one more worthless system
I understand probability and grasp the "gambler's fallacy". The system challenges the "gamblers fallacy".....which means I'm a dope for challenging math. Sue me.
System rules......1) Wait for a player or banker streak of 13 or more.
2) First bet begins after streak has been broken. Example PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPB.......begin betting banker.
3) Use negative betting progression. Martingale, Fibonacci or custom taylor your own progression.
4) Goal one unit win
Now, before everybody goes "math on me" .......lets all agree that all streaks end. Lets also face up to the reality that the longest player/banker run is 22/23? So with those "realities" can we find some merit in the above idea?
Now for practicality. It's my understanding in Macau, 100 games may be going simultaneously. With that many games going, a 13 plus run may show twice an hour. Gold Coast, 30 games going simultaneously a setup may show every 90 minutes. Just guessing here. Going through The Wizards 1000 shoe/8 deck games gives me a feel for streaks as well as my personal casino play. A problem can arise when a table gets hot, so connections my be needed to get bet down as table will be packed.
Go ahead an tell me that past results have no bearing on future results but doesn't the real world tell us that all streaks end and that the longest player/banker run is 23? Can we draw some conclusions from those facts? Yes, I know the 23 run record will be broken as soon as I try this idea.
Should I abandon silly idea and pursue career as a porn slapper?
Quote: stoneynv
System rules......1) Wait for a player or banker streak of 13 or more.
2) First bet begins after streak has been broken. Example PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPB.......begin betting banker.
3) Use negative betting progression. Martingale, Fibonacci or custom taylor your own progression.
4) Goal one unit win
Now, before everybody goes "math on me" .......lets all agree that all streaks end. Lets also face up to the reality that the longest player/banker run is 22/23? So with those "realities" can we find some merit in the above idea?
Yes, all streaks end. But, that doesn't have anything to do with what is going to happen next. This system doesn't have any advantage over randomly betting.
Quote: rdw4potusYes, all streaks end. But, that doesn't have anything to do with what is going to happen next. This system doesn't have any advantage over randomly betting.
The idea makes no claims as to what is going to happen in the next turn of the cards......but challenges a simple reality that a 22/23 runs represent the extremes of the "one off event" or a "Black Swan"
So you have conceded that all streaks end. Can no advantage be gained from that reality?
Quote: Beethoven9thAnother problem you'll come across is that you'll be waiting looooooooooong time just to win that one unit.
Yes, patience is required. You just don't know what a unit represents in my case.:-)
Quote: IbeatyouracesRight. You'll make more money picking up change off the street.
Has that been your experience?
Quote: stoneynvHas that been your experience?
Quote: stoneynvThe idea makes no claims as to what is going to happen in the next turn of the cards......but challenges a simple reality that a 22/23 runs represent the extremes of the "one off event" or a "Black Swan"
So you have conceded that all streaks end. Can no advantage be gained from that reality?
You're using an example where a streak of player results has just ended, and you're betting banker. What the hell do you mean that you're making "no claims as to what is going to happen"? That would appear to be the entire point. If it wasn't, where would your supposed success come from?
And no, no advantage in the future can be gained from the fact that a streak just ended in the past.
Quote: Beethoven9thHe's right. Unless you're betting purple chips, you'll make more money panhandling.
O.K., I laid out a general expectation as to how often I believe the setup occurs.......Macau twice an hour.....Gold Coast 90 mins? If purple chips make you uncomfortable.....you can always buy in for reds.
Quote: rdw4potusYou're using an example where a streak of player results has just ended, and you're betting banker. What the hell do you mean that you're making "no claims as to what is going to happen"? That would appear to be the entire point. If it wasn't, where would your supposed success come from?
And no, no advantage in the future can be gained from the fact that a streak just ended in the past.
Do you believe the longest banker/player run is 23?
Quote: stoneynvDo you believe the longest banker/player run is 23?
I believe its undefined. After all, given that a streak of 23 has already occurred, there's about a 50% chance that the streak will continue for at least one more hand.
Quote: Beethoven9thI've never been to Macau, but at Gold Coast, you may be waiting a lot longer than 90 mins. I play bacc pretty regularly around town, and it's been about a month since I've seen 13 players/banks in a row. Granted, I wasn't scanning every single shoe at every table during my time at each casino, but I do try to pay attention to what's going on around me.
fair enough
Quote: rdw4potusI believe its undefined. After all, given that a streak of 23 has already occurred, there's about a 50% chance that the streak will continue for at least one more hand.
No, I think your saying the streak can go on indefinitely.
Quote: stoneynvO.K., I laid out a general expectation as to how often I believe the setup occurs.......Macau twice an hour.....Gold Coast 90 mins? If purple chips make you uncomfortable.....you can always buy in for reds.
I think your times are way off. that said, what are the odds you'll be in the right casino at the right time in Macau? How much of an advantage do you think this system gives you? We're talking about betting $500 every 30 minutes. That should result in a loss of about $10/hour. Let's say your system reverses that and makes you $10/hour instead. Yeah, I can do better than that panhandling or looking for uncashed slot credits. Or counting cards at blackjack - and I have no doubt that counting cards is a method that actually works to improve my odds of success.
Quote: IbeatyouracesYes, it can.
O.K. pal, you've heard about the Bac game in Jerkoffastan were a banker streak has been going on, well, forever.
Quote: stoneynvO.K. pal, you've heard about the Bac game in Jerkoffastan were a banker streak has been going on, well, forever.
lol. ok. But why is 23 magic? Is it a Michael Jordan thing? Why not 45 then? If there were 45 players in a row, banker would be super-duper due, right?
Quote: rdw4potusYes, all streaks end. But, that doesn't have anything to do with what is going to happen next. This system doesn't have any advantage over randomly betting.
It has a huge advantage!
Baccarat is a negative expectation game, but playing in the manner described by the OP (if starting the Marty at Table Minimum) will result in only running the Marty every 90 minutes to two hours. Therefore, the average bet per Marty run is going to be much lower than the sum of betting the Table Minimum for the same amount of time, which will cause the OP to lose money more slowly.
If it takes longer than 90-120 minutes per run, all the better!
The OP will still lose in the long run, though.
The best Baccarat System ever, though, is not to play Baccarat. Remember the computer from War Games , "The only winning move is not to play."
Quote: IbeatyouracesYeah, I am. But what I do works!
Fair enough, appreciate your honesty. My "wait 13" system has been put to rest.
Never placed a bet.
Quote: CalderI've been playing that system for two years, I'm exactly even.
Never placed a bet.
I'll play 8 hour Bac sessions in Cincy. A 13 streak will show virtually every trip. Cincy has 3 Bac tables. But that's worthless info. I've learned tonight that streaks can go on forever. Hey, clever post.
To the OP, if this is a serious post, I apologize. I'm not trying to mock any attempt to gain information/knowledge from those who are more informed/knowledgeable. That's exactly the reason I'm here after all. Just an honest question.
Quote: gts4ever
To the OP, if this is a serious post, I apologize. I'm not trying to mock any attempt to gain information/knowledge from those who are more informed/knowledgeable. That's exactly the reason I'm here after all. Just an honest question.
I don't know, it could be, but it's worth answering the question if I prevent just one person from actually going in with their money for necessities and a system that they actually believe works. My stance on systems is obviously that they don't work, unless one is playing a positive expectation game...in which event they only should work, as should flat betting...bankroll can be a killer.
That said, a system in a negative expectation game can often be fun for some (I like the Labouchere, but mostly on the free WoO games) if someone knows ahead of time that it doesn't affect the House Edge, you will still lose in the long run, and the system only redistributes the way you lose.
Quote: gts4everI'm going to ask this question knowing that it sounds like I'm being a sarcastic ass, but in all honesty I am not. I'll ask it this one time at the risk of being labeled as a jerk. So, my question is....are these threads for real? I honestly read them as clearly being troll threads, yet in general the consensus on the forum is just do calmly state various forms of the obvious "past has no impact on future events". Maybe this is some running inside joke that I'm not privy to?
To the OP, if this is a serious post, I apologize. I'm not trying to mock any attempt to gain information/knowledge from those who are more informed/knowledgeable. That's exactly the reason I'm here after all. Just an honest question.
Yes, it's a serious post. I've posted other ideas that have been roundly dismissed. I find it amusing that everybody assumes I'll be the guy that will be sitting at the Bac table when essentially a new world record will be established. Am I that unlucky? I'm simply adding a little color to a forum that is 99.9% math oriented.
gts4ever......why are you so obsessed with what you perceive as troll posts? I think your trolling for trolls.
Quote: stoneynvYes, it's a serious post. I've posted other ideas that have been roundly dismissed. I find it amusing that everybody assumes I'll be the guy that will be sitting at the Bac table when essentially a new world record will be established. Am I that unlucky? I'm simply adding a little color to a forum that is 99.9% math oriented.
gts4ever......why are you so obsessed with what you perceive as troll posts? I think your trolling for trolls.
Ha. That's fair and the reason I caveated my question. I guess I assumed if you weren't a troll, you'd be sitting at a baccarat table slowly amassing great wealth instead of trying to pitch to a forum that is 99.9% math oriented.
Quote: gts4everHa. That's fair and the reason I caveated my question. I guess I assumed if you weren't a troll, you'd be sitting at a baccarat table slowly amassing great wealth instead of trying to pitch to a forum that is 99.9% math oriented.
Hey Tex, if you read OP you would find that I never claimed it would work. I was simply asking for opinions. The idea that I could be sitting at a table when a world record was broken seemed a little remote........PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP.....P........felted and proud to have participated in a world record run. Life is all about the stories.
Your smart ass comment has been noted. "amassing great wealth"........stick to your 5 dollar AP game and back off.
Quote: stoneynvlets all agree that all streaks end
For all intents and purposes, they do, but let's also all agree that all bankrolls have a maximum, and unless you're a really high roller, all tables have a maximum bet which, if your goal is realistic, will eventually be less than the next number in your progression.
Quote:Lets also face up to the reality that the longest player/banker run is 22/23?
No. If you can't come up with one that was 24, then your statement should be, "The longest player/banker run so far is 23."
Otherwise, here's a system guaranteed to win:
1. Wait until you have 23 of the same result in a row - let's say 23 straight bank wins.
2. Bet $900 on the player, and $200 on a tie. (I chose those numbers because if the tie bet is 2/9 of the player bet, you win the same amount overall if either of those results happens.)
One of three things will happen:
(a) The player wins; you make $700
(b) It's a tie; you lose $900 on your player bet, but win $1600 on the tie bet; you make $700
(c) The bank wins - oh wait, the bank can't win, as that makes it 24 straight bank wins, which, according to you, never happens.
Quote: ThatDonGuyOne of three things will happen:
(a) The player wins; you make $700
(b) It's a tie; you lose $900 on your player bet, but win $1600 on the tie bet; you make $700
(c) The bank wins - oh wait, the bank can't win, as that makes it 24 straight bank wins, which, according to you, never happens.
punto banco
"Should both Banker and Player have the same value at the end of the deal the croupier shall announce "egalité — tie bets win."
All tie bets will be paid at 8 to 1 odds
and all bets on Player or Banker remain in place and active for the next game
(the customer may or may not be able to retract these bets depending on casino rules)."
(b) It's a tie; you PUSH on your Player bet, but win $1600 on the Tie bet; you make $1600
The OP needs to state is his 23 in a row for one shoe only?
The probability is much higher for a run of 23 or more over 2 shoes than just in one shoe.
(the end of one, say 13 Bankers and the very next shoe starts with 11 Bankers in a row.
That is 24 in a row by my count over 2 shoes.
Some may say the longest was only 13 Bankers because it happened only in one shoe.)
I guess we need to put two shoes together.
Who thought of 2 shoes??
Those with 2 feet
IMO, I say Stop all the waiting!
Unless you have more fun waiting
The waiting is the hardest part.
Winning is easy
See you at the tables!!
So, I offered up an idea (surely not unique) based on this (23) number.......can and will the number change?.....of course. On the practical side, I used Macau or the Gold Coast as an example to gain efficiency..... a fair number of 13 in a row setups can be found over a surprisingly short period of time at a very busy Bac pit.....24 hours.....
Yes, I understand that if 23 Bankers show in a row the odds on the next hand that a banker shows is approximately 50/50 excluding ties. Learned that in HS statistics class. That's not lost on me....I'm simply saying to the house.... beat me 13 + 11 or 24 hands in a row. Well all know what the probability of 24 in a row is......Martingale, Fibonacci or another custom progression may work? Can I get felted? Of course....but it may take awhile. Perhaps a lifetime.
I'm just using some bottom up thinking. It just seems to me that there may be some value in understanding and observing streaks. Sorry, if I've offended the top down thinkers. Not really.:-)
Quote: stoneynvAgain, nowhere did I say I found the holy grail. I just tossed out an idea based on imperial evidence that shows the longest player/banker run is 23. That number, (23) is derived perhaps over billions of hands. Please correct me if you know the number to be different.
The point is that no number is absolute. If there's a 24, that doesn't mean that someday there won't be a 25...and then a 26...and so on.
Quote: stoneynvYes, I understand that if 23 Bankers show in a row the odds on the next hand that a banker shows is approximately 50/50 excluding ties. Learned that in HS statistics class. That's not lost on me....I'm simply saying to the house.... beat me 13 + 11 or 24 hands in a row. Well all know what the probability of 24 in a row is......Martingale, Fibonacci or another custom progression may work?
Yes, we all know the probability of 24 in row. We also know the probability of 23 in a row followed by the streak being broken.
Quote: stoneynvCan I get felted? Of course....but it may take awhile. Perhaps a lifetime.
You'll find that it takes just as long as it does when you start without bothering to wait for a streak.
Quote: stoneynvI'm just using some bottom up thinking. It just seems to me that there may be some value in understanding and observing streaks. Sorry, if I've offended the top down thinkers. Not really.:-)
If a streak is an indicator of anything, it is indicating a physical flaw with the implements used (e.g. a biased Roulette wheel), in which case it makes more sense to bet with the streak rather than against it.
Quote: stoneynvI just tossed out an idea based on imperial evidence
Quote: stoneynv
Yes, I understand that if 23 Bankers show in a row the odds on the next hand that a banker shows is approximately 50/50 excluding ties. Learned that in HS statistics class. That's not lost on me....I'm simply saying to the house.... beat me 13 + 11 or 24 hands in a row. Well all know what the probability of 24 in a row is......Martingale, Fibonacci or another custom progression may work? Can I get felted? Of course....but it may take awhile. Perhaps a lifetime.
I'm just using some bottom up thinking. It just seems to me that there may be some value in understanding and observing streaks. Sorry, if I've offended the top down thinkers. Not really.:-)
I'm a little confused as to what you are debating, here. You seem to acknowledge that the 23 streak could be broken, and you seem to understand that the probability of losing 11 in a row after a streak of thirteen is the same as the probability of just sitting down and losing 11 in a row, regardless of what happened previously, so what are you arguing?
As stated, I think it's a good system because you won't bet that often, and it is a negative expectation game...so the less you bet...the better. You might lose on your first go, but you should go quite some time without losing.
Quote: Mission146
As stated, I think it's a good system because you won't bet that often, and it is a negative expectation game...so the less you bet...the better. You might lose on your first go, but you should go quite some time without losing.
The trouble would be staying awake while you are waiting for the precondition to occur so that you could begin betting. The other thing is whether you would be allowed to occupy a seat at the table for that long, or if you would have to hope you could get a seat when the precondition occurs.
Martingale your way out of that if you can.
Of course by then even me, a very anti "system player" gambler, suspecting something was amiss would have been banging big bets on the trend to continue.
Quote: rdw4potusI think your times are way off. that said, what are the odds you'll be in the right casino at the right time in Macau? How much of an advantage do you think this system gives you? We're talking about betting $500 every 30 minutes. That should result in a loss of about $10/hour. Let's say your system reverses that and makes you $10/hour instead. Yeah, I can do better than that panhandling or looking for uncashed slot credits. Or counting cards at blackjack - and I have no doubt that counting cards is a method that actually works to improve my odds of success.
Well said...BJ give you better advantage with splitting and double down, on dealer's weak cards. Wait for that is better than waiting for Bac long streak.
There are more than 300 bac table in Grand Lisboa casino, Macau alone. Add that to more than 40 Casino outlets in the city. Long streak every hour???? 13 to 23 streak hands??? could be imaginery.
BJ player myself and still losing.
