Craps revised martingale...

So I had an idea (probably been thought of before, but meh) of a martingale esque system that if you have a good chunk of capitol to start with, should pay out very well. All you do, is start with the minimum, and play just the field bet. Any time you dont win, you triple the bet. The way I figure it, this should pay off prety well.


Bet amount Win amount total investment profit in series
$5 10 5 5
$15 30 20 10
$45 90 65 25
$135 270 200 70
$405 810 605 205
1000 (MAX) 2000 1605 395



Thoughts?

Youll have to add the columns mentally, since the forum re-formatted my spacing

I think it will be tons of fun until it ends in tears, like all martingale 'systems.'

6 in a row is incredibly easy. Watching the rolls a week ago, there were five in a row twice in an hour period. I hold the opinion that systems are okay if you understand you'll eventually get burned. Short term wins are certainly possible. But what are you win goals? To me they have to be relatively small per session.

Quote: hagen49

So I had an idea (probably been thought of before, but meh) of a martingale esque system that if you have a good chunk of capitol to start with, should pay out very well. All you do, is start with the minimum, and play just the field bet. Any time you dont win, you triple the bet. The way I figure it, this should pay off prety well.


Bet amount Win amount total investment profit in series
$5 10 5 5
$15 30 20 10
$45 90 65 25
$135 270 200 70
$405 810 605 205
1000 (MAX) 2000 1605 395



Thoughts?

The interesting thing about this system is that you almost want to come to a point of near failure before you win because that is the time that you have any chance of winning any kind of substantial amount of money. I'm also assuming that either Midnight or Snake Eyes pays triple, though it doesn't seem that you mentioned that. Now, the Field Bet is a bad bet compared to most (except at Santa Ana Star where both Snake Eyes and Midnight pay triple for a House Edge of 0.00%,) but it becomes a horrible bet if the House only doubles Midnight and Snake Eyes.

It's like any other Martingale, otherwise. The only difference is that I can't compare it to making one large bet to win a fixed small amount, because the amount to be won is not fixed, so let's do some Math...

(NOTE: My computer is being funky about multiple windows, so I'm using an actual scientific calculator and moving stuff over, so I may screw up a minor decimal place)

$5.00 Field

Probability of Even Money: 14/36

Probability of Double: 1/36

Probability of Triple: 1/36

Probability of Loss: 20/36

Even Money: 1.9444444

Double: .27777778

Triple: .416666667

1.94444444 + .27777778 + .416666667 = 2.638888887

$15.00 Field (if loss)

Probability of Even Money: (14/36 * 15)

Probability of Double: (1/36 * 30)

Probability of Triple: (1/36 * 45)

Probability of Loss: 20/36

Even Money: 5.833333333

Double: .833333333

Triple: 1.25

(1.25 + .8333333333 + 5.833333333 - 5) * 20/36 = 1.62037037

$45.00 Field (if two losses)

Probability of Even Money: (14/36 * 45)

Probability of Double: (1/36 * 90)

Probability of Triple: (1/36 * 135)

Probability of Loss: 20/36

Even Money: 17.5

Double: 2.5

Triple: 3.75

(3.75 + 2.5 + 17.5 - 20) * (20/36 * 20/36) = 1.15740741

$135.00 Field (if three losses)

Probability of Even Money: (14/36 * 135)

Probability of Double: (1/36 * 270)

Probability of Triple: (1/36 * 405)

Probability of Loss: 20/36

Even Money: 52.5

Double: 7.5

Triple: 11.25

(52.5 + 7.5 + 11.25 - 65) * (20/36 * 20/36 * 20/36) = 1.071673525

$405.00 Field (if four losses)

Probability of Even Money: (14/36 * 405)

Probability of Double: (1/36 * 810)

Probability of Triple: (1/36 * 1215)

Probability of Loss: 20/36

Even Money: 157.5

Double: 22.5

Triple: 33.75

(33.75 + 22.5 + 157.5 - 200) * (20/36 * 20/36 * 20/36 * 20/36) = 1.309823198

$1000.00 Field (if five losses)

Probability of Even Money: (14/36 * 1000)

Probability of Double: (1/36 * 2000)

Probability of Triple: (1/36 * 3000)

Probability of Loss:

Even Money: 388.8888889

Double: 55.5555556

Triple: 83.3333333

(83.3333333 + 55.5555556 + 388.8888889 - 605) * (20/36 * 20/36 * 20/36 * 20/36 * 20/36) = -4.08676598

Six Losses

(20/36^6) * -1605 = -47.18891655

Expected Value of Total Bet: -47.18891655 - 4.08676598 +1.309823198 + 1.071673525 + 1.15740741 + 1.62037037 + 2.638888887 = -$43.47751914

Worthy of note is that it appears (to me) that you should stop at the $405.00 bet if the Table Maximum prohibits you from making a bet of $1215. I mean, the House Edge is the same either way, but even ignoring a loss, the combined expected value of all of your potential wins on the $1,000 bet doesn't even cover the amount that you have already lost.

Win Loss Rates

Level 1 Win: 16/36 = .44444444

Level 2 Win: (20/36 * 16/36) = .24691358

Level 3 Win: (20/36)^2 * (16/36) = .137174211

Level 4 Win: (20/36)^3 * (16/36) = .076207895

Level 5 Win: (20/36)^4 * (16/36) = .04233772

Level 6 Win: (20/36)^5 * (16/36) = .023520955

Level 6 Loss: (220/36)^6 = .029401194

Success Rate: 1 - .029401194 = 97.0598806%

Expected Value of Failure: 1605 * .029401194 = -$47.18891637

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

I'm going to create a dice control / martingale / tipping / democrats suck thread that will take down this site.

(Note, I actually have created 3 threads in those categories. Although 1 was made as a joke)

WHat do you guys think about employing the same "triple up" idea at baccarat or some other "coin flip" type set up, whether it be baccarat, playing red/black on roulette, etc.

Quote: hagen49

WHat do you guys think about employing the same "triple up" idea at baccarat or some other "coin flip" type set up, whether it be baccarat, playing red/black on roulette, etc.

I think that your long-term losses will fall in line with the House Edge of the game.

Honestly, though, the idea behind any sort of negative progression system is to be able to lose at a higher than expected rate and still come out ahead, so the Field Bet would not be my choice because it has a higher loss rate than many other Even-Money propositions. The higher loss rate makes it more likely that your system will fail.

The thing that you will lose not betting the Field is the ability to Double or Triple the amount bet on a win, but if you were to apply your system to something with a lower loss rate, such as a Line Bet at Craps or Baccarat, then you will lose less often. Those bets also come with a Lower House Edge, which always makes them better regardless of what system you are playing or none at all...as your losses will always approach the House Edge.

For example, the Pass Line bet at Craps has a .5071 probability of losing, so your probability of dropping six in a row is:

(.5071)^6 = .017004414

Which makes your success rate:

1 - .017004414 = .982995586 or 98.3%