Roulette 2:1 bets
That said, I'm curious.
If I were to place a bet on 1-12 and 13 -24 and the wheel spun a 14, would it be beneficial to place my next bet on 1-12 and 25 - 36 since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.
Cheers,
=8=
Quote: Alien8edBetting systems are bunk... I know this from experience.
That said, I'm curious.
If I were to place a bet on 1-12 and 13 -24 and the wheel spun a 14, would it be beneficial to place my next bet on 1-12 and 25 - 36 since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.
Cheers,
=8=
Blackjack the only casino game that has dependent variables. Bet whatever you want on the roulette wheel, you are no more likely to hit a particular number than any other number.
"If the maximum loss is 255 units then you can bet up to 8 times. The probability of losing eight bets in a row (if betting red) is (19/37)8=.004835. So, you have 99.52% of winning one unit, and 0.48% of losing 255 units."
Quote: Alien8edRight. I do understand how the gamblers fallacy works, but the wizard himself has stated (in his FAQ) that the probability of rolling 8 blacks in a row is only about .5% where as the probability for rolling 1 black is 48% so it does seem that the math supports the idea that rolling the same thing multiple times (multiple blacks, multiple 1st 12's, etc.) decreases with each spin. I'll post his comment from the FAQ below.
"If the maximum loss is 255 units then you can bet up to 8 times. The probability of losing eight bets in a row (if betting red) is (19/37)8=.004835. So, you have 99.52% of winning one unit, and 0.48% of losing 255 units."
Sure, but that's only true before the first spin. You might think about it as though the odds only apply to future events. So, if you want to have 8 blacks in a row but you just rolled one, then the odds of ending up with 8 in a row are now (19/37)^7. If the second spin is also black, then the odds of winding up with 8 in a row are now (19/37)^6...if you've seen 7 in a row, the odds of ending with 8 (or more) in a row are now (19/37)^1.
Is this change in the probability of a 12 a conspiracy on the part of the ball and wheel to maintain a natural order of the universe and avoid a repeat number? Haven't you seen those photos of annunciators that show repeat after repeat and stunned players all wondering why the ball and wheel are misbehaving?Quote: Alien8edsince the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.
I would just love to have your next roulette experience be four 12s in a row. Unfortunately, no matter how politely I ask the wheel and ball to do this to you, they seem to be deaf to my pleas.
Quote: Alien8edOh yeah I know it misbehaves. I lost $500 on 11 consecutive blacks the other night. It definitely happens. The wizards math still seems to suggest that the probability of rolling 11 blacks in a row is less than the probability of rolling a single black. I'm not advocating this as any sort of system... I'm just curious how the math plays out.
No it doesn't. And, the difference you're looking at isn't slight.
If you haven't yet rolled, the odds of getting 11 blacks in a row are (18/37)^11=0.000361, or 1 in 2768.
If you're already rolled 10 blacks in a row, the odds of rolling a total of 11 (or more) blacks in a row are (18/37)^1=0.486486, or 1 in 2.0555.
If you just rolled a red, the odds of rolling a black on the next spin are (18/37)^1=0.486486, or 1 in 2.0555.
1 in 2768 is much more that slightly worse than 1 in 2.05555. And 1 in 2.05555 is exactly equal to 1 in 2.05555.
Quote: Alien8edIf I were to place a bet on 1-12 and 13 -24 and the wheel spun a 14, would it be beneficial to place my next bet on 1-12 and 25 - 36 since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.
Where do you get that "the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly"?
The probability of two consecutive spins both landing in the second 12 is 36/361 (on a double-zero wheel).
However, the probability of two consecutive spins landing in the second 12 followed by the first 12 is also 36/361, and the probability of two consecutive spins landing in the second 12 followed by the third 12 is, you guessed it, 36/361. This is the part that people seem to forget.
Quote: Alien8edRight. I do understand how the gamblers fallacy works, but the wizard himself has stated (in his FAQ) that the probability of rolling 8 blacks in a row is only about .5% where as the probability for rolling 1 black is 48% so it does seem that the math supports the idea that rolling the same thing multiple times (multiple blacks, multiple 1st 12's, etc.) decreases with each spin.
Of course the probability of rolling 8 blacks is lower than rolling 1 black. Whenever you rolled 8 blacks you also rolled 1 black, but not vice-versa. Hence you roll less 8 blacks than 1 blacks. This is of course trivial.
The thing you need to study is termed "conditional probability". For roulette, the probability that you roll 8 blacks, under the condition that you have already rolled 7 blacks, is 48% - exactly the same as a single black. The reason for that conditional probability to behave that simple is also clear: at the instant the croupier takes out the ball and spins the roulette wheel, the ball and the wheel are physically in the same states no matter where it had landed before. Since our world does follow physical laws, we expect same probabilities for next spins. (If the physical state were different for the ball or the wheel, we would name the difference "memory").
Anyway, conditional probability is quite useful: The probabiltiy that you wake up at 5am is very different from the probability that you wake up at 5am, under the condition that your alarm-clock was set to 5am. That's exactly why we use alarm clocks in the first place :)
Quote: Alien8edThe probability that I'll wake up at 5am, even with an alarm clock, is approximately 0 ;)
LOL! me, too. I wake up at 7 and think "THAT'S why the last 2 hours of that dream included a buzzer!"
Quote: rdw4potusLOL! me, too. I wake up at 7 and think "THAT'S why the last 2 hours of that dream included a buzzer!"
Same as when you watch too much NCAA what with all the "buzzer beaters" :)
here is how the math plays out for 11 in a rowQuote: Alien8edOh yeah I know it misbehaves. I lost $500 on 11 consecutive blacks the other night. It definitely happens. The wizards math still seems to suggest that the probability of rolling 11 blacks in a row is less than the probability of rolling a single black. I'm not advocating this as any sort of system... I'm just curious how the math plays out.
there is a 1 in 3,712.12 chance that the very next 11 spins will all be Black
IF the first spin is Black (given Black is the first spin)
we have 1 in a row and to complete 11 in a row we now only need another 10 in a row.
and that is much easier than the next 11 being all Black only 1 in 1,758.37
say you have seen 5 Blacks in a row, you only need the next 6 spins to be Black to see your 11 in a row and that is even easier at that spin at 1 in 88.53
it is getting easier to see 11 Blacks in a row if we have already seen a few Blacks in a row.
here is one look in a table. each cell is the probability of a Black spin
| Blacks needed/spin | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | prob | 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 0.000269388 | 3,712.12 |
| 10 | 1 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 0.000568708 | 1,758.37 |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 0.001200605 | 832.91 |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 18/38 | 0.002534611 | 394.54 |
| Black in a row needed | prob | 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.000269388 | 3,712.12 |
| 10 | 0.000568708 | 1,758.37 |
| 9 | 0.001200605 | 832.91 |
| 8 | 0.002534611 | 394.54 |
| 7 | 0.005350845 | 186.89 |
| 6 | 0.011296228 | 88.53 |
| 5 | 0.023847593 | 41.93 |
| 4 | 0.050344918 | 19.86 |
| 3 | 0.106283715 | 9.41 |
| 2 | 0.224376731 | 4.46 |
| 1 | 0.473684211 | 2.11 |
Now you did not say how many spins you saw before 11 Blacks in a row happened.
an easier way to see 11 Blacks in a row is to have more spins
this table shows how much easier it is over 12 to 22 spins total where 11 in a row could happen
| spins | prob | 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.000411171 | 2,432.08 |
| 13 | 0.000552954 | 1,808.47 |
| 14 | 0.000694737 | 1,439.39 |
| 15 | 0.00083652 | 1,195.43 |
| 16 | 0.000978303 | 1,022.18 |
| 17 | 0.001120086 | 892.79 |
| 18 | 0.001261869 | 792.48 |
| 19 | 0.001403652 | 712.43 |
| 20 | 0.001545436 | 647.07 |
| 21 | 0.001687219 | 592.69 |
| 22 | 0.001829002 | 546.75 |
about a 1 in 547 chance that in the very next 22 spins we get a run of 11 Blacks
way easier than 1 in 3,712.12 for the very next 11 spins
the trend was not your friend
Sally
Quote: rdw4potusThe wheel doesn't remember that it just landed on 14. Each dozen is equally likely to hit on each spin. So there's no need to move your bet from one spin to the next.
Just not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.
Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.
Quote: EvenBobJust not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.
Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.
If this was a new person, this might inspire 30 pages of debate.
Quote: Lemieux66If this was a new person, this might inspire 30 pages of debate.
Play the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.
Quote: EvenBobPlay the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.
Are you actually seriously claiming that baccarat is completely random and that magic affects the roulette wheel? What if the same fairies that cause the second dozen to sleep also force Player to run and hide?
Quote: EvenBobPlay the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.
That's a pattern you've seen with your own eyes. It's not an overall actual pattern of roulette as a whole.
probability doesn't effect roulette, that's your
problem.
Quote: EvenBobJust not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon.
I know it's only March, but the 2014 WoV Post of the Year race is now over IMO
Quote: Lemieux66That's a pattern you've seen with your own eyes. It's not an overall actual pattern of roulette as a whole.
A dozen hitting 15 out of 18 times is not
a pattern, it's a fact. The other two
dozens sleeping during this is also a
fact. I actually play this game in a real
casino, when you get a few thousand
sessions under your belt, we'll talk.
Wising up the gallery, I never learn..
Quote: EvenBobA dozen hitting 15 out of 18 times is not
a pattern, it's a fact. The other two
dozens sleeping during this is also a
fact. I actually play this game in a real
casino, when you get a few thousand
sessions under your belt, we'll talk.
Wising up the gallery, I never learn..
How does the wheel know that that a certain dozen has been hitting a lot or not a lot recently?
And why would anyone wanna have ONE session of roulette under their belt, let alone 1000?
Quote: EvenBobWhere did I mention bac. If you want to think
probability doesn't effect roulette, that's your
problem.
Quote: EvenBobThe shoe doesn't unfold like
a flower, what rubbish. It unfolds like what it
is, a series of unconnected random events. There
is no deep mathematical meaning, there is no
meaning at all. That's rather the point of it....
...You work and work and get nowhere.
Bac players follow trends and what they perceive
to be patterns, that's it, that's all....
Quote: EvenBob...As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.
Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.
So, the shoe could give a damn about whether the next hand is player or banker or tie, but the wheel is very concerned about what numbers it spits out? That's actually pretty close to exactly what you've said in these two quoted posts...
Quote: rdw4potusSo, the shoe could give a damn about whether the next hand is player or banker or tie, but the wheel is very concerned about what numbers it spits out? That's actually pretty close to exactly what you've said in these two quoted posts...
Don't forget, Bobs got a friend whose never had a losing session in roulette. He had a close call recently , but thank God black had hit 16 times in a row so obviously red was a lock. He hit that for a max bet and walked away a winner. Updated session record: 5831-0
Quote: EvenBobPlay the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.
I just don't know what to think of EvenBob. He's smart, entertaining, interesting and every once in a while, funny. But, his gambling posts center around 'chumps', wising up chumps' and 'I'm not wising up chumps anymore'. The above post would be red meat for him had he not posted it……… is he just being sarcastic? EvenBob?
Quote: EvenBobJust not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.
Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.
Totally agree with EvenBob. Have I taken the bait?
Quote: treetopbuddyI just don't know what to think of EvenBob.
I had the same reaction when I was new here. He seemed to be trolling, but then I realized he was serious.
In his early days here on the forum, he had identical views about baccarat, which I summarized here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/15068-new-player-with-vegas-story-and-dont-pass-questions/6/#post269196
Obviously his views have evolved, but probably only because he ran bad at baccarat and concluded that those ideas must be wrong. The OP here references a similar philosophy:
Quote: Alien8edBetting systems are bunk... I know this from experience.
He acknowledges the truth, but only because of his actual results. People don't accept math at face value. They have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.
Quote: treetopbuddyTotally agree with EvenBob. Have I taken the bait?
No comment, LOL.
Quote: Alien8edI just wanted to understand why.
I'm not the best at explaining this stuff, but the problem is that the losing amounts will tend to exceed your accumulated winnings.
The key concept IMO is that a series of negative numbers will always total to a negative number. Therefore, if you play a game in which every bet is negative-expectation (due to the house advantage), then your overall expectation is always negative. To gain a mathematical edge, you must place bets that are positive-expectation (such as in blackjack when the remaining cards are sufficiently rich in aces and tens).
The Wizard of Odds companion site is very much worth a look if you haven't already done that.
