TheProfessor
TheProfessor
Joined: Oct 25, 2014
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 15
October 25th, 2014 at 4:47:55 PM permalink
Hi, I am a seasoned gambler, I have been playing Baccarat at the Burswood Casino In Perth Western Australia since the place opened 30 odd years ago.
I love playing the game so I am there seven days a week for three or four hours a day. Now here's the thing, I spent about 15 years trying all sorts of
fancy betting progressions to try and show a profit to no avail, I would always come back to losing the dreaded table % on average.
Then I said to myself If you are going to beat this game you have to do it with flat bets, so I turned my attention to the flow of cards and slowly over a
period of 3 years developed a bet selection method that left me in front over most three hour sessions.
For the last 10 years playing almost every day for three 80 hand shoes and placing about 25 bets per shoe my results vary from minus 2 units
to plus 22 units per three shoe session for an average win of 12 units per session.
Now my problem is that this should not be possible mathematically based on what I have read on this site, so before I move from the main gaming
floor to the high rollers little spot, I would love for someone to calculate wether my extraordinary success can still fall within the bounds of lady luck
and the whole thing will fall apart when I start playing the $100 tables!!
I am interested to hear of anyone else having such a long run of success, or maybe the wizard can make a comment.
bahdbwoy
bahdbwoy
Joined: Aug 23, 2013
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 163
October 25th, 2014 at 4:58:32 PM permalink
so $25 units let say
$25 * 12 = $300
$300 * 200 days lets say
$60,000 a year, simple and easy

if $100 tables will change your mojo you have maintained over 10 yrs...
just play 6 shoes a day and double your money!
soxfan
soxfan
Joined: Oct 10, 2013
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 364
October 26th, 2014 at 7:29:03 PM permalink
Betting flat don't feed the bulldog! Over time you won't win more than 50% of yer placed bets, unless you are the gr8888888one of course. With my style I can win, well and regular even if I win just 16.666666666% of my placed bets, but over time I'll win over 49%, so it's all good, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
supergrass
supergrass
Joined: Apr 6, 2014
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 58
October 26th, 2014 at 7:57:19 PM permalink
Quote: TheProfessor

my results vary from minus 2 units to plus 22 units per three shoe session for an average win of 12 units per session.



So you have played roughly 3000 sessions (10 years x 365 days), flat betting for 75 rounds per session ... and the worst session result is -2 units ? That is amazing, definitely not due to lady luck.

Can anyone in Perth go verify the claim. Just verify no session end up worse than -2 units after 75 flat bets. I think watching "TheProfessor" for 20 sessions would be sufficient prove.
letswin
letswin
Joined: Sep 30, 2014
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 122
October 26th, 2014 at 8:13:45 PM permalink
Quote: TheProfessor

Hi, I am a seasoned gambler, I have been playing Baccarat at the Burswood Casino In Perth Western Australia since the place opened 30 odd years ago.
I love playing the game so I am there seven days a week for three or four hours a day. Now here's the thing, I spent about 15 years trying all sorts of
fancy betting progressions to try and show a profit to no avail, I would always come back to losing the dreaded table % on average.
Then I said to myself If you are going to beat this game you have to do it with flat bets, so I turned my attention to the flow of cards and slowly over a
period of 3 years developed a bet selection method that left me in front over most three hour sessions.
For the last 10 years playing almost every day for three 80 hand shoes and placing about 25 bets per shoe my results vary from minus 2 units
to plus 22 units per three shoe session for an average win of 12 units per session.
Now my problem is that this should not be possible mathematically based on what I have read on this site, so before I move from the main gaming
floor to the high rollers little spot, I would love for someone to calculate wether my extraordinary success can still fall within the bounds of lady luck
and the whole thing will fall apart when I start playing the $100 tables!!
I am interested to hear of anyone else having such a long run of success, or maybe the wizard can make a comment.



Personally, if you can win consistently flat betting? You have beaten the game. Don't ever use progressions. AND.....most importantly, test your method using a simulator. Over a long period of time. Make sure that you test your method over a big enough sample size. That is more important than anything!

Good job man!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 312
  • Posts: 8648
October 27th, 2014 at 5:47:17 AM permalink
Quote: TheProfessor

Hi, I am a seasoned gambler



A gambler calling himself a professor? Not a real professor, or one without math abilities?

Just asking, as an educated person should be able to determine if his results are beyond 3 standard deviations of random results.

PS: and not a sock puppet either?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2791
October 27th, 2014 at 6:42:36 AM permalink
He must be a Gr8player!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
October 27th, 2014 at 7:32:47 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Just asking, as an educated person should be able to determine if his results are beyond 3 standard deviations of random results.

Y'all know when it comes to mathematics its just useless for me but I doubt its a question of education or professors. And I don't know nothing about even one standard deviation, much less three of them things. All you have to do is "be on the lookout for bimbos". If they are all daubing a bit extra perfume before they go to his table and they are all edging their necklines down an inch or so, then you can be sure the three deviations have indeed been met.
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
  • Threads: 328
  • Posts: 7269
October 27th, 2014 at 8:44:14 AM permalink
Quote: TheProfessor

I turned my attention to the flow of cards and slowly over a period of 3 years developed a bet selection method that left me in front over most three hour sessions.



What is this "method" of which you speak?

Be specific, please.

Otherwise, you cannot be taken seriously.
"What, me worry?"
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 5518
October 27th, 2014 at 9:07:06 AM permalink
TL;DR; I'm not even going to tell you how I'm playing... but run the math on this!

Sounds like letswin made another account... I sim'd his theory in his other thread, as he suggested, and it was entirely inaccurate (as was figured by the majority).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

  • Jump to: