Feedback on a Roulette System

So, first of all, I know you cannot beat the casino. There is no system that will win 100%, however I believe you can increase your chances at coming off on top with a smart system, so long as you understand when you've lost, and when to quit, etc.

My system essentially depends on increasing your bet to cover your losses, betting on the same number until it appears. I know this system is flawed, as it's quite common for numbers not to show up for 300+ spins, but if you're aiming to come off roulette well, I figure this is the best method. System is as follows:

Choose a number, I generally start with Black11:
30 Spins at 50p (£15 total spent)
20 Spins at £1 (£35 total spent, 50 spins)
10 Spins at £1.50 (£50 total spent, 60 spins)
10 Spins at £2 (£70 total spent, 70 spins)
10 Spins at £3 (£100 total spent, 80 spins)
10 Spins at £4 (£140 total spent, 90 spins)
7 Spins at £5 (£175 total spent, 97 spins)
6 Spins at £6 (£211 total spent, 103 spins)
5 Spins at £7 (£246 total spent, 108 spins)
5 Spins at £8 (£286 total spent, 113 spins)
4 Spins at £9 (£322 total spent, 117 spins)
3 Spins at £10 (£352 total spent, 120 spins)
4 Spins at £11 (£396 total spent, 124 spins)
2 Spins at £12 (£420 total spent, 126 spins)
2 Spins at £12.50 (£445 total spent, 128 spins)
1 Spin at £13 (£458 total spent, 129 spins)
1 Spin at £13.50 (471.50 spent, 130 spins)
1 Spin at £14 (£485.50 spent, 131 spins)
1 Spin at £14.50 (£500 total spent, 132 spins)

I have this continuing on up untl £1000, and whenevr I hit that point, I just add on £1 ever bet until I'm betting over £36, then add £2 each bet until over £72, then add on £3 each bet until over £108, etc. So far, I've never went over £4,500, which is an unacceptable amount for me to have risked, but the entire system is based on betting until you win. In theory, it will work until you hit the betting limit, on the game I play (paddypower European Premium), it's £500 per bet, so £15,000.

Am I correct in saying that the chances of a number not appearing by the 130 spin point is "(37/38)^130 = 0.031", or just around 3%?

And, based on the sorts of things you guys normally follow when you bet seriously, how would you rate this system?

You're better be using sex panther cologne, because it works sixty percent of the time, every time.

Some kind of marty?

what if i don't have access to british pounds?

can i try this with american dollars, or is there a conversion required?

PLEASE ADVISE as I am heading to the casino soon!

This system only works if you're betting on 31 or 33

Quote: bgambler

Am I correct in saying that the chances of a number not appearing by the 130 spin point is "(37/38)^130 = 0.031", or just around 3%?

Your math is right. Now please think about it. 3% is not that small of a chance to lose it all. And if you win at, say, spin 100, how far ahead are you?

Quote: bgambler

And, based on the sorts of things you guys normally follow when you bet seriously, how would you rate this system?

It sucks as much as any other "system".

Quote: bgambler

And, based on the sorts of things you guys normally follow when you bet seriously, how would you rate this system?

After careful consideration, I give this system a rating of "V".

True, 3% is quite high, but that's only for the first 130 spins, I havn't taken the time to count how many spins it takes to reach the £4,500 I was at, but I estimate it to have been at least 175, dropping it to 1% - still quite high I guess.

But, surely following this set is a much safer option than just dropping large amounts of random numbers, or at worst, the Martingale?

I do get that systems are silly. They create a false sense of safety, and in all honesty, the profit per 'run' of my system is generally only £20, and so when that's risking thousands for, it doesn't seem worth it, which is why I havn't tried to employ this as some sort of career. But, when I do indulge in roulette every month or so, I like to follow this simply because I think it's raising my chances of walking away with a bit of extra cash. In the past 6-10 months or so, I've never lost and am 2.5grand up. But, as stated, a single loss would wipe all of that out and more.

Send me 1,00 pounds, I will mail you back 1 pound every week. This will save you time driving to casino, palying, cashing out, etc.

I can provide references !

Quote: Buzzard

Send me 1,00 pounds, I will mail you back 1 pound every week. This will save you time driving to casino, palying, cashing out, etc.

I can provide references !

I'm not sending you any money unless you give me your super bowl picks.

Quote: bgambler

True, 3% is quite high, but that's only for the first 130 spins, I havn't taken the time to count how many spins it takes to reach the £4,500 I was at, but I estimate it to have been at least 175, dropping it to 1% - still quite high I guess.

But, surely following this set is a much safer option than just dropping large amounts of random numbers, or at worst, the Martingale?

I do get that systems are silly. They create a false sense of safety, and in all honesty, the profit per 'run' of my system is generally only £20, and so when that's risking thousands for, it doesn't seem worth it, which is why I havn't tried to employ this as some sort of career. But, when I do indulge in roulette every month or so, I like to follow this simply because I think it's raising my chances of walking away with a bit of extra cash. In the past 6-10 months or so, I've never lost and am 2.5grand up. But, as stated, a single loss would wipe all of that out and more.

You seem to know exactly how the math works.

If you are happy winning small amounts of money most of the time, and eventually getting wiped out all in one fell swoop, there's nothing wrong with that. Your system is good. But you really have to be ok with getting wiped out in a single loss. Remember that it's not a question of "if"; it's a question of "when".

If you prefer to lose your money a little bit at a time, just flat-bet.

If you prefer to lose most of the time, but win big when you do win, go with a positive progression instead of a negative one.

In the end you are paying for entertainment, and you get to choose how the payments are made! Choose the way that is most fun for you. Note, however, the the system that puts the least money in play will lose the least over the long term, and that "system" is flat-betting. Any progression (positive or negative) will increase the total amount that you bet, which will increase your long-term losses. As long as you take this into account, you should be fine (in other words, when playing a progression, your minimum bet should be lower than the amount that you would bet if you were flat-betting)

That is a very fair point. I guess, being as 'up' as I am now, I should really quit while I'm ahead, I've already experienced the horror of hitting multiple thousands down before winning haha. Maybe switching to flat betting will be a little less risky, less stressful, and more fun overall!

Quote: bgambler

But, surely following this set is a much safer option than just dropping large amounts of random numbers, or at worst, the Martingale?

Your system IS a Martingale.

But will a Martingale work on Poker For Roulette ? That is the real question !