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lsubrian
lsubrian
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May 30th, 2015 at 6:17:25 PM permalink
Looking for feedback (positive & negative) on a new betting system/sequence I've envisioned. It looks to hedge against a 7-out, but make your money off winnings placing the point numbers. Here is the betting system:

On the come out, you play the Don't Pass. When a point is established, you place the inside numbers and either the 4 or 10 to get four numbers working for you:
- So for a 4/10 point, you would place 5,6,8,9.
- For a 5/9 point, you would place 5 (or 9),6,8, and either 4 or 10. I realize placing 4/10 is a bad bet, but for the sake of simplicity, I'm sticking with it rather than having to identify tables that support buying these numbers, with commission on winnings only or commission always.
- For a 6/8 point, you would place 5,6 (or 8),9, and either 4 or 10.

At this time, you also put enough odds on your Don't Pass to cover your place bets. For example, on a $5 min table, with a point of 5/9, you would have $22 in place bets ($5 on 5 or 9, $6 on 6, $6 on 8, $5 on 4 or 10). So you would put down $33 odds to cover your $22 place bets.

For every place bet won, you win $7. After each place bet won, you take down your Don't Pass odds accordingly to cover your remaining original exposure (so you are looking to play with "house money"). For example, after the point is up and you made the bets above, the next roll is a place bet winner. You would then subtract that win from your original place bets ($22-$7 = $15). Now, you reduce your odds to cover only $15, from $33 to $24.

You repeat this until you are using only house money to play. Continuing the example, you've reduced odds to $24. Another place bet win and you get another $7. Now you cover ($15-7 = $8), and reduce odds bet to $12. Another place bet win and we take down all of the Don't Pass odds bet.

Following this, at any point above, if a 7 rolls, you come out ahead thanks to the $5 don't pass. If you hit 3 place bets, you come out even when the 7 hits after your odds are off. And if the place bets keep hitting, you keep winning. The only exposure for a loss in this bet system is if the shooter rolls his point before he either 7-out or rolls 3 place bet winners. And actually, you come out even thanks to the place bet winnings when he can roll at least 2 place bet winners before his point. Additionally, after the shooter gets you to even, you've actually switched from a Don't player to a Do player, since you've broke even and are now wanting the shooter to roll place bet numbers.

Obviously on a hot table, you may want to strictly play with the shooter, but this bet sequence is designed for more of the normal tables, that are either cold or neutral. I would rather lose if the shooter can roll his point immediately (or before 2 place bet wins or a 7-out), rather than on a 7. Any suggestions/feedback?

Thanks
ck1313
ck1313
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May 30th, 2015 at 6:26:49 PM permalink
My advice is to bend over and grab your ankles because the guys on this site are about to tear you a new one.
mustangsally
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May 30th, 2015 at 6:39:07 PM permalink
Quote: lsubrian

At this time, you also put enough odds on your Don't Pass to cover your place bets.
For example, on a $5 min table, with a point of 5/9, you would have $22 in place bets ($5 on 5 or 9, $6 on 6, $6 on 8, $5 on 4 or 10). So you would put down $33 odds to cover your $22 place bets.

For every place bet won, you win $7.

wait one second...
ok

what happens when the point number rolls right back
or a few Horn numbers roll and then the point number hits and you have not won even one place bet?

this is very important
to consider every possible way the rolls can play out
not just the winning ones
win
win
win

how much you willing to lose on this old-timer system?
in other words, what would be your starting bankroll

i see old-timers playing this way lots, even a ton of tables

are you under 30 years of age?
if no
lots of luck to you

and have funs
Sally
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surrender88s
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May 30th, 2015 at 6:39:43 PM permalink
I think this makes sense, but you are just very exposed during the come out rolls. That's where you lose here. 7s and 11s on the come out.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
champ724
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May 30th, 2015 at 7:23:17 PM permalink
I play this system sometimes and the shooter buckin the point back is the killer. i suppose your going to go 22 inside or 3 and pick a 4 or 10. what I found works best through lots of losses and doing this system is actually pressing the place numbers 1 unit everytime if a 4 or ten hit & your on em drop a $1 and press the 10 and 5 or 9 or pound one number when any other number hits like if your inside and 5 6 8 or 9 hit press the 5 or 9 and keep pressing that number only. if you start with 44 (which i recommend) or 42 inside n the 4 or 10 go up 1 unit or press 1 number 4 or 10 hit i go up a unit on that number and a unit on the 5 or 9 and take the remaining 8. if the point is rolled take down your place bets and start over. I hit a pretty good roll with this system and won over 700 on 1 shooter. i power pressed the 5 and 9 and didn't take a $1 til i collected 90 for 2 (we have free back number buys on the outside number here) so i started at 10 went to 24 dropped dollar went to 60 third hit was 90 for $3 i went up 2 units each time after that. the guy hit the point and i lost 75 but at that point i was up and left the place numbers out there i didnt take em down and start over on the don't i just left the dont alone n hoped for numbers. but anywayyy the house has the advantage on any system and if you play anything but strictly don't if the shooter doesn't throw a decent hand no one is going to win no matter what system you use. if they throw a hand any system will work. iron cross, this system, 3 come bets, cross press, whatever u can think of. Good luck to you let me know how it works out for you!
texasplumr
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May 30th, 2015 at 8:31:05 PM permalink
Did you even bother to read the other system threads? Did you not see any somewhat similar to yours? Did you not see the responses to those threads?

Here's a tip for you: Copy and paste those responses and read them aloud. You'll save everybody a lot of time and effort.
Stupid is a choice
djatc
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May 30th, 2015 at 8:37:38 PM permalink
It'll work until it doesn't. Two words, house edge.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
lsubrian
lsubrian
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May 30th, 2015 at 8:42:50 PM permalink
Thanks for the feedback Sally, but try to elaborate on the math beyond what the player's age is. Assume the point is 4/10. I don't have software to simulate, but what I'm thinking is the odds of rolling 5,6,7,8,9 vs. 4 or 10. So if the point is 4/10, you have 24/36 vs 3/36 odds, or 8:1 odds against the shooter. Considering you need to hit 2 place bets /seven out to get even, the odds of getting there are 5.33:1 (or simply, 24/36 *24/36, vs 3/36 odds). Now I wish I had the software to calculate those 5.33:1 odds to see what my expected trend is.
lsubrian
lsubrian
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May 30th, 2015 at 8:45:48 PM permalink
lol djatc, just watched that episode the other day.
lsubrian
lsubrian
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May 30th, 2015 at 8:54:07 PM permalink
thanks champ, best answer yet as to actually playing the bet system. My purpose would def be to press the place bets, and I've been part of 45-60 min dice rolls, and want to just kill on the place bets, but only after getting to the point where you're playing with "house money". Too often, the shooter will 7-out way before getting on a decent run, and I'm just wondering if it's better to bet against him bucking the point vs 7-out. It sounds like you're saying to press as soon as you hit place bets, but then you would be leaving yourself exposed more against the point bucking back on you if you want to cover all those pressed place bets. Maybe I'm reading wrong?
champ724
champ724
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May 30th, 2015 at 9:17:10 PM permalink
well it is gambling still and your playing for the place bets not them to hit the point or seven out the seven out saves your place bets. if you wanna try the system start with $25 on the don' and 4 place bets for 21/22 so you gotta fade the 7 and eleven on comeouts. but you don't have to lay 40 to win 20 on the 4 and ten if you wanna just lay enough to cover the place bets then do it when the shooter comes out and make money on the 7's on the comeout don't even mess with the don't pass line. lay the 4 for 40 you hit a 7 you got your place bets paid for.
idk why guys play 15 on the don't pass then go full odds the advantage you get by fading the 7 / 11 on the comeout you give back to the house.
another variation i play is $40 don't 34 5 6 8 and place the field for $6 press a unit if the 5 6 or 8 hits if the field hits press the 5 andput the dealers on the 5 6 or 8. field hits again press the 5 or press the 6 or 8 i usually press the 5 to 20 then press either the 6 or 8 everytime the field hits. once you get to 30 on the 6 or 8 and it hits place the nine for 10 and take the $19 profit. if the 5 6 or 8 hits before they get to 20 or 30 same bet replace the field and put the rest in the rail so if the 8 hits and your bettin 24 put 22 in the rail and 6 in the field. just a way to build up place numbers with house money. especially if the fields hittin.
by no way am i recommending the iron cross 568 for 17 and field for 5 and taking either $2 or 5 a roll.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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May 30th, 2015 at 10:24:03 PM permalink
Let me give you a friendly warning that this is not a good site to discuss betting systems. It isn't prohibited but most members here know they are all equally bad so you're going against a hostile crowd. Let me recommend this forum instead. Tell Alan I said "The answer is 1/11."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mustangsally
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May 31st, 2015 at 1:54:51 AM permalink
Quote: lsubrian

Thanks for the feedback Sally, but try to elaborate on the math beyond what the player's age is.

the age of the player is very important to craps success in my opinion just as the color and type of shoes worn during a session of play.

the math is not difficult as you showed but i was more into how much you are willing to lose playing this system?

the fast point winners and the lack of place bet winners before a point winner will easily lower a bankroll so i was after a starting point for this, but if you do not have one or an idea for one i can can get one for myself and compare it to the do/dont place regress system of play that i see other old-timers play too.

Quote: lsubrian

Assume the point is 4/10.
I don't have software to simulate,

i do and can
but it is not really needed as you can easily see what happens with each roll of the dice and place the probabilities and returns for each too.
Quote: lsubrian

but what I'm thinking is...

i think your idea is nothing new and has been used for about 100 years or so by others that have thought up that exact system of play.

I will consider a starting bankroll of 10X the spread of $5 + $22 + $44
and 50% of that

i am willing to bet it doubles the start bankroll less often than a do/dont/odds/regress system

what you think?
me too
Sally
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mustangsally
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May 31st, 2015 at 1:59:51 AM permalink
Quote: champ724

if your inside...
if you start with 44 ...
if the point is rolled...

lots if small ifs there

feeling if dizzy
Quote: champ724

i just left the dont alone n hoped for numbers.

and hope

is not that the exact same as gambling?
i think so

sounds fun and thank you for sharing
Mully
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mustangsally
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May 31st, 2015 at 2:11:52 AM permalink
Quote: lsubrian

if a 7 rolls, you come out ahead thanks to the $5 don't pass.

the dpass is a major sucker bet in my opinion
it can lose on a 7 too.

that must be why i see more do/dont systems and then the place bets

Quote: lsubrian

If you hit 3 place bets, you come out even when the 7 hits after your odds are off.

another IF
what is that probability to hit 3 place bet winners
Quote: lsubrian

And if the place bets keep hitting, you keep winning.

another IF
and what are the chances that the place bets keep hitting?
likes 4 or more before the 7 loser roll

sounds a lot like gambling to me
and could still be fun

and lots of comps, MAYbe more comps than you could lose in a session
something to think about too (2 or 1+1 will work)
Quote: lsubrian

The only exposure for a loss in this bet system is if the shooter rolls his point before he either 7-out or rolls 3 place bet winners.

yes, we know that and the fact still remains as to how much are you willing to lose at this system?
you must have an idea?

also, do not forget that for every 30 wins for the dpass on the come out roll you will average 80 losses
that difference is a loss and how do you want to account for that?
MAYbe
more place bets wins sounds good

that points to the timing of those place bets bet selection and timing
oh oh
getting too complicated now, it feels likes


I doubt you would play this at a real casino with real money for $100 buy-in, but could
one might be laughed out-of-town
but causing others to laugh has to be priceless
i would think

remember
Sally
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mustangsally
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May 31st, 2015 at 9:44:33 AM permalink
Quote: lsubrian

And if the place bets keep hitting, you keep winning.

ok
so, i took $16,000 and went out to play this method OP proposed

and just for safety i took my husband too
and gave him $16,000 to play also but the difference is after 3 wins (lay odds go to 0)
he pressed 1 unit each time after a place win (sure other methods could have been used)

and i just collect my winnings each time so his total wagered should be way more then me

I used the 35,097 actual dice roll collection (no computer rolls for this test)

and I lost $7,312 (my expected loss was $5,612 so the session was worse than average or expected) or abouts 20.83cents per roll
$339,323 was my total handle
we both had 43,785 wagers actually resolved

my husband, and he was tired from our Vegas trip (WSOP Event #3)
lost $8,015 (pressing with the houses money after each win)
$354,417 was his total handle

looks like when a trigger of playing with the houses money is used
you lose more of your money

what a great deal!

oh our comps!
mine were $559.63
his was $595.51

did not even come close to covering our actual losses
the ton of table rolls were too heavy

next time a different system

the do/dont/regress and press
just to compare
and MAYbe a full press and pull for the OP system idea too
Sally
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champ724
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May 31st, 2015 at 4:41:01 PM permalink
my ifs sally is if you bet a certain amount thats what to do. game of craps is all about ifs and what ifs well gambling is all about what ifs and ifs. so when asked about the system the guy wanted to try out i was giving my info i accumulated over the years on the way i played that was successful over the other systems i used that weren't so good to save him the trouble of trying the not so good systems.
Tanko
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June 1st, 2015 at 9:25:49 AM permalink
Quote: lsubrian

Looking for feedback (positive & negative) on a new betting system/sequence I've envisioned. It looks to hedge against a 7-out, but make your money off winnings placing the point numbers.



I ran it exactly as you described using WinCraps Pro using three different 12,000 roll files.

It never did well at all. At it's highest point, it was up $274.

It ended up losing $2,600 for each 12,000 rolls.

Betting $5 DontPass with 3X odds has a slightly lower EV.

That did better using the same roll files.

+1,682 vs. -575 on one of the files.

It is also a lot less work for you and the dealers.
lsubrian
lsubrian
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June 3rd, 2015 at 8:01:32 PM permalink
Thanks for all of the feedback everyone. I've practiced it and agree with the math/comments: losses are substantial. Guess this is more evidence that more bets = higher expected loss.
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