Gamblers fallacy... Sports/horse betting
January 16th, 2015 at 5:28:31 PM
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Okay
Table games red red red red "oh its got to hit black."
But... Big b u t, and i'm not sure what the pay offs were, but for exaple 1/2 a decade ago when new england won all their games except lost the super bowl, or miami lost 10 and finally beat a top tier team...
When does betting(in sports) with the gamblers fallacy become a good(decent)strategy ??
Casinos = house edge + randomness...
But sports??
Table games red red red red "oh its got to hit black."
But... Big b u t, and i'm not sure what the pay offs were, but for exaple 1/2 a decade ago when new england won all their games except lost the super bowl, or miami lost 10 and finally beat a top tier team...
When does betting(in sports) with the gamblers fallacy become a good(decent)strategy ??
Casinos = house edge + randomness...
But sports??
January 16th, 2015 at 5:59:05 PM
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It's the same you still pay Vig, so unless you're a great handicapper NVM. Disregarding the spread, NFL teams have lost over 20 in a row.Quote: Madmax508Okay
Table games red red red red "oh its got to hit black."
But... Big b u t, and i'm not sure what the pay offs were, but for exaple 1/2 a decade ago when new england won all their games except lost the super bowl, or miami lost 10 and finally beat a top tier team...
When does betting(in sports) with the gamblers fallacy become a good(decent)strategy ??
Casinos = house edge + randomness...
But sports??
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 16th, 2015 at 7:15:36 PM
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When is it a good strategy?
Probably never. UCLA won 25 basketball games in a row against Cal. Cal has to win sometime, right?
Cal finally did - after 27 more losses.
Then there's the obvious one: "But this just has to be the year the Cubs win the World Series!"
Probably never. UCLA won 25 basketball games in a row against Cal. Cal has to win sometime, right?
Cal finally did - after 27 more losses.
Then there's the obvious one: "But this just has to be the year the Cubs win the World Series!"
January 17th, 2015 at 10:35:55 AM
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Nothing is guaranteed. Even if you bet the favorite.
I am still waiting for Big Brown (3 to 10 favorite) to cross the Belmont finish line!
I am still waiting for Big Brown (3 to 10 favorite) to cross the Belmont finish line!
January 17th, 2015 at 1:28:36 PM
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Actually most sport betting systems that I have seen with proven records are the flip side of the gamblers fallacy. In Jimmy the Greeks autobiography the only system he gives is to bet with a baseball team thats won 3 games in a row...and against one thats lost 3 games in a row... I've seen this system tested successfully (well claimed to be) in other books on sports betting..though I think Ive heard it as winning 4 times in a row sometimes.
One of the best college football systems, (again read about not tested enough to get any static validity personally) is to bet on the one team team that scored the highest the previous weekend.
In sports streaking teams (high scoring teams) tend to have their act together...
Also since a certain number of people believe in the gamblers fallacy...and sports lines are at least in part made to balance the book makers books...going against silly things the public believes often leads to nice overlays.
One of the best college football systems, (again read about not tested enough to get any static validity personally) is to bet on the one team team that scored the highest the previous weekend.
In sports streaking teams (high scoring teams) tend to have their act together...
Also since a certain number of people believe in the gamblers fallacy...and sports lines are at least in part made to balance the book makers books...going against silly things the public believes often leads to nice overlays.
