Dublinbet success....
It's a live baccarat casino with a live dealer. So the whole thing is live. No simulation. No rng. No online casino game program. Real deck, real dealer, real shoe. So I trust the results, 100%.
The max bet is $1500, the minimum bet is $50. I've seen people in atlantic city turn $10,000 into $100,000. But that's because they could bet a max of $10,000. So all they needed was to win 10 in a row.
The startup bank for dublinbet is $1000. After testing my method out for over 6 years, I've created something that has never been done before. I was able to turn the $1000 startup bank into $250,000. Using 100% flat betting. Max bet is $1500, so there's no way I was using a progression, or just got on a lucky streak. $250,000/$1500 is 166 units!
I have been building that bankroll with this account for months. I said to myself, if I can get over $200,000 flat betting then what I have has beaten the game!
I'd have to be CRAZY to not go and use this method now......in a live casino. Please tell me that I have a winner and I'm not crazy. I want honest responses please!
Quote: chickenmanVarmenti returns, and has won back the quarter million he was down. Congrats!
What?
Obviously someone looking just to ruffle feathers.Quote: chickenmanVarmenti returns, and has won back the quarter million he was down. Congrats!
Talk about a batting line if I ever seen one. Does the last sentence absolve members from personal insults?Quote: letswin
I'd have to be CRAZY to not go and use this method now......in a live casino. Please tell me that I have a winner and I'm not crazy. I want honest responses please!
He would be crazy to do anything but cash out his account and start over.
Quote: AxelWolfObviously someone looking just to ruffle feathers.
Talk about a batting line if I ever seen one. Does the last sentence absolve members from personal insults?
He would be crazy to do anything but cash out his account and start over.
I was hoping to only get responses from those familiar with dublinbet. You can create a play money account at dublinbet.com and the play money bets, are decided as if they were real bets, against a live dealer, with a live shoe, in a live casino, with real players in the casino sitting at the table, betting against the same results. It's just a camera hovering over the table. That zooms in on the cards dealt. It's not a traditional "fun money" account like most online casinos, where it's programmed to make you a winner so you'll deposit "real money". Anyone familiar with dublinbet will understand how a fun money account and a real money account, with their live games, is actually the same, despite the fact that you cannot withdraw money you make on the fun money account. :)
OH...so the statement about "varmenti" was an inside joke of the forum? Sorry...I'm new here, I have no idea what that joke means. :/
I really need some advice. I am more than likely going to use the system at a real casino anyway....I just need to hear something from someone, that is convincing enough to stop me, lol. Honestly. I've been playing this game a long time....and what I created.....has done what nothing I've ever used has done. +166 units, flat betting. Biggest drawdown was 5 units. Happens about every +15 - +20
No, I don't think, given what you've said, that you've a successful system.
BTW; it's one thing to build up a bankroll online. It's entirely another to cash it out.
Quote: beachbumbabsWell...
No, I don't think, given what you've said, that you've a successful system.
BTW; it's one thing to build up a bankroll online. It's entirely another to cash it out.
Are you familiar with dublinbet?
Can you give me some math reasons why you think I don't have a successful system?
I am +166 units against real live dealer dealt baccarat hands, flat betting. No simulated nonsense. Any other system I have seen? Could barely make it up to +20 units, before going bust. And that's flat betting. I am not talking about any of those wild progressive systems.
Biggest draw down at any given time is 5 units. That's after being +15-+20 from the new starting point. That's like a 70% edge almost. My math may be way off...but I've been putting this system together for years.
Please give me some math reasons why you believe it's unsuccessful and not just your opinion. No mean to seem pushy...but I am about to go use this thing at a casion. Dublinbet uses 6-7 decks. Which has fairly the same odds as atlantic city and foxwoods 8 deck shoes. So I really need mathematical advice. Based on my numbers....
Quote: Dalex64Advice: Don't play with more money than you are comfortable losing.
I appreciate that! Really I do! It's something even my wife says. We set aside risk capital for this...even though it has been extremely successful in live testing.
But, do you have any mathematical advice? Numbers? Percentages? Something I might be missing?
That's what I'm looking for.
And please.....just for the record...no pm messages about what my system is...I'm not sharing, nor am I looking for investors, partners, or to sell the method. Sorry.
I've worked too hard on it to just devalue it with nonsense like that.
Quote: letswinAre you familiar with dublinbet?
Can you give me some math reasons why you think I don't have a successful system?
I am +166 units against real live dealer dealt baccarat hands, flat betting. No simulated nonsense. Any other system I have seen? Could barely make it up to +20 units, before going bust. And that's flat betting. I am not talking about any of those wild progressive systems.
Biggest draw down at any given time is 5 units. That's after being +15-+20 from the new starting point. That's like a 70% edge almost. My math may be way off...but I've been putting this system together for years.
Please give me some math reasons why you believe it's unsuccessful and not just your opinion. No mean to seem pushy...but I am about to go use this thing at a casion. Dublinbet uses 6-7 decks. Which has fairly the same odds as atlantic city and foxwoods 8 deck shoes. So I really need mathematical advice. Based on my numbers....
It's not possible to give you math reasons either for or against your system without knowing the system. The fact that you're up right now does not validate the system. It just means that you're ahead on a game roughly analogous to a coin flip. Nice result. No telling when it's going to turn against you; again, based on what you've said, which is nothing that is relevant to system success or failure.
I would suggest you try to withdraw your winnings from dublinbet and use those to play at a "real" casino, rather than put other money at risk.
Quote: beachbumbabsIt's not possible to give you math reasons either for or against your system without knowing the system.
Not true, the sum of a series of negative EV wagers is still negative EV, period, end of story.
Reporting results and using those results to 'calculate an edge' is all wrong. All the OP is doing is calculating and reporting short term result.
Quote: MidwestAPNot true, the sum of a series of negative EV wagers is still negative EV, period, end of story.
Well, yes, you're right about that. I was trying to leave a little room for him to further his claims so there was something to work with. Can't debunk a vacuum.
Quote: MidwestAPReporting results and using those results to 'calculate an edge' is all wrong. All the OP is doing is calculating and reporting short term result.
That's what I said.
You have beaten the game. Your system may not have beaten the game, though.
Quote: beachbumbabsIt's not possible to give you math reasons either for or against your system without knowing the system. The fact that you're up right now does not validate the system. It just means that you're ahead on a game roughly analogous to a coin flip. Nice result. No telling when it's going to turn against you; again, based on what you've said, which is nothing that is relevant to system success or failure.
I would suggest you try to withdraw your winnings from dublinbet and use those to play at a "real" casino, rather than put other money at risk.
I'm guessing you're not familiar with dublinbet?
I'm sure there is someone who can give me math reasons based on the results and performance....without knowing the system. Thanks!
Quote: MidwestAPNot true, the sum of a series of negative EV wagers is still negative EV, period, end of story.
Reporting results and using those results to 'calculate an edge' is all wrong. All the OP is doing is calculating and reporting short term result.
If over 5 years and over 3000 shoes is short term, what would be considered long term?
By the way, going from $1000-$250,000 took 1 year. Which included over 12 shoes a day. That's starting out at $100 a unit, then $200 a unit, then $300 a unit....going all the way up to $1500 a unit.
So, in reality, the system is up over 1000 units. But...if you take $250,000/$1500 it's +166 units on $1500 a unit.
Quote: thecesspitTo give a percentage chance of this occurring 'at random' you'd need to know the number of bets made.
You have beaten the game. Your system may not have beaten the game, though.
My system bets every hand. Except maybe a few here or there when a tie occurs. So, that is about 50-60 hands per shoe. That would mean, my system has bet over 180,000 hands.
Does that help?
Quote: letswin
The startup bank for dublinbet is $1000. After testing my method out for over 6 years, I've created something that has never been done before. I was able to turn the $1000 startup bank into $250,000. Using 100% flat betting.!
What does Dublinbet have to do with you having
claimed to beat bac? So go ahead and play there,
so what. I don't get what you want from us.
PS. Nobody here believes your claim, BTW
Quote: EvenBobWhat does Dublinbet have to do with you having
claimed to beat bac? So go ahead and play there,
so what. I don't get what you want from us.
PS. Nobody here believes your claim, BTW
I was kind of reaching out to those familiar with it, so I wouldn't have to explain why I did my testing at dublinbet. It's a live online casino, for real money and fun money play. USA residents, such as myself, can only use the fun money account. The fun money account is only different from the real money where you can actually deposit real money. The baccarat results are both the same for the fun money account and real money account. They use a camera, with a live dealer and live cards on a live casino table with other live players (so you know it's real live card shoe dealt hands.
Therefore the results are not programmed or an rng. Real shoe results as would be in fox woods or atlantic city. Anyone who's familiar with dublinbet, knows, that is probably the best place to test your system or create your system from scratch as you get LIVE results to test against and record.
I believe I have been pretty clear about what I want....at least I thought I was. I'm looking for some math advice, or, some sort of technical probability that would lead me to believe that my system is not a winner, or worth using offline. Whoever doesn't believe me? Just don't respond to my request. :)
Quote: Dalex64I think we can skip the "put up or shut up" phase and move directly to "this conversation has grown tiresome."
So this is not a forum for debate and mathematical advice....this is a place for "show us your system so we can make money on it too, or we're not helping you with nothing"?
Quote: letswinI'm guessing you're not familiar with dublinbet?
I'm sure there is someone who can give me math reasons based on the results and performance....without knowing the system. Thanks!
I'm guessing it's exactly what you claim it is and you're shilling for it here, this being your first day and all. It's becoming increasingly likely that's your whole purpose and you should be banned for trying to push people towards "your" casino with your claims. Jury's still out, since you're participating, though you're saying nothing substantial towards your betting system proof in subsequent posts .
"I'm sure" there isn't anyone who can give you "math reasons" based on your results and performance. You're playing a negative expectation game. You're flat-betting. There is no decision point. So, you've proven nothing beyond good variance.
Personally, if in 180,000 hands, I was up a grand total of 166 units, I'd feel like I was wasting my time. That's more than 1 1/2 years at a full-time job here in the US at 60 hands/hour, and less than .1% return. If I'm understanding the numbers you're claiming.
online casinos who all use the same live feeds
Dublin does. I used to know their names but
don't anymore. And there are lots of live bac
setups at online casinos, DublinBet is not
unique. I still don't know what you want here,
other than to tell us you have a winning system
and are looking for buyers. If you turned $1k
into $250k, you're the expert, not us.
Quote: beachbumbabsI'm guessing it's exactly what you claim it is and you're shilling for it here, this being your first day and all. It's becoming increasingly likely that's your whole purpose and you should be banned for trying to push people towards "your" casino with your claims. Jury's still out, since you're participating, though you're saying nothing substantial towards your betting system proof in subsequent posts .
"I'm sure" there isn't anyone who can give you "math reasons" based on your results and performance. You're playing a negative expectation game. You're flat-betting. There is no decision point. So, you've proven nothing beyond good variance.
Personally, if in 180,000 hands, I was up a grand total of 166 units, I'd feel like I was wasting my time. That's more than 1 1/2 years at a full-time job here in the US at 60 hands/hour, and less than .1% return. If I'm understanding the numbers you're claiming.
I'm shilling for dublinbet? Is that really what you're going with? You can't be serious man. I'm guessing you're not familiar with dublinbet and why I used their fun money account to test my system against their LIVE results. They do not have an affiliate program, nor would I be shilling for them. Do a search on google or youtube, and you'll notice a lot of baccarat players using dublinbets FREE Money account to test their systems against live results. I'm not the only one doing it. So it's not a NEW idea to test your system against live results from the comfort of your home.
I gave performance, max draw down how long I've been using it, how many units it's up, how the units increased over time....everything except revealing the system. I do not need to reveal the system to get math advice after referencing it's performance.
How many jobs have made $250,000 in less than a year on a $1000 starting bank? .....You didn't understand the numbers.
The responses I'm getting are weird. Why is it you guys take this so personal instead of just helping me with some advice? Everything is either a personal attack, an accusation, or something totally off what I intended when making this post. ....it's no wonder there is no real progress being made at this forum...
Quote: letswinMy system bets every hand. Except maybe a few here or there when a tie occurs. So, that is about 50-60 hands per shoe. That would mean, my system has bet over 180,000 hands.
Does that help?
My rough calculation says you are 5 Standard deviations or so away from the expected result, based on 180,000 hands at $1,500 per bet. I realize you are not making $1,500 per bet. That makes this either more unlikely to happen 'by chance'. A -rough- edge per bet you are experiencing is 0.1%, but with out knowing the number of bets at each size, it's hard to say really.
Several options:
1) Dublinbet is not on the square like you think it is
2) You are reporting the results falsely for some reason
a) To make scene here
b) You made a lot of mistakes
c) You are ignoring something critical in your results/reports
3) You have found a method that returns far superior results than chance
4) You got damn lucky.
I suspect 1 or 2. You'll suggest 3 is the answer. If you believe it is 3, go try it with money you can afford to lose. Further analysis of the spread of results would help you discover more about the randomness (or otherwise) of the results you see.
I remain highly skeptical. You won't offer me any proof this has actually occurred, but nor would I expect any. Take that for what it's worth.
Quote: EvenBobFirst of all, DublinBet is owned by a chain of
online casinos who all use the same live feeds
Dublin does. I used to know their names but
don't anymore. And there are lots of live bac
setups at online casinos, DublinBet is not
unique. I still don't know what you want here,
other than to tell us you have a winning system
and are looking for buyers. If you turned $1k
into $250k, you're the expert, not us.
Wow. Is this what this forum is really about??
What live feed I used, has nothing to do with my system. I only wanted to speak to some one familiar with dublinbet or any of its many live feeds as you suggested, so I would not have to explain how I TESTED my system and got my winning results. That is ALL I care about the live feed.
I have mentioned that my system is not for sale, sharing, or partnership, and NEVER have I said anything about looking for buyers.
I will repeat my opening statements in this thread. I am looking for some sort of expert mathematical advice, that I may or may not have missed or not posses. Please, do not come here looking to share my system, partner with me, invest with me, or BUY my system. I will never devalue it with nonsense like that and I have worked too hard on it to share it with ANYONE for ANY reason.
I hope what I'm looking for is much clearer now.
Quote: thecesspitMy rough calculation says you are 5 Standard deviations or so away from the expected result, based on 180,000 hands at $1,500 per bet. I realize you are not making $1,500 per bet. That makes this either more unlikely to happen 'by chance'. A -rough- edge per bet you are experiencing is 0.1%, but with out knowing the number of bets at each size, it's hard to say really.
Several options:
1) Dublinbet is not on the square like you think it is
2) You are reporting the results falsely for some reason
a) To make scene here
b) You made a lot of mistakes
c) You are ignoring something critical in your results/reports
3) You have found a method that returns far superior results than chance
4) You got damn lucky.
I suspect 1 or 2. You'll suggest 3 is the answer. If you believe it is 3, go try it with money you can afford to lose. Further analysis of the spread of results would help you discover more about the randomness (or otherwise) of the results you see.
I remain highly skeptical. You won't offer me any proof this has actually occurred, but nor would I expect any. Take that for what it's worth.
If you're serious about helping me with real advice, ...which it definitely seems like you are....I can allow you to log into my dublin bet account and see the balance of $250,000. It's more now since I've been doing more playing. Oh.....and I would also share a slight aspect of the system with you, ONLY if you are really willing to help me with real advice ....
Please tell me why dublinbet's live results would not be useful for testing? I am able to watch the dealer shuffle the cards, deal the cards, and see the camera display the results. So I know they are real card dealt hands. Is there some flaw in the shuffling? I see them change the cards, as they do in atlantic city and foxwoods. There's also players sitting at the table, betting against the shoe. So, it's definitely shown me integrity.
Here's the life of my system. Started off with $1000. Using $100 units until the balance was $3000. Then $200 units until it was $6000, then $300 units until it was $15,000. Then $600 units until it was $50,000. Then $1500 units until it was $250,000+.
At $1500 a unit, it's +166 units. But, if you calculate the entire life of the system, it's up way over 166 units. I am not trying to make a scene. Really. I did not expect that reaction here at this forum...but, hey, life is about the unexpected.
So, if you are really willing to truly help me with some real math advice, as I have risk capital set aside ready to go and I really want to start my system asap. Then we can talk one on one, via email. And I can leave this forum. I have no use to post here anymore if you're going to help me.
Quote: letswin
What live feed I used, has nothing to do with my system.
If you placed 180K bets on Dublin, you would
be an expert on Dublin by now, believe it. Yet
you seem to know nothing about Dublin, you
seem to think they're unique. It's almost like
you just discovered the place. We see people
like you here all the time, so if we come across
as skeptical, it goes with the territory.
Quote: letswin
Here's the life of my system. Started off with $1000. Using $100 units until the balance was $3000. Then $200 units until it was $6000, then $300 units until it was $15,000. Then $600 units until it was $50,000. Then $1500 units until it was $250,000+.
.
The life of your system is your bet selection,
why you bet where you do. How much you
bet has nothing to do with anything. It's
winning more than you lose that's important,
the money will take care of itself.
Quote: EvenBobIf you placed 180K bets on Dublin, you would
be an expert on Dublin by now, believe it. Yet
you seem to know nothing about Dublin, you
seem to think they're unique. It's almost like
you just discovered the place. We see people
like you here all the time, so if we come across
as skeptical, it goes with the territory.[/q
If you do a search on google and youtube, you'll see there are tons of baccarat players, who have been using dublinbet or any website that allows use of that online feed to test systems for years. As I have been. Maybe I am new to dublinbet. But, if having used it for years to test systems, makes me new to it? Then, I wouldn't know what amount of time I would have to use it to be "not new".
I don't see why you keep bringing up the fact that I tested my system at dublin. That has very little to do with why I am posting here. Dublin simply is the place I used to test my system and obtain my winning results over the time span of my testing.
Quote: EvenBobThe life of your system is your bet selection,
why you bet where you do. How much you
bet has nothing to do with anything. It's
winning more than you lose that's important,
the money will take care of itself.
Right and the person who asked for the response I gave, was looking for more information on how many bets I made, per increment of my units.
Quote: rainmanhttp://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html
Thanks.
But, does that place provide any mathematical advice about my system to help me make a better decision about it's usefulness? I definitely don't need the money the person is offering for the challenge.
Quote: letswinThanks.
But, does that place provide any mathematical advice about my system to help me make a better decision about it's usefulness? I definitely don't need the money the person is offering for the challenge.
This is getting boring. How can anybody give
you advice without knowing what your bet
selection is. Why do you bet banker or player.
THAT is your system, not how much you bet.
If you win 6 out of 10 bets, for instance,
you can bet $10 or $10,000, what does it
matter, you're going to come out ahead.
Quote: EvenBobThis is getting boring. How can anybody give
you advice without knowing what your bet
selection is. Why do you bet banker or player.
THAT is your system, not how much you bet.
If you win 6 out of 10 bets, for instance,
you can bet $10 or $10,000, what does it
matter, you're going to come out ahead.
You know what, I can't argue this point.... "How can anybody give you advice without knowing what your bet selection is".... that's a very good point. A very good one. I feel like I have to keep my system to myself. I know....how else can I get help if I don't reveal it....I don't really know, I just know I need the help.
I'm private messaging a member about my system now. It seems his knowledge can help me. Thanks for all your help guys!
Quote: letswinThanks.
But, does that place provide any mathematical advice about my system to help me make a better decision about it's usefulness? I definitely don't need the money the person is offering for the challenge.
Yes as soon as the system gets simulated Micheal will provide you with the outcome which will show you its mathematical
uselessness, therefore you can make a better decision to not use it. However if you get lucky and win I will gladly
accept the 30k since you don't need/want it.
Quote: rainmanYes as soon as the system gets simulated Micheal will provide you with the outcome which will show you its mathematical
uselessness, therefore you can make a better decision to not use it. However if you get lucky and win I will gladly
accept the 30k since you don't need/want it.
Oh, so I would have to reveal my system to him in order to get the advice? I'm not really looking to have my system simulated, I've done more than enough testing.
Not interested. However, thank you!
Quote: beachbumbabsWell...
No, I don't think, given what you've said, that you've a successful system.
BTW; it's one thing to build up a bankroll online. It's entirely another to cash it out.
Are you saying you might not always be able to cash winnings out in an online casino?
Quote: letswinI'm not really looking to have my system simulated, I've done more than enough testing.
Then WHY ARE YOU HERE! You are smart
enough to test and increase your BR times
250, yet you need 'advice' on what, exactly.
I still have no idea what you're asking.
Quote: EvenBobThen WHY ARE YOU HERE! You are smart
enough to test and increase your BR times
250, yet you need 'advice' on what, exactly.
I still have no idea what you're asking.
I'm all confused and dizzy from going in circles.
Quote: EvenBobThen WHY ARE YOU HERE! You are smart
enough to test and increase your BR times
250, yet you need 'advice' on what, exactly.
I still have no idea what you're asking.
Looking for math advice based on my testing and performance. I am currently getting that advice from a member here via pm. Search is over. thanks. :)
Quote: letswinLooking for math advice based on my testing and performance. I am currently getting that advice from a member here via pm
Tell one person, you've told a thousand. If
this is even true that you PM'd somebody here.
Quote: EvenBobTell one person, you've told a thousand. If
this is even true that you PM'd somebody here.
Ok.
42 posts in 12 hours for a system bac thread.
sheesh,
Are we going for Varmenti's 1238 replies in his ridiculous bac system thread.
These are the kind of threads I want to see die.
I though about some smart alec remark responding to Letswim (varmenti version 2) , but what's the point.
Quote: terapined
I though about some smart alec remark responding to Letswim (varmenti version 2) , but what's the point.
But LetsWin is the perfect system seller
name. It's not a name of somebody who
just wants mysterious 'advice'.
Quote: terapinedCmon Guys,
42 posts in 12 hours for a system bac thread.
sheesh,
Are we going for Varmenti's 1238 replies in his ridiculous bac system thread.
These are the kind of threads I want to see die.
I though about some smart alec remark responding to Letswim (varmenti version 2) , but what's the point.
This forum is really something.
I don't see how hard it is to just either help me out, or just not respond to my post. I have already said, I am currently exchanging pms with a member here getting all the advice I need. :)
Thanks for all the help!
Quote: letswinThis forum is really something.
I don't see how hard it is to just either help me out, or just not respond to my post. I have already said, I am currently exchanging pms with a member here getting all the advice I need. :)
Thanks for all the help!
Good. I'm glad you found what you need. Thanks for finally making it clear you were playing with play money. I genuinely hope your system makes you a millionaire, and you cut in the person helping you in some meaningful way.
Since you have no further use for this thread, I'm closing it. Do let us know how it goes.
