.
100 losses, 100 wins, you win 100.
if only you know you can come back to tie from wins and losses. even after 10,000 times.
maybe it is not to lose always the 1st hand.
you can start with 3.
the bankroll needs to be 500-10000 units.
if i have a lot of time in gambling, i will use Paroli 124816.
the distribution of wins and losses... but the bankroll needs to be about 300 units.
i cannot really finish this post.
each system has goodness and badness. i did too many tests on them. no perfect one available.
finally, my answer is that flat bet is good. because you can have bigger betting unit. if it is 18 numbers, Like Wizard said, 1/100 of all bankroll is good.
and if you really have this stable(why stable? how can it be?) 1%, just keep betting flat, or do Oscar's grind as you wanted. don't change it here and there. this and that. then it is the worse system, in my opinion.
1% edge playing 18 numbers for instance, it yields 18 units every 100 spins played.
+100 units every 100 spins played is +2.7% at a singlezero wheel.
Dálembert falls very easily with this edge, the purpose is to improve a flatbetting scheme.
I have been searching and testing many other ways, I long for finding what I look for.
There are many other ways to test via excel tools.
regards
Quote: Dealer314it's plain and simple folks...everybody wants to go in there and make thousands in one f#$%ing day it's unbelievable. The reason people lose is because of that exact reason! You encounter bad beats from long hours of play. Go in the with a goal of ok I want to win 4 units I don't care what it is, blacks or quarters or nickels I don't care. If you think about it, it's not hard to win 4 units and then color up and leave. This greatly reduces the chances of seeing a bad beat with martinangle betting system if your not so greedy. For example roulette or craps or bacarrat, it doesn't matter. The chances of you being there and encountering that bad beat in a matter of 20 minutes is very rare so you take your 4 units of whatever color and leave then come back the next day. It's more of a bad place bad time type of thing..it doesn't happen often.
Actually, I've seen it happen quite often that you cant even manage to win four units.
Quote: darkozActually, I've seen it happen quite often that you cant even manage to win four units.
That's where martingale betting comes into play. Since you need to win so minimal your chances of seeing a bad beat in one quick session is very minimal. Like I said wrong place at the wrong time. O and to top it off all you need is 2 martingale bets to win which is very easy on bacarrat. Try to win 2 units 2 times = 4 units :). Don't be greedy please. I don't care what the math says. The wizard of odds clearly states that using this betting system SHORT TERM is efficient. As long as your profits are above your loses then you're good to go. I mean lets be honest the chances of you going to play a few hands and instantly seeing a 8+ loss streak is pretty slim...probably get hit by a car before that happens. I've used this method 4 times in a row now and have won. Just seeing if I can maintain all my profits and not go negative.
Quote: Dealer314That's where martingale betting comes into play. Since you need to win so minimal your chances of seeing a bad beat in one quick session is very minimal. Like I said wrong place at the wrong time. O and to top it off all you need is 2 martingale bets to win which is very easy on bacarrat. Try to win 2 units 2 times = 4 units :). Don't be greedy please. I don't care what the math says. The wizard of odds clearly states that using this betting system SHORT TERM is efficient. As long as your profits are above your loses then you're good to go. I mean lets be honest the chances of you going to play a few hands and instantly seeing a 8+ loss streak is pretty slim...probably get hit by a car before that happens. I've used this method 4 times in a row now and have won. Just seeing if I can maintain all my profits and not go negative.
Glad it's working for you. It's all one long-term session, btw, as I understand it, even if you break it up.
Warning. This is a PG-rated board. Mask your swears (or don't make them). I fixed the one above, this time.
Quote: darkozActually, I've seen it happen quite often that you cant even manage to win four units.
Or even just 1 for that matter.
Sometimes serious gonads are of no avail ;-(
