I'm curious about the long-term outcome of fairly complicated betting system.

I know the old mantra of "betting systems are worthless" and "it's just a good way to lose more money quicker", but I have been tweaking one and looked around and did not find it anywhere so I was curious about how it would fair over a lot of hands (greater than 10,000).

The idea is a type of hybrid between the Martingale and the Paroli systems that goes like this:

- Starting and minimum bet is $5

Win
- If you win you triple to $15, if you win that, you double to $30, if you win that hand as well you lock in winnings and go back to the minimum, (basically the Paroli).

Lose
- If you lose the first bet you still triple to $15, if you lose that you triple to $45 if you lose that you go just over double to $110 and then if you lose that you go to $225 and then continue doubling after each loss up to $7,200 (10 straight losses) at which point you would cut your losses and walk away losing just over $14,000 (the minimum bankroll to make this work).
- As soon as you get a win in any losing streak, though, you reset back to the starting bet.

A few other rules
- If you lose when you are on a winning streak. If you were on $15 you go on as if you had lost $15 and triple to $45 (and follow the same strategy as above). If you were on $30, you double and a half up to $75 and then continue to double up until $4,800 at which point if you lose, you cut your losses and walk away until next time.
- Treat surrenders as normal losses and blackjacks as normal wins. Pushes are null and you just repeat whatever step you are on.
- Follow basic strategy regardless of what step you are on unless you are on the final loss (i.e. $7,200 or $4,800) at which point you would not double or split and instead just hit.

Other notes
- The winning walk away amount for me is $3,000 and in all of the games I have tried, this normally takes about 2 hours. I have yet to lose money.
- The general idea is you win money on the initial triples after losses as well as after surrenders and on loss level 4+ blackjacks. The winning streaks are just icing.
- On my back of the napkin calculations, the odds of having to walk away are about 1 hand in 1,000 or 0.11%, so the idea is to win enough before that happens to still come out ahead.

I'd love to hear your thoughts or experience with anything like this, thanks so much!

Your "odds of walking away" appear to be based on the odds of losing 10 hands in a row. Remember, each win earns you at most $50 since your previous win (and most of the time, your wins will earn you just $5), whereas a string of losses costs you 700 times that.

Also remember: the higher the sum of your bets gets, the more you are expected to lose through the House Advantage.

The max loss is actually around 2800 times the min bet I think.

But the idea is that you will (on average) not lose 999 times out of 1000 so an average win of $15 of hand puts you ahead. I'm just not sure how this plays out over 100,000+ hands so I don't know what the actual average win is.

Quote: OvenMitts

The max loss is actually around 2800 times the min bet I think.

But the idea is that you will (on average) not lose 999 times out of 1000 so an average win of $15 of hand puts you ahead. I'm just not sure how this plays out over 100,000+ hands so I don't know what the actual average win is.

You are walking on semi-sacred grounds. Not sure you are going to be rec'd very well. But since you asked, and if you had, a winning system (so far), why would you share it? You're just a nice guy? You want advice to take your winnings home and never enter a casino again?
I may be wrong, but I suspect you will not be welcomed by many here.
I'm always out on a limb, I'm glad you posted. 2F

Quote: OvenMitts

I know the old mantra of "betting systems are worthless" and "it's just a good way to lose more money quicker", but I have been tweaking one and looked around and did not find it anywhere so I was curious about how it would fair over a lot of hands (greater than 10,000).

hmmmm. welcome.

I really cannot be ar53d to do your very simple maths or simulation for you.

I suggest you do a simulation in excel before betting one more dollar. It's oh so easy to do. I did similar in a previous post if you care to search it out. Excel is your friend.,

You have a system for winning often and small and losing infrequently and massively.

The very best you will achieve as a long term goal is

Probability of success approximates to, but is always less than

(starting lifetime bankroll)/(aspired for final bankroll)

Only genuine advantage play can do better. Your system does worse.

Prove it to yourself. You'll spend most of your time ahead, just like with regular Russian Roulette.

Footnote.

Failing to double or split where appropriate, just because you are bankrupt, is just a way of increasing the houses edge against you. They love you for it.

The long term outcome of this system is you lose. Next.

Quote: Aussie

The long term outcome of this system is you lose. Next.

Yeah... But for the entire short term he will be a winner :o)

"I know the old mantra of "betting systems are worthless" and "it's just a good way to lose"

Everyone knows, but some don't listen. No amount of tweaking will create and advantage. Such a wast of time considering there are legitimate advantages to be had. Some are simple and some are hard.

You got 2 choices, be a gaming sucker or a gambling sharp. It's better for value players that suckers do exist.
Does it really matter if you're system works?
Whats the difference between using a system or just playing -EV stuff? Nothing really, unless someone is counting on it for income, or losing more than they can afford.