Odds to break with this Roulette system

If I was to bet 1€ for 1st and 2nd column, there's about 2/3 change of winning 3x1€.

Then I use the Martingale if the 3rd column hits, and double my bets to 2€. And so on, the next bet per column would be 5€ to compensate for previous losings, next would be 5+2+1€ per column and so on.

If I had a decent bankroll, say 1000€, and the maximum bet for a column is 1800€, what are my odds to "break" in first 1000, 5000 or 10000 rounds?

How about if I stopped the Martingale betting after, say, it has reached 100€ per column, and returned to 1€? I don't know too good the statistics and math behind probabilities, so I'm asking you!

I know it's -EV and every system eventually breaks, no need to tell that.

If I understood correctly, then seems like the calculation is wrong to begin with.

If you're betting 1 and 1 on two thirds and win, that means you profit 1 only, not 3x1, because you bet 2 and won 3, so profit is only 1.
When you lose you need to triple your bet, not double your bet.

Here:

Turn |Chance to lose| In # Turns|1 bet| total bet| Profit| Loss
1 | 35.14% 2.85 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00
2 | 12.35% 8.10 3.00 6.00 1.00 8.00
3 | 4.34% 23.05 9.00 18.00 1.00 26.00
4 | 1.52% 65.59 27.00 54.00 1.00 80.00
5 | 0.54% 186.66 81.00 162.00 1.00 242.00
6 | 0.19% 531.19 243.00 486.00 1.00 728.00
7 | 0.07% 1511.64 729.00 1458.00 1.00 2186.00

With a bankroll of 1000, if the minimum bet is 1, you can only lose 6 turns in a row.
It should happen averagely once in 531 turns.

It doesn't save it properly so its not very clear which number belongs to which column, but if you will paste it in excel it might work.

Yes. I understand that. Seems I made a mistake here putting down the numbers! I'll take some time to think about your numbers. Randomness is intriguing and sometimes non-intuitive! Don't you think this is almost a winning system? ;)

Quote: Fuengirola2

Yes. I understand that. Seems I made a mistake here putting down the numbers! I'll take some time to think about your numbers. Randomness is intriguing and sometimes non-intuitive! Don't you think this is almost a winning system? ;)

It's a VERY SIMPLE system. Instead of betting on even bets (like red/black), you just bet on two thirds. I don't see anything winning or special about it :)

Which one would you choose for Martingale betting, even bets or this two-thirds?

Quote: Fuengirola2

Which one would you choose for Martingale betting, even bets or this two-thirds?

Neither. Do not Martingale.

I want to believe! If you were to try Martingale (bla bla bla), would you play BJ, BC or Roulette? I have never had long losing streaks in BJ, but have had them in Roulette.

Quote: Fuengirola2

I want to believe! If you were to try Martingale (bla bla bla), would you play BJ, BC or Roulette? I have never had long losing streaks in BJ, but have had them in Roulette.

I want to believe I'll go 10/10 with the 10x multiplier on Caveman Keno, believing itself causes you no harm, but when you start backing up your beliefs with $$$, you can run into some trouble...

For the latter question, you just want to go with the lowest House Edge. Depending on whether or not you'll incorporate splits/doubles into your Martingale, Blackjack could be your best option depending on the Rules. If you do not intend to split/double at all, then you'd probably go:

Baccarat-Banker (You'd have to adjust your Marty to factor in the commission)
Baccarat-Player
Single-Zero Roulette
Blackjack/Double-00 Roulette

I put BJ and 00 Roulette together because it would still depend on the Rules and play. If you mimic the dealer (under most Rules) it would be worse than 00 Roulette, and if you do not mimic the dealer, it could still depend on the Rules. For example, with 6:5 Blackjack, you'd almost certainly be worse off than 00 Roulette (under most Rules) if you never split/double, but otherwise hit/stand according to BS.