Betting System For Bitcoin Dice games?
Nearly all Bitcoin Dice sites work by generating random numbers usually from 0.000 up to 99.999, and then you bet Hi or Lo based on a percentage probability - e.g. Higher than 50.00 or (50%) etc.
House edge is usually 1%, so the payout is easily calculated. e.g. Payout at Hi or Lo 49.5% = 2x
So nothing groundbreaking so far, but since it's bitcoins, it opens up possibility of lots of fractional betting. At moment 1BTC ~ $225, but most dice sites allow for minimal bets of about 0.00000010. Without getting into a Martingale debate, this opens up some interesting possibilities that allow for a smaller bank roll, and relying on huge unlikely losses in a row without busting a huge bank. Also, speed that you can place bets on these sites is very high, some of them around a few hundred per minute.
Changing the percentage outcome also helps in devising strategies. I created a script in R that calculates the highest probability for a given bet and bank roll, and I was surprised to see that if using a 2x martingale strategy sometimes gives better odds when lowering the percentage instead of increasing it.
My questions are though:
- If betting at odds > 50% (let say 80 to 95%), I'm expected to have a number of win streaks in a row. Would using something like a partial martingale work more favorably than a simple 2x multiplier approach? i.e. recoup a loss over 3 or 4 bets instead of just 1? I have no idea how I can work out the odds of this, and obviously how to factor in getting a loss within one of those recovery bets etc.
- Are there any other betting strategies for games or outcomes that have high probabilities of winning? e.g. Most stuff I read here are for Baccarat or Roulette etc. In this game I can change the odds of winning to higher or lower and alter the payout (albeit with the fixed 1% edge)
- Anyone know of R, and can help me with optimize functions and tutorials?
You can make all kinds of systems to try to increase the probability of coming away a winner, but every bet you place has a house advantage, and that will eventually catch up with you.
Quote: daCoopsSo nothing groundbreaking so far, but since it's bitcoins, it opens up possibility of lots of fractional betting. At moment 1BTC ~ $225, but most dice sites allow for minimal bets of about 0.00000010. Without getting into a Martingale debate, this opens up some interesting possibilities that allow for a smaller bank roll, and relying on huge unlikely losses in a row without busting a huge bank.
Sorry, but it doesn't matter how small the bet amount can be; any discussion of "relying on huge unlikely losses in a row" "opens up a Martingale debate" pretty much by definition.
Even if the minimum bet is 1/45 of 1 cent, it only takes a run of 12 losses to increase the bet to $91.
Any strategy where the intent is to "recoup losses" is asking for problems.
All I was trying to find out were strategies that may increase the probability of surviving giving a certain bankroll and percentage win stake on these games.
So.. just so I know, what "strategies" are out there that don't have an intent to recoup losses? I'm guessing there aren't any?
Quote: rudeboyoiAll you got to realize is that you are likelier to go broke before you double up. It's just how long do you want to take to get there.
Yeah - but surely there is a way of calculating or simulating the tipping point so to speak? Finding the best bank size, best bet size, best stake percentage, best strategy on loss, to give the most optimized profit vs probability outcome?
Quote: daCoopsPoint taken - I was just thinking about the possibility of approaching a reasonable profit and cashing out before you approach the huge losses in a row...
All I was trying to find out were strategies that may increase the probability of surviving giving a certain bankroll and percentage win stake on these games.
If you want to "increase the probability of surviving", then make the ratio of "target win amount" to bankroll as small as possible.
As for probabilities, what you are describing sounds like a Gambler's Ruin problem, except that in GR, you never change the amount of your bet.
If each bet has probability p of winning, and we let q = 1-p (i.e. the probability of losing), then the probability of getting to W more wins than losses before getting to L more losses than wins = (1 - (q-p)L) / (1 - (q-p)W+L)
(If p = q = 1/2, the probability is L / (W + L))
Quote: daCoopsSo.. just so I know, what "strategies" are out there that don't have an intent to recoup losses? I'm guessing there aren't any?
Here's one: bet the same amount each time.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIf you want to "increase the probability of surviving", then make the ratio of "target win amount" to bankroll as small as possible.
As for probabilities, what you are describing sounds like a Gambler's Ruin problem, except that in GR, you never change the amount of your bet.
If each bet has probability p of winning, and we let q = 1-p (i.e. the probability of losing), then the probability of getting to W more wins than losses before getting to L more losses than wins = (1 - (q-p)L) / (1 - (q-p)W+L)
(If p = q = 1/2, the probability is L / (W + L))
Here's one: bet the same amount each time.
Thanks Don - Just started reading the wiki on Gamblers Ruin.... and see what you mean with ratio of target to bankroll...
How do you know when this will happen? You might lose 30 in a row the very first time you play it.Quote: daCoopsPoint taken - I was just thinking about the possibility of approaching a reasonable profit and cashing out before you approach the huge losses in a row...
?
This has been discussed here, and just about any and everyone who plays sites like this know about Marty, if it was a winning system the place would be broke.
Go look at the stats, it might show you the longest streak it has ever had.
I have looked at sites like this (probably the same one) I seen some incredible amounts of money being wagered. I'm always wondering if that's total BS and just fake shills trying to encourage suckers.
Perhaps its all the millionaire BC minors who mined them from day one.
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Double gamble factor. Something to think about since your system is -EV already.
Lets say you bought your bit coins a few days ago @ $231 and you played your system. Today if you decided to cash out you automatically lose $6. On the flip side you could cash and sell above 232 and profit.
And there is stuff like this(I just took the scary parts)...... Patrick Howell O'Neil "The entire affair has left numerous investors and observers feeling dizzy and, often, suspicious. By Friday, several investors tried to cut their losses by divesting their money and walking away. However, Just-Dice came under DDoS attack for several minutes, according to numerous witnesses, making it impossible for them to withdraw their money"
"Is he a Just-Dice employee essentially stealing money from investors?"
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I believe Just dice shut down and reopened (not sure exactly what happened )
Dice.Ninja Scam. (see Bitcointalk thread)
Dicebitco.in Shut down. Scam. (see Bitcointalk thread)
Just-Dice Roll the Dice or Be the House | Highest Max Bets - win over 500 BTC per roll | Provably Fair | 1% House Edge | Very Fast Betting | Set your own odds | Active on-site chat
CoinBet Bitcoin Casino, Sportsbook, Poker, and more with the most responsive customer service, as well as multiple payment, deposit, and withdraw methods. Instant Deposit. Instant Play. -- No longer available as of 4/6/2014.
Bets of Bitcoin -- No longer available.
betbybitcoin You can open your bets anonymously, Get big fees. -- No longer available.
Betcoiner -- Owner gone, events aren't settling. (see Bitcointalk thread)
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There may be some BC casino bonuses you can take advantage of. I suggest looking for them so you at least have an advantage from the beginning.
Quote: AxelWolfAnd there is stuff like this(I just took the scary parts)...... Patrick Howell O'Neil "The entire affair has left numerous investors and observers feeling dizzy and, often, suspicious. By Friday, several investors tried to cut their losses by divesting their money and walking away. However, Just-Dice came under DDoS attack for several minutes, according to numerous witnesses, making it impossible for them to withdraw their money"
"Is he a Just-Dice employee essentially stealing money from investors?"
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I believe Just dice shut down and reopened (not sure exactly what happened )
I talked a lot with the owner of Just Dice and we worked on a paper together.
He had one player who won 30 times in a row. The expected number of trials to win 30 times in a row is 1.2 billion. The probability of winning the Powerball is only 175 million to one (or lower by 1/7). Presumably the player had programmed a bot to use Martingale, and the minimum bet was placed every time and the winnings were less than a nickel.
When he had the idea to create Just-Dice he explained to everyone that he struggled to find a way to design the game so that he could assure people that he wasn't cheating and simply stealing the profits. He finally threw in the towel, and started the game and told people flat out that there was no way of knowing if he was cheating or not. He simply said that if they wanted to play they had to trust him. No assurances other than his word were offered.
Surprisingly hundreds of people invested anyway. They players even encouraged him to increase his management fee .
Of course, a few weeks after the website opened, a whale came and wiped out all the earnings. Since it was only his word, some people assumed he was masquerading as a whale and stealing. But the game survived until the whale got bored and ran until the Canadian government changed the law regarding bitcoins. The owner closed the game rather than try and comply with the reporting requirements now required by the government.
Quote: daCoopsSo nothing groundbreaking so far, but since it's bitcoins, it opens up possibility of lots of fractional betting. At moment 1BTC ~ $225, but most dice sites allow for minimal bets of about 0.00000010. Without getting into a Martingale debate, this opens up some interesting possibilities that allow for a smaller bank roll, and relying on huge unlikely losses in a row without busting a huge bank. Also, speed that you can place bets on these sites is very high, some of them around a few hundred per minute.
The belief that smaller bets makes betting schemes more viable is a persistent fantasy of people.
For instance let's say you have $8 to bet with and the minimum bet is a dollar (assume zero house edge for simplification). The expected number of plays before you get three losses in a row is 14. What is the probability that you will double your bankroll before going bankrupt?
Now your friend has the same $8 but he plays on a table where the minimum bet is 50 cents (also no house edge). The expected number of plays before he gets six losses in a row is 126. What is the probability that he will double his bankroll before going bankrupt?
Who is better off or are you both facing the same odds? Try adding a small house edge (use 1% from the web site)? Now who is better off? What is certainly true is the probability of your friend playing for longer is much higher.
Quote: pacomartinThe belief that smaller bets makes betting schemes more viable is a persistent fantasy of people.
For instance let's say you have $8 to bet with and the minimum bet is a dollar (assume zero house edge for simplification). The expected number of plays before you get three losses in a row is 14. What is the probability that you will double your bankroll before going bankrupt?
Now your friend has the same $8 but he plays on a table where the minimum bet is 50 cents (also no house edge). The expected number of plays before he gets six losses in a row is 126. What is the probability that he will double his bankroll before going bankrupt?
Who is better off or are you both facing the same odds? Try adding a small house edge (use 1% from the web site)? Now who is better off? What is certainly true is the probability of your friend playing for longer is much higher.
Unless I'm missing something completely fundamental, this is my point exactly. Using your example, assuming that you win even money, $8 bankroll betting $1, would win an expected $14 before getting the 3 losses in a row. Person with $8 and betting 50c would win $63 before 6 losses. Odds of the game are the same, but the output is different. If this was me, then with $8 start, winning 100% + start bank roll is a good time to quit and re-evaluate if you want to continue or just call quits.
That's what I'm trying to do here with the bitcoin dice games. Must be a way to model accurately using all the various variables and find the best probability?
Also - don't really want to get into the history of Just-Dice or any other site. That's not my intention and just want to concentrate on the mechanics of the games itself. Just-Dice is back up and running anyhow. Has been for a long time. So are so many that are legit sites.
Quote: ThatDonGuyEven if the minimum bet is 1/45 of 1 cent, it only takes a run of 12 losses to increase the bet to $91.
And of course, each win would only be 1/45 of a cent. To win a whole $1 would require a lot of bets, and within that lot of bets would be a decent number of ruinous runs.
Quote: daCoopsYeah - but surely there is a way of calculating or simulating the tipping point so to speak? Finding the best bank size, best bet size, best stake percentage, best strategy on loss, to give the most optimized profit vs probability outcome?
There is: The only place where Martingale is useful is where risking your whole bankroll to win a tiny amount would be where that tiny amount is very significant. E.g. where you have $1000 and you are in a war zone about to die, but where you can get a flight to freedom for $1001. Then Martingale is sensible strategy. Losing some, or all of your $1000 would have no meaning.
Martingale doesn't change the fact that you are as likely to go broke as you are to double your money (Ignoring House Edge.)
Quote: daCoopsUnless I'm missing something completely fundamental, this is my point exactly. Using your example, assuming that you win even money, $8 bankroll betting $1, would win an expected $14 before getting the 3 losses in a row.
I meant to type $7 as if you lose the first three in a row $1, $2, and $4 you would then be bankrupt. The number of plays you need before you expect to lose three in a row is 14. But that doesn't mean you are ahead $14. It just means you might win one, lose, two, win two, lose one, win one, lose one ,win three, lose three.
The owner of Just Dice was discussing at an unfortunate string of 27 losses in a row from a player. A lively debate ensued on the forum questioning if this streak was unique since no one had reported seeing anything similar on the forums. The owner dooglus accepted a wager that this was not the most extreme run in the database of 1.2 billion bets (made at all odds). The most popular bet is the “double your stake” bet and dooglus believed that about half the bets were made at this percentage.
He took the base to give him some incentive to do the paperwork, expecting people to take a few hundred dollars worth of action. He was surprised when one player bought the entire action at $30,000 .He grew more nervous when he calculated that only 375M trials were double your money.
In looking through his statistics he discovered the player who won 30 times in a row. It is probable that the player was using a 'bot and was completely unaware that he had a record winning streak. But the entire win netted him less than a nickel. There was also four winning streaks of length 27.
For now.Quote: Mrhollis1I found a system that has been working for me for a couple weeks so far. Started out with 150millibits and now have 1.5 BTC and counting. It's very tidious and time consuming but effective.
Let us know in a few months. Actually why would you? loose lips sink ships. Why is it when people find the holy grail of betting systems they run to the nearest gaming forum? My guess is they don't actually trust their system and they want people to convince them to stop before it's to late. When smart people find something good , something that they 100% know works, they try to keep as quiet as possible. They are the ones who get rich. Did Phil Ivey run the forums and talk about edge sorting?
You should keep your mouth shut sit back make oodles of cash.
With all the bitcoin casinos popping up you're set for the rest of you're life. I would ramp up my bets. Rape them one at a time. Actually its best to move around if you can. Don't take to much from one casino. Do a rotation so the casino has time to recoup it's losses. Toss in some cover play and a few losing sessions.
Most important thing is to stop posting about it. I bet you're posting with the same IP address and computer you're playing at the casino with, probably using the same Email.
If it ends tomorrow you'll be kicking yourself wondering if you messed it up for yourself.
Quote: Mrhollis1I Found a system
Quit now MrHollis. Axel was joking with you.Quote:I was looking in the forums to find out if anyone has been banned from Bitcoin dice sites. I'm nervous they'll boot me. But so far so good. Up to 1.8 BTC and counting.
In that case I better snap up my bitcoins now before you have them all.Quote: Mrhollis1I was looking in the forums to find out if anyone has been banned from Bitcoin dice sites. I'm nervous they'll boot me. But so far so good. Up to 1.8 BTC and counting.
Perhaps you'll be the next Hufflepuf
Quote: Mrhollis12.25 BTC
may I ask against what HE you are betting? and at which site?
Without knowing ...I would assume it's 1%.Quote: sevenmay I ask against what HE you are betting? and at which site?
Stay away.
3 BTC = Lless than $1200.
I'm willing to make a side bet he's going to lose
Quote: AxelWolfWithout knowing ...I would assume it's 1%.
Stay away.
3 BTC = Lless than $1200.
I'm willing to make a side bet he's going to lose/q]♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Quote: AxelWolfWithout knowing ...I would assume it's 1%.
Stay away.
3 BTC = Lless than $1200.
I'm willing to make a side bet he's going to lose
if you are right and it is HE 1% I could tell him a dice site where the HE is 0.12% or another one
HE is 0.1 :)
