No Retreat BJ continues winning.

Back to BJ now as easier winning than craps. Have now completed 49 day sessions with my NO RETREAT BJ for net win of $3875, 8 losing days and 41 winning days, and with no mental gymnastics involved.

Have continued to play low $ bets with a $500 day bankroll. Double deck with good rules, $10 starting bet, then upping one $5 unit after each win with max bet of $20. NO regressions. Then start anew after the next shuffle.
Example: first bet after the shuffle is $10, win this hand so next bet is $15, lose that hand so next bet remains at $15, next hand is win so next bet is $20, lose that hand so next bet remains at max of $20, win the next bet so next bet remains at $20, etc. Simply upping one unit on wins until the max bet is double the starting bet, no regressions, and need session bankroll of 50x the starting bet.

Just lucky maybe, but it sure is holding up well over many sessions now.

are you counting? it is not hard to learn.
you could probably improve your betting pattern and results if you were.

If you're starting at two units, you're basically just flat betting. But regardless, I think it's a combination of luck and underreporting your losses.

Congrats dwm,

Keep up the good luck streak!

this makes no sense, he is just playing blackjack and running good, there is absolutely nothing to whatever you are doing - its amazes me how people come on here and makes fools of themselves like my gf the time she bet me 50-1 odds that after I flipped a quarter and got heads 12 times in a row that tails was due

100% agree with strictlyAP. There is no betting system that can over come a negative expectation game in the long run. All you are doing is pyramiding your bets which will emphasize the last hand or two. I suspect if you examine these short term results, you will find you have done disproportionately well the last few hands just before the shuffle. As time goes on, and your results grows to a more meaningful sample size, this abnormality will even out and you will be in the hole looking up. I am not wishing you bad fortune or hoping for this. It is just a fact. You are doing nothing more than claiming that the earth is flat.

Now ya gotta love a guy who, accepts a wager from his girlfriend that is heavily weighted in his favor. Well....those of us in the AP community gotta love him. His girlfriend, maybe not so much. lol

Quote: dwm

Have continued to play low $ bets with a $500 day bankroll. Double deck with good rules, $10 starting bet, then upping one $5 unit after each win with max bet of $20. NO regressions. Then start anew after the next shuffle.
Example: first bet after the shuffle is $10, win this hand so next bet is $15, lose that hand so next bet remains at $15, next hand is win so next bet is $20, lose that hand so next bet remains at max of $20, win the next bet so next bet remains at $20, etc. Simply upping one unit on wins until the max bet is double the starting bet, no regressions, and need session bankroll of 50x the starting bet.

You could have done even better!
I think your system is up-side down.
Increase your bet after a loss and stay the same after a win.
Simulate this type of play vs. yours and you will see a slight difference against your system.

It is a proven fact that right after a win in BJ, the very next hand will be more likely to lose the next one —
i.e., winning one hand is an indicator that the player’s expectation on the next hand has dropped.

If a player loses a hand, he will be more likely to win the next one

If a player pushes a hand with the dealer, it is an even stronger indicator than a win that the player’s expectation on the next hand has dropped.
I have simulated this, and it sure is true.
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_no_need_to_count_system.htm

Quote: dwm

Just lucky maybe, but it sure is holding up well over many sessions now.

Absolutely Just all luck.

Without knowing exactly how many hands you have played in each session,
If 1 million players tried to follow your betting system, we might see about 25,000 or so be at your level or higher, all the others lost their $500 bankroll trying to get to your winning level.

Again, it is not your system that is winning, just variance and/or your lack of actual data.
Try collecting better data, like the number of bets you make at each level and the number of hands actually played.
This should be easy to do for each session.

Without counting,
(1.34 million hand sim results with BS)

12.9094513% of your wins come from a Blackjack at 3 to 2 payout. This is a no-brainer.
22.4903958% of your wins come from Double Down wins.
4.7617084% of your wins come from Split hand wins.
59.8384446 % of your wins come all other wins.

To show the other side of the coin
15.524272% of your losses come from a Double Down loss.
4.5048098% of your losses come from a Split hand loss.
79.9709183% of your losses are the rest.

Quote: 7craps

It is a proven fact that right after a win in BJ, the very next hand will be more likely to lose the next one —
i.e., winning one hand is an indicator that the player’s expectation on the next hand has dropped.

If a player loses a hand, he will be more likely to win the next one

If a player pushes a hand with the dealer, it is an even stronger indicator than a win that the player’s expectation on the next hand has dropped.

These are facts but still insignificant. No where no enough to overcome the statistical disadvantage of the next hand and no where near enough to consider building any kind of progressive or pyramid betting pattern because of. I am not going to look the exact number up right now, but it would be something along the lines of if you are playing a game where the casino has an initial advantage of .43 percent, then the hand after a losing hand it may drop to .4297 percent, hardly worth mentioning. Without some sort of information pertaining to the makeup of the remaining cards, you are still playing the following hand at a significant disadvantage.

Very true.
They were in the context directed to the OP and his BJ playing style.

He now says he wins by playing his system in BJ and "Back to BJ now as easier winning than craps" that has even a lower edge to play against.

Short Session wins is all about variance with a little house edge sprinkled on top.

DMW, you will find it much easier to win, and win more when you do win,
by playing just the don't pass at Craps and laying 5X odds or the pass and taking 5X odds.

You never have to increase your bets, or remember basic strategy play as in BJ, even chicken out on the proper double down hands and split hands,

If you do not count in BJ, Craps runs winning circles around BJ, without even trying.

Quote: 7craps

Very true.
They were in the context directed to the OP and his BJ playing style.

I understand the context, 7craps. And I know YOU knew this slight change was still insignificant. Just wanted to make sure anyone else reading didn't think "hey I have a better chance of winning after a losing hand" and start doubling up after losses or some such strategy that would further escalate their rate of losing.

Just thought I'd point something out here:

According to the Wizard, blackjack under typical rules has a house edge of .28%, and a variance of 1.15. This means that after about 170,000 hands, dead even will be one sigma up from the mean, so if a large group of people flat-bet 170,000 hands and play perfectly (without counting), almost a sixth of them will be up at the end. So you're not really that lucky.

(Indeed, the chance of long streaks, combined with the illusion of control that the moderately complex basic strategy gives, is a big part of why the game is so popular. But the house always wins in the end.)

Quote: 24Bingo

Just thought I'd point something out here:

According to the Wizard, blackjack under typical rules has a house edge of .28%, and a variance of 1.15.

The gambling town that I reside in, Las Vegas, has thousands upon thousands of blackjack tables. There are some that have a house edge as low as .28%, but they are far and few between and usually come with $100 minimums or more. It is a stretch to say typical rules have a house edge of .28%. Maybe 20 years ago. I would say typical rules today, of games not only here but several other markets that I play regularly are closer to .5% house edge.

e43212



.

Whoops... I must have been thinking of the standard deviation, though, since the math is for the standard deviation (sqrt(170000*1.15^2) ~= 170000*.0028). So two wrongs make a right in this case.

The rules problem is thornier (I'd remembered that he'd assumed H17 for some reason), but I was just trying to make a point about how far the variance actually is from the mean in blackjack. (Remember, even for double that edge, that's still 40000 hands.) Still, when I said he was basically flat-betting, I meant he was more or less flat-betting $20... and by your numbers at $15, I'll still say rolling snake eyes still isn't all that lucky.

Quote: dwm

Back to BJ now as easier winning than craps. Have now completed 49 day sessions with my NO RETREAT BJ for net win of $3875, 8 losing days and 41 winning days, and with no mental gymnastics involved.

Have continued to play low $ bets with a $500 day bankroll. Double deck with good rules, $10 starting bet, then upping one $5 unit after each win with max bet of $20. NO regressions. Then start anew after the next shuffle.
Example: first bet after the shuffle is $10, win this hand so next bet is $15, lose that hand so next bet remains at $15, next hand is win so next bet is $20, lose that hand so next bet remains at max of $20, win the next bet so next bet remains at $20, etc. Simply upping one unit on wins until the max bet is double the starting bet, no regressions, and need session bankroll of 50x the starting bet.

Just lucky maybe, but it sure is holding up well over many sessions now.

I guess I am confused as to why this post was not put in the, "Betting Systems," forum.

I am interested in a couple of things, however.

1.) How do you handle a double-up or split or Split+Double and lose situation? Same bet?

2.) How do you handle a double-up or split or Split+Double and win situation if base bet is <4 units? Do you again increase the bet by one unit?

I hope that you continue to succeed, but this system does nothing more than weight the result of the last hand(s) greater than the results of the hands at the two credit + three credit bets before them. Excepting only the fact that strict adherence to this system will keep you from betting more during a positive count, (and that's assuming you're a counter) there's nothing about it that strikes me as worsening your odds (as long as you make your BS plays appropriately) so, if you like it, go for it.

For some reason after reading this thread the name John Patrick popped into my head.
I WONDER WHY !

Mission: Double down wins and split wins are played the same as a regular hand win, i.e. up one unit on a win and same bet on a loss.
I always stop at double my starting bet. I do have better results with positive progressions than negative progressions and have played both in the past.

I am just about ready to increase my betting to starting at $15 with max bet of $30 with $5 unit increases on wins and will use a $800 day session bankroll. I might add that some day wins were actually a 2-3 night trip win that I am counting as a single win. There are plenty of $10 DD tables with regular good rules of dealer stands on soft 17, can split up to 4 cards and double off splits, double off any 2 cards, etc. in Mississippi. Examples are Treasure Bay and Margariteville in Biloxi and Rainbow, Diamondjacks, Riverwalk in Vicksburg.