blackbaron
blackbaron
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 9
Joined: Jun 5, 2015
October 20th, 2015 at 6:05:34 AM permalink
I read a lot of article and posts about freespin slot expected value calculation but i'm unable to find my goal value: how is expected value percentage get from freespins ?
For the purpose i provide concrete data i'm working, as i hope someone can help me (or correct ) my assumption.
Premise freespin rules:
During freespins (FS) player can retrigger fs.
2 or more wild symbols scattered fs, in details:
2 wild -> win 5 fs
3 wild -> win 10 fs
4 wild -> win 15 fs
5 wild -> win 20 fs

Slot cycle : 1488620000
Base slot payout: 0,89644 --> 89,644%

|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|wild --------------------------- 2 ----------------- 3 -------------------- 4 ------------------------ 5---------
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|hit wild ------------------ 701576 ------------- 26064 ----------------- 832 ---------------------- 16 -----
|probab (hitw/cycle)-- 0,0004712929 --1,7508833684E-005-- 5,5890690706E-007-- 0,000000010748210
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Here start my doubts, and i aks help to describe next steps to achive how fs increase my "base slot payout".
I try follow rule describe onbut without significant value (i think) as i here to ask clarify.

Thanks all will reply to me
Exoter175
Exoter175
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 206
Joined: Sep 28, 2015
Thanked by
Dorukan
October 20th, 2015 at 11:50:37 AM permalink
Quote: blackbaron

I read a lot of article and posts about freespin slot expected value calculation but i'm unable to find my goal value: how is expected value percentage get from freespins ?
For the purpose i provide concrete data i'm working, as i hope someone can help me (or correct ) my assumption.
Premise freespin rules:
During freespins (FS) player can retrigger fs.
2 or more wild symbols scattered fs, in details:
2 wild -> win 5 fs
3 wild -> win 10 fs
4 wild -> win 15 fs
5 wild -> win 20 fs

Slot cycle : 1488620000
Base slot payout: 0,89644 --> 89,644%

|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|wild --------------------------- 2 ----------------- 3 -------------------- 4 ------------------------ 5---------
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|hit wild ------------------ 701576 ------------- 26064 ----------------- 832 ---------------------- 16 -----
|probab (hitw/cycle)-- 0,0004712929 --1,7508833684E-005-- 5,5890690706E-007-- 0,000000010748210
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Here start my doubts, and i aks help to describe next steps to achive how fs increase my "base slot payout".
I try follow rule describe on https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/1488-expected-value-of-free-spins-on-slot/ but without significant value (i think) as i here to ask clarify.

Thanks all will reply to me



I hate to debunk your thread in the first post, but you're already calculating something inherently wrong here. The "base slot payout" is not calculated including "free spins" or "bonus" games, those are additional to the base slot payout, but are not included in it.

Now, if all you want to do is figure out the value of free spins in a bonus, all you have to do (assuming this machine doesn't progressively increase the value of free spins in a given game, because some do) is take the base payback % and multiply it by the number of free spins, then multiply by the betting denomination/value (depending on whether or not X or Y credits go towards a progressive, feature, or bonus).

On a game like China Shores that pays 2x in the bonus but otherwise doesn't do anything to increase or decrease payouts or likelihoods of bigger symbol stacks and/or bonus re triggers, you can break it down like this. 20 spins x (betting denomination, lets call it .60) x2 x.61(payback percentage)= expected win. The expected win is $14.64, the total "betting power" is $24 in wager. The value per spin was .732 cents per spin.
blackbaron
blackbaron
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 9
Joined: Jun 5, 2015
October 20th, 2015 at 4:37:20 PM permalink
base slot payout not include additional games feacture like bonus. It include only base reel payout. For brevity i haven't show details.
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