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JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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August 3rd, 2014 at 4:39:39 AM permalink
Quote: RS

This one's got some potential. Spunky, I like that.


Martingale is break-even because it is being applied to a game with 0% house edge. It is not the system that determines the EV, it's the HE that determines the EV. Some systems will just experience more variance than others (ie: a 1-10-100-1000-10000 player will feel some variance, while the 1-1-1-1-1-1 bettor will feel very little variance).



Spunky, spoken like someone with control of the reigns, someone who doesn't know that, that's a dangerous position to be in, no? You know, like, the loftier the dream, the deeper the crater, Caesar and all :)

So, you showed the 1-10-100-1000-10000, shows a lot of variance, you also showed flat betting, kinda missed the D'alembert, though. How's that do on 0% house edge?

Sorry, so you can understand, the worse the system, the worse the EV. If I bet 1-10000-1000000-100000000-1000000000, that's worse than a marty, what if I bet a much better system, say a D'alembert, 1-2-3-4-3-4-3-4-3-2-1-2-3-2-1, How did I do there? Better system, better results, right.

But, for the 5th time, I'm just looking for a mathematical equation for the EV on the D'Alembert, that's all. If you've got one please feel free to share it, if you don't think one can ever be calculated, feel free to share that as well.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 3rd, 2014 at 4:45:36 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

The D'Alembert is the "Edge" on a 50/50,

Have you found a game that has a 50/50?

does this helphttp://mathworld.wolfram.com/dAlembertsSolution.html
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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August 3rd, 2014 at 4:48:22 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Have you found a game that has a 50/50?



Sure, a coin flip, why? You trying to make money on a coin flip? I used to know a guy... What's this got to do with a mathematical equation for the EV on A D'Alembert?
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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August 3rd, 2014 at 4:58:58 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Spunky, spoken like someone with control of the reigns, someone who doesn't know that, that's a dangerous position to be in, no? You know, like, the loftier the dream, the deeper the crater, Caesar and all :)

So, you showed the 1-10-100-1000-10000, shows a lot of variance, you also showed flat betting, kinda missed the D'alembert, though. How's that do on 0% house edge?

Sorry, so you can understand, the worse the system, the worse the EV. If I bet 1-10000-1000000-100000000-1000000000, that's worse than a marty, what if I bet a much better system, say a D'alembert, 1-2-3-4-3-4-3-4-3-2-1-2-3-2-1, How did I do there? Better system, better results, right.

But, for the 5th time, I'm just looking for a mathematical equation for the EV on the D'Alembert, that's all. If you've got one please feel free to share it, if you don't think one can ever be calculated, feel free to share that as well.



Total action / rounds = average bet
(1+2+3+4+3+4+3+4+3+2+1+2+3+2+1)/15 = 2.533

EV = average bet * edge
EV = 2.5333 * 0.00
EV = 0.0


Would you like to show me a another example? As many times as I've tried, I've never been able to multiply a number by 0 and get anything other than 0.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:07:19 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

wLwLWLWL
wwLLWWLL
wwwwLLLL
wwwwWWWW

LWLWLWLL
LLWWLLWL
LLLLWWWW
LLLL L L L L

That's the possible outcomes for 4 in a row. That's 64 trials, 32 wins/32 losses. How's the D'Alembert doing there, is it winning? How about the Marty, breaking about even? That's the "proof" that the D'Alembert beat a 50/50 game. You can do that for how ever many trials you want. D'Alembert still wins, Marty still breaks even. Or you can look at another thread where someone did a simulation for a million trials.

But, again, I'm just looking for a mathematical formula for the EV on the D'alembert. Not even sure if one exists at this point.

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL What now? Lest add a W then LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL................
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:08:20 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Total action / rounds = average bet
(1+2+3+4+3+4+3+4+3+2+1+2+3+2+1)/15 = 2.533

EV = average bet * edge
EV = 2.5333 * 0.00
EV = 0.0


Would you like to show me a another example? As many times as I've tried, I've never been able to multiply a number by 0 and get anything other than 0.



Kiddo, what I've been trying to tell you, and if one of these math gods attempts the EV for the D'Alembert ,will explain to you, is that average bet * edge, is complete and utter nonsense. Sorry, you've been hoodwinked, bamboozled, etc. You're missing all the complexities of mathematical probabilities, like, if I lose 1 then bet 2 and win, I just won 1 unit, as opposed to average bet of 3*0=0. I'm kinda looking for the formula that cannot be unproven within the first 10 seconds, if that helps any.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:12:22 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL What now? Lest add a W then LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL................

?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:17:17 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

?



Not sure what you're going for here, but is this a fair game? or do you need to buy a revolver? Losing 25 in a row, followed by a win and then losing 25 in a row again, think you're getting cheated, if not, no worries, you'll win 25 in a row and lose 1 then win 25 in a row again in pretty short order. Making the D'alembert a winner again.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:24:32 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Not sure what you're going for here, but is this a fair game? or do you need to buy a revolver? Losing 25 in a row, followed by a win and then losing 25 in a row again, think you're getting cheated, if not, no worries, you'll win 25 in a row and lose 1 then win 25 in a row again in pretty short order. Making the D'alembert a winner again.

what about 30 losses in a row?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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August 3rd, 2014 at 5:27:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

what about 30 losses in a row?



Fair game? or Cheated - non 50/50 game?

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