Craps prop
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August 24th, 2014 at 5:32:36 PM
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Here is a craps prop that has some merit I believe
See what you think of it?
Playing at a 20 times odds crap table $15.00 minimum bet
Bet $15.00 on the pass line
Catch a 6 or an 8, the only action is the pass line bet
Catch a 4, 5, 9, or a 10 for a point
Take $100.00 odds
7 out = -$115.00
Pass = + $165.00 or + $215.00
If shooter makes point the next bets stay the same, if he falls off,
Dice move to the next shooter
Bet $15.00 on the pass line
6 or 8 (no odds action)
4, 5, 9, or 10
Take $200.00 odds
7 out = -$330.00
Pass = +$200.00 or +$300.00
Everything follows this progression
Next pass line bet will increase to $20.00 because your odds bet will be $400.00
Assuming this shooter falls off ( misses his point)
Next pass line bet will increase to $40.00 because your odds bet will be $800.00
If this shooter falls off
Next and final move upward will be $80.00 on the pass line and $1600.00 odds
Total investment (bankroll needed) for all 5 levels is $3270.00
However you should be able to fire at least two barrels ($6540.00) if not three barrels ($9810.00)
I never continue at that table once the system fails (goes down all 5 levels)
I walk and do something else for awhile, then come back ready for war again!
At a different table!
This system works, I am a little over $28,000.00 winner in the last 3 weeks.
Actual times at the table were 17.
Average time at the table 2 hrs
Number of times the system failed. 3
So, in about 34 hours of play I'm up $28k
That's $823.00 an hour
It ain't foolproof, it goes down, but it takes 5 different shooters in a row to make it fail!!!
If you're a crap shooter and you know something about the game, would you bet you could throw a single 10 on the dice before you throw five 7's!!!
Because that's exactly what has to happen to beat you, in fact it's really harder to beat you because some of those 5 levels will have a 5 or a 9 for a point.
Look it over and if you try it out let me know how you did.
You can tweak the amounts bet very easily if you want to play smaller
Example; at a 10 times odds casino
5/20
5/40
8/80
16/160
32/320
Total bankroll (686)
See what you think of it?
Playing at a 20 times odds crap table $15.00 minimum bet
Bet $15.00 on the pass line
Catch a 6 or an 8, the only action is the pass line bet
Catch a 4, 5, 9, or a 10 for a point
Take $100.00 odds
7 out = -$115.00
Pass = + $165.00 or + $215.00
If shooter makes point the next bets stay the same, if he falls off,
Dice move to the next shooter
Bet $15.00 on the pass line
6 or 8 (no odds action)
4, 5, 9, or 10
Take $200.00 odds
7 out = -$330.00
Pass = +$200.00 or +$300.00
Everything follows this progression
Next pass line bet will increase to $20.00 because your odds bet will be $400.00
Assuming this shooter falls off ( misses his point)
Next pass line bet will increase to $40.00 because your odds bet will be $800.00
If this shooter falls off
Next and final move upward will be $80.00 on the pass line and $1600.00 odds
Total investment (bankroll needed) for all 5 levels is $3270.00
However you should be able to fire at least two barrels ($6540.00) if not three barrels ($9810.00)
I never continue at that table once the system fails (goes down all 5 levels)
I walk and do something else for awhile, then come back ready for war again!
At a different table!
This system works, I am a little over $28,000.00 winner in the last 3 weeks.
Actual times at the table were 17.
Average time at the table 2 hrs
Number of times the system failed. 3
So, in about 34 hours of play I'm up $28k
That's $823.00 an hour
It ain't foolproof, it goes down, but it takes 5 different shooters in a row to make it fail!!!
If you're a crap shooter and you know something about the game, would you bet you could throw a single 10 on the dice before you throw five 7's!!!
Because that's exactly what has to happen to beat you, in fact it's really harder to beat you because some of those 5 levels will have a 5 or a 9 for a point.
Look it over and if you try it out let me know how you did.
You can tweak the amounts bet very easily if you want to play smaller
Example; at a 10 times odds casino
5/20
5/40
8/80
16/160
32/320
Total bankroll (686)
August 24th, 2014 at 5:52:10 PM
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Quote: ThomasHere is a craps prop that has some merit I believe
See what you think of it?
It ain't foolproof, it goes down, but it takes 5 different shooters in a row to make it fail!!!
)
You are playing a negative expectation game, but with your method of betting, a large portion of your bets are true fair odds bets. You have been lucky so far, but not extraordinarily so. Your 'expected value' from your system would probably have you only down a few hundred dollars. The variance on 20 x odds craps betting is large. 5 separate 4,5,9,or 10 points going down, without one of them hitting, probably happens a lot more frequently than you think. Maybe a member here will run a simulation and give you some numbers you can digest.
August 24th, 2014 at 6:04:32 PM
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Thanks, I would like to find out the exact probability of it losing. I wish someone with a simulator would run it for me, that would be great!!!
August 24th, 2014 at 6:17:18 PM
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BTW, I call it completed when I win 5 bets before I lose the 5 levels.
I'm just superstitious about continuing after I complete 5 wins, so I walk and sometimes I quit for the day and sometimes
I play again at that same table a little later. Don't know if that makes any difference reasonably speaking, but I'm pretty sure it would make absolutely
no difference mathematically. At any rate, it's working and I'm thrilled with the results so far!
I'm just superstitious about continuing after I complete 5 wins, so I walk and sometimes I quit for the day and sometimes
I play again at that same table a little later. Don't know if that makes any difference reasonably speaking, but I'm pretty sure it would make absolutely
no difference mathematically. At any rate, it's working and I'm thrilled with the results so far!
August 24th, 2014 at 6:21:30 PM
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a craps prop?
please explain that one
#1) How much you willing to pay?
also, you must have some thoughts about this.
#2) what do you think the chance of losing one Total investment (bankroll) Is?
50%, 40%, 35% or lower like maybe only 3%
how about too,
to lose at least "two barrels"
everyone has feelings, even member Ahigh who still has not completed the simulation he said he would finish.
so I would, in my opinion, not ask him for simulation results but he could easily do the math for you.
I LOVE his math methods
a sim will have some error in the results unless we run it almost forever and never stop it.
But compared to the actual calculations would be fun, in my opinion
you answer my 2 questions first and I will answer yours
because playing craps = fun
and winning money playing craps = more fun
I love fun
Sally
please explain that one
It can be calculated exactly too.Quote: ThomasThanks, I would like to find out the exact probability of it losing.
#1) How much you willing to pay?
also, you must have some thoughts about this.
#2) what do you think the chance of losing one Total investment (bankroll) Is?
50%, 40%, 35% or lower like maybe only 3%
how about too,
to lose at least "two barrels"
everyone has feelings, even member Ahigh who still has not completed the simulation he said he would finish.
so I would, in my opinion, not ask him for simulation results but he could easily do the math for you.
I LOVE his math methods
your wish can come trueQuote: ThomasI wish someone with a simulator would run it for me, that would be great!!!
a sim will have some error in the results unless we run it almost forever and never stop it.
But compared to the actual calculations would be fun, in my opinion
you answer my 2 questions first and I will answer yours
because playing craps = fun
and winning money playing craps = more fun
I love fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 24th, 2014 at 6:43:31 PM
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So sorry, I'm not into spending, but I would appreciate knowing the results of your run.
I am 3/17 in wins vs. losses. So far in the probability area of losing 3 bankrolls in 17 plays it looks to me like a little under 18% of the time I'm going down a system.
I am 3/17 in wins vs. losses. So far in the probability area of losing 3 bankrolls in 17 plays it looks to me like a little under 18% of the time I'm going down a system.
August 24th, 2014 at 7:07:46 PM
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Am I close Sally?
August 24th, 2014 at 7:14:23 PM
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"Let us assume from now on that the gambler plays an unfavorable game, that is, p < 1/2. This, after all, is the typical situation for a gambler at a casino. It turns out, surprisingly to many, that the gambler minimizes her ruin probability by playing boldly, that is, by playing at the highest stakes possible.
http://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/269080125258.pdf
http://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/269080125258.pdf
aahigh.com
August 24th, 2014 at 7:15:52 PM
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I bet $1 you spend on something.Quote: ThomasSo sorry, I'm not into spending,
I also like to receive compliments on my efforts (does not have to be monetary)
and for a successful effort, all the praises of fame that goes with it.
(unlike Frank Scoblete, who when I showed 2 other shooter qualification systems BETTER - meaning they out perform the 5 count system - than HiS 5 count, he got quiet and was not impressed, as if the system IS his baby (system))
Both those systems are not mine, I just did the math on them.
so you want to know the chance, with your starting bankroll, of only winning 5 bets before losing the 5 steps. I call that xQuote: Thomasbut I would appreciate knowing the results of your run.
I am 3/17 in wins vs. losses. So far in the probability area of losing 3 bankrolls in 17 plays it looks to me like a little under 18% of the time I'm going down a system.
the chance to lose would then be 1 - x
we shall see what the data shows
I have some baby sitting tonight, so maybe by tomorrow night at the latest
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 24th, 2014 at 7:41:08 PM
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Ahigh, you are in the wrong room.Quote: Ahigh"
go back out to the hall, turn left and the 3rd door on the right is what you are looking for
Have fun!
You can study about S. N. Ethier
IMPROVING ON BOLD PLAY AT CRAPS (1985-1987)
(line with odds) "...this strategy is superior to bold play..."
Sally Oh
I Heart Vi Hart
August 24th, 2014 at 7:41:56 PM
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is a $15 pass line win (point 6 or 8) included?Quote: ThomasBTW, I call it completed when I win 5 bets before I lose the 5 levels.
or is it 5 odds bets wins?
I Heart Vi Hart
August 24th, 2014 at 7:46:31 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyAhigh, you are in the wrong room.
go back out to the hall, turn left and the 3rd door on the right is what you are looking for
Have fun!
You can study about S. N. Ethier
IMPROVING ON BOLD PLAY AT CRAPS (1985-1987)
(line with odds) "...this strategy is superior to bold play..."
Sally Oh
Thanks so much Sally. YOU ROCK!
aahigh.com
August 24th, 2014 at 7:59:21 PM
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The $15.00 pass line bet on 6 & 8 are losing bets and are not significant enough to worry about in the grand scheme of this particular betting strategy.
I am guessing because I don't actually keep records on it, but I would say I am probably down 20 bets over the 34 hours of play. That's like $300.00!
My comps from the casino more than make up for that small of a loss. Free room any night, free food at the best restaurants, cash money offers to come and play,
and free treatments at the spa. So, I'd say, "Just don't figure in the $15.00 pass line bets on the 6 & 8.
I am guessing because I don't actually keep records on it, but I would say I am probably down 20 bets over the 34 hours of play. That's like $300.00!
My comps from the casino more than make up for that small of a loss. Free room any night, free food at the best restaurants, cash money offers to come and play,
and free treatments at the spa. So, I'd say, "Just don't figure in the $15.00 pass line bets on the 6 & 8.
August 24th, 2014 at 8:01:04 PM
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yes, you have a beautiful wifeQuote: AhighThanks so much Sally. YOU ROCK!
I actually liked what you first wrote and removed.
I am in the restroom and you really need to wait until I am done
you can see I am changing the baby's diaper (not mine)
wow! what a load!
mega dump from a 6 month old.
(I wonder why you are in the women's restroom?, maybe to clean, OK, fine)
see you in church next week
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 24th, 2014 at 8:02:21 PM
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No, to answer the question correctly, they don't figure into the equation.
August 24th, 2014 at 8:02:23 PM
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OkayQuote: ThomasSo, I'd say, "Just don't figure in the $15.00 pass line bets on the 6 & 8.
that was my first thought about it
back to the baby
you can read my last post too
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 24th, 2014 at 8:10:58 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyyes, you have a beautiful wife.
thanks
aahigh.com
August 24th, 2014 at 8:21:34 PM
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your best AP results
August 24th, 2014 at 8:22:54 PM
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Thanks Sally
I'm anxious to see the result
I'm anxious to see the result
August 24th, 2014 at 8:49:03 PM
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Quote: ThomasSo sorry, I'm not into spending, but I would appreciate knowing the results of your run.
I am 3/17 in wins vs. losses. So far in the probability area of losing 3 bankrolls in 17 plays it looks to me like a little under 18% of the time I'm going down a system.
Finding this pretty ironic, Thomas, that you would come on a board full of professional mathematicians and expect them to sim your system for free, but you're willing to put 6-10K on a craps table on a hunch you can't validate. I paid my math guy, and I expect pretty much everybody else around here does as well. Sally or any of the others are certainly free to help you, and the math folks often do help people, but something about the way you've approached this is a big turn-off to me, especially your first day here. I don't have the expertise, so I will bow out at this point.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 24th, 2014 at 9:29:23 PM
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ROFLMAOQuote: beachbumbabsyour first day here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 24th, 2014 at 10:13:49 PM
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Line up all the cash and snap a photo for us. I don't know about others here but I love seeing photos of cash won at the tables. $28,000, right?
aahigh.com
August 24th, 2014 at 10:16:35 PM
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Exactly, Just write a note whith it.Quote: AhighLine up all the cash and snap a photo for us. I don't know about others here but I love seeing photos of cash won at the tables. $28,000, right?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 24th, 2014 at 10:25:40 PM
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I would post a pix of the $48,320 I won at craps this weekend, but I just wired it to Nigeria to free up the $28,000,000 the Prime Minister's widow bequeathed to me.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
August 24th, 2014 at 11:20:12 PM
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If close = 18% plus/minus 9%Quote: ThomasAm I close Sally?
no
I ran this in WinCraps 5.1c with the code below
When . . .
Initializing Auto-Bet
then . . .
Name Chip-Stack # 7 as "point wins"
Name Chip-Stack # 8 as "completed sessions"
Name Chip-Stack # 9 as "points lost"
Set Auto-Handle Winning Bets to "Same Bet - Take Winnings"
Bet $ 1 on Chip-Stack # 0
Bet $ 15 on Chip-Stack # 1
Bet $ 15 on Chip-Stack # 2
Bet $ 20 on Chip-Stack # 3
Bet $ 40 on Chip-Stack # 4
Bet $ 80 on Chip-Stack # 5
Bet 100 % of Chip-Stack ref # 0 on Pass Line
Bet $ 11 on Chip-Stack # 10
Bet $ 100 on Chip-Stack # 11
Bet $ 200 on Chip-Stack # 12
Bet $ 400 on Chip-Stack # 13
Bet $ 800 on Chip-Stack # 14
Bet $ 1600 on Chip-Stack # 15
Go to "end"
When . . .
A point is decided "against" the number 4, 5, 9, or 10
then . . .
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 0
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 9
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 10
When . . .
Next roll is a come-out roll
Pass Line is equal to $ 0
then . . .
Bet 100 % of Chip-Stack ref # 0 on Pass Line
When . . .
Last roll was a come-out roll
A point is established on the number 4, 5, 9, or 10
then . . .
Bet 100 % of Chip-Stack ref # 10 on Pass Line Odds
When . . .
Pass Line Odds has won each time
then . . .
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 7
Bet $ 1 on Chip-Stack # 0
Bet 100 % of Chip-Stack ref # 0 on Pass Line
Bet $ 11 on Chip-Stack # 10
status
When . . .
Chip-Stack # 7 is equal to $ 5
or when . . .
Chip-Stack # 0 is equal to $ 6
or when . . .
Pass Line is equal to $ 0
then . . .
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 8
Reset table (preserve Chip-Stacks)
Bet $ 1 on Chip-Stack # 0
Bet $ 0 on Chip-Stack # 7
Bet $ 0 on Chip-Stack # 9
Bet 100 % of Chip-Stack ref # 0 on Pass Line
Bet $ 11 on Chip-Stack # 10
When . . .
Chip-Stack # 8 is equal to $ 10000
then . . .
Stop Auto-Rolling / Hyper-Drive
end
I used actual dice rolls and just the rng#1 in WinCraps.
results coming soon (to the highest bidder)
the math can be done too
tonight was all about BBB
burping, belching and barfing
a lot from a 6 month old.
boys know how to be cute at that age
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 25th, 2014 at 12:04:13 AM
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Beautiful work!!!
Looks exactly right, results should be very interesting!
Can't wait, thank you Sally
Looks exactly right, results should be very interesting!
Can't wait, thank you Sally
August 25th, 2014 at 12:14:24 AM
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Your baby boy? Name?
They are a load at that age, we have two sons, but it's been a few years
since they were six months young. One is 39, the other is 42, but I remember
how tired my wife was after a day of chasing them at just a slightly older age than yours is now.
So really, thanks again for your work, it's a special favor when you are so busy attending a
young one's needs.
They are a load at that age, we have two sons, but it's been a few years
since they were six months young. One is 39, the other is 42, but I remember
how tired my wife was after a day of chasing them at just a slightly older age than yours is now.
So really, thanks again for your work, it's a special favor when you are so busy attending a
young one's needs.
August 25th, 2014 at 12:44:39 AM
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My initial intent was to offer it up, the craps betting system that is, for anyone else
to try it out. Having such great success with it and wanting to share it and I guess
maybe brag a little in the process was my total intent. If I have somehow offended
you or your sense of postings on this site, I apologize, I meant no harm.
to try it out. Having such great success with it and wanting to share it and I guess
maybe brag a little in the process was my total intent. If I have somehow offended
you or your sense of postings on this site, I apologize, I meant no harm.
August 25th, 2014 at 2:43:33 AM
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If I am following this , you are increasing your bets when you lose your odds bets, only placing those when it's not a 6 or 8 for some reason, willing to go up to 5 steps. Do I have that right?
Essentially, your other action are like events that never happen; not enough bet to matter. It's a question of whether you get 5 losses in a row when pressing after a big loss. Do I have that right?
Well, looks like a variant of old man Martingale. 5 losses in a row when the chances of losing each trial are better than winning per trial? that looms pretty big.
The thing is, if a player wants to play 20x odds, he lives in a different universe. You can flat bet and do well too. Or you can try to see if the House is lucky enough with shooters to take down a progression; you've settled on one that seems like magic to you. I would venture to say exactly when you decide to press could be totally different. A lot of guys would not place odds on anything but 6 or 8, since they are easier to make. That would work even more often, just for less reward. It just doesn't matter when you decide to press, it only seems like it IMO. Try pressing when you're on a winning streak!
At 20x odds, the passline bet becomes a minor event, everything revolves around the odds winning or losing in that universe. I have played 10x odds and had passline crap-outs at double the expected rate and said "Meh, who cares?" many times. At 20x odds it's even more ethereal up there. It is quite possible to go a lifetime and be ahead, simulations do prove that! The only thing is, I would never EVER tell anyone to expect that. The way of the world is, the guy who doesn't need the money is the guy that will happen to [an unscientific statement I am willing however to bet on].
Congratulations on gutsy play! ANY kind of stepping up to the plate and playing $15 table at full 20x odds gets my full admiration for boy-does-that-take-balls play! Go for it! I am glad you have been lucky.
The thing is [see my 'never EVER' statement above] you have bragging rights, Sir, but really the only thing I would tsk tsk about is really you should not encourage anybody to try to do what you have done. Anybody with less than some $250k bankroll. I hope you have something similar. And the guts to play through a losing streak.
Essentially, your other action are like events that never happen; not enough bet to matter. It's a question of whether you get 5 losses in a row when pressing after a big loss. Do I have that right?
Well, looks like a variant of old man Martingale. 5 losses in a row when the chances of losing each trial are better than winning per trial? that looms pretty big.
The thing is, if a player wants to play 20x odds, he lives in a different universe. You can flat bet and do well too. Or you can try to see if the House is lucky enough with shooters to take down a progression; you've settled on one that seems like magic to you. I would venture to say exactly when you decide to press could be totally different. A lot of guys would not place odds on anything but 6 or 8, since they are easier to make. That would work even more often, just for less reward. It just doesn't matter when you decide to press, it only seems like it IMO. Try pressing when you're on a winning streak!
At 20x odds, the passline bet becomes a minor event, everything revolves around the odds winning or losing in that universe. I have played 10x odds and had passline crap-outs at double the expected rate and said "Meh, who cares?" many times. At 20x odds it's even more ethereal up there. It is quite possible to go a lifetime and be ahead, simulations do prove that! The only thing is, I would never EVER tell anyone to expect that. The way of the world is, the guy who doesn't need the money is the guy that will happen to [an unscientific statement I am willing however to bet on].
Congratulations on gutsy play! ANY kind of stepping up to the plate and playing $15 table at full 20x odds gets my full admiration for boy-does-that-take-balls play! Go for it! I am glad you have been lucky.
The thing is [see my 'never EVER' statement above] you have bragging rights, Sir, but really the only thing I would tsk tsk about is really you should not encourage anybody to try to do what you have done. Anybody with less than some $250k bankroll. I hope you have something similar. And the guts to play through a losing streak.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 25th, 2014 at 3:35:36 AM
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Quote: ThomasMy initial intent was to offer it up, the craps betting system that is, for anyone else
to try it out. Having such great success with it and wanting to share it and I guess
maybe brag a little in the process was my total intent. If I have somehow offended
you or your sense of postings on this site, I apologize, I meant no harm.
Show us the money.
aahigh.com
August 25th, 2014 at 5:50:54 AM
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Quote: ThomasHere is a craps prop that has some merit I believe
See what you think of it?
So, in about 34 hours of play I'm up $28k
That's $823.00 an hour
pics of cash or gtfo
oh an no stock photo of cash
If you really do have 28k laying around then a quick picture with a note on it should be simple enough.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 25th, 2014 at 7:33:33 AM
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Exactly, it is a martingale, and I'm sure I have been lucky. I know and realize of course
that casinos do not just rise up from the dust and continue to flourish by losing to some
pilgrim with a system. My pop told me a long time ago, " Anything or anyone that will back
it's butt up against a wall and take on all comers is to be avoided!" They have the edge!
I just like it because it allows me to build comp status and stay at the table for longer
periods of time without having to catch a hot roll. That and the fact that I'm winning of course.
In fact, for me, if the dice chop, (win one lose two,win two lose
one, win one lose one) it's great for me. The feature that sells it for me is simply the fact
that I cannot be taken out hard by one shooter. One shooter really has no effect on my chances.
It takes 5 different shooters missing their points, in a row, to beat me, and as I posted before,
it happens. I know I am going to get beat for 5 levels in a row, it's just a matter of time. However,
the current tread could continue. If not, well the absolute best they will recover from me at any
given loss will be around $3200.00 I will walk, and try my best to change up the streak of losses
by moving to another table, or another casino, or another state if necessary.
Thank you for the gutsy statement, but it's not really true, I had faith this would work in my
favor and so far it has. If it suddenly falls the other way, well I'm sure the coward in me will
show it's rosy red nose!!!
that casinos do not just rise up from the dust and continue to flourish by losing to some
pilgrim with a system. My pop told me a long time ago, " Anything or anyone that will back
it's butt up against a wall and take on all comers is to be avoided!" They have the edge!
I just like it because it allows me to build comp status and stay at the table for longer
periods of time without having to catch a hot roll. That and the fact that I'm winning of course.
In fact, for me, if the dice chop, (win one lose two,win two lose
one, win one lose one) it's great for me. The feature that sells it for me is simply the fact
that I cannot be taken out hard by one shooter. One shooter really has no effect on my chances.
It takes 5 different shooters missing their points, in a row, to beat me, and as I posted before,
it happens. I know I am going to get beat for 5 levels in a row, it's just a matter of time. However,
the current tread could continue. If not, well the absolute best they will recover from me at any
given loss will be around $3200.00 I will walk, and try my best to change up the streak of losses
by moving to another table, or another casino, or another state if necessary.
Thank you for the gutsy statement, but it's not really true, I had faith this would work in my
favor and so far it has. If it suddenly falls the other way, well I'm sure the coward in me will
show it's rosy red nose!!!
August 26th, 2014 at 10:56:35 AM
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thank youQuote: ThomasBeautiful work!!!
I did not use any colors
buts you did wait!Quote: ThomasLooks exactly right, results should be very interesting!
Can't wait, thank you Sally
I also took issue with you NOT taking odds when the point is 6 or 8 as when I played your system in WinCraps, I lost 5 steps
even though I had won a point of 6 or 8.
here is the code I used that can be copied and pasted into WinCraps Pro
(Ahigh, you done yet with your simulations? How about using a Pro Craps program like WinCraps... it always finishes the simulations I run)
two versions
odds on only points 4,5,9,10 followed by my version of odds on every point
progression by Thomas
If
Initializing script
Then
Name cs7 as "point wins" :
Name cs8 as "completed sessions" :
Name cs9 as "points lost" :
AutoHandle Winning bets = "Same Bet - Take Winnings" :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $15 on cs1 :
Bet $15 on cs2 :
Bet $20 on cs3 :
Bet $40 on cs4 :
Bet $80 on cs5 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
Bet $100 on cs11 :
Bet $200 on cs12 :
Bet $400 on cs13 :
Bet $800 on cs14 :
Bet $1600 on cs15 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
Beginning new session
Then
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $0 on cs7 :
Bet $0 on cs9 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
A point is decided AGAINST the any(4, 5, 9, 10)
Then
Add $1 to cs0 :
Add $1 to cs9 :
Add $1 to cs10
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll And
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine
EndIf
If
Last roll was a comeout roll And
A point is established on the any(4, 5, 9, 10)
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs10) on PassLineOdds
EndIf
If
PassLineOdds wins
Then
Add $1 to cs7 :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10
EndIf
: "status" :
If
cs7 is equal to $5
Or
cs0 is equal to $6
Or
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Add $1 to cs8 :
Start new session(preserve checkstacks) :
EndIf
If
cs8 is equal to $100000
Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf
: "end" :
'odds progression on ALL points
If
Initializing script
Then
Name cs7 as "point wins" :
Name cs8 as "completed sessions" :
Name cs9 as "points lost" :
AutoHandle Winning bets = "Same Bet - Take Winnings" :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $15 on cs1 :
Bet $15 on cs2 :
Bet $20 on cs3 :
Bet $40 on cs4 :
Bet $80 on cs5 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
Bet $100 on cs11 :
Bet $200 on cs12 :
Bet $400 on cs13 :
Bet $800 on cs14 :
Bet $1600 on cs15 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
Beginning new session
Then
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $0 on cs7 :
Bet $0 on cs9 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
A point is decided AGAINST the any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
Add $1 to cs0 :
Add $1 to cs9 :
Add $1 to cs10
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll And
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine
EndIf
If
Last roll was a comeout roll And
A point is established on the any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs10) on PassLineOdds
EndIf
If
PassLineOdds wins
Then
Add $1 to cs7 :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10
EndIf
: "status" :
If
cs7 is equal to $5
Or
cs0 is equal to $6
Or
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Add $1 to cs8 :
Start new session(preserve checkstacks) :
EndIf
If
cs8 is equal to $100000
Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf
: "end" :
odds on only points 4,5,9,10 followed by my version of odds on every point
progression by Thomas
If
Initializing script
Then
Name cs7 as "point wins" :
Name cs8 as "completed sessions" :
Name cs9 as "points lost" :
AutoHandle Winning bets = "Same Bet - Take Winnings" :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $15 on cs1 :
Bet $15 on cs2 :
Bet $20 on cs3 :
Bet $40 on cs4 :
Bet $80 on cs5 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
Bet $100 on cs11 :
Bet $200 on cs12 :
Bet $400 on cs13 :
Bet $800 on cs14 :
Bet $1600 on cs15 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
Beginning new session
Then
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $0 on cs7 :
Bet $0 on cs9 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
A point is decided AGAINST the any(4, 5, 9, 10)
Then
Add $1 to cs0 :
Add $1 to cs9 :
Add $1 to cs10
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll And
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine
EndIf
If
Last roll was a comeout roll And
A point is established on the any(4, 5, 9, 10)
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs10) on PassLineOdds
EndIf
If
PassLineOdds wins
Then
Add $1 to cs7 :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10
EndIf
: "status" :
If
cs7 is equal to $5
Or
cs0 is equal to $6
Or
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Add $1 to cs8 :
Start new session(preserve checkstacks) :
EndIf
If
cs8 is equal to $100000
Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf
: "end" :
'odds progression on ALL points
If
Initializing script
Then
Name cs7 as "point wins" :
Name cs8 as "completed sessions" :
Name cs9 as "points lost" :
AutoHandle Winning bets = "Same Bet - Take Winnings" :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $15 on cs1 :
Bet $15 on cs2 :
Bet $20 on cs3 :
Bet $40 on cs4 :
Bet $80 on cs5 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
Bet $100 on cs11 :
Bet $200 on cs12 :
Bet $400 on cs13 :
Bet $800 on cs14 :
Bet $1600 on cs15 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
Beginning new session
Then
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet $0 on cs7 :
Bet $0 on cs9 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10 :
GoTo "end"
EndIf
If
A point is decided AGAINST the any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
Add $1 to cs0 :
Add $1 to cs9 :
Add $1 to cs10
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll And
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine
EndIf
If
Last roll was a comeout roll And
A point is established on the any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
Bet 100% of cs(cs10) on PassLineOdds
EndIf
If
PassLineOdds wins
Then
Add $1 to cs7 :
Bet $1 on cs0 :
Bet 100% of cs(cs0) on PassLine :
Bet $11 on cs10
EndIf
: "status" :
If
cs7 is equal to $5
Or
cs0 is equal to $6
Or
PassLine is equal to $0
Then
Add $1 to cs8 :
Start new session(preserve checkstacks) :
EndIf
If
cs8 is equal to $100000
Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf
: "end" :
so I ran the sims twice, with same dice rolls too.
In Zumma actual dice rolls (losing probability)
T = 42.42%
S = 31.8%
opinion: Sally wins (error +/- 0)
over 160,000 sessions
(rates did not change from 10k-50k-100k)
Thomas (about 60/40 - win/lose)
Sally wins again
But Thomas is up $28k in real casino wins
nothing like variance!
shhhh
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 26th, 2014 at 11:54:15 AM
permalink
Quote: ThomasMy initial intent was to offer it up, the craps betting system that is, for anyone else
to try it out. Having such great success with it and wanting to share it and I guess
maybe brag a little in the process was my total intent. If I have somehow offended
you or your sense of postings on this site, I apologize, I meant no harm.
Thomas,
I appreciate your intent. The Wizard says that (paraphrasing) no betting systems are profitable in the long run, and he and the other mathematicians are most adamant about it. So when a new poster comes on with a betting system, craps or otherwise, it tends to be Christians vs. Lions in here, hence less than a full welcome for you. Nothing personal about it. It's just that systems don't hold up under the math; they might work for a short period of time, and great for you that yours is, but in my non-math estimation you will bump up against either the averages or the table maximum pretty soon and see it for yourself.
You're welcome to continue the conversation if you like, but don't be surprised if you're the only one supporting your arguments. Again, I appreciate you wanting to discuss it with other people interested in craps. And I appreciate you not trying to sell anything, which will get you suspended. The conventional wisdom is, if a guy has a craps system that works, he's out playing it while not burning it out by having everybody do it. If a guy has a craps system that sort-of works, or looks like it might work, he's making his money selling it to other craps players, not winning with it at the tables.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 26th, 2014 at 1:21:24 PM
permalink
beachbumbabs,
I have absolutely no argument with the fact that the math will not support ANY betting system, mine or anyone else's.
I was and am fully aware that at some point in the extended play of this betting system, I will lose, it's just a matter of time.
However, unless I completely lose my mind, I will never encounter the table maximum. My biggest bet is $1600.00 and
when I lose it ( and I will ) I will quit, down $3200.00 or less for that particular session.
I do appreciate you inviting me to continue the conversation though,( is this site an open forum? ) and I particularly like
the way you smacked me around once again with your not so subtle, ( supporting my arguments ) & ( conventional wisdom )
statements. Have I done something wrong again? Have I offended you again?
A condescending tone is not polite, not even to a new person on this site.
Administrator or not
I choose not to continue
7out!
I have absolutely no argument with the fact that the math will not support ANY betting system, mine or anyone else's.
I was and am fully aware that at some point in the extended play of this betting system, I will lose, it's just a matter of time.
However, unless I completely lose my mind, I will never encounter the table maximum. My biggest bet is $1600.00 and
when I lose it ( and I will ) I will quit, down $3200.00 or less for that particular session.
I do appreciate you inviting me to continue the conversation though,( is this site an open forum? ) and I particularly like
the way you smacked me around once again with your not so subtle, ( supporting my arguments ) & ( conventional wisdom )
statements. Have I done something wrong again? Have I offended you again?
A condescending tone is not polite, not even to a new person on this site.
Administrator or not
I choose not to continue
7out!
August 26th, 2014 at 1:37:37 PM
permalink
ummmmmmmmmmm
huh?
huh?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 26th, 2014 at 1:46:57 PM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitummmmmmmmmmm
huh?
Yeah, weird!?
August 27th, 2014 at 6:24:59 AM
permalink
Thomas,
If you re-read my post while considering my intent, which was to sympathize with your being less than embraced and celebrated in presenting your system, I would appreciate it. This is a tough crowd, and they see a lot of these; I was encapsulating the general response any such system gets here in attempting to explain why you got the reception you did. If you prefer to see me as condescending and insulting, I can't help with that, but I am sorry that was your impression. Good luck with your system and future bets.
If you re-read my post while considering my intent, which was to sympathize with your being less than embraced and celebrated in presenting your system, I would appreciate it. This is a tough crowd, and they see a lot of these; I was encapsulating the general response any such system gets here in attempting to explain why you got the reception you did. If you prefer to see me as condescending and insulting, I can't help with that, but I am sorry that was your impression. Good luck with your system and future bets.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 27th, 2014 at 8:06:00 AM
permalink
still it is their opinions because they treats (trick or treat)Quote: beachbumbabsThe Wizard says that (paraphrasing) no betting systems are profitable in the long run, and he and the other mathematicians are most adamant about it.
the long run as forever.
all of them, in my opinions
over a finite number of lifetime bets
there is always 1 chance in < infinity any betting system can be profitable
this is a mathematical fact
and is only possible because of variance
the averages or the table maximum.Quote: beachbumbabsIt's just that systems don't hold up under the math; they might work for a short period of time, and great for you that yours is, but in my non-math estimation you will bump up against either the averages or the table maximum pretty soon and see it for yourself.
Thomas example was using a $15 pass line bet to start
The Marty is on the odds
and
The best damn craps web site on the net. Period.
says this
"III. If you're using a system progression, use it with the Free Odds."
http://www.nextshooter.com/commandments10
Thomas Odds Marty can easily be adjusted to $5 but the 20x odds is the hardest tables to find easily.
so gots to work the math for lower odds factors
I took issue with only taking the odds on outside numbers and never on the 6&8Quote: beachbumbabsYou're welcome to continue the conversation if you like, but don't be surprised if you're the only one supporting your arguments.
my sim data shows I win more often (taking odds every point) and my expected loss is way way lower than just hammering those outside numbers only
my question would be
what player could even make 1 trillion lifetime bets in a real casino? (or team)
I think that is fantasy
so the chance of any betting system showing a lifetime profit for one person >0
how about for every person out of 1 million persons?
0 or >0 or
1 in ?
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 27th, 2014 at 8:16:09 AM
permalink
Quote: beachbumbabsThomas,
If you re-read my post while considering my intent, which was to sympathize with your being less than embraced and celebrated in presenting your system, I would appreciate it. This is a tough crowd, and they see a lot of these; I was encapsulating the general response any such system gets here in attempting to explain why you got the reception you did. If you prefer to see me as condescending and insulting, I can't help with that, but I am sorry that was your impression. Good luck with your system and future bets.
THOMAS, please use some of those winning to buy a hat. Then stop back here and I will tell you what to do with that hat.
Respectfully, Buzzard
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
August 27th, 2014 at 9:17:34 AM
permalink
There you go disrespecting hats again.Quote: BuzzardTHOMAS, please use some of those winning to buy a hat. Then stop back here and I will tell you what to do with that hat.
Respectfully, Buzzard
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 27th, 2014 at 7:34:20 PM
permalink
Without even peeking into your small world, I can tell, you don't have a clue about hats, and what's underneath them!
August 27th, 2014 at 9:07:08 PM
permalink
It's more a question of what's in them ! How is that growing crops thing going? Need a seed catalog ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
