3 bets at .28% HE is better than 2 bets at 1.06% HE?
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1 member has voted
August 31st, 2012 at 4:21:17 PM
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Goal: Win $1000 (or close to it)
max bet on e-Baccarat is $500.
I need to bet $500 twice (Banker) to win ~1000 total. (2 x 1.06 = 2.12% cummulative HE?)
e-Craps (Playing Darkside) at 3/4/5x.
I need to win $60/360 odds twice, then press to $85/510 to win ~1000 total. (3 x .28 = .84 HE?)
Bankroll is 10x initial bet:
e-Baccarat is $5000
e-Craps is 4200
Quit if i lose 1/2 my bankroll.
Which betting system has the best chance of being +1000? WHY?
I say 3 bets at .28% HE because it has a lower cummulative HE than 2bets at 1.06% HE
max bet on e-Baccarat is $500.
I need to bet $500 twice (Banker) to win ~1000 total. (2 x 1.06 = 2.12% cummulative HE?)
e-Craps (Playing Darkside) at 3/4/5x.
I need to win $60/360 odds twice, then press to $85/510 to win ~1000 total. (3 x .28 = .84 HE?)
Bankroll is 10x initial bet:
e-Baccarat is $5000
e-Craps is 4200
Quit if i lose 1/2 my bankroll.
Which betting system has the best chance of being +1000? WHY?
I say 3 bets at .28% HE because it has a lower cummulative HE than 2bets at 1.06% HE
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 31st, 2012 at 5:29:54 PM
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Which of the two would you most enjoy?
The ecraps/real-craps requires you to successfully establish a point and then place the odds on it and then make the point.
That is an extra round of decision-making that can go adversely in either results or failure of courage/distraction.
Which has the better looking waitress, e-craps or e-Baccarat?
In other words, its so close as to be a coin-toss so you might as well base your decision on other factors than pure House Edge.
The ecraps/real-craps requires you to successfully establish a point and then place the odds on it and then make the point.
That is an extra round of decision-making that can go adversely in either results or failure of courage/distraction.
Which has the better looking waitress, e-craps or e-Baccarat?
In other words, its so close as to be a coin-toss so you might as well base your decision on other factors than pure House Edge.
August 31st, 2012 at 5:33:32 PM
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" Which has the better looking waitress, e-craps or e-Baccarat?"
More important, which , if any, do you have a chance of scoring with ?
More important, which , if any, do you have a chance of scoring with ?
August 31st, 2012 at 8:00:14 PM
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The EV is irrelevant over that few bets. The answer to your question has to do with the actual probability of winning given the system constraints you've established. Based on what you've written above, Baccarat is the right play.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 31st, 2012 at 8:51:47 PM
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Forget the EV for a moment. You have about a 1/4 chance of winning in baccarat right away. You have a significantly lower chance of winning in craps right away. Winning straight away is the only circumstance under which your calculations of EV are valid, and once you've won, EV is irrelevant. Also note that percentages don't really add like that - if you bet $500, and $500 again, the edge is still 1.06% of what you've bet. You have to multiply by the bet size to add.
The calculations you should be making are those that account for the more likely scenario of bouncing up and down and eventually hitting a point where you're willing to walk away (i.e., in craps, figuring you're up enough to press, I guess $480, and winning that press, or in baccarat, I guess being $1000 up before the cagnotte - but e-baccarat deducts that automatically, IINM, so I guess it would be whenever you're between $500 and $1000 up.), or the slightly less likely scenario of bouncing up and down and eventually hitting your stoploss. Someone with more patience for infinite number crunching than I have can work out the edge of the whole scenario, but I'd be willing to put down a red or two that craps will add up to, if not more than baccarat, far closer than you have it, since taking into account these scenarios, you'll be making far more bets in craps.
Of course, better yet would be to just make bigger bets in craps.
The calculations you should be making are those that account for the more likely scenario of bouncing up and down and eventually hitting a point where you're willing to walk away (i.e., in craps, figuring you're up enough to press, I guess $480, and winning that press, or in baccarat, I guess being $1000 up before the cagnotte - but e-baccarat deducts that automatically, IINM, so I guess it would be whenever you're between $500 and $1000 up.), or the slightly less likely scenario of bouncing up and down and eventually hitting your stoploss. Someone with more patience for infinite number crunching than I have can work out the edge of the whole scenario, but I'd be willing to put down a red or two that craps will add up to, if not more than baccarat, far closer than you have it, since taking into account these scenarios, you'll be making far more bets in craps.
Of course, better yet would be to just make bigger bets in craps.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
August 31st, 2012 at 8:53:42 PM
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I Am not a craps players, but seems to me getting 100 odds is the best bet for a one time bet ??
August 31st, 2012 at 9:59:39 PM
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The 100x odds term would mean refer to the allowable SIZE of an odds bet, not its payout. 100x means 100 times your flat bet.
August 31st, 2012 at 10:20:24 PM
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I sorta know that. I mean seems best odds for doubling on one roll ?
August 31st, 2012 at 10:50:31 PM
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Pretty sure that's just his name - he mentions 3-4-5x odds.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
