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On the come out, you play the Don't Pass. When a point is established, you place the inside numbers and either the 4 or 10 to get four numbers working for you:

- So for a 4/10 point, you would place 5,6,8,9.

- For a 5/9 point, you would place 5 (or 9),6,8, and either 4 or 10. I realize placing 4/10 is a bad bet, but for the sake of simplicity, I'm sticking with it rather than having to identify tables that support buying these numbers, with commission on winnings only or commission always.

- For a 6/8 point, you would place 5,6 (or 8),9, and either 4 or 10.

At this time, you also put enough odds on your Don't Pass to cover your place bets. For example, on a $5 min table, with a point of 5/9, you would have $22 in place bets ($5 on 5 or 9, $6 on 6, $6 on 8, $5 on 4 or 10). So you would put down $33 odds to cover your $22 place bets.

For every place bet won, you win $7. After each place bet won, you take down your Don't Pass odds accordingly to cover your remaining original exposure (so you are looking to play with "house money"). For example, after the point is up and you made the bets above, the next roll is a place bet winner. You would then subtract that win from your original place bets ($22-$7 = $15). Now, you reduce your odds to cover only $15, from $33 to $24.

You repeat this until you are using only house money to play. Continuing the example, you've reduced odds to $24. Another place bet win and you get another $7. Now you cover ($15-7 = $8), and reduce odds bet to $12. Another place bet win and we take down all of the Don't Pass odds bet.

Following this, at any point above, if a 7 rolls, you come out ahead thanks to the $5 don't pass. If you hit 3 place bets, you come out even when the 7 hits after your odds are off. And if the place bets keep hitting, you keep winning. The only exposure for a loss in this bet system is if the shooter rolls his point before he either 7-out or rolls 3 place bet winners. And actually, you come out even thanks to the place bet winnings when he can roll at least 2 place bet winners before his point. Additionally, after the shooter gets you to even, you've actually switched from a Don't player to a Do player, since you've broke even and are now wanting the shooter to roll place bet numbers.

Obviously on a hot table, you may want to strictly play with the shooter, but this bet sequence is designed for more of the normal tables, that are either cold or neutral. I would rather lose if the shooter can roll his point immediately (or before 2 place bet wins or a 7-out), rather than on a 7. Any suggestions/feedback?

Thanks

wait one second...Quote:lsubrianAt this time, you also put enough odds on your Don't Pass to cover your place bets.

For example, on a $5 min table, with a point of 5/9, you would have $22 in place bets ($5 on 5 or 9, $6 on 6, $6 on 8, $5 on 4 or 10). So you would put down $33 odds to cover your $22 place bets.

For every place bet won, you win $7.

ok

what happens when the point number rolls right back

or a few Horn numbers roll and then the point number hits and you have not won even one place bet?

this is very important

to consider every possible way the rolls can play out

not just the winning ones

win

win

win

how much you willing to lose on this old-timer system?

in other words, what would be your starting bankroll

i see old-timers playing this way lots, even a ton of tables

are you under 30 years of age?

if no

lots of luck to you

and have funs

Sally

Here's a tip for you: Copy and paste those responses and read them aloud. You'll save everybody a lot of time and effort.

idk why guys play 15 on the don't pass then go full odds the advantage you get by fading the 7 / 11 on the comeout you give back to the house.

another variation i play is $40 don't 34 5 6 8 and place the field for $6 press a unit if the 5 6 or 8 hits if the field hits press the 5 andput the dealers on the 5 6 or 8. field hits again press the 5 or press the 6 or 8 i usually press the 5 to 20 then press either the 6 or 8 everytime the field hits. once you get to 30 on the 6 or 8 and it hits place the nine for 10 and take the $19 profit. if the 5 6 or 8 hits before they get to 20 or 30 same bet replace the field and put the rest in the rail so if the 8 hits and your bettin 24 put 22 in the rail and 6 in the field. just a way to build up place numbers with house money. especially if the fields hittin.

by no way am i recommending the iron cross 568 for 17 and field for 5 and taking either $2 or 5 a roll.

the age of the player is very important to craps success in my opinion just as the color and type of shoes worn during a session of play.Quote:lsubrianThanks for the feedback Sally, but try to elaborate on the math beyond what the player's age is.

the math is not difficult as you showed but i was more into how much you are willing to lose playing this system?

the fast point winners and the lack of place bet winners before a point winner will easily lower a bankroll so i was after a starting point for this, but if you do not have one or an idea for one i can can get one for myself and compare it to the do/dont place regress system of play that i see other old-timers play too.

i do and canQuote:lsubrianAssume the point is 4/10.

I don't have software to simulate,

but it is not really needed as you can easily see what happens with each roll of the dice and place the probabilities and returns for each too.

i think your idea is nothing new and has been used for about 100 years or so by others that have thought up that exact system of play.Quote:lsubrianbut what I'm thinking is...

I will consider a starting bankroll of 10X the spread of $5 + $22 + $44

and 50% of that

i am willing to bet it doubles the start bankroll less often than a do/dont/odds/regress system

what you think?

me too

Sally

lots if small ifs thereQuote:champ724if your inside...

if you start with 44 ...

if the point is rolled...

feeling if dizzy

and hopeQuote:champ724i just left the dont alone n hoped for numbers.

is not that the exact same as gambling?

i think so

sounds fun and thank you for sharing

Mully

the dpass is a major sucker bet in my opinionQuote:lsubrianif a 7 rolls, you come out ahead thanks to the $5 don't pass.

it can lose on a 7 too.

that must be why i see more do/dont systems and then the place bets

another IFQuote:lsubrianIf you hit 3 place bets, you come out even when the 7 hits after your odds are off.

what is that probability to hit 3 place bet winners

another IFQuote:lsubrianAnd if the place bets keep hitting, you keep winning.

and what are the chances that the place bets keep hitting?

likes 4 or more before the 7 loser roll

sounds a lot like gambling to me

and could still be fun

and lots of comps, MAYbe more comps than you could lose in a session

something to think about too (2 or 1+1 will work)

yes, we know that and the fact still remains as to how much are you willing to lose at this system?Quote:lsubrianThe only exposure for a loss in this bet system is if the shooter rolls his point before he either 7-out or rolls 3 place bet winners.

you must have an idea?

also, do not forget that for every 30 wins for the dpass on the come out roll you will average 80 losses

that difference is a loss and how do you want to account for that?

MAYbe

more place bets wins sounds good

that points to the timing of those place bets bet selection and timing

oh oh

getting too complicated now, it feels likes

I doubt you would play this at a real casino with real money for $100 buy-in, but could

one might be laughed out-of-town

but causing others to laugh has to be priceless

i would think

remember

Sally

okQuote:lsubrianAnd if the place bets keep hitting, you keep winning.

so, i took $16,000 and went out to play this method OP proposed

and just for safety i took my husband too

and gave him $16,000 to play also but the difference is after 3 wins (lay odds go to 0)

he pressed 1 unit each time after a place win (sure other methods could have been used)

and i just collect my winnings each time so his total wagered should be way more then me

I used the 35,097 actual dice roll collection (no computer rolls for this test)

and I lost $7,312 (my expected loss was $5,612 so the session was worse than average or expected) or abouts 20.83cents per roll

$339,323 was my total handle

we both had 43,785 wagers actually resolved

my husband, and he was tired from our Vegas trip (WSOP Event #3)

lost $8,015 (pressing with the houses money after each win)

$354,417 was his total handle

looks like when a trigger of playing with the houses money is used

you lose more of your money

what a great deal!

oh our comps!

mine were $559.63

his was $595.51

did not even come close to covering our actual losses

the ton of table rolls were too heavy

next time a different system

the do/dont/regress and press

just to compare

and MAYbe a full press and pull for the OP system idea too

Sally

Quote:lsubrianLooking for feedback (positive & negative) on a new betting system/sequence I've envisioned. It looks to hedge against a 7-out, but make your money off winnings placing the point numbers.

I ran it exactly as you described using WinCraps Pro using three different 12,000 roll files.

It never did well at all. At it's highest point, it was up $274.

It ended up losing $2,600 for each 12,000 rolls.

Betting $5 DontPass with 3X odds has a slightly lower EV.

That did better using the same roll files.

+1,682 vs. -575 on one of the files.

It is also a lot less work for you and the dealers.