blackjack slot machine lis it legiitmate
i am playing a blackjack slot machine in an Indian casino in California. i would like to know if my results are too far out to be legitimate.
four decks
80 card penetration then shuffle
dealer hits soft 17
BJ pays 3/2
late surrender
split pairs once, double down after splitting except aces
double down any two cards
late surrender
This game is a -0.534 loser. I do play according to the wizards strategy.
I bet 20 dollars per hand, playing 2 hands at a time ($40). since April I have put through $350,000 in action with a loss of $9,513.00. This results in losing around 2.67%. My friend who knows standard deviations says this result for so many hands (17,500) has only a 2% chance of happening. Is it possible that they have programmed to machine somehow. Please don't respond why do I play. I am still ahead because of the promotions and mailers. however, my results should be better.
sincerely
PIC6VIC
video BJ?
Quote: my answer at your blogright off the bat, about 10 times EV doesnt surprise me
that's a lot of hands flat betting
Wizard has SD at 1.15 [different rules, not sure how much that matters]
sqrt [17500] * 1.15 = 1 SD by units
132.2875655532295295 * 1.15 = 152.130700386213958925 units
152.130700386213958925 * $20=$3042.6140077242791785
9513/3042.6 = approx 3.127 standard deviations
your friend is right, your luck has been pretty bad from what I get [I sometimes screw this up]. However I would not call it outrageous.
PS Oh, the EV should be added to this and I skipped that. Probably brings it right at 3 SDs
Quote: odiousgambitwhat is a 'BJ slot machine' anyway?
video BJ?
What else could it be? It can't be a real "slot machine" as there would have to be some limit as to how many cards could be dealt in a hand.
I vaguely remember a blackjack machine at a Tahoe casino around 1970 (played for quarters, I think. back when they still meant something) that had a single screen where each of the 52 cards could light up separately, but that's about as close to a "blackjack slot machine" that I have ever seen.
Quote: ThatDonGuyWhat else could it be? It can't be a real "slot machine" as there would have to be some limit as to how many cards could be dealt in a hand.
I vaguely remember a blackjack machine at a Tahoe casino around 1970 (played for quarters, I think. back when they still meant something) that had a single screen where each of the 52 cards could light up separately, but that's about as close to a "blackjack slot machine" that I have ever seen.
Video blackjack has been around for a long time and there have even been some positive games.
sqrt(17500*(1.32+.48)) = 177.5 $20 bets for each SD
17500*.005= 85 $20 bets expected loss
476 $20 bets realized loss
(476-85)/177.5= 2.2 standard deviations
Quote: ahiromuI was working on this as well, didn't you miss the fact that he's betting twice on the same hand? I assumed it was 17500 total hands, not 17500 pairs of $20.
but 17500 * 20 = 350000, which he says was his total action
-$185.5 was EV, we roughly agree
-$3042.6140077242791785-$185.5 = -$3228.1 [rounded]
that into 9513 = 2.95 SDs approx
re your example, both 476 and 85 should be negative numbers, no? but 476 is wrong if I am right
You could always double check the game to make sure it's legit.
Quote: pic6vicBJ pays 3/2
Look carefully at what happens when you bet twenty dollars and get a black jack. Do your winnings appear on screen? Does the 20 dollars that you bet disappear though?....Don't look at the graphics, look at the credits.
the machine he is referring to is the azure dealers angel, similar to the one at Monte Carlo, Venetian, palazzo, and unmentioned others. It does pay 3:2.Quote: FleaStiffLook carefully at what happens when you bet twenty dollars and get a black jack. Do your winnings appear on screen? Does the 20 dollars that you bet disappear though?....Don't look at the graphics, look at the credits.
$350000 through a game with an expected value of -.00534 right?
350000*-.00534 = -$1869 expected.
Two hands means a standard deviation of 1.35, 17500 total hands played at $20 each. Doesn't the calculation for a single standard deviation become: $20*sqrt(17500)*1.35=$3571
Loss of 9513 means...
(Subtract 1869 to make up for the expected loss then find the multiple of 3571 that fits in the rest)
$9513-1869-3571x=0
x=2.14
2.1 standard deviations
We're both doing short hand math, hopefully you can see where we differ.
So you can count cards on it? LOL.
And why is that funny?Quote: sc15A video blackjack machine that doesn't shuffle every hand?
So you can count cards on it? LOL.
Quote: sc15A video blackjack machine that doesn't shuffle every hand?
So you can count cards on it? LOL.
No, they have a shuffle point which is not detectable.
Quote: ahiromu-$1869
you are correct on the EV, which makes a big diff
not sure how I made that mistake except it was after cocktail hour
you are using 1.35 and I am using 1.15, getting 3042 instead of 3571. We can use 3571.
my source is https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
Quote:2.1 standard deviations
looks like you got the right answer. This means Mr. Badluck here had a fairly ordinary run to the negative. Always a bummer. Better luck next time pic6vic
PS: his bud might have failed to factor EV
Quote: rainmanNo, they have a shuffle point which is not detectable.
Blackjack Blitz had a detectable shuffle point.
Quote: mickeycrimmBlackjack Blitz had a detectable shuffle point.
Yes sir, but those are long gone or I would be crushing them today, Damn I miss those.
Untrue. Some are detectable even on new versions.Quote: rainmanNo, they have a shuffle point which is not detectable.
Crush away then. For a 1 time payment of $1995.00 I'll give you the information.Quote: rainmanYes sir, but those are long gone or I would be crushing them today, Damn I miss those.
Where did you play the BJblitz? I seen very few people exploiting them(actually no one I didn't know well) . Especially at the really good locations with good rules and penetration, cash back,comps, mail.
Was that the ones they had, what is now the entrance to the long WOSP hallway? They had two at one time, neither of them were very good.Quote: rainmanI played it at the rio, I guess it was around 1999-2002ish. At the time I had no advantage
I have never actually crushed these. This is the game I practiced BS on So I miss them. I would like too see what I could do on a machine with excellent rules and a high enough max today.
Most new countable multi player video BJ have horrible penetration and various rules, however I believe penetration is less important because of the incredible heatless bet spread and other perks. You will need to jump your bets significantly because of the bad penetration.
yep. My understanding is that the dealers angel azure model is often countable with abysmal pen. The shufflemaster ones I haven't seen one where the shuffle is detectable. Thing is it's not worth it to count it with themassive spread required To get a decent edge of counting. If the promos/mailers are good you won't want to make $1-$5 bets. If they aren't good almost anybody should be able to find something better. Please no one blow up/kill someones play by publicly posting where to find these machines that come with significant additional benefits.Quote: AxelWolfUntrue. Some are detectable even on new versions.
I wouldn't have even named them. I imagined guys staring at the big tits BJ machines waiting for it to shuffle and thinking we were crazy. Meanwhile mcallister3200 is at the Montecito making his retirement money.Quote: mcallister3200yep. My understanding is that the dealers angel azure model is often countable with abysmal pen. The shufflemaster ones I haven't seen one where the shuffle is detectable. Thing is it's not worth it to count it with themassive spread required To get a decent edge of counting. If the promos/mailers are good you won't want to make $1-$5 bets. If they aren't good almost anybody should be able to find something better. Please no one blow up/kill someones play by publicly posting where to find these machines that come with significant additional benefits.
It's not to much, trust me, anyone really interested with a BR knows already.Quote: mcallister3200Perhaps. Always learning I guess. Know enough not to post something that could obviously hurt me or someone, but should perhaps think more along the mindset of thinking of is it at all possible for it to hurt and brainstorm of a way that it could. It didn't even cross my mind that it might be too much.
Very few people are playing this game its not some huge play.
I just was having fun imaging people who probably couldn't afford to play it anyway wondering around looking at the IGT versions.
Standard deviation when you are playing two hands at the same time is 1.35, that's where I was getting it from. Regardless, yeah, just some tough luck, but can't say the machine is rigged.
Quote: AxelWolfAnd why is that funny?
Because that seems insanely dumb to make an electronic game that doesn't shuffle every hand.
The shuffle is nearly instantaneous so it doesn't cost the house any time (which = money obv) to "shuffle" the "shoe"
apparently he got barred for something at gold strike, he didn't mention what. He has a blog, Google tony bigcharles. Got his roll up to like 17 k now, apparently a winning 1-2 nl grinder. His followers keep telling him to stick to poker and stop playing the damn machine. According to the blog he has aspergers. I wasted an entire afternoon reading that repetitive blog, the internets a funny place.Quote: teddysWhat happened to the mentally ill guy who was holed up at the Gold Strike in Jean trying to beat the Dealer's Angels BJ machine there? He hasn't been here in a while...
Name in red, restricted / suspended, with no explanation on suspension list as to why.
Must be a sock puppet; his posts were not in violation otherwise.
Quote: MrVWhat happened to pic6vic?
Name in red, restricted / suspended, with no explanation on suspension list as to why.
Must be a sock puppet; his posts were not in violation otherwise.
It had to be Forum Rule 5. No six or seven chances for this guy! No guidance, no friendly warning. Just a good old WOV welcome to another member that we will never know. Good job.
Quote: 1BBIt had to be Forum Rule 5. No six or seven chances for this guy! No guidance, no friendly warning. Just a good old WOV welcome to another member that we will never know. Good job.
That's a good point, we should give Spambots a chance.
Quote: Mission146That's a good point, we should give Spambots a chance.
At first I thought you were agreeing with me but I'm not sure. I'm going to plead ignorance when it comes to spambots. I looked up the definition and don't see how it applies here. What I see is a person who was so exited to join this forum that he couldn't contain himself and posted in more than one place. His posts were respectful, they generated some good discussion, no links were dropped and he wasn't selling anything.
Had he been reminded about not posting in more than one place he then could have chosen to comply, which I think he would have. We may have lost one of the best members ever, but we'll never know.
that is bizarre
PS, also without ever apparently coming back to read what was posted in his thread - at least he never commented
Quote: odiousgambithe posted his original post twice, exactly, word for word
that is bizarre
PS, also without ever apparently coming back to read what was posted in his thread - at least he never commented
Three times, if you count his Blog.
Quote: Mission146Three times, if you count his Blog.
oh, yeah.
I can't fathom people like this. He used the Wizard's name, so if he is posting this all over cyberspace then he still had to tailor the posts for this site.
or she I guess
They might want to create a more realistic experience. They probably believe 99% of the guys who believe they can count well enough to beat this situation are fooling themselves. I'm unaware of anyone really talking advantage of these. There's a few gems and a few guys hitting them(and they are wisely not talking).Quote: sc15Because that seems insanely dumb to make an electronic game that doesn't shuffle every hand.
The shuffle is nearly instantaneous so it doesn't cost the house any time (which = money obv) to "shuffle" the "shoe"
For the most part, anyone with the bank and skill to really make a dent are probably playing far better things.
Even when BJ blitz was a strong play, I rarely(if ever) seen others playing them in NV. Perhaps BJ players didn't trust them and VP players stuck to VP. There were very few guys that played anything and everything AP related.
Quote: AxelWolfThey might want to create a more realistic experience. They probably believe 99% of the guys who believe they can count well enough to beat this situation are fooling themselves. I'm unaware of anyone really talking advantage of these. There's a few gems and a few guys hitting them(and they are wisely not talking).
For the most part, anyone with the bank and skill to really make a dent are probably playing far better things.
Even when BJ blitz was a strong play, I rarely(if ever) seen others playing them in NV. Perhaps BJ players didn't trust them and VP players stuck to VP. There were very few guys that played anything and everything AP related.
If they wanted to do that they can just show a shuffle animation every once in a while (while actually shuffling every hand behind the scenes).
The typical ploppy the casino wants to cater to doesn't care about the details of how the shuffle is handled.
I'm not sure if gaming would approve the appearance of a fake shuffle. Obviously there some reason why they offer a game like this, perhaps different licensing or something.Quote: sc15If they wanted to do that they can just show a shuffle animation every once in a while (while actually shuffling every hand behind the scenes).
The typical ploppy the casino wants to cater to doesn't care about the details of how the shuffle is handled.
I used to believe bad pay tables and games don't matter to the average person but DRich's past comments made me think twice.
