100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
• Posts: 3059
November 10th, 2014 at 5:29:36 AM permalink
Craps (\$10min): 3/4/5x odds = .37% HE

strategy: Passline/max odds + continuous come/max odds
I press 50% after 4 #s hit.
Someone else flat bets.

both of us start with \$1000 every week.

Both of us should lose ~.37% at the end of our lives?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8409
November 10th, 2014 at 6:02:25 AM permalink
yes, but by percentage, not dollars
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
• Posts: 3059
November 10th, 2014 at 8:19:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

yes, but by percentage, not dollars

wait.. if I and the other player both play start with \$1000 every week for exactly the same # of rolls thru our lifetime, shouldnt we both end up with about the same amount of \$ since the betting system doesn't matter?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 7475
November 10th, 2014 at 8:25:55 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

wait.. if I and the other player both play \$1000/wk for exactly the same # of rolls thru our lifetime, shouldnt we both end up with about the same amount of \$ since the betting system doesn't matter?

Your scenario doesn't make sense. If you both play the same rolls but you raise your bet by half after 4 numbers are rolled while he flat bets - yet you both play the same amount each week - how is that possible?

you and I both make \$100 bets. After 4 numbers rolled you bet \$150, while I bet \$100.

We aren't betting the same anymore.

If we both lose that last roll simultaneously but keep betting until a thousand for the week, I will have lost \$50 more for each roll. Or I will have stopped sooner than you since I hit my loss limit faster.

For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
• Posts: 3059
November 10th, 2014 at 8:50:32 AM permalink
oh.. we both start out with \$1000/wk.
will clarify in my OP.

as for pressing or flat betting, both are betting systems right?

if we both start off w/the same amount of \$ and do the same # of rolls, then both of us should have around the same amount of \$ at the end of our lifetimes?

if not, then the Wiz is wrong??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 7475
November 10th, 2014 at 8:56:26 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

oh.. we both start out with \$1000/wk.
will clarify in my OP.

as for pressing or flat betting, both are betting systems right?

if we both start off w/the same amount of \$ and do the same # of rolls, then both of us should have around the same amount of \$ at the end of our lifetimes?

if not, then the Wiz is wrong??

Well, if you both start out with \$1000 per week then a losing streak will end faster for you since you are raising your bets periodically while your friend does not. Unless, you go past a \$1000 a week loss limit.

So, you will lose more money but it will still be a percentage of what you played, or you will end your game earlier (at the same loss limit) and lose the same amount as the other person.

The Wiz compares flat betting to raising and has declared many times that flat betting has a lot less volatility and therefore more staying power. He has always advocated flat betting to my knowledge because of a longer road to ruin.

But both methods lead to the same endpoint of ruin based on his analyses.

Call the flat-betting road the scenic route if you will. Different road, same destination.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
November 10th, 2014 at 10:16:41 AM permalink
By pressing you gamble more. You lose more \$, which is the same percentage on more action.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5490
November 10th, 2014 at 11:05:00 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

oh.. we both start out with \$1000/wk.
will clarify in my OP.

as for pressing or flat betting, both are betting systems right?

if we both start off w/the same amount of \$ and do the same # of rolls, then both of us should have around the same amount of \$ at the end of our lifetimes?

if not, then the Wiz is wrong??

That's 100% incorrect. At the end of your lifetime, if the HE is .37%, then you will have lost .37% of the amount you wagered. Thus, the other player will have also loss the exact same .37%. Note, the big thing here is PERCENT. So if you wagered 1 million dollars and lost .37%, then you lost \$37,000. Now if the other player only wagered 100,000 in his lifetime (because he was betting less than you) then he lost \$3,700.

HE is based on percent, not dollars. The fact that you wager more means on any one individual trip you can see more variance (i.e. win more, but also lose more). In the long run you will both lose the exact same PERCENTAGE of your amounts wagered (while the actual amounts may differ). The less you wager, the less you lose, which is why NOT playing a game that has a house edge is the only way to not lose money, in the long run.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
• Posts: 3059
November 10th, 2014 at 1:46:58 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

That's 100% incorrect. At the end of your lifetime, if the HE is .37%, then you will have lost .37% of the amount you wagered. Thus, the other player will have also loss the exact same .37%. Note, the big thing here is PERCENT. So if you wagered 1 million dollars and lost .37%, then you lost \$37,000. Now if the other player only wagered 100,000 in his lifetime (because he was betting less than you) then he lost \$3,700.

HE is based on percent, not dollars. The fact that you wager more means on any one individual trip you can see more variance (i.e. win more, but also lose more). In the long run you will both lose the exact same PERCENTAGE of your amounts wagered (while the actual amounts may differ). The less you wager, the less you lose, which is why NOT playing a game that has a house edge is the only way to not lose money, in the long run.

hm.. maybe i didn't make myself clear.

lets say we both start with \$520k and play \$1000/wk for 10yrs then stop forever.
(\$520k/10 yrs = \$52k/yr = \$1000/wk)

at the end of those 10yrs, we both should have about the same amount of \$ in front of us?
the betting system doesn't matter. at the end, we both should have about the same amount of \$ in our pocket?

I'm pressing while he's flat betting.
on shorter rolls, he's ahead. on longer rolls, I'm ahead.
at the end of 10yrs, we both should have about \$520k x .9963 = \$518,076?
(1 - .37% = .9963)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013