pic6vic
pic6vic
Joined: Dec 6, 2014
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December 6th, 2014 at 9:03:52 AM permalink
ACK SLOT MACHINE IS IT LEGITIMATEDecember 6th, 2014 at 8:40:21 am
i am playing a blackjack slot machine in an Indian casino in California. i would like to know if my results are too far out to be legitimate.

four decks
80 card penetration then shuffle
dealer hits soft 17
BJ pays 3/2
late surrender
split pairs once, double down after splitting except aces
double down any two cards
late surrender

This game is a -0.534 loser. I do play according to the wizards strategy.

I bet 20 dollars per hand, playing 2 hands at a time ($40). since April I have put through $350,000 in action with a loss of $9,513.00. This results in losing around 2.67%. My friend who knows standard deviations says this result for so many hands (17,500) has only a 2% chance of happening. Is it possible that they have programmed to machine somehow. Please don't respond why do I play. I am still ahead because of the promotions and mailers. however, my results should be better.

sincerely

PIC6VIC
ahiromu
ahiromu
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December 6th, 2014 at 10:49:10 AM permalink
2% chance of happening is a big enough probability, you're still only two-ish standard deviations off of average. My guess is you've just had rotten luck, pretty sure a class II slot would pay much worse than a 97% return.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 6th, 2014 at 11:03:31 AM permalink
what is a 'BJ slot machine' anyway?

video BJ?

Quote: my answer at your blog

right off the bat, about 10 times EV doesnt surprise me

that's a lot of hands flat betting

Wizard has SD at 1.15 [different rules, not sure how much that matters]

sqrt [17500] * 1.15 = 1 SD by units

132.2875655532295295 * 1.15 = 152.130700386213958925 units

152.130700386213958925 * $20=$3042.6140077242791785

9513/3042.6 = approx 3.127 standard deviations

your friend is right, your luck has been pretty bad from what I get [I sometimes screw this up]. However I would not call it outrageous.

PS Oh, the EV should be added to this and I skipped that. Probably brings it right at 3 SDs

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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December 6th, 2014 at 11:46:53 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

what is a 'BJ slot machine' anyway?

video BJ?


What else could it be? It can't be a real "slot machine" as there would have to be some limit as to how many cards could be dealt in a hand.

I vaguely remember a blackjack machine at a Tahoe casino around 1970 (played for quarters, I think. back when they still meant something) that had a single screen where each of the 52 cards could light up separately, but that's about as close to a "blackjack slot machine" that I have ever seen.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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December 6th, 2014 at 12:35:31 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

What else could it be? It can't be a real "slot machine" as there would have to be some limit as to how many cards could be dealt in a hand.

I vaguely remember a blackjack machine at a Tahoe casino around 1970 (played for quarters, I think. back when they still meant something) that had a single screen where each of the 52 cards could light up separately, but that's about as close to a "blackjack slot machine" that I have ever seen.



Video blackjack has been around for a long time and there have even been some positive games.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
ahiromu
ahiromu
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December 6th, 2014 at 12:36:42 PM permalink
I was working on this as well, didn't you miss the fact that he's betting twice on the same hand? I assumed it was 17500 total hands, not 17500 pairs of $20.

sqrt(17500*(1.32+.48)) = 177.5 $20 bets for each SD

17500*.005= 85 $20 bets expected loss

476 $20 bets realized loss

(476-85)/177.5= 2.2 standard deviations
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 6th, 2014 at 1:01:42 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I was working on this as well, didn't you miss the fact that he's betting twice on the same hand? I assumed it was 17500 total hands, not 17500 pairs of $20.



but 17500 * 20 = 350000, which he says was his total action

-$185.5 was EV, we roughly agree

-$3042.6140077242791785-$185.5 = -$3228.1 [rounded]

that into 9513 = 2.95 SDs approx

re your example, both 476 and 85 should be negative numbers, no? but 476 is wrong if I am right
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
RS
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December 6th, 2014 at 3:39:06 PM permalink
You should PM me the casino. :)


You could always double check the game to make sure it's legit.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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December 6th, 2014 at 6:36:32 PM permalink
Quote: pic6vic

BJ pays 3/2


Look carefully at what happens when you bet twenty dollars and get a black jack. Do your winnings appear on screen? Does the 20 dollars that you bet disappear though?....Don't look at the graphics, look at the credits.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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December 6th, 2014 at 7:25:46 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Look carefully at what happens when you bet twenty dollars and get a black jack. Do your winnings appear on screen? Does the 20 dollars that you bet disappear though?....Don't look at the graphics, look at the credits.

the machine he is referring to is the azure dealers angel, similar to the one at Monte Carlo, Venetian, palazzo, and unmentioned others. It does pay 3:2.

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