All -EV betting systems revert to the House Edge during your lifetime?
strategy: Passline/max odds + continuous come/max odds
I press 50% after 4 #s hit.
Someone else flat bets.
both of us start with $1000 every week.
Both of us should lose ~.37% at the end of our lives?
Quote: odiousgambityes, but by percentage, not dollars
wait.. if I and the other player both play start with $1000 every week for exactly the same # of rolls thru our lifetime, shouldnt we both end up with about the same amount of $ since the betting system doesn't matter?
Quote: 100xOddswait.. if I and the other player both play $1000/wk for exactly the same # of rolls thru our lifetime, shouldnt we both end up with about the same amount of $ since the betting system doesn't matter?
Your scenario doesn't make sense. If you both play the same rolls but you raise your bet by half after 4 numbers are rolled while he flat bets - yet you both play the same amount each week - how is that possible?
you and I both make $100 bets. After 4 numbers rolled you bet $150, while I bet $100.
We aren't betting the same anymore.
If we both lose that last roll simultaneously but keep betting until a thousand for the week, I will have lost $50 more for each roll. Or I will have stopped sooner than you since I hit my loss limit faster.
Please clarify
will clarify in my OP.
as for pressing or flat betting, both are betting systems right?
if we both start off w/the same amount of $ and do the same # of rolls, then both of us should have around the same amount of $ at the end of our lifetimes?
if not, then the Wiz is wrong??
Quote: 100xOddsoh.. we both start out with $1000/wk.
will clarify in my OP.
as for pressing or flat betting, both are betting systems right?
if we both start off w/the same amount of $ and do the same # of rolls, then both of us should have around the same amount of $ at the end of our lifetimes?
if not, then the Wiz is wrong??
Well, if you both start out with $1000 per week then a losing streak will end faster for you since you are raising your bets periodically while your friend does not. Unless, you go past a $1000 a week loss limit.
So, you will lose more money but it will still be a percentage of what you played, or you will end your game earlier (at the same loss limit) and lose the same amount as the other person.
The Wiz compares flat betting to raising and has declared many times that flat betting has a lot less volatility and therefore more staying power. He has always advocated flat betting to my knowledge because of a longer road to ruin.
But both methods lead to the same endpoint of ruin based on his analyses.
Call the flat-betting road the scenic route if you will. Different road, same destination.
Quote: 100xOddsoh.. we both start out with $1000/wk.
will clarify in my OP.
as for pressing or flat betting, both are betting systems right?
if we both start off w/the same amount of $ and do the same # of rolls, then both of us should have around the same amount of $ at the end of our lifetimes?
if not, then the Wiz is wrong??
That's 100% incorrect. At the end of your lifetime, if the HE is .37%, then you will have lost .37% of the amount you wagered. Thus, the other player will have also loss the exact same .37%. Note, the big thing here is PERCENT. So if you wagered 1 million dollars and lost .37%, then you lost $37,000. Now if the other player only wagered 100,000 in his lifetime (because he was betting less than you) then he lost $3,700.
HE is based on percent, not dollars. The fact that you wager more means on any one individual trip you can see more variance (i.e. win more, but also lose more). In the long run you will both lose the exact same PERCENTAGE of your amounts wagered (while the actual amounts may differ). The less you wager, the less you lose, which is why NOT playing a game that has a house edge is the only way to not lose money, in the long run.
Quote: RomesThat's 100% incorrect. At the end of your lifetime, if the HE is .37%, then you will have lost .37% of the amount you wagered. Thus, the other player will have also loss the exact same .37%. Note, the big thing here is PERCENT. So if you wagered 1 million dollars and lost .37%, then you lost $37,000. Now if the other player only wagered 100,000 in his lifetime (because he was betting less than you) then he lost $3,700.
HE is based on percent, not dollars. The fact that you wager more means on any one individual trip you can see more variance (i.e. win more, but also lose more). In the long run you will both lose the exact same PERCENTAGE of your amounts wagered (while the actual amounts may differ). The less you wager, the less you lose, which is why NOT playing a game that has a house edge is the only way to not lose money, in the long run.
hm.. maybe i didn't make myself clear.
lets say we both start with $520k and play $1000/wk for 10yrs then stop forever.
($520k/10 yrs = $52k/yr = $1000/wk)
at the end of those 10yrs, we both should have about the same amount of $ in front of us?
the betting system doesn't matter. at the end, we both should have about the same amount of $ in our pocket?
I'm pressing while he's flat betting.
on shorter rolls, he's ahead. on longer rolls, I'm ahead.
at the end of 10yrs, we both should have about $520k x .9963 = $518,076?
(1 - .37% = .9963)
Quote: 100xOddshm.. maybe i didn't make myself clear.
lets say we both start with $520k and play $1000/wk for 10yrs then stop forever.
($520k/10 yrs = $52k/yr = $1000/wk)
at the end of those 10yrs, we both should have about the same amount of $ in front of us?
the betting system doesn't matter. at the end, we both should have about the same amount of $ in our pocket?
I'm pressing while he's flat betting.
on shorter rolls, he's ahead. on longer rolls, I'm ahead.
at the end of 10yrs, we both should have about $520k x .9963 = $518,076?
(1 - .37% = .9963)
I see what you're asking now, but you're still not giving enough information. When you say you and him play $1000 per week, that means $1000 in ACTION per week, NOT a $1000 bankroll per week. I don't think that's what you meant though. However, if you both bet $1000 action per week, then yes, you would have the same amount of money in 10 years because you both bet the same amount of money (all be it him flat betting or you pressing).
Now, here's what I think you meant to say... You both have a $1k bankroll for the week and both play "your own game" where he flat bets and you play come and press. Here's your mistake that we still touched on earlier. You're betting more money. Even if you both have a $1k "bankroll" for the week, at the end of the week the casino see's your action as let's say $10,000 in bets... but they'll only see his action in let's say $3,000 in bets. Thus you're theoretical loss will be different (monetary wise, not percentage wise). You will both lose .37% of what you BET, not your bankroll. We also don't know what happens if you bust mid-week. Are you forced to wait till the next week or do you keep playing out of your bankroll?
This idea of a $1k bankroll per week is meaningless because it has nothing to do with how much action/betting you're actually doing. As stated before you will both lose .37% of what you BET over the course of "10 years." Just because you have the same starting bankroll doesn't mean you'll start/end with the same amount of money. An easy example is you and I both have $1,000. I bet $10 on red, you bet all $1,000 on black. BOTH red and black carry a house edge of 3.5%. The math says that $10 can expect to lose $3.50, on average... but your $1,000 bet will lose $350, on average. So you both stand to lose at the same HE of -3.5%, yet it's obvious to see you're going to lose more money than I am in the long run because you're exposing more money to the HE than I am. Regardless of both of us starting with $1k, you bet a lot more, so you stand to lose a lot more in the long run.
