Statistical significance of using the "probability of survival" to your favor

Wizard et. al,

I want to start by saying thank you for all of your great information! A friend and I have spent many hours reading your site and we are at least informed gamblers now, ha. I apologize if I have posted this in the wrong forum, but I am interested in the statistics behind our beneath scenario. After reading some of your articles, including your appendices that show probability of survival and the average number of rolls before 7 (8.35ish) we have done what so many others have and believe we have come up with the “winning” strategy. Of course, it has both worked and failed for us, and I know your thoughts on betting schemes, but we would love to know how the houses edge ends up using the following strategy.

Roll #
0) 1 unit pass line
1) Point set
2) Place 10x odds on pass line and 1 unit on come
3) Place 10x odds on come point, add 1 unit on come
4) Place 10x odds on 2nd come point, add 1 unit on don’t come
5) Remove all odds from pass and come points, place 10x odds on don’t come point, add 1 unit don’t come
6) Place 10x odds on 2nd don’t come point, add 1 unit on don’t come
7) Place 10x odds on 3rd don’t come point…. Ride it out to craps.

**If don’t come point is hit, replace 2 times with additional don’t come point, if more than 2 don’t come points are hit, wait for craps.

I know, it seems a bit convoluted but it makes sense in our pea brains. Please let me know what you think!

Thank you all in advance for your time and consideration.

Bump. Can anyone out there do the statistics!?

There aren't really any stats to be done.

You lose 1.41% on all of your pass line bets, and about the same on the don't pass bets.
All of your odds bets don't impact your EV but increase your variance dramatically which means your risk of busting out also increases.

I'm not sure I understand how you say no statistical analysis can be done because the player's odds bets increase variance dramatically; which in itself is illustrating statistical shift as the player bets after each roll. Your assumption of "about the same" loss on don't pass is measurable and the wizard has illuminated situations where don't pass line bet is advantage to the player over pass.


I agree wth guardian, would like to see some math applied to this scheme rather than generalities.

As a lawyer let me give you some advice! Always remember, Gambling with cards, dices or stocks are one thing. Its a way of getting money without giving an equivalent for it. All it matters is when you quit and when you bet! Think about it.For more information visit at

Here's a simple way to determine how much you expect to lose: Every time you place a pass line bet, don't pass line bet, come bet, or don't-come bet, multiply that amount by 0.0141 (or 1.41%). Every time you place odds (on the do or don't) multiply that by 0.000 (or 0%). Add up all these numbers. This is how much you expect to lose. If that number somehow ever becomes a negative number, you've got yourself a winning system.

Good luck.

Quote: HectorRamirez

As a lawyer let me give you some advice! Always remember, Gambling with cards, dices or stocks are one thing. Its a way of getting money without giving an equivalent for it. All it matters is when you quit and when you bet! Think about it.

HectorRamirez,

As a moderator, I have removed your link to a law firm. We do not allow unauthorized advertising, especially from new members. Please review the forum rules before posting again. Thank you.

Quote: guardian2015

After reading some of your articles, including your appendices that show probability of survival and the average number of rolls before 7 (8.35ish)

oh oh it is closer to 8.5 rolls

Quote: guardian2015

we have done what so many others have and believe we have come up with the “winning” strategy.

not "a" but "the"
of course, all wants to know if this is a lifetime winning strat

Quote: guardian2015

Of course, it has both worked and failed for us,

of course it did and does

Quote: guardian2015

and I know your thoughts

wow, that is cool

Quote: guardian2015

on betting schemes, but we would love to know how the houses edge ends up using the following strategy.

they win in the end
as always when enough bets are made, not just 47 of them

Quote: guardian2015

<snip>
I know, it seems a bit convoluted but it makes sense in our pea brains.

i due agree with you
thank you for sharing!
Sally

Oh
i almost forgot again
i had 30,000 friends (i know, not many)
try out your method, probably have less than that now...

Umm, no easy way to say this...


photo from WinCraps








they all went bankrupt!!,
had $0 left for a small drink
some started with a lot of money, ($1000 to $100,000)
i told them not too, (knot 2)
but they had fun and the free buffet at the end, (from all the comps) was worth the time and effort they all did say

thank you guys and gals!