ybot
ybot
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:07:45 AM permalink
Hi, we take for granted we win easily with an edge, for instance 1% playing even money bets.

Flatbetting yields this advantage no matter what we try to do. We must stand the 1% edge fluctuations as well.

What about applying a mild MM or system to make an attemp to increase this 1% or win easier?

I was thinking about Oscar´s grind system, first introduced by PHD Allan Wilson in his "Gambler´s guide".

This system has got 99.8% in winning 1 units with 1000 BR and 99.95% with 5000 br. These %s are with -2.7%

What if we play it with +1% edge?

regards
ybot
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:12:21 AM permalink
Quote: ybot

Hi, we take for granted we win easily with an edge, for instance 1% playing even money bets.

Flatbetting yields this advantage no matter what we try to do. We must stand the 1% edge fluctuations as well.

What about applying a mild MM or system to make an attemp to increase this 1% or win easier?

I was thinking about Oscar´s grind system, first introduced by PHD Allan Wilson in his "Gambler´s guide".

This system has got 99.8% in winning 1 units with 1000 BR and 99.95% with 5000 br. These %s are with -2.7%

What if we play it with ?

regards
ybot

it's still a +1% edge
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:21:56 AM permalink
No "Betting System" will gain you any edge, of any kind. The edge comes from other things. In blackjack, the "average" 1-2% edge comes from counting cards, not some kind of betting system.

If you already have a defined edge, then there is such a system that tells you exactly how much to bet with your BR/variance/RoR/etc... That's Kelly Criterion.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ybot
ybot
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:29:49 AM permalink
AP business takes many realms to get an edge.

KC is a classical tool to play.

OG systems longs for +1 to reset. I wonder how it worked with an edge.

We know that +1% edge is a fact. The quest is to get more than 1% or get it with lower fluctuations.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:45:16 AM permalink
If you have a 1% edge, betting won't increase your edge... It will increase your EV, Variance, and Standard Deviations (as well as RoR for bankrolls). The only way to actually increase the edge is again with outside knowledge/etc. If you have a static 1% edge on a game, that's because of the way the game is set up, the rules, or outside information you may be getting. So long as the rules, or this information don't change, it doesn't change the EV/edge of the game. So you can bet 1 unit or 100 units and your EV will change, but your edge will not.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ybot
ybot
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:58:11 AM permalink
As a system starts with small chips your BR requierements are not as the maximum bet scenario.

Cowing a +1% edge takes huge task. In case we play table limits we must stand it with a big BR.

In this example we play even chances with +1%, it doulbles the edge of playing 9 numbers with 1% edge on average.

But, is it the same to play 18 numbers with +1% and +2% on 9 numbers? How do fluctuate?

What if we played 24 or more numbers with +1%?
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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November 19th, 2015 at 9:30:29 AM permalink
If you somehow had a roulette game where all the inside numbers had a 101% RTP, just bet all of them every spin for 0 variance and a constant 1% increase in bankroll. For what it's worth, an example of such a game would be a 100-segment wheel where inside numbers paid 100-to-1 (that is, 101-for-1). Bet on all of them, lose 99, win 100 = +1 per 100 wagered with 0 variance. Do that for 100 spins, get to 200 bankroll, then bet 2 units on each; do that for 50 spins, then bet 3 units on each, etc. After a short while you'll break the bank.

Math problem: if a spin of this +EV roulette game takes 60 seconds, how long would it actually take for you to bankrupt a casino's $10M bank starting with $100 in your pocket. Assume nobody else is playing.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
ybot
ybot
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November 19th, 2015 at 9:42:32 AM permalink
Mathextremist, a nice example of +1% with 0 variance, something impossible.

There are variables that could give +1% or more playing from 12 to 30 numbers in roulette, such as bias play or VB.

The more numbers covered the better.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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November 19th, 2015 at 9:55:21 AM permalink
Ah, well it's quite simple then. When cowing a 1% edge across 9 numbers clearly one must consider BR requirements. However if you move to 18 numbers and it's a Thursday evening then you're more likely getting about 1.24%, not 2%. When the 3rd full move of the year arises though, this is the time to strike at the full 24 number mark. You see, when the moon is full (for the 3rd time only) then and only then will the gravitational affect on your betting chips be enough to gander the full 2% advantage. If that doesn't work then you can always get a cottage on an island and contemplate the meaning of the number 17.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ybot
ybot
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
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November 19th, 2015 at 10:07:48 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Ah, well it's quite simple then. When cowing a 1% edge across 9 numbers clearly one must consider BR requirements. However if you move to 18 numbers and it's a Thursday evening then you're more likely getting about 1.24%, not 2%. When the 3rd full move of the year arises though, this is the time to strike at the full 24 number mark. You see, when the moon is full (for the 3rd time only) then and only then will the gravitational affect on your betting chips be enough to gander the full 2% advantage. If that doesn't work then you can always get a cottage on an island and contemplate the meaning of the number 17.



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