Will you tell me why this is bad plz

Elementary craps player here who knows I "shouldn't" hedge, but was curious to hear some more educated reasons why this is a bad strategy.

Playing the dark side
- $10 don't pass
- $10 lay on the 4
- $10 lay on the 10

After the comeout you take down the "lay" bets (if it survives) and then play max odds on the don't pass

Al from Chicago must be a billionaire with this strategy. Don't see how it can fail.

Quote: WHEREDMYMONEYGO

Elementary craps player here who knows I "shouldn't" hedge, but was curious to hear some more educated reasons why this is a bad strategy.

Playing the dark side
- $10 don't pass
- $10 lay on the 4
- $10 lay on the 10

After the comeout you take down the "lay" bets (if it survives) and then play max odds on the don't pass

I don't necessarily find it as a "bad" thing. There are three ways to roll the 10, three ways to roll the 4, and six ways to roll the 7. I will often lay the 4/10 on my own rolls during my comeout as I"m trying to roll exactly that. I don't really put faith in the belief that DP+Odds is any better with or without the 10/4 laid, and ultimately the whole theory is based on the idea of "cold tables" or this cemented idea that a 7 is rolled once every 6 rolls, and a 4/10 every 12 rolls, etc. You yourself can't really "bank" on that idea, since the "long term" is much bigger than the span of our own lives. I've had great runs with the 4/10 laid where I've made thousands in the night, and I've had nights where I've lost 400-500 within 15 minutes because of how streaky the rolls were going.

All of that said, the only "disadvantage" to your setup here, is the $10 DP. You're at a disadvantage for the 7/11 for that bet alone, despite winning on the 7 with the lays. If the 11 rolls you lose your DP, if the 12 rolls your DP gets barred. A complete hedge in this sense would look more like this.

-$10DP
-$10 lay on the 4 (which you can't do)
-$10 lay on the 10( which you can't do)
-$1 Yo (Eleven)


I also know guys who do that, plus add a Pass line bet to counter the DP, and then toss a dollar midnight in, as the replacement for the yo bet for a strict "Don't".

As far as the rest, I don't know of any physical casino out there that will let you lay the 4 or 10 for $10.

what is typically the minimum for lay bets?

you're betting $30 instead of $10, each bet having negative expectation. Since the EV of each bet is undefeatable, you need look no further.

Looking at the total EV is far better than mulling over the old 'I win this much, lose this much' on the various possibilities [that's always going down the wrong road]

It should lower the variance if you want that, but IMO to do that you just bet less on the odds.

Quote: WHEREDMYMONEYGO

what is typically the minimum for lay bets?

Typically $40 is a minimum for lays on the 4/10. The reasoning behind this is usually because of the Vig, and the casino having to round down the vig, essentially giving you a "vig-less" lay.

Quote: Exoter175

Typically $40 is a minimum for lays on the 4/10. The reasoning behind this is usually because of the Vig, and the casino having to round down the vig, essentially giving you a "vig-less" lay.

What he said. Really, there's nothing "wrong" with any betting system though, just know it can't beat the house in the long run. That said if it makes the game more fun for you, any betting system is right!

Quote: WHEREDMYMONEYGO

what is typically the minimum for lay bets?

Multiples of $20 at my local shops. $20 to win $10 and then they hit $1 on the vig (ouch).

Quote: WHEREDMYMONEYGO

Elementary craps player here who knows I "shouldn't" hedge, but was curious to hear some more educated reasons why this is a bad strategy.

Playing the dark side
- $10 don't pass
- $10 lay on the 4
- $10 lay on the 10

After the comeout you take down the "lay" bets (if it survives) and then play max odds on the don't pass

Well, let's break down the EV of your system... Every bet IS SEPARATE and has an associated Expected Value (EV):

EV($10 don't pass) = (10)*(-0.0136) = -$0.14

The others are slightly trickier because you have to leverage the odds of certain things happening:
EV($10 lay on the 10) = (3/36)(-10) + (6/36)(5-.5) = -0.8333 + 0.75 = -0.083
EV($10 lay on the 4) = (3/36)(-10) + (6/36)(5-.5) = -0.8333 + 0.75 = -0.083

EV($10 lay on 4 & 10) = (3/36)(-10) + (3/36)(-10) + (6/36)(10-1) = (-0.83) + (-0.83) + 1.5 = -0.16

What this says is: when a 4 is rolled, you lose $10, when a 10 is rolled, you lose $10, when a 7 is rolled, you win $5 & $5 but pay $0.50 (each) in Vig, and on the other rolls, you're going to take the bet down. Also notice from the probabilities you're going to win twice as often (6/36 as opposed to 3/36) but when you win you win less than half because of the Vig.

So, on the Come Out roll ONLY, your EV is: EV($10 don't pass) + EV($10 lay on the 10) + EV($10 lay on the 4) = (-.14) + (-.083) + (-.083) = -0.306 ...as opposed to your EV on the Come Out roll ONLY if you just bet $10 on the Don't Pass: -$0.14.

All that changes after the come out is you drop off the negative EV from the 10 and the 4... and the come out 7 that kills your don't bet. Your odds don't do anything for your expected value since they're an even fair bet.

Conclusion
After all of that rambling... Basically you're not really hedging, just making numerous bets. The more bets you make on a craps table the more negative expectation you have for any one throw/point. The only reason this system is "bad" is because you're betting more bets (on the 4 and 10 lays) which will add negative expectation to you in the long run. To further my point... Why don't you just lay EVERY number instead of only the 4 and 10? You'd win xxx more on the come out 7... Though you'd also lose 1 extra whenever the come out throw hits the board (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10). In the end it all is relative to the negative expectation of each bet summed up.

It's not a bad strategy, and if you have fun doing it, then have fun with it... Just don't ever think by hedging negative bets, or making more negative bets, that you can somehow flip the house edge in the players favor.