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OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 17th, 2015 at 6:10:45 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Aaaauuuggggghhhhhhhh!!!!! (Runs from the room screaming in horror)...lol



It's seeing AM's avatar that did it. Waking up screaming again. need therapy.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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September 17th, 2015 at 7:02:14 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Hi,

I have a betting system. it's amusing but totally worthless in terms of profitability.

HI
ok
so why read more?

looks like turning 250 into 275 is a blast

so cool
and a betting system is cool too
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
the chance that happens in a 0% HE game = 250/275 or close to 90.9%
no matter how you bet
at 91 out of 100 you win 25 = 2275
9 out of 100 you lose 250 = 2250 for a net profit of fun = 25 on average

but BJ has a HE so we round even lower
say you win 90 out of 100 at best
at 90 out of 100 you win 25 = 2250
10 out of 100 you lose 250 = 2500 for a net loss of fun = 250 on average

any number of average wins and losses can be calculated
I guess it is fun!
**********************************
I hope my Angel game goes to the official game status as I bet again BIG $$$ on the OVER at 9 runs
hope the rain stays away for a few hours more, off to Vegas to collect me winnings
i think
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 18th, 2015 at 12:27:11 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

HI
ok
so why read more?



Promoting FUN. Debunking 'Hit and Run'

I wrote it for two reasons: There are always target bettors and streak bettors convinced that they could turn a modest bankroll into a huge bankroll just by targetbetting or Marty 'hit and run' or 'not getting greedy' I wanted to show such misguided folks why repeating such simple 10% victories is not helpful long term.

But I also wanted to confess that such (near) 90% probabilities do exist, as you have confirmed.

It all happened to coincide with me having a long winning streak myself where I turned £250.50 into what is so far £2100. ( I won another 100 with 1x£50 doubling hand yesterday while chasing a bonus opportunity)

It was and still is a fun way to win and lose money. I like fun and will surely lose the money back with just as much fun. The probability of having done it, when you have done it, is 100% :o)

Quote: sally


The chance that happens in a 0% HE game = 250/275 or close to 90.9%
no matter how you bet.



I love that formula and that fact. I don't think it's understood or used enough.

      Absolutely best case probability of success = bankroll / (bankroll + target profit)

and that House edge reduces that probability.

      Realistic probability of success = bankroll / (bankroll + target profit +( total action x house edge))

and that such a number, which is smaller than 1 is multiplied by itself at every mini-session.

I'm a bit annoyed at my winning streak as it defeated my argument against promoting this style of play.... Because it WAS fun.

Thanks.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 18th, 2015 at 3:27:36 AM permalink
LOL. More funnnnnn....

Remember in this thread, I said that I had taken a £100 bonus card. The wagering requirements on those bonuses are rubbish, so I consider them expendable.

Well, after my winning streak, after withdrawing £1500 of my bankroll/account balance, I had £50 of real money and £450 of bonus money and restricted bonus winnings. I messed about with small £10 to £25 bets and about an hour ago was at £751.50 total. (701.50 is locked in bonus funds)

£750, I thought.... lets see if we can take that to £900. After all that stands a chance of very roughly 750/900 = 83% ( from my rule of thumb.

So... I decided £20 and then £50 flat bets.
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Promptly found myself down to £251.50 Doh! I had actually passed through £900 I was getting my come-uppance and that EV was to prevail today.
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How I wish I had started a screen grab.

£50 flat betting still, I clawed my way up to £801.50..... from £251.50...... And I have some comp pounds for that and have pushed towards those stupid wagering requirements.

I couldn't make this sh1t up :o) About to screen grab the last hour's betting record as evidence for y'all ( will edit this post to add link.)

http://www.oncedear.com/silly_run_of_luck_2.mp4

Don't try this at home !
I'm going for the Grand now. Screen grab will be on and I'll let you watch me hit goal (~80% probable) or crash and burn. :o)
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Edit.... I Went for it.
http://www.oncedear.com/pushing_my_luck.mp4
I couldn't make this sh1t up: £801.50 to £1026.50 in ten wagers.

I know: I know: It's not sustainable and 'long term' I cannot end up ahead.
I'm going to reign it back now, to spin out the agony of my inevitable downfall.....
..... or shall I push on?
I actually have to push on, to meet the wagering requirements of that pesky £100 bonus card.
Remember: This started at just £250.50 and I'm now sat with £50 real cash balance, £1500.50 withdrawal in pending and £976.50 of restricted funds. Not bad for 3 days play.
All, total luck, of course. Normal variance which happened to favour me, this time.
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Well £1250.50 is the next obvious target. What happens next ? :o)


Read the spoiler above. Use probability theory to predict what happens next. Really. What was likely to happen? What has happened.
I don't want to tell you yet, but what followed involved a LOT of £50 flat bets and one tiny bet.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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September 18th, 2015 at 8:11:11 AM permalink
Now now, just because I'm not at my computer in the evenings doesn't mean I "want none of it" lol =).

If you're average bet was $50, or even higher if you were doing a mix of $50/$100 then of course (as you stated) it's going to jack up your EV (to a bigger loss) but more importantly your SD's so that you CAN in fact get to $1k or $2k or whatever it was you said. We were arguing different things I believe. I was referring to your original $7.50 bet saying there's no way in 1k hands with THAT average bet you could get to $750+ as it would be in the 4th SD out.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 18th, 2015 at 8:22:10 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear



Don't try this at home !!!!!!!!

I'm going for the Grand now. Screen grab will be on and I'll let you watch me hit goal (~80% probable) or crash and burn. :o)
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Edit.... I Went for it.

http://www.oncedear.com/pushing_my_luck.mp4
I couldn't make this sh1t up: £801.50 to £1026.50 in ten wagers.

I know: I know: It's not sustainable and 'long term' I cannot end up ahead.
I'm going to reign it back now, to spin out the agony of my inevitable downfall.....
..... or shall I push on?
I actually have to push on, to meet the wagering requirements of that pesky £100 bonus card.
Remember: This started at just £250.50 and I'm now sat with £50 real cash balance, £1500.50 withdrawal in pending and £976.50 of restricted funds. Not bad for 3 days play.
All, total luck, of course. Normal variance which happened to favour me, this time.
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Well £1250.50 is the next obvious target. What happens next ? :o)


Read the spoiler above. Use probability theory to predict what happens next. Really. What was likely to happen? What has happened.
I don't want to tell you yet, but what followed involved a LOT of £50 flat bets and one tiny bet.



OMFG I don't believe it !!! I cannot wait for you to read and respond to the spoilers above.

So, I went for the grand from £801.50 breezed that in 10 bets.

So, then I was at 1026.50 and set the next target at 1250.50. After all, my rule of thumb said that objective stood (nearly) a 1026/1250=82% probability from where I was sitting.

That was a grueller. Flat betting £50, I bobbled between about £750 and £950 for very many bets and I thought 'No bl00dy chance' But, I eventually made it to £1250.00 A quick £2 wager and my objective of £1250.50 had been met with £1.50 to spare. I had £1252.00 as balance!

Bear in mind that is mostly being treated as restricted funds by the casino, because I'm still playing through the wagering requirements of that pesky bonus card. But hey-ho, I was now about half way through the stupid betting requirement. If I achieve that, all funds become unrestricted cash.

So what kind of idiot would set a new goal of £1500.00

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Yup. What a plonker. I went for it. Upped my flat bet to £75. I have to get some action in to finish those wagering requirements, so what the heck.
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Here's me trying to prove that I can't keep re-risking my bankroll because I'm multiplying fractional probability by fractional probability time after time.
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I know it cannot work. I should not have got this far. this is bl00dy stupid.
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£1252.00 to £1500.00 flat betting £75. What were my chances. Rule of thumb anyone?
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Well. You'll be pleased to hear that things really went bad. I mean REALLY bad. So bad in fact that I found myself heading south
That bad!
I knew that Those wagering requirements and my goal would soon be history. I was truly screwed.
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Down 75
Down
Down
Down
Balance = £239.50
oh hum. Thank goodness the universe is doing as it should. It's such a relief.
Maybe fate had smiled on me and I'd met those wagering requirements. Maybe I was able to actually cash out these 239 pathetic pounds.
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I checked my comp points to see.
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I hadn't even achieved the stupid wagering requirements. Close but no cigar.
So, I carried on flat betting at £75 to put myself out of my misery.
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FFS!!!!!!!
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My balance now stands at £1552.00 !!!!!!! ( No I hadn't topped up. I really REALLY did flat bet from £239.50 back up to £1552.00 )
And I've earned £30 in comp points !!!!!!!

Please. will somebody fix the universe. This aberration is ridiculous.

I invite Mike, Romes, RS or Sally to PM me for proof ( in as much as anything can be proved.)

It seems that in practice, I'm crap at debunking 'systems'.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 18th, 2015 at 8:24:56 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Now now, just because I'm not at my computer in the evenings doesn't mean I "want none of it" lol =).

We were arguing different things I believe.



I agree. I had muddied the waters in my excitement. It was only that I went back to betting history that I realised how much variance I'd unleashed with my mostly £50 bets. Sorry about any confusion. Your maths is fine, given the correct input.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 18th, 2015 at 10:15:23 AM permalink
I've supplied Romes with a list of counts of wager value. Average wager was £34.31 Median was 50
Total action up to that time was 41484. So, I should have expected to lose 0.55% x 41484 =£228
Up to that time I'd won £2150.50 + £100 bonus card

by my rule of thumb

probability, ignoring house edge and ignoring bonus card =250.50/2400.50 = 10.4%
considering house edge as 0.55%

probability of success ~ 250.50/(2400.50 + 228) = 9.5%

That's over the whole exercise so far. But I play on till wagering requirement has been met on that bonus card, or until I bust out.

I'll be interested to see what Romes makes of that. I won't steal his thunder

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Edit.
It's now session over. Either I busted out or I met the wagering requirement on that pesky bonus card
:o)
This never was a system. Just a means of playing. It far from went how I expected.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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September 18th, 2015 at 1:39:59 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

 Realistic probability of success = bankroll / (bankroll + target profit +( total action x house edge))

actually that is not accurate to use that way as variance again is left out
and if it is accurate in some examples it is only by luck

there are formulas for house edge Risk of Ruin and Target hitting (Win Goal)
Alan Krigman had an Excel sheet that i updated (he is dead these days)
so here is a link to it in Google Docs
use sheet 1
https://goo.gl/J5KFzc

the more skewed the average bet (and variance) is the worse the results
simulations come in handy in that case

just an example

the survival values from the number of rounds is independent from RoR and Success meaning RoR/Success no matter the number of rounds played.

RoR/Success with a limit on rounds is another different formula

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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September 18th, 2015 at 2:05:14 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Quote: OnceDear

 Realistic probability of success = bankroll / (bankroll + target profit +( total action x house edge))

actually that is not accurate to use that way as variance again is left out
and if it is accurate in some examples it is only by luck

Sally



Thank's Sally. I should have referred to that workbook.

Do you concur with my simple rule of thumb which I derived from the following first principles

My rule of thumb
Best probability of success, ignoring HE is (Initial bankroll)/(initial bankroll+ target profit) ?

I base this on the following two rules or assertions
'No betting system can improve the average return or average EV.'
'Fair rate of return on a wager with known probability is directly calculated from that probability and by implication, vice versa'
I add into the mix that 'no bet is made that can lead to exceed the goal'. IMHO That's important.

So the 'session' becomes equivalent to a single, fair, fixed odds wager.

I then modified the formula to approximately account for expected loss to the house advantage.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge. But I believe my rules of thumb to be workably realistic.

And I LOVE Variace. I would never neglect her, for she is the angel that allowed my £250.50 to end it's 3 day outing as
£3603.50 of unrestricted cash


By Romes' assertion that was pretty darned lucky. We both estimate it as a >2SD event. Romes asserts that would have been extremely, almost impossibly unlikely if I'd used smaller bets than I did. I don't disagree with him on that.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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