The situation is thus, I'm playing craps, and rolling the dice. On comeout rolls, I leave any Come Odds working. At one point, I had all the points covered. Thus, I stood a big chance of losing big on the comeout roll, should I roll a 7. But, any point number rolled meant winning. I believe that the Wizard also suggests leaving the odds working on comeout rolls (even though his craps simulator doesn't allow this. grrr. :) just kidding).
In addition to playing the Pass Line + Odds, and Come Line + odds, I'm playing $1 on the Pass Line for the dealers, with odds for them as well. I also play my favorite hard 10 as a sucker bet, with $5 on that bet, and $1 on that bet for the dealers.
So, several occasions, even though I specifically let the dealer know that I want my odds working, and the dealer even puts the little "on" button on my odds, when I roll the 7, my bets do not disappear. In one circumstance, the bets simply remained on the point numbers. In most of the circumstances, the dealer palmed the "on" button (my take on things), pulled off the odds, gave them to me, and took away all the come bets, as a normally rolled 7 without odds working would have done.
It's possible that these "mistakes" were made because I was the only person at the table making bets for the dealers, even though my bets were not all that large, at least in my opinion.
One time, when a dealer did not take away my bets, and the stick mentioned it to him, the dealer started taking away my bets, and mumbled to the stick that "this guy is the only one tipping us." Later, when it happened again, the stick didn't say anything, and the dealer did not take away my bets.
I've noticed that this doesn't happen AT ALL if the box man is particularly paying attention to what is going on. However, since the play of leaving your odds bets working is a rare one, I think it's easy for the dealer to "mistakenly" not handle the situation as if your odds bet were working.
In another thread, someone talked about making bets that the dealers frequently make mistakes on, as a way of possibly getting a better payout and/or not getting a loss when you should.
I've also noticed that playing at casinos where dealers are newer results in: slower play, but with more player-favored mistakes, especially on more complicated payouts. In this particular circumstance, it seems like the mistakes are offset by the slowness of the game.
My question is, is it possible to utilize these "mistakes", whether intentional or not, to turn the game into a player advantage, or to significantly reduce the house advantage? And, if the situation is that some intentional "mistakes" are being made simply because the player is tipping, does the cost of tipping outweigh the advantage you might receive?
"Utilizing Dealer Mistakes for Positive Expectation" sounds like you're trying to come up with a formula to calculate the value of those mistakes. Can't be done.
If you are trying to calculate them, does the tip intended to induce mistakes figure into the calculation? I hope not, since good ettiquite dictates that you should tip anyway.
Mistakes, even the intentional type you describe, are very much random and can be influenced by the mood of the dealers, and how closely the box and/or floorperson is watching.
There should be no 'Positive Expectation' because you should never expect to get those mistakes.
Last, but not least, is the ethics question. I understand that when it comes to casinos and dealer mistakes in a player's favor, ethics tend to take a beating, and can't really blame you, but I thought I'd bring it up.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI understand that when it comes to casinos and dealer mistakes in a player's favor, ethics tend to take a beating, and can't really blame you, but I thought I'd bring it up.
hmmmm, yes, I think the best policy is to give up that kind of thinking.
I notice no one has ever mentioned outright cheating ideas, so that's good. I came across one that is fairly easy to get away with at a Craps Table, dealer sympathy possibly helping, and that no one has ever mentioned *anywhere* that I have seen. I find I have to force myself to 'just say no' to the idea of trying to pull it off. Something I did by accident once, and the temptation is there, so I am no Saint.
Well, I guess my first thought is that ethics would come to mind in situations where the dealer makes a mistake. I don't mind pointing out the mistake to help the dealer out. However, in situations where the dealer is intentionally doing the wrong thing, in my favor, is it still a question of ethics to insist that the dealer not do so? I have to admit that when the dealer didn't take down all my bets on the comeout of 7, that I was in no mood to point it out to him that he should be taking down my come bets and all odds on all 6 of the points. That's a lot of chips going away for me.
The thing is, the dealer was doing it intentionally for me. He knew what he was doing, and I knew he was doing it for me. That doesn't make it right. In a college accounting class, the professor was discussing certain illegal things that could get you fired and/or in worse trouble. One of the students in the class asked what about if your boss was doing the things and asking you to go along, or one of your co-workers was involved. The professor's answer was, well, you just found someone to share a jail cell with.
If the dealer was doing it every time, then I could see this as a real issue as the dealer would eventually get caught, plus the casino would assume that you are in cahoots with the dealer. On the other hand, if the dealer is only doing it, say 15% of the time, my question still remains, does it become any sort of significant advantage? And if so, is that advantage offset by the tipping?
I tip no matter what the dealers are doing. My thought on this topic was simply, if you are tipping, and the dealers are doing things intentionally that result in your favor (perhaps the word mistake was wrong), do those things result in a better player advantage, and is it enough of an advantage to really offset the cost of the tip in the first place.
Considering going out to dinner, and receiving your bill at the end of your dinner, and the dessert you ordered is not on the bill. Clearly, not saying anything would be ethically/morally wrong. So, you mention to the waiter that your dessert is not on the bill and you need to pay for it. But, let's say you do mention it to the waiter, and he/she says, well you come in here all the time and leave such good tips, I'm not charging you for your dessert this time. Do you insist on paying for the dessert? And if you decide not to, is it still ethically wrong? [This is a circumstance that happens to me at a place I eat at regularly here in Phoenix. Probably about once a month, the waitress gives me my dessert for free. One time, the waitress tried to give me my whole meal for free, but I refused. I know that she is paying for it out of her tips, and I just didn't want her to do that. And yes, it's the waitress offering the free dessert, not the management, owner, or anybody else.] So, I receive a free dessert once a month, but since I tend to tip on the high side (around 50%), I've probably paid well more than that over the course of the month. If I tipped only 15-20%, maybe I wouldn't get a free dessert, but I would have paid less money over the course of the month as well.
I don't play blackjack, so this is a very convoluted example based upon nothing, but let's say you're playing blackjack at $10 a hand. Because you're tipping, the dealer is "flashing" the next card off the top of the deck. Obviously, I don't know how the person would do that, considering the deck is in a shoe, but go with me here. Clearly, seeing the next card must give some kind of huge advantage on knowing whether or not you should hit or stand, the most obvious advantage being that you would never bust out. When you win your hands, you're giving the dealer a $1 tip, 10% of your winnings, which is the reason the dealer is doing this in the first place. I understand that blackjack is a low house expectation game, and knowing the next card must change that expectation somewhat, but is it enough of a change to offset the loss incurred by tipping? For the record, I would state that if I were at a table where this was happening, I would probably just get up and leave. It's nice to have that inside information, but I would foresee to many problems, namely resulting from the casino believing that you and the dealer were in cahoots to rip off the casino and undergoing some sort of legal problems, if not worse.
Again, this is really more of a hypothetical question. I just wonder if such player advantages, if they are resultant, are offset by the tipping.
If a dealer is frequently giving you an advantage that is not allowed by the rules, he or she is stealing from the casino, and you are benefitting.
My feeling on these types of things is that mistakes happen both ways and are often uncorrected. In the long run, true errors probably even out. When you cross the line from "error" to deliberate fudging, however, it becomes dishonesty.
I have to wonder how often this kind of thing could really occur. My understanding is that casino surveillance is pretty robust, and it's even more intense with regard to dealers than patrons.
Well, if you're tipping anyway, then tips don't offset the advantage -- unless your tipping habbits change / increase because of it.Quote: konceptum...my question still remains, does it become any sort of significant advantage? And if so, is that advantage offset by the tipping?
I tip no matter what the dealers are doing.
I do believe it is possible to quantify the benefit of knowing that the dealer will return your working odds to you with probability p on the comeout roll.
Using Markov-style analysis (or just lifting the numbers from someone who has already done the calculations), you can calculate the long term steady state probabilities of having 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 different come out bets working when there is a come out roll. You can also use the # of comeout rolls per hour to estimate how many times per hour you will be in this situation. Knowing that your odds will be returned to you with probability p, you have a advantage on each comeout roll in terms of p and the # of working come bets.
You can then calculate your overall (dis)advantage over all bets in an hour (most of the time the puck will be ON, and you will be at a disadvantage, but in each come out roll, you will have advantage. Take the steady state probabilities of being in these situations x the expectation of each situation). Then compare that to the cost of tipping. For your tipping level and bet size, there will be some breakeven point where you will be making money if p is large enough.
Dealers, on the other hand, are subject to strict rules and have little or no discretion.
This is, after all, the foundation of his 3-Card Poker play.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I, myself, would be quite interested to hear more of Odiousgambit's unscrupulous, "how to", ideas...
Quote: justbrentThe waiter/dessert analogy is false. When a waiter gives you a free dessert and doesn't charge you, typically one of two things is happening. Either the waiter has gotten approval from the manager or the waiter is willing to pay the cost out of his or her own pocket to show gratitude for your regular patronage. Either way, you are not participating or benefitting from dishonesty.
Actually, in the case I was referencing, there is dishonesty going on. The waitress in question is deliberately not getting approval from the manager, and is not herself paying for the dessert. Because it is a small place, she knows that the dessert can "disappear" and nobody will really know where it goes, and further, that nobody is really going to ask or care. On the off chance that someone does remember that "so-and-so" took a piece of pie and delivered it to a customer, she can always then state that yes, and she simply forgot, but she bought the pie for a customer, and then pay for it. However, it's clear that her intention is to NOT pay for, unless she gets caught.
Quote: justbrentIf a dealer is frequently giving you an advantage that is not allowed by the rules, he or she is stealing from the casino, and you are benefitting.
I was talking to a PaiGow Poker dealer this past weekend at the Orleans who related a story about a time when he was dealing, and police officers came in, with security and management. They walked over to another PaiGow Poker dealer, made him stand up, cuffed him, and escorted him out of the casino. It turned out that he was in collusion with one of the players. Basically, if the player was supposed to have lost, he pushed, and if he was supposed to have pushed, he won. Obviously, the casino caught on, and the dealer was arrested and charged. According to the dealer relating the story, the player was NOT charged with anything, but was asked to leave the casino, and not return there, or to any of their sister properties.
When I worked for a major university, I taught classes to managers on how to detect employee theft. One of the main things I always stressed to people was patterns. The vast majority of small-time (and sometimes big-time) embezzlers get caught because of repeated actions on their parts. People who take $20 out of a cash register every day. People who pay a fake employee $100 each week, etc, etc. These people do not benefit from $20 a day, but they figure if they get $20 a day for a week, they'll have $400. The problem is that this pattern is eventually caught. Not always right away, but eventually.
If any dealer was paying out wrong or incorrectly on a CONSISTENT basis, this is just screaming that something is going to happen and people are going to get caught. I would not want to be in that situation at all, because I know that guilt by collusion is going to get pointed at me. But when it happens once in a while, I don't necessarily feel the need to say anything. PaiGow dealer set hands wrong, and craps dealers make errors in favor of patrons.
Someone else (sorry, I don't remember who) said that since my tipping behavior is not going to change, then my expected loss isn't going to change, and that made a lot of sense to me. I still do wonder if the kind of errors that occur, assuming you're not tipping, and you only tip when the error occurs, can end up resulting in a positive expectation, even after taking into account the tipping. But, I understand it's a moot point.
Quote: justbrentI have to wonder how often this kind of thing could really occur. My understanding is that casino surveillance is pretty robust, and it's even more intense with regard to dealers than patrons.
I'm a bit curious about this as well. I have played PaiGow Poker and have had the pit boss receive a call and then come to the PaiGow Poker table, back up all the cards, and verify that someone had a flush, because somebody in security didn't see the flush and thought the payout was wrong. On the other hand, I've seen errors happen at the craps table that don't get caught, such as a person buying in with $20 at the same time as another person buying in with $100, and both people get $100. So, can anybody definitely answer if the surveillance at craps table is less than at other tables? My thoughts are that maybe because there is a lot more action going on, that not everything can get caught. Also because there are basically 4 employees, with a potential pit boss as well watching things, that surveillance figures it's under control.
Errors in my favor are a little trickier because sometimes especially after a few drinks, the math in my head doesn't get completed until I'm putting the chips in the rack, and the table's moving on. Probably the one I've seen most frequently should be the most obvious - I have place bets that I've asked to be "on" on the come out roll, and either the dealer didn't put the "on" button in place, and he doesn't take it away on a seven, or he has the "on" button in place, but just plain fails to take the losing bet on come out seven.
I'm hesitant to point out those situations, not only because it's in my favor, but I'd think in the eyes of the casino it's a much worse sin to fail to collect a losing bet than it is to get called by a player for mispaying a winning bet.
I'm surprised that they didn't go to the video. I was under the impression that EVERY camera has a recorder attached to it. Oh, sure, not every square inch of the casino is covered by a camera, but the only way Surveillance would have seen is would be on a camera....Quote: konceptumI have played PaiGow Poker and have had the pit boss receive a call and then come to the PaiGow Poker table, back up all the cards, and verify that someone had a flush, because somebody in security didn't see the flush and thought the payout was wrong.
That's got nothing to do with it. It's because craps is the only game were an audible counts. Therefore, it's a simple thing for a dealer to claim that the player requested something that was not the case. How can Surveillance fight "I thought I heard..."?Quote: konceptumMy thoughts are that maybe because there is a lot more action going on, that not everything can get caught. Also because there are basically 4 employees, with a potential pit boss as well watching things, that surveillance figures it's under control.
if youre playing a doubledeck blackjack game where hands are dealt facedown, youre supposed to turn your hand faceup if you bust. make a habit out of doing this when its obvious you bust.
now if you happen to get a 3 to 5 card 22, instead tuck your hand confidently under your wager. its likely the dealer may misread your hand as 21 and pay you accordingly. its even more likely getting paid on it if dealer also busts. three card hands you have to be a little more cautious with, something like TT2, obviously turn faceup. but if its something like 679 or 589, you can try tucking your hand.
Quote: DJTeddyBearThat's got nothing to do with it. It's because craps is the only game were an audible counts. Therefore, it's a simple thing for a dealer to claim that the player requested something that was not the case. How can Surveillance fight "I thought I heard..."?
That makes a lot of sense. Now we just need to figure out an audible call that sounds vague enough that we can claim it was something that actually won. :)
Quote: sevenshooterI don't know about the rest of you, but I, myself, would be quite interested to hear more of Odiousgambit's unscrupulous, "how to", ideas...
Well, I don't know that we need to turn ourselves into a Cheater's Symposium here. I guess I will not go into details; as the Wizard says often, he doesn't condone cheating, neither do I [in spite of my user name]. But at the same time I can hardly believe no one else has mentioned this, so without those details, I have just found that it is possible in certain circumstances to pick up your line bet once you go to having a point to make. Like I say, did this by accident once and realized, circumstances being very important, there was little chance of being observed, and if observed, you would just expect to be told to put it back [time to make a note to self, no more of that].
I have made myself resist doing this on purpose. I have been tempted when losing, for one thing there is less scrutiny for someone losing. Not being a Saint, I can't quite shake the idea of doing it, but so far temptation has not won out.
It's one thing to be tipping the dealer and have the dealer 'tip you back'. It's quite another to try to intentionally confuse the dealer and then use the confusion to your advantage.Quote: konceptumThat makes a lot of sense. Now we just need to figure out an audible call that sounds vague enough that we can claim it was something that actually won. :)Quote: DJTeddyBear.... It's because craps is the only game were an audible counts. Therefore, it's a simple thing for a dealer to claim that the player requested something that was not the case. How can Surveillance fight "I thought I heard..."?
The former, when we believe a dealer is cheating on our behalf, can be chalked up to dealer mistakes.
The latter is your own deliberate attempt at cheating. Even if you're tipping a dealer that is known to make these deliberate mistakes, to do anything other than tipping to induce the mistake, would be going too far.
Don't do it.
Quote: odiousgambitWell, I don't know that we need to turn ourselves into a Cheater's Symposium here. I guess I will not go into details; as the Wizard says often, he doesn't condone cheating, neither do I [in spite of my user name]. But at the same time I can hardly believe no one else has mentioned this, so without those details, I have just found that it is possible in certain circumstances to pick up your line bet once you go to having a point to make. Like I say, did this by accident once and realized, circumstances being very important, there was little chance of being observed, and if observed, you would just expect to be told to put it back [time to make a note to self, no more of that].
I have made myself resist doing this on purpose. I have been tempted when losing, for one thing there is less scrutiny for someone losing. Not being a Saint, I can't quite shake the idea of doing it, but so far temptation has not won out.
if youve been playing the donts and been laying $30 as your odds on a 3x4x5 table, instead of laying your odds to the side of your bet, lay your $30 odds behind your bet on the passline. if the shooter makes the point and you get paid, collect the winning passline wager. if the shooter sevens out, and they go to sweep up your passline bet, stop them and say "wtf thats my odds wager." ive been laying the same amount the whole time. since you have already established a frequency of doing this, your claim will be believable.
a good time to do this is when a cocktail waitress happens to come by and you are ordering/receiving a drink so you also have a reason to claim you were distracted. or light a cigarette. step away to make a phonecall or text. if the dealer at any time asks you if that is supposed to be your odds bet, thank him and set it the right way.
this works best at a 3x4x5 odds table since you lay the same amount every hand. and what you lay is a $25 and $5 chip so two chips instead of a stack of chips so can easily go unnoticed as a passline wager so if the shooter makes the point, you are more likely to get paid.
Quote: rudeboyoiinstead of laying your odds to the side of your bet, lay your $30 odds behind your bet on the passline.
Sounds like you get away with that exactly once.
Quote: odiousgambitSounds like you get away with that exactly once.
yep. u can try it on different dealers and different shifts though. the best place to try this is at one of the farends of the table where the dontpass line is smaller.
a lot of these freeroll attempts can only be done once. a good place to try stuff like this though is at the casinos on fremont street so you can just go from one to the next.
another similar situation if you like making place bets, is to make your odds work on the comeout roll. sometimes you will get paid on the placebet. if they dont pay you on the placebet, claim you wanted all your bets working. if your placebet is taken down if a seven comes, say what the heck i just wanted my odds working. if they pay you on the placebet, quit making your bets work on the comeout roll or stop making placebets since now you established a history of making all your bets work.
also i recommend playing the dont come instead of the dont pass. when you place your dont come wager, do it to the side closest to the dealer. so out of the corner of his eye, its difficult to see your bet. if an 11 gets rolled, sometimes he wont even notice your bet there.
also dealers will sometimes forget to take your losing dont come wager down if the point is rolled.
all these things work best at a busy table where other peoples wagers can distract dealers from paying attention to yours.
Ever get on a Casino's Blacklist?
Past-posting and pinching bets aside, a little psychology evens the score.
A whole book should be written on these maneuvers. Priceless!
nothing i do is illegal.
my bets arent large enough to take notice of.
my bets are small enough that its easier for them to just rule in my favor.
i spread my play out over various casinos in the area depending on what i get in the mail.
the way i act or react is all an act. if im supposed to be "outraged" ill act outraged. if something out of the ordinary happens, ill act like it was supposed to happen like if they forget to take down a losing wager or pay me on a losing waer, i wont act in a way to alert them to that fact.
Quote: rudeboyoinever been blacklisted.
nothing i do is illegal.
my bets arent large enough to take notice of.
my bets are small enough that its easier for them to just rule in my favor.
i spread my play out over various casinos in the area depending on what i get in the mail.
the way i act or react is all an act. if im supposed to be "outraged" ill act outraged. if something out of the ordinary happens, ill act like it was supposed to happen like if they forget to take down a losing wager or pay me on a losing waer, i wont act in a way to alert them to that fact.
so where do you draw the line?
Take it as you will for lower house edge/higher frequency of errors etc..
Quote: DiceDemonInteresting thread. I like to play the DP from the end of the table, as close to the back as I can get. I can count on at least one time a session that the dealer will forget to pick up the losing bet. Always wondered if it reduced the edge against me...
If the dealer forgets to pick up your bet once a session, assuming a session of 70 or so come out decisions, that should reduce the house edge to close to nothing. It's like getting an extra push.
At the Venetian a dealer forgot to travel my DC bet to the six and then the very next roll was a six. He set it up and paid it for the camera as his coworkers snickered at him...but he paid it!Quote: DiceDemonInteresting thread. I like to play the DP from the end of the table, as close to the back as I can get. I can count on at least one time a session that the dealer will forget to pick up the losing bet. Always wondered if it reduced the edge against me...
I think most dealer errors are going to help the house but whatever dealer ignorance or lack of experience there is that helps the players is fair game for a player to make use of. If it shaves the house edge a bit to have a careless dealer, that is the casino's problem.
Usually players have been drinking a bit and if they are a bit less honest then than they would be sober... well, its not a big deal. I've probably accepted too much change on occasion from some clerk,,, but I've sure been short changed far more often.
Quote: FleaStiff
Usually players have been drinking a bit and if they are a bit less honest then than they would be sober... well, its not a big deal. I've probably accepted too much change on occasion from some clerk,,, but I've sure been short changed far more often.
they may be less observant but drunk people are definitely more honest than sober people.
Quote: FleaStiffAt the Venetian a dealer forgot to travel my DC bet to the six and then the very next roll was a six. He set it up and paid it for the camera as his coworkers snickered at him...but he paid it!
I think most dealer errors are going to help the house but whatever dealer ignorance or lack of experience there is that helps the players is fair game for a player to make use of. If it shaves the house edge a bit to have a careless dealer, that is the casino's problem.
Usually players have been drinking a bit and if they are a bit less honest then than they would be sober... well, its not a big deal. I've probably accepted too much change on occasion from some clerk,,, but I've sure been short changed far more often.
this doesn't make any sense....if he missed moving the dc to the six the first time, he would move it the second time but he wouldn't pay it until a seven out.
I can't use one of the suggestions some of you have made in this thread, at least not at the casino I play at in Kansas. On their craps table, the don't pass and don't come are on the same space, and all bets are then moved to whatever point was established. So you can't place your own odds, but have to give them the chips to do it.