pic6vic
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December 6th, 2014 at 9:03:52 AM permalink
ACK SLOT MACHINE IS IT LEGITIMATEDecember 6th, 2014 at 8:40:21 am
i am playing a blackjack slot machine in an Indian casino in California. i would like to know if my results are too far out to be legitimate.

four decks
80 card penetration then shuffle
dealer hits soft 17
BJ pays 3/2
late surrender
split pairs once, double down after splitting except aces
double down any two cards
late surrender

This game is a -0.534 loser. I do play according to the wizards strategy.

I bet 20 dollars per hand, playing 2 hands at a time ($40). since April I have put through $350,000 in action with a loss of $9,513.00. This results in losing around 2.67%. My friend who knows standard deviations says this result for so many hands (17,500) has only a 2% chance of happening. Is it possible that they have programmed to machine somehow. Please don't respond why do I play. I am still ahead because of the promotions and mailers. however, my results should be better.

sincerely

PIC6VIC
ahiromu
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December 6th, 2014 at 10:49:10 AM permalink
2% chance of happening is a big enough probability, you're still only two-ish standard deviations off of average. My guess is you've just had rotten luck, pretty sure a class II slot would pay much worse than a 97% return.
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odiousgambit
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December 6th, 2014 at 11:03:31 AM permalink
what is a 'BJ slot machine' anyway?

video BJ?

Quote: my answer at your blog

right off the bat, about 10 times EV doesnt surprise me

that's a lot of hands flat betting

Wizard has SD at 1.15 [different rules, not sure how much that matters]

sqrt [17500] * 1.15 = 1 SD by units

132.2875655532295295 * 1.15 = 152.130700386213958925 units

152.130700386213958925 * $20=$3042.6140077242791785

9513/3042.6 = approx 3.127 standard deviations

your friend is right, your luck has been pretty bad from what I get [I sometimes screw this up]. However I would not call it outrageous.

PS Oh, the EV should be added to this and I skipped that. Probably brings it right at 3 SDs

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ThatDonGuy
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December 6th, 2014 at 11:46:53 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

what is a 'BJ slot machine' anyway?

video BJ?


What else could it be? It can't be a real "slot machine" as there would have to be some limit as to how many cards could be dealt in a hand.

I vaguely remember a blackjack machine at a Tahoe casino around 1970 (played for quarters, I think. back when they still meant something) that had a single screen where each of the 52 cards could light up separately, but that's about as close to a "blackjack slot machine" that I have ever seen.
mickeycrimm
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December 6th, 2014 at 12:35:31 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

What else could it be? It can't be a real "slot machine" as there would have to be some limit as to how many cards could be dealt in a hand.

I vaguely remember a blackjack machine at a Tahoe casino around 1970 (played for quarters, I think. back when they still meant something) that had a single screen where each of the 52 cards could light up separately, but that's about as close to a "blackjack slot machine" that I have ever seen.



Video blackjack has been around for a long time and there have even been some positive games.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
ahiromu
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December 6th, 2014 at 12:36:42 PM permalink
I was working on this as well, didn't you miss the fact that he's betting twice on the same hand? I assumed it was 17500 total hands, not 17500 pairs of $20.

sqrt(17500*(1.32+.48)) = 177.5 $20 bets for each SD

17500*.005= 85 $20 bets expected loss

476 $20 bets realized loss

(476-85)/177.5= 2.2 standard deviations
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odiousgambit
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December 6th, 2014 at 1:01:42 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I was working on this as well, didn't you miss the fact that he's betting twice on the same hand? I assumed it was 17500 total hands, not 17500 pairs of $20.



but 17500 * 20 = 350000, which he says was his total action

-$185.5 was EV, we roughly agree

-$3042.6140077242791785-$185.5 = -$3228.1 [rounded]

that into 9513 = 2.95 SDs approx

re your example, both 476 and 85 should be negative numbers, no? but 476 is wrong if I am right
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
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December 6th, 2014 at 3:39:06 PM permalink
You should PM me the casino. :)


You could always double check the game to make sure it's legit.
FleaStiff
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December 6th, 2014 at 6:36:32 PM permalink
Quote: pic6vic

BJ pays 3/2


Look carefully at what happens when you bet twenty dollars and get a black jack. Do your winnings appear on screen? Does the 20 dollars that you bet disappear though?....Don't look at the graphics, look at the credits.
mcallister3200
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December 6th, 2014 at 7:25:46 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Look carefully at what happens when you bet twenty dollars and get a black jack. Do your winnings appear on screen? Does the 20 dollars that you bet disappear though?....Don't look at the graphics, look at the credits.

the machine he is referring to is the azure dealers angel, similar to the one at Monte Carlo, Venetian, palazzo, and unmentioned others. It does pay 3:2.
ahiromu
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December 6th, 2014 at 11:33:58 PM permalink
Expected value... I don't think we agree. Shouldn't your expected value be associated with your end result, not each standard deviation?

$350000 through a game with an expected value of -.00534 right?
350000*-.00534 = -$1869 expected.

Two hands means a standard deviation of 1.35, 17500 total hands played at $20 each. Doesn't the calculation for a single standard deviation become: $20*sqrt(17500)*1.35=$3571

Loss of 9513 means...

(Subtract 1869 to make up for the expected loss then find the multiple of 3571 that fits in the rest)
$9513-1869-3571x=0

x=2.14

2.1 standard deviations

We're both doing short hand math, hopefully you can see where we differ.
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sc15
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December 7th, 2014 at 12:17:45 AM permalink
A video blackjack machine that doesn't shuffle every hand?

So you can count cards on it? LOL.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 2:36:50 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

A video blackjack machine that doesn't shuffle every hand?

So you can count cards on it? LOL.

And why is that funny?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rainman
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December 7th, 2014 at 4:00:40 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

A video blackjack machine that doesn't shuffle every hand?

So you can count cards on it? LOL.



No, they have a shuffle point which is not detectable.
odiousgambit
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December 7th, 2014 at 4:58:09 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

-$1869



you are correct on the EV, which makes a big diff

not sure how I made that mistake except it was after cocktail hour

you are using 1.35 and I am using 1.15, getting 3042 instead of 3571. We can use 3571.

my source is https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

Quote:

2.1 standard deviations



looks like you got the right answer. This means Mr. Badluck here had a fairly ordinary run to the negative. Always a bummer. Better luck next time pic6vic

PS: his bud might have failed to factor EV
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mickeycrimm
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December 7th, 2014 at 7:09:24 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

No, they have a shuffle point which is not detectable.



Blackjack Blitz had a detectable shuffle point.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
rainman
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December 7th, 2014 at 7:41:35 AM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

Blackjack Blitz had a detectable shuffle point.



Yes sir, but those are long gone or I would be crushing them today, Damn I miss those.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 8:02:32 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

No, they have a shuffle point which is not detectable.

Untrue. Some are detectable even on new versions.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 8:06:57 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

Yes sir, but those are long gone or I would be crushing them today, Damn I miss those.

Crush away then. For a 1 time payment of $1995.00 I'll give you the information.

Where did you play the BJblitz? I seen very few people exploiting them(actually no one I didn't know well) . Especially at the really good locations with good rules and penetration, cash back,comps, mail.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rainman
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December 7th, 2014 at 8:43:29 AM permalink
I played it at the Rio, I guess it was around 1999-2002ish. At the time I had no advantage I have never actually crushed these. This is the game I practiced BS on So I miss them. I would like too see what I could do on a machine with excellent rules and a high enough max today.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 9:02:08 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

I played it at the rio, I guess it was around 1999-2002ish. At the time I had no advantage

I have never actually crushed these. This is the game I practiced BS on So I miss them. I would like too see what I could do on a machine with excellent rules and a high enough max today.

Was that the ones they had, what is now the entrance to the long WOSP hallway? They had two at one time, neither of them were very good.

Most new countable multi player video BJ have horrible penetration and various rules, however I believe penetration is less important because of the incredible heatless bet spread and other perks. You will need to jump your bets significantly because of the bad penetration.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mcallister3200
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December 7th, 2014 at 10:37:18 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Untrue. Some are detectable even on new versions.

yep. My understanding is that the dealers angel azure model is often countable with abysmal pen. The shufflemaster ones I haven't seen one where the shuffle is detectable. Thing is it's not worth it to count it with themassive spread required To get a decent edge of counting. If the promos/mailers are good you won't want to make $1-$5 bets. If they aren't good almost anybody should be able to find something better. Please no one blow up/kill someones play by publicly posting where to find these machines that come with significant additional benefits.
mcallister3200
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December 7th, 2014 at 10:40:28 AM permalink
Axel I know I quoted your post, please don't interpret the last line of my statement to be directed at you, it is not. It is directed to anyone with such knowledge.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 10:52:44 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

yep. My understanding is that the dealers angel azure model is often countable with abysmal pen. The shufflemaster ones I haven't seen one where the shuffle is detectable. Thing is it's not worth it to count it with themassive spread required To get a decent edge of counting. If the promos/mailers are good you won't want to make $1-$5 bets. If they aren't good almost anybody should be able to find something better. Please no one blow up/kill someones play by publicly posting where to find these machines that come with significant additional benefits.

I wouldn't have even named them. I imagined guys staring at the big tits BJ machines waiting for it to shuffle and thinking we were crazy. Meanwhile mcallister3200 is at the Montecito making his retirement money.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mcallister3200
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December 7th, 2014 at 11:03:00 AM permalink
Perhaps. Always learning I guess. Know enough not to post something that could obviously hurt me or someone, but should perhaps think more along the mindset of thinking of is it at all possible for it to hurt and brainstorm of a way that it could. It didn't even cross my mind that it might be too much.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 11:47:03 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Perhaps. Always learning I guess. Know enough not to post something that could obviously hurt me or someone, but should perhaps think more along the mindset of thinking of is it at all possible for it to hurt and brainstorm of a way that it could. It didn't even cross my mind that it might be too much.

It's not to much, trust me, anyone really interested with a BR knows already.

Very few people are playing this game its not some huge play.

I just was having fun imaging people who probably couldn't afford to play it anyway wondering around looking at the IGT versions.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Venthus
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December 7th, 2014 at 12:52:10 PM permalink
I could've sworn that the Aruze Dealer's Angel units had an animation that showed when the shuffle occurred. Having said that, it's at like 40%pen on 8 decks or something, so it's not all that useful.
ahiromu
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December 7th, 2014 at 2:58:35 PM permalink
My reference was: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/

Standard deviation when you are playing two hands at the same time is 1.35, that's where I was getting it from. Regardless, yeah, just some tough luck, but can't say the machine is rigged.
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teddys
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December 8th, 2014 at 6:20:31 PM permalink
What happened to the mentally ill guy who was holed up at the Gold Strike in Jean trying to beat the Dealer's Angels BJ machine there? He hasn't been here in a while...
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
sc15
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December 8th, 2014 at 6:36:14 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

And why is that funny?



Because that seems insanely dumb to make an electronic game that doesn't shuffle every hand.

The shuffle is nearly instantaneous so it doesn't cost the house any time (which = money obv) to "shuffle" the "shoe"
mcallister3200
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December 8th, 2014 at 7:36:28 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

What happened to the mentally ill guy who was holed up at the Gold Strike in Jean trying to beat the Dealer's Angels BJ machine there? He hasn't been here in a while...

apparently he got barred for something at gold strike, he didn't mention what. He has a blog, Google tony bigcharles. Got his roll up to like 17 k now, apparently a winning 1-2 nl grinder. His followers keep telling him to stick to poker and stop playing the damn machine. According to the blog he has aspergers. I wasted an entire afternoon reading that repetitive blog, the internets a funny place.
MrV
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December 8th, 2014 at 8:29:57 PM permalink
What happened to pic6vic?

Name in red, restricted / suspended, with no explanation on suspension list as to why.

Must be a sock puppet; his posts were not in violation otherwise.
"What, me worry?"
1BB
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December 9th, 2014 at 3:26:34 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

What happened to pic6vic?

Name in red, restricted / suspended, with no explanation on suspension list as to why.

Must be a sock puppet; his posts were not in violation otherwise.



It had to be Forum Rule 5. No six or seven chances for this guy! No guidance, no friendly warning. Just a good old WOV welcome to another member that we will never know. Good job.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Mission146
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December 9th, 2014 at 5:15:03 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

It had to be Forum Rule 5. No six or seven chances for this guy! No guidance, no friendly warning. Just a good old WOV welcome to another member that we will never know. Good job.



That's a good point, we should give Spambots a chance.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
1BB
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December 9th, 2014 at 5:38:02 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That's a good point, we should give Spambots a chance.



At first I thought you were agreeing with me but I'm not sure. I'm going to plead ignorance when it comes to spambots. I looked up the definition and don't see how it applies here. What I see is a person who was so exited to join this forum that he couldn't contain himself and posted in more than one place. His posts were respectful, they generated some good discussion, no links were dropped and he wasn't selling anything.

Had he been reminded about not posting in more than one place he then could have chosen to comply, which I think he would have. We may have lost one of the best members ever, but we'll never know.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
odiousgambit
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December 9th, 2014 at 6:32:56 AM permalink
he posted his original post twice, exactly, word for word

that is bizarre

PS, also without ever apparently coming back to read what was posted in his thread - at least he never commented
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
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December 9th, 2014 at 1:52:30 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

he posted his original post twice, exactly, word for word

that is bizarre

PS, also without ever apparently coming back to read what was posted in his thread - at least he never commented



Three times, if you count his Blog.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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December 9th, 2014 at 2:29:42 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Three times, if you count his Blog.



oh, yeah.

I can't fathom people like this. He used the Wizard's name, so if he is posting this all over cyberspace then he still had to tailor the posts for this site.

or she I guess

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
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December 9th, 2014 at 5:58:38 PM permalink
Quote: sc15

Because that seems insanely dumb to make an electronic game that doesn't shuffle every hand.

The shuffle is nearly instantaneous so it doesn't cost the house any time (which = money obv) to "shuffle" the "shoe"

They might want to create a more realistic experience. They probably believe 99% of the guys who believe they can count well enough to beat this situation are fooling themselves. I'm unaware of anyone really talking advantage of these. There's a few gems and a few guys hitting them(and they are wisely not talking).

For the most part, anyone with the bank and skill to really make a dent are probably playing far better things.

Even when BJ blitz was a strong play, I rarely(if ever) seen others playing them in NV. Perhaps BJ players didn't trust them and VP players stuck to VP. There were very few guys that played anything and everything AP related.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sc15
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December 9th, 2014 at 7:41:08 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

They might want to create a more realistic experience. They probably believe 99% of the guys who believe they can count well enough to beat this situation are fooling themselves. I'm unaware of anyone really talking advantage of these. There's a few gems and a few guys hitting them(and they are wisely not talking).

For the most part, anyone with the bank and skill to really make a dent are probably playing far better things.

Even when BJ blitz was a strong play, I rarely(if ever) seen others playing them in NV. Perhaps BJ players didn't trust them and VP players stuck to VP. There were very few guys that played anything and everything AP related.



If they wanted to do that they can just show a shuffle animation every once in a while (while actually shuffling every hand behind the scenes).

The typical ploppy the casino wants to cater to doesn't care about the details of how the shuffle is handled.
AxelWolf
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December 10th, 2014 at 2:41:56 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

If they wanted to do that they can just show a shuffle animation every once in a while (while actually shuffling every hand behind the scenes).

The typical ploppy the casino wants to cater to doesn't care about the details of how the shuffle is handled.

I'm not sure if gaming would approve the appearance of a fake shuffle. Obviously there some reason why they offer a game like this, perhaps different licensing or something.

I used to believe bad pay tables and games don't matter to the average person but DRich's past comments made me think twice.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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