Gandler
Gandler
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February 1st, 2014 at 2:48:27 PM permalink
I don't understand why so many people are convinced that baccarat has a system that can beat it? It is little more than a coin toss (with one side of the coin very slightly heavier than the other). But the more I play it at casinos there are endless amounts of people raving on and on about their system and telling others they are stupid for not taking their advice (and occasionally they get lucky and win a lot and then get even more certain that they have a "wining system").

And Youtube has endless amounts of videos about Baccarat systems (just searching "Baccarat" on youtube brings up 80% systems-sellings videos and very few videos with any actual information...). Why does this game have so many people thinking that there are systems that can possibly beat it? Much more so than roulette and craps and blackjack people seem to be convinced that baccarat has a beatable system even though it is much simpler than all of the above games?

I just don't understand why this game of all games attracts so many people that are so hooked on their systems, I see a lot of stupid stuff on other games as well, but nearly as much or as frequently as I see among baccarat players? Baccarat is almost no fun to play in live casinos because of all the people trying to tell you how to play and getting mad when you don't listen to them....

I am not sure why I just posted this to be honest, I guess just a rant, but I am just baffled by how many people are so religiously obsessed with their systems on baccarat of all games.... ?
Beethoven9th
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February 1st, 2014 at 2:54:21 PM permalink
Aren't you the guy who thought that the Martingale was a great system? lol
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Gandler
Gandler
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February 1st, 2014 at 3:02:15 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Aren't you the guy who thought that the Martingale was a great system? lol


I though using a partner martingale may be less harmful martingale. It turned out I was wrong (as I assumed I was). I am pretty sure I even started that post with "this is probably a horrifically stupid idea but..." or something along those lines lol. But I was asking that more of out of mathematical interest than intentions to actually risk using it.
(I only ever used the Martingale once, when I was very new to gambling and casinos and just old enough to go I was looking at the roulette wheel and thought about doubling on red after every loss and thought I was a genius, and I did it and won a quite a bit, but when I looked it up online later I realized that what I did was called the Martingale and realized I got lucky).

But in either case I would never insist to others to play or not play a certain way which is more so what my rant is about.
rob45
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February 1st, 2014 at 3:57:50 PM permalink
Perhaps someone will be along soon to reiterate the merits of his 52-53% "strike rate".
If and when he does comment, you will begin to understand the fact that many who claim success not only often fail to verify the results, but are also usually at a loss when it comes to explaining the results.

Until that time, it is certainly prudent to take into consideration the fact that the game is one of negative expectation, and no betting system will ultimately beat it.
The game offers a choice of two primary bets that are very close in expectation (yet both are still negative overall).
The probabilities for Player and Banker are very close, and the variance is reasonable, leading individuals to believe that a betting system can overcome the house edge.
The game is slow-moving, relatively speaking. For a person to experience the "long run" house advantage, it can take a very long time and many visits if the individual has experienced previous "success" with a given system. Rest assured, the house will prevail; they simply need you to keep coming back and playing the game.

The only way to beat the game is to put the money up only during those times when you have a proven edge over the house.
With that said, you will hear some claim that they do have an edge. Then you get to ask for proof of the stated edge.
Keyser
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:12:33 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

I don't understand why so many people are convinced that baccarat has a system that can beat it?




Actually Baccarat can be beaten. It's possible to get a nice edge.
Gandler
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:23:00 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Actually Baccarat can be beaten. It's possible to get a nice edge.


Are you being serious?
Keyser
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:24:30 PM permalink
Absolutely.
EdgeLooker
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:36:55 PM permalink
I still don't see any updates on Phil Ivey's lawsuit.
djatc
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:42:45 PM permalink
You beat it by earning more comps then your theoretical loss. Now you just got a discount on food, shows, hookers, etc
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Keyser
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:46:18 PM permalink
You can also actually get a sizeable edge and win real money.
DMSCR
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:48:29 PM permalink
Quote: rob45


The game is slow-moving, relatively speaking.



It is slow moving if and when there are other people playing. Definitely agree with you on that it is slow moving. At times very damn slow! All those changing chips, waiting for others, people coming and going, exchanging cash for chips, etc. Once you are able to play by yourself especially in Vegas where you are allowed unlimited free hands, you can knock out a shoe within 20 to 25 minutes.
djatc
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:51:10 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

You can also actually get a sizeable edge and win real money.



besides edge sorting what can you do, and how frequently can this be done? can you provide a mathematical explanation? I'm not being sarcastic I really would like to know since I enjoy the game if I need to run match bets or free bets.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Gandler
Gandler
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:52:42 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

You beat it by earning more comps then your theoretical loss. Now you just got a discount on food, shows, hookers, etc


That is true (for some reason they seem to comp you a lot more for baccarat than for blackjack even if playing lower stakes, maybe its because there is a higher house edge, I dunno).

My "strategy" for baccarat is to play the highest limit table that I can afford, min bet on and flat bet banker to build up comp points and comp dollars, and sometimes I get lucky and banker comes up a bunch of times in a row and then stop. doing this I rarely lose more than one or two hands worth of bets by the end of the session (which I guess approximately correlates with the house edge) and if lucky I get a bit ahead.
Keyser
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:55:11 PM permalink
In short, here's how to get a real sizeable edge at baccarat. Sort play. There's the turn (Phil Ivey), and then there's real sort play, which is a bit different.


It's called "sort play". APs have made millions playing it at bac. In many locations around LV and the US, the cards are not covered by the little brushes when they're setting in the shoe. An astute player, with good vision, can follow the shifting pattern on the back of the cards.

By tracking the shifting of the printed pattern on the back of the cards, the AP player can categorize virtually every card in the shoe- into a few, to possibly as many as several different categories - using a pen and paper, as well as a discrete tracking code.

After cataloging the back of each card and it's value, the player calculates the edge for either the player bet or the banker bet for each of the patterns sorted.

Once the necessary calculations have been made, the AP player can get the edge by looking at the next card in the shoe, in order to determine if the next card out is more likely to benefit the player, the banker, or whether it's likely to be neutral.

Often times, the AP immediately has the edge on the first hand - after having sorted all of the decks. As the AP plays deeper into the shoe, the edge can increase substantially.

And yes, this can be done in BJ as well, but it involves using a plus/minus count and the separation of each card into a symmetrical verses an asymmetrical category.

Sort playing can enable the player to get a very real edge, unlike the utter nonsense that you read about gaming discipline, up as you lose progressions, trends, etc.

Sort play is the reason that MGM and Caesars/Harrah's recently changed to new card patterns. For what it's worth, the new MGM cards are still pretty good for sort play.

I've been loosely attempting to write a book on the subject. Maybe someday I'll actually finish it.



-Keyser
Dicenor33
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February 1st, 2014 at 4:57:54 PM permalink
Usually serious players place large bets when it comes to bac. They know house has a wig, but the game is close. At some point when they are ahead they leave, no need to wait.
SOOPOO
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February 1st, 2014 at 5:11:00 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

In short, here's how to get a real sizeable edge at baccarat. Sort play.
-Keyser



Thanks for a reasonable answer. My question is this.... why haven't casinos put an end to this, either with better made cards or better 'brushes' to not let players see the edges?
anonimuss
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February 1st, 2014 at 5:18:17 PM permalink
A simple step in the shuffling procedure defeats edge sorting. APs look for casinos weak in this area or create the situation.
Impmon
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February 1st, 2014 at 5:42:42 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

I just don't understand why this game of all games attracts so many people that are so hooked on their systems, I see a lot of stupid stuff on other games as well, but nearly as much or as frequently as I see among baccarat players? Baccarat is almost no fun to play in live casinos because of all the people trying to tell you how to play and getting mad when you don't listen to them....

I am not sure why I just posted this to be honest, I guess just a rant, but I am just baffled by how many people are so religiously obsessed with their systems on baccarat of all games.... ?



It's really quite easy to explain. Baccarat is a very streaky game. Almost every shoe produces strings of Player and Banker wins. Also, those cards and special two-color pens are thoughtfully provided. This lends support to system play. It's that age old fallacy of seeking purpose where there is only process.

If you're lucky, you can get the best of this game. Once, the Sahara in LV, NV ran a three day promotion where the commish on bankside wins was suspended, and paid even money. There was a $25 limit on bankside bets, but it was still in your favor. If you're stuck paying that 5%, you can fuggedaboudit: there is no advantage.

Peter Griffin did present a card counting system in The Theory of Blackjack: The Compleat Card Counter's Guide to the Casino Game of 21 that gave a 0.07% edge for Baccarat play. A theoretical edge, but will you live that long to capitalize on it?
DMSCR
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February 1st, 2014 at 5:47:54 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks for a reasonable answer. My question is this.... why haven't casinos put an end to this, either with better made cards or better 'brushes' to not let players see the edges?



Because not too many people have caught up to this yet and casinos are constantly losing money. If does this catch on and casino are constantly being in the red with their baccarat tables you are surely going to see some changes/restrictions to neutralize this edge.
djatc
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February 1st, 2014 at 5:58:56 PM permalink
If its a squeeze game you'll get to track the cards closer and actually hold them.... Interesting.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Gandler
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February 1st, 2014 at 6:00:11 PM permalink
Quote: Impmon

It's really quite easy to explain. Baccarat is a very streaky game. Almost every shoe produces strings of Player and Banker wins. Also, those cards and special two-color pens are thoughtfully provided. This lends support to system play. It's that age old fallacy of seeking purpose where there is only process.

If you're lucky, you can get the best of this game. Once, the Sahara in LV, NV ran a three day promotion where the commish on bankside wins was suspended, and paid even money. There was a $25 limit on bankside bets, but it was still in your favor. If you're stuck paying that 5%, you can fuggedaboudit: there is no advantage.

Peter Griffin did present a card counting system in The Theory of Blackjack: The Compleat Card Counter's Guide to the Casino Game of 21 that gave a 0.07% edge for Baccarat play. A theoretical edge, but will you live that long to capitalize on it?



If there is a place that has no-commission on banker bets (assuming rules are the same) that would be over a 1% advantage right? That seems too good to be true?
If so that is better than bj card counting especially since it requires no thought and hence no chance of mistakes?
Impmon
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February 1st, 2014 at 6:44:38 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

If there is a place that has no-commission on banker bets (assuming rules are the same) that would be over a 1% advantage right? That seems too good to be true?
If so that is better than bj card counting especially since it requires no thought and hence no chance of mistakes?



It was a promotion, and yes, it does give you the best of it, which is why the limit was $25 on bankside bets. The Sahara wasn't completely stupid about it and wouldn't allow their usual table max limit to prevent themselves from being cleaned out. The promo worked: most of the money was being bet on playerside bets. Yes, better than card counting since there was no possibility of error. It was a three day promo that I never saw again. There were some other promos that cut back the bankside commish to make it essentially even money.
soxfan
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February 1st, 2014 at 8:36:13 PM permalink
If the "long run" consists of miliions, or tens of millions of hands then why worry about it, hey hey?
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
djatc
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February 1st, 2014 at 11:04:17 PM permalink
Quote: Impmon

It was a promotion, and yes, it does give you the best of it, which is why the limit was $25 on bankside bets. The Sahara wasn't completely stupid about it and wouldn't allow their usual table max limit to prevent themselves from being cleaned out. The promo worked: most of the money was being bet on playerside bets. Yes, better than card counting since there was no possibility of error. It was a three day promo that I never saw again. There were some other promos that cut back the bankside commish to make it essentially even money.



It'll actually be a great idea just like Dumpy Dumpy (Circus Circus) and their 2:1 BJ red light special. Maybe play a song in Chinese and while it's on banker pays no commission. Set it on a random timer throughout the day so people can't camp out bac tables, and set a $100 limit perhaps. If the board is player heavy then people who bet in streaks won't bet banker anyway. Maybe also make it so you must play a tie/dragon bonus if you take no commission.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Keyser
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February 1st, 2014 at 11:08:55 PM permalink
Just for the record, "sort play" is NOT the same thing as counting bac. Sort play can actually provide the player with a rather high edge. Counting does not.
Walkinshaw30t
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February 19th, 2014 at 5:42:19 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Just for the record, "sort play" is NOT the same thing as counting bac. Sort play can actually provide the player with a rather high edge. Counting does not.




If I am understanding correctly, each value card has a different pattern on the back of card so if you know that the next card to come out is n 8 or 9 you have an advantage by betting on that side? Is that correct? Or am I misunderstanding?
Time will tell
hoangle1979
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September 11th, 2016 at 11:24:51 PM permalink
I agree with you that there are no system that can beat a negative expectation game. Anyway, I take a look at the cancellation system and keep wondering ... what about using it in a bet like the banker in baccarat, where you have a POSITIVE expectation outcome? In which extension would the commission payed to the house erode your gains in the long run? I apologize for my shady English.
CyrusV
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September 12th, 2016 at 6:46:23 AM permalink
Quote: Gandler

I don't understand why so many people are convinced that baccarat has a system that can beat it? It is little more than a coin toss (with one side of the coin very slightly heavier than the other).

I just don't understand why this game of all games attracts so many people that are so hooked on their systems, I see a lot of stupid stuff on other games as well, but nearly as much or as frequently as I see among baccarat players? Baccarat is almost no fun to play in live casinos because of all the people trying to tell you how to play and getting mad when you don't listen to them....

I am not sure why I just posted this to be honest, I guess just a rant, but I am just baffled by how many people are so religiously obsessed with their systems on baccarat of all games.... ?


Scams, systems all are equal, nothing is better or worst than anything else. Yes it is no more than a coin toss, it means you can apply coin toss statistics.

I haven't encountered people telling how and where to bet and would would logically wipe the floor with anybody that tried. It's a great game to play, lowest HE in the house next to playing every hand perfectly on the 21 tables.

Baccarat generates lots of debate because mathematically everybody's system / belief are equal, unfortunately they are neither wrong or right.
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