rickydhood
rickydhood
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Joined: Nov 8, 2015
November 8th, 2015 at 6:39:44 AM permalink
In the world of my "Real Casino" app I am a millionaire. In real life I'm a banker with an occasional $500 bankroll and a mortgage on my house. I've been having some fun lately with a Martingale-type system on the roulette wheel. I bet exclusively on the P12(which I call the smalls so I can say "you're killing me smalls") M12 and D12 (The Bigs) I pick my partner based on the group that has hit the least over the past 10 spins and stick with it for each run (pure fallacy), doubling my bet after each loss. I prefer this 2:1 payout over the 1:1 options as I actually see some accumulation of winnings after a few successful runs.

If my mediocre statistic/algebra skills serve me well there should be just under a 2% chance of losing 10 spins in a row at the 2:1 payout and a 0.13 % chance of losing 10 spins in a row at the 1:1 payout (black/red) Does this mean the 2:1 bet is 15 times more risky than the 1:1 bet when comparing the probability of losing 10 spins in a row?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 8th, 2015 at 9:15:56 AM permalink
If you want to get pedantic, it's about 13.786 times as risky, but yes - but with greater risk comes greater reward. On the 1:1 bets, using a Martingale, any win will result in you gaining whatever your minimum bet was since your last win, whereas with the 2:1 bets, the longer your losing run is, the more you end up with overall if you win (for example, a win after 9 losses makes you (2 x 512) - (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 + 256) = 513 times your original bet ahead.
Canyonero
Canyonero
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:34:23 PM permalink
What if you were to only increase your bet by one unit each loss? (On a win, you start from beginning.) Your best case scenario is a win after the second or third attempt for a $30 net win. A success after five tries gets you even. After that you are looking to limit your loss. If you manage to lose 10 times in a row and quit you are down $550 (2.2%).


Bet | Win | Prob. Loss
10 | 20 | 68,4%
20 | 30 | 46,8%
30 | 30 | 32,0%
40 | 20 | 21,9%
50 | 0 | 15,0%
60 | -30 | 10,3%
70 | -70 | 7,0%
80 | -120 | 4,8%
90 | -180 | 3,3%
100 | -250 | 2,2%


I might try that some time going up to five times for a 15% risk each run of losing $150.
rickydhood
rickydhood
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Joined: Nov 8, 2015
November 8th, 2015 at 5:53:19 PM permalink
Good idea. Thanks for the input everyone. It's an interesting strategy.
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