Lose in style with the FatWings system.

"you can't lose if you don't play"

Max loss: $237 (approx.)
Suggested starting bankroll: $250
Odds of losing all bets in a row: 1:?

what is the deal with bet#5? Bet 12 but you show 60
it does not match the bets on the layout.

and bet#4 is only 8? a win is only 8
your loss to that point is only 9 losing 3 bets in a row
so I win but I still lose. Huh?

is there a text version of this?
and your odds of losing look way too high.
you show me yours and I show you mine

now dinner and dancing
Sally

OK, I will bite...how does this help you beat the House Advantage over time and why are you giving this away if it is such a sure thing. I would hate to see Roulette tables be taken out of casinos because everyone is beating them with your system.

Quote: mustangsally

what is the deal with bet#5? Bet 12 but you show 60
it does not match the bets on the layout.

and bet#4 is only 8? a win is only 8
your loss to that point is only 9 losing 3 bets in a row
so I win but I still lose. Huh?

is there a text version of this?
and your odds of losing look way too high.
you show me yours and I show you mine

now dinner and dancing
Sally

Sally your posts are the best. I enjoy reading all of them, Its like you troll them but are serious and correct. The previous comment was not meant to be an insult....

Quote: Boz

OK, I will bite...how does this help you beat the House Advantage over time and why are you giving this away if it is such a sure thing. I would hate to see Roulette tables be taken out of casinos because everyone is beating them with your system.

He did say "lose in style"...

To clear up a couple things:
#1
This is a balanced martingale system, which means it reduces your loses but does not eliminate them completely in exchange for better odds of not having the final bet fail. For this reason the suggested starting bankroll has a buffer of 13 units over the max loss.

#2
Bet #5 says "bet 12 units on 5 of the 6 6ths". You are betting 2 units on 30 of the 36 numbers on the wheel. This gives you a 5 out of 6 chance of winning this bet. Side note: betting 24 on a 3rd is same as betting 2 on each of the numbers in that 3rd but the payout is 72 instead of 70.

#3
"your odds of losing look way too high."
bet 1: 1:2 x 1 = 1:2
bet 2: 1:3 x 2 = 1:6
bet 3: 1:3 x 6 = 1:18
bet 4: 1:2 x 18 = 1:36
bet 5: 1:6 x 36 = 1:216
bet 6: 1:3 x 216 = 1:648

#4
"how does this help you beat the House Advantage over time"
I have a bridge to sell you, PM me for info.

Quote: roibread

To clear up a couple things:
#1
This is a balanced martingale system, which means it reduces your loses but does not eliminate them completely in exchange for better odds of not having the final bet fail. For this reason the suggested starting bankroll has a buffer of 13 units over the max loss.

#2
Bet #5 says "bet 12 units on 5 of the 6 6ths". You are betting 2 units on 30 of the 36 numbers on the wheel. This gives you a 5 out of 6 chance of winning this bet. Side note: betting 24 on a 3rd is same as betting 2 on each of the numbers in that 3rd but the payout is 72 instead of 70.

#3
"your odds of losing look way too high."
bet 1: 1:2 x 1 = 1:2
bet 2: 1:3 x 2 = 1:6
bet 3: 1:3 x 6 = 1:18
bet 4: 1:2 x 18 = 1:36
bet 5: 1:6 x 36 = 1:216
bet 6: 1:3 x 216 = 1:648

#4
"how does this help you beat the House Advantage over time"
I have a bridge to sell you, PM me for info.

in your op you listed a $237 exposure but in your illustrations you are talking units. Where are you playing a $1 table?

This system makes no sense. If you win your 4th bet you are down 1 unit. At least with a martingale you are up 1 unit.

Quote: GWAE

in your op you listed a $237 exposure but in your illustrations you are talking units. Where are you playing a $1 table?

$1 or 1 unit means same thing here.

Quote: GWAE

This system makes no sense. If you win your 4th bet you are down 1 unit. At least with a martingale you are up 1 unit.

You either didn't read or don't understand my last post.

I posted this system because I had no problem grinding out 25 units with no heat on the final bet. If the systems to complex for you to understand, don't try it.

If you use a system that never loses, on this size bankroll, your odds of going bust are 1:256 instead of 1:648.

This is what it would look like:

1 1:2
2 1:4
4 1:8
8 1:16
16 1:32
32 1:64
64 1:128
128 1:256

total loss: 255 which is about the same as this system.

Quote: roibread

$1 or 1 unit means same thing here.


You either didn't read or don't understand my last post.

I posted this system because I had no problem grinding out 25 units with no heat on the final bet. If the systems to complex for you to understand, don't try it.

boy I am glad this forum has a block thread button.

good bye

I have analyzed this system, and belief with it a person is capable of losing in any casino on the planet Earth.

Quote: GWAE

boy I am glad this forum has a block thread button.

good bye

Forgive me father, I regret to have caused you much anger. As a self-inflicted punishment, I will not put cinnamon on tomorrow mornings oatmeal.

Quote: mustangsally

what is the deal with bet#5? Bet 12 but you show 60
it does not match the bets on the layout.

Yes, it does - he is betting 12 on each of five groups of six numbers (what he calls "sixths"), just as bet 2 is "1 on 2 of the 3 thirds" (it's 1 on each of 2 of the thirds).

Quote: mustangsally

and bet#4 is only 8? a win is only 8
your loss to that point is only 9 losing 3 bets in a row
so I win but I still lose. Huh?

Also, bets #2 and #3 both have him breaking even if it wins, and bet #5 has him -5.

I think he is forgetting to take the amount bet into account when he calculates what a winning spin is worth.
(For example, he might be thinking, "If the first bet loses, I am -1, but if the second one wins, the losing third is -1 but the winning third is +3, so I am +1," which is incorrect as you only gain 2 from the winning third.)
Then again, he knows to bet 80 twice on his sixth spin.

Crunching the numbers (notice he is using a single-zero wheel):
Win on the first spin: 18/37 x (+1) = 18 / 37
Win on the second spin: 19/37 x 24/37 x (-1 +1) = 0
Win on the third spin: 19/37 x 13/37 x 24/37 x (-1 -2 +3) = 0
Win on the fourth spin: 19/37 x 13/37 x 13/37 x 18/37 x (-1 -2 -6 +8) = -57798 / 37⁴
Win on the fifth spin: 19/37 x 13/37 x 13/37 x 19/37 x 30/37 x (-1 -2 -6 -8 +12) = -9151350 / 37⁵
Win on the sixth spin: 19/37 x 13/37 x 13/37 x 19/37 x 7/37 x 24/37 x (-1 -2 -6 -8 -60 +80) = 30748536 / 37⁶
Lose all six spins: 19/37 x 13/37 x 13/37 x 19/37 x 7/37 x 13/37 x (-1 -2 -6 -8 -60 -160) = -1315781103 / 37⁶

Total = (18 x 37⁵ - 57798 x 37² - 9151350 x 37 + 30748536 - 1315781103) / 37⁶
= -454566753 / 37⁶ = about 0.1771688, which is what you are expected to lose per round (i.e. until you win, or until you have six losses in a row).

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Total = (18 x 37⁵ - 57798 x 37² - 9151350 x 37 + 30748536 - 1315781103) / 37⁶
= -454566753 / 37⁶ = about 0.1771688, which is what you are expected to lose per round (i.e. until you win, or until you have six losses in a row).

yes, I get the same EV as you
showing an average wager of 6.555246811
-0.177168833 / 6.555246811 looks be -1/37 house edge and we figure that
that is good

I see the OP had an older thread where he showed a few failed systems.
Looks like we might have found another
but it might just be very fun to play way too than just flat betting a color or a number or two.
that earns points for many

as to the chance of losing the 6 in a row = product of these values (come from the 1/prob of losing at each step)
1.947368421
2.846153846
2.846153846
1.947368421
5.285714286
2.846153846
1 in 462.1415808
not even close to the claim by the system creator.

the OP needs to show how often he can double his bankroll or at least gain 237 units before failure the first time
because if he fails before doubling, there will be most times not enough (237) to start over.
math guys say "abort the system"

this can be simulated or calculated using a computer program
I would not attempt this by hand, but I did

and with the very low average net win in this system (at least a Marty gains one unit on the first win)
I will say the chances of doubling 237 (or 250) or bust trying would be around 1 in 4.
could not be higher than 3 in 10 but time might tell

thanks for sharing your system!
A for effort and A for fun
Two As are way better than none.

that was fun
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

as to the chance of losing the 6 in a row = product of these values (come from the 1/prob of losing at each step)
1.947368421
2.846153846
2.846153846
1.947368421
5.285714286
2.846153846
1 in 462.1415808
not even close to the claim by the system creator.

Hi Sally, assuming 1:648 is wrong, could you explain what calculation you use to come up with 1:462?

The thing is that THIS like all progressive systems, basically has you chasing your losses. I weigh all decisions as risk vs reward. When you get to the higher levels of any progressive system, like level 6, here, where you are wagering $160, to get back even or in the case of martingale to record a $1 win, that is a VERY bad risk vs reward ratio. In a basically even game, you are wagering $160 to win zero or win $1. Does that really make sense? That's like an odds-on favorite, in horse racing that will pay you $2.01 to win, IF he manages to win. lol It's just a bad wager. (and yes, I know a horse can't pay $2.01)

Quote: roibread

Hi Sally, assuming 1:648 is wrong, could you explain what calculation you use to come up with 1:462?

it is the product (multiply) of the losing probabilities
for each bet
19/37 for first bet * 13/37 for the second bet and so on and divide that last value by 1
here is the table I used
return = win step * net

bet#	lose prob	net	bet	losses	win prob	return	win step	avg bet
1	0.513513514	1	1	1	0.486486486	0.486486486	0.486486486	1
2	0.351351351	0	2	3	0.648648649	0	0.333089847	1.027027027
3	0.351351351	0	6	9	0.648648649	0	0.117031568	1.082542001
4	0.513513514	-1	8	17	0.486486486	-0.0308394	0.0308394	0.507136793
5	0.189189189	-5	60	77	0.810810811	-0.131970404	0.026394081	1.953161975
6	0.351351351	3	160	237	0.648648649	0.011984339	0.00399478	0.985379014
	0.002163839		237	totals	ev win	0.335661023	0.997836161	6.555246811
	462.1415808				ev loss	-0.512829855
					ev	-0.177168833
					edge	-0.027027027

this system can not be called a Marty I think because a Marty is designed to at least have a net win of 1 unit after the first win
this system only has a net win on bet#1 or bet#6.
It can still double a bankroll at between 1 in 5 or 1 in 4 tries not the
3 in 10 to about 4 in 10 as just one color (or one even money bet) could do with just a regular 6 bet Marty

but anyone can disagree with this if they would like
Marty does not care one way or the other

If you play this system in Roulette Xtreme for example (every Roulette system player should have this program to test with)
it is fun to play as your bankroll does not really move up too fast or down too fast
but just when you think you can keep on winning
a loss of 6 in a row
I guess I selected the wrong bets to make. I followed the photo
Sally

I also had time to add this system into a program to see the prob of success of turning 250 units into 487 (250+237)
here is the chart
one can see at 22% the chance of success as calculated earlier and we see that extends up to 32% by 3000 rounds
that is because after a first loss there is still some bankroll left to start over and most times less than what was started with.
Now this could be increased if one bet everything just to get back to 250 or 237 but that can be left to another if they really want to program this out
10 Rounds = about 17.8 spins

Quote: roibread

To clear up a couple things:
#2
Bet #5 says "bet 12 units on 5 of the 6 6ths". You are betting 2 units on 30 of the 36 numbers on the wheel. This gives you a 5 out of 6 chance of winning this bet.

it is only a 30/37 chance of winning the bet not a 30/36 chance

Quote: roibread

Side note: betting 24 on a 3rd is same as betting 2 on each of the numbers in that 3rd but the payout is 72 instead of 70.

the payout is not 72
the return is 72
the payout is 35*2=70
on that one spin (a winning spin) you have bets that lost
10+24+24=58 for a net gain of 12 units

your cumulative loss to that spin was 17 (1,2,6,8)
a net win of 12 + -17 = -5 net gain to bankroll

now recalculate
Sally