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Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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October 30th, 2013 at 7:10:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

True. However, old habits from the punch card days are hard to break.

Here is another 25,000 shoes. Just 4.06 MB. I checked if it was too big for Excel, but it loaded it took only a second to load it.

For those with a slow Internet connection, here are the first 10 shoes:

1,P,B,P,B,B,P,P,P,P,P,P,B,B,P,B,P,P,P,P,P,B,B,P,B,P,P,P,T,B,T,B,T,B,B,P,P,P,P,B,P,B,P,P,P,P,B,B,P,B,B,P,P,P,P,P,P,B,T,B,P,B,P,T,P,P,P,P,B,P,P,P,B,B,B,B,P,T,P,P,B,B,P,B
2,B,P,B,B,P,B,P,P,P,P,B,T,B,P,B,B,B,P,B,P,P,B,B,P,B,B,P,P,B,P,P,T,P,P,B,P,P,P,P,B,P,B,P,B,P,P,B,B,B,B,P,B,P,B,B,P,P,B,P,B,B,P,B,B,P,B,P,B,P,B,P,B,P,B,P,P,B,B,T,P,B,B
3,B,T,B,P,P,B,P,P,P,P,P,P,B,T,P,P,T,B,B,P,P,P,P,B,P,P,P,P,P,P,B,B,P,B,P,P,T,B,P,P,B,B,B,P,B,P,T,P,B,B,B,P,B,P,P,P,P,B,T,P,P,P,T,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,T,B,P,P,B,B,T,P,B,B,P,B
4,P,B,B,B,P,P,B,B,P,B,B,P,B,P,B,P,P,P,B,B,P,P,B,T,B,P,P,T,B,B,P,B,P,T,B,B,B,B,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,P,B,B,P,T,B,T,P,P,P,P,P,P,T,B,P,P,B,T,P,B,B,B,B,P,B,P,P,P,P,B,P,P,P,P
5,P,P,P,P,P,P,T,P,T,B,B,P,B,B,B,B,B,P,P,B,P,B,B,P,P,P,P,B,T,P,T,B,P,B,P,B,B,T,B,P,B,B,P,P,B,T,P,B,P,B,T,B,B,B,B,P,P,B,P,P,P,P,T,B,P,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,B,T,P,P,B,P,P,B,B,B,P
6,P,P,B,P,T,B,B,P,B,P,P,B,T,P,B,B,B,T,B,B,P,B,B,P,T,B,P,B,P,B,T,B,P,B,B,B,P,B,P,P,P,P,B,B,T,P,B,P,T,B,P,B,P,B,B,P,B,B,P,B,B,P,P,P,P,B,B,B,B,B,P,B,B,B,B,B,P,P,P,B
7,P,B,P,B,T,B,B,B,B,T,P,P,P,P,B,B,T,B,B,P,T,P,B,B,T,B,P,T,P,B,B,B,B,B,P,P,P,B,B,P,P,P,P,B,B,P,B,P,P,T,P,P,B,P,P,B,P,P,B,B,T,B,T,P,P,P,T,B,B,B,P,P,P,B,P,B,B,B,B,P,T,B,T,P,B,P,B,B
8,B,B,P,B,B,B,B,P,P,B,T,P,B,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,P,T,B,P,P,B,B,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,P,B,B,P,P,T,B,T,P,P,B,B,B,P,T,B,B,P,P,P,P,P,P,B,B,P,P,P,B,T,P,P,B,B,B,B,P,P,B,P,B,B,T
9,P,P,P,B,B,B,B,B,B,P,P,P,T,P,P,B,B,B,B,B,B,P,B,P,P,B,P,B,P,B,B,B,B,B,B,B,T,B,P,B,P,B,P,P,B,B,T,P,B,B,B,P,P,P,B,B,B,T,B,B,B,B,P,B,P,B,B,P,P,B,P,P,B,B,B,P,T,P,B,B,P
10,T,P,P,T,B,P,B,B,P,B,P,P,B,T,P,B,P,T,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,B,P,P,P,B,P,B,B,P,T,P,P,B,B,P,B,P,B,B,B,P,P,B,B,B,B,B,P,P,P,B,B,P,B,P,T,T,T,T,P,P,B,B,P,P,B,B,P,P,P,P,B,P,P



Wizard's got shoes!!!

DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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October 30th, 2013 at 7:15:02 AM permalink
So now somebody will take these results and see if our Canadian friend system works, no?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
ewjones080
ewjones080
Joined: Feb 22, 2012
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October 30th, 2013 at 7:22:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I have 1,000 shoes here.

I'll post more for a donation to the Three Square Food Bank. $50 for every 1,000 shoes.



I tend to think the percentage of the English-speaking population who can Write code is less than 1 in 100. Somehow I think the odds in this case are even less.



I would say more like 1 in 1000
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 30th, 2013 at 8:54:59 AM permalink
Quote: gpl2112

so far I have found only 3000 shoes with which to test this and did generate enough profit to make it more than worth while .



Okay, I hope you're happy. I just created 250,000 shoes for you. Let's see if your system can survive that.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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October 30th, 2013 at 8:59:55 AM permalink
removed
silly
I Heart Vi Hart
thecesspit
thecesspit
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:41:45 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Perfect format.

Too bad we don't see streaks like those with real cards.

Maybe in Canada.



What makes you say that you don't see streaks like that with real cards? What do you think is different in the way these shoes are generated and real casino shoes?

Do you think you could tell them apart?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
mustangsally
mustangsally
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October 30th, 2013 at 10:55:34 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

What makes you say that you don't see streaks like that with real cards? What do you think is different in the way these shoes are generated and real casino shoes?

Do you think you could tell them apart?

Telling them apart may not even matter.
What matters is a computer shuffle or sort makes it very possible that every permutation
has the same chance of being used.
In an 8 deck shoe that would be only 416!
possible equal shoes.
416! contains 911 digits
38, 463, 133, 877, 199, 574, 902, 843, 538, 980, 106, 435, 601, 992, 165, 963, 595, 262, 280, 224, 253, 772, 051, 216, 830, 119, 587, 376, 011, 871, 951, 141, 455, 494, 843, 512, 974, 439, 365, 557, 046, 418, 700, 007, 675, 724, 725, 364, 528, 374, 097, 426, 274, 437, 336, 984, 117, 135, 035, 840, 319, 087, 095, 437, 432, 094, 931, 902, 980, 202, 366, 306, 154, 424, 773, 842, 047, 575, 571, 737, 037, 805, 740, 375, 362, 781, 672, 723, 510, 947, 332, 759, 924, 799, 623, 394, 258, 294, 999, 190, 552, 593, 923, 779, 953, 277, 382, 928, 121, 926, 080, 790, 201, 956, 010, 980, 036, 512, 902, 008, 036, 318, 563, 018, 670, 503, 175, 208, 286, 850, 697, 621, 763, 497, 465, 759, 438, 572, 651, 262, 059, 691, 891, 197, 462, 920, 180, 710, 682, 630, 787, 009, 442, 262, 814, 745, 990, 335, 735, 810, 444, 461, 475, 006, 571, 643, 055, 395, 889, 497, 608, 863, 338, 763, 726, 588, 615, 254, 646, 135, 765, 127, 241, 917, 235, 548, 497, 470, 200, 746, 507, 030, 893, 989, 410, 145, 745, 270, 947, 236, 290, 256, 577, 398, 824, 863, 164, 336, 775, 932, 067, 755, 883, 734, 263, 503, 669, 074, 103, 295, 837, 766, 210, 948, 342, 554, 534, 683, 798, 166, 200, 789, 864, 427, 317, 910, 523, 544, 907, 487, 561, 256, 292, 196, 310, 045, 039, 490, 997, 277, 577, 283, 556, 051, 331, 131, 237, 311, 106, 789, 491, 739, 684, 263, 103, 767, 424, 452, 788, 224, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000

well, we also should know many trillions and trillions and many trillions of those shuffles a computer could produce
would never come to pass or even be allowed in a regular casino.
Did it not just recently happen that players won lots of money at
Baccarat playing a shoe that was not shuffled?
even thought it is one of the 416! possible shoes that could be seen?


Look here.
I have a 4 card deck for a casino game I developed.
1,2,3,4
yep, looks nice right out of the box.

4! possible shuffles exist (4*3*2*1)

1 2 3 4
1 2 4 3
1 3 2 4
1 3 4 2
1 4 2 3
1 4 3 2
2 1 3 4
2 1 4 3
2 3 1 4
2 3 4 1
2 4 1 3
2 4 3 1
3 1 2 4
3 1 4 2
3 2 1 4
3 2 4 1
3 4 1 2
3 4 2 1
4 1 2 3
4 1 3 2
4 2 1 3
4 2 3 1
4 3 1 2
4 3 2 1


Many players would cry 'foul' if shuffle 1 or 24 was shown!
The cards were not shuffled!
1,2,3,4 is exactly how the cards came out of the box
and that shuffle has a 1/24 chance of being seen, just like the rest.

They might also squeak about shuffle #2: 1,2,4,3 and #23: 4,3,1,2


But the players still would say
2 4 3 1
is a more random shuffle than
1 2 3 4

The Blackjack program by QFIT allows a user to specify a casino type shuffle.

Sally says give the players what they want
and let them see the differences of both!
I Heart Vi Hart
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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October 30th, 2013 at 11:00:57 AM permalink
MustangSally,

People come and people go, that said, I don't think I have been as elated to see anyone come back after being gone for awhile as I am to see you.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Canyonero
Canyonero
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
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October 30th, 2013 at 11:57:11 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


In an 8 deck shoe that would be only 412!
possible equal shoes.



First, lets take out the equivalent shoes by removing the ones that are only different by suit or face card (zeroes). How many now?



Now here's a fun question: How many different outcomes of Baccarat shoes exist? We are only looking at the sequence of P,B,T now, as posted by the Wizard. Probably easy to do if you can narrow down the possible lengths of a shoe / sequence to just a few numbers.

Another way to look at it: For each outcome of a baccarat shoe, how many shuffles exist that will lead to exactly that outcome?

Are there outcomes that are more likely than others? If so, I can improve my odds by a negligible-but-greater-than-zero amount by betting the most likely sequence.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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October 30th, 2013 at 11:59:52 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

MustangSally,

People come and people go, that said, I don't think I have been as elated to see anyone come back after being gone for awhile as I am to see you.



MustangSally,

I am thrilled to see you check back in! Very much enjoyed your past posts and have been watching for you. We haven't met; I've only been around a few months.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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