Blackjack Martingale odds
This is the maximum number of times I can double down in blackjack at the local casino due to a low spread between min and max.
1. Does this mean that out of every 122 hands, this will occur 1 time?
2. Does more people at the table mean less of a chance of this happening since there's 5 people it could happen to?
3. If reaching my goal would require 135 hands, what are the odds of losing 7 in a row before reaching my target?
4. How many 8-deck shoes on average with a cut card will it take before 7 straight losses are dealt to 1 player?
5. I know last time I posted one of these my 1 in ...... Odds were incorrect, this time they''re not
If your goal is to lose money, then the answers to your questions mean nothing (because you're going to lose either with or without the answers).
Quote: ThebinginengineOdds of losing 7 hands in a row under the local casino's rules = 1 in 122
This is the maximum number of times I can double down in blackjack at the local casino due to a low spread between min and max.
1. Does this mean that out of every 122 hands, this will occur 1 time?
yes
2. Does more people at the table mean less of a chance of this happening since there's 5 people it could happen to?
no
3. If reaching my goal would require 135 hands, what are the odds of losing 7 in a row before reaching my target?
135 hands? Is it not 135 winning hands?
4. How many 8-deck shoes on average with a cut card will it take before 7 straight losses are dealt to 1 player?
Depends on the number of players at the table (# of cards per hand is different, so the shoe empties faster)
5. I know last time I posted one of these my 1 in ...... Odds were incorrect, this time they''re not
1 in N odds are for sport gamblers. Probabilities are better for calculation.
but they are wrong!Quote: ThebinginengineOdds of losing 7 hands in a row under the local casino's rules = 1 in 122
5. I know last time I posted one of these my 1 in ...... Odds were incorrect, this time they''re not
probability of losing 7 BJ hands in a row is about .52*.52*.52*.52*.52*.52*.52 = 0.01028071702528 or about 1 in 92.27 Attempts NOT hands played
IF your 1 in 122 was correct NO.Quote: Thebinginengine1. Does this mean that out of every 122 hands, this will occur 1 time?
1 in 122 attempts and each attempt to lose 7 in a row is not one hand in length.
1 in 122, on average, would be correct for the very next 7 hands played. not 8 or 10 hands played
Next 7 hands would be the second attempt. etc.
Who among the masses wants to disagree with William Feller on this one?
a streak calculator would help out hereQuote: Thebinginengine3. If reaching my goal would require 135 hands, what are the odds of losing 7 in a row before reaching my target?
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html
with a losing probability = 0.52
the probability of losing at least 1 time in 135 hands would be 0.486431520947831
at least 2 times in 135 hands would be 0.130913896517855 (1 in 7.64)
at least 3 times in 135 hands would be 0.021938672527188 (1 in 45.58)
avg # of hands would be about 200 to lose 7 in a row
that comes from 0.52^7 * 2.061915173 (the average attempt length)
(1+ 0.52 +0.2704 +0.140608+ 0.07311616+ 0.038020403+ 0.01977061)
(1+p+p^2+p^3+p^4+p^5+p^6)
why the obsession with a Marty?
a Marty only doubles bankrolls, on average, about 32 out of 100 attempts before that first BIG loss
BIG loss = more fun
one can do way better than that just betting all you have at one bet
how lucky do you think you really are?
Sally
Quote: ThebinginengineOdds of losing 7 hands in a row under the local casino's rules = 1 in 122
1 in 122 is about 0.5034^7. I think that means your local casino has a 0.7% house edge in blackjack, so you're using this number, right? BUT, that doesn't mean you have a 49.66% chance of winning any given non-pushed hand. You'll win about 48% of those hands, and splits & doubles will add value to help you bridge the gap from 4% to 0.7% on the HE. Sally's math on the true odds of losing 7 in a row looks right to me.
