AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:15:07 PM permalink
I have a promotion from a casino. Let's say the promotion is for $100 of free play. You have a choice as follows:

Choice A. $100 ticket that can be played on any slot machine or video poker machine, you choose the denomination.

Choice B. Ten $10 gaming vouchers for table games. Each voucher can be used on an even money bet only and can be played until it loses. So theoretically you could play it on black on roulette and as long as black keeps hitting you get paid $10 in real chips and continue betting your "voucher" until it loses. Then repeat the process with another $10 voucher.

Here's the question: which "free play" option do you choose and how do you play it to maximize your chance of bringing home some money.

Discussion points: Certainly your have the option of putting the $100 ticket into a megabucks machine for a shot at the millions, or you could play a 25-cent slot for a smaller jackpot. You could play 25-cent Jacks or Better video poker with a 9/6 paytable (if you can find it) for a 99.5% long term payback.

Or you could take ten of the $10 vouchers and make pass or don't pass bets in craps, or black/red bets at roulette. Im not sure what would happen at BJ if you would only get even money on a blackjack? But for discussion purposes please use both even money and 3/2 payoffs for blackjack.

In the past I have played 8/5 Bonus Poker with promotions such as these and have come close to getting back nearly all of the "free play" I started with. The next time I get a promotion such as this I'm thinking about trying the passline at craps. I discussed this with a friend last night who suggested the "don't pass" at craps.
Nareed
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:25:30 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Choice B. Ten $10 gaming vouchers for table games. Each voucher can be used on an even money bet only and can be played until it loses. So theoretically you could play it on black on roulette and as long as black keeps hitting you get paid $10 in real chips and continue betting your "voucher" until it loses. Then repeat the process with another $10 voucher.



I take it these are not match-play coupons. Just the same you'd better check and make sure. Assuming it is as you say, or that you're sure of it already, it seems to me the best option is to play them on the lowest HE available. How about Pai Gow Poker? I've no idea what the commission would do to EV. Craps seems like a good option, too.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
AlanMendelson
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:45:48 PM permalink
Definitely not match play. thank you.
DJTeddyBear
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:48:19 PM permalink
What's written in the fine print? Typically, you can only bet Red, High, Even but not Black, Low, Odd (or some other one sided combination). Only Pass not Don't Pass.

If it allows you to play both sides, do it.

Worst case scenario, the ball lands on 0 or 00, or the come out roll is 12.

Assuming that doesn't happen, then you've got 9 bets to play and will win $90 before you are down to 1 ticket.


On the other hand, we're gamblers. I'd say just take it and bet with it the way you normally do. Therefore, I'd just use it for pass line bets, until they were gone.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Mission146
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June 2nd, 2012 at 8:50:15 PM permalink
I can say that's always a good problem to have.

CHOICE A:

-If I were going to choose a slot machine, I probably wouldn't choose a Progressive. I understand that you would essentially be choosing a slot machine for the variance, don't get me wrong, but I'd be more inclined to choose a Flat-Top with the lowest (in terms of credits) top prize.

You're going to get a better ER than you would with a Progressive, and flat-tops have a tendency to hit for more decent (but non-Jackpot) payouts. In other words, it's perfectly reasonable to imagine that you may end up with $200+ by playing the slot machine and not being especially, "Lucky," whereas, to end up with $200+ actual cash on any table game is going to require a pretty stellar run. If we use Blackjack as an example, just based off of betting the $100 Freeplay, you would need two wins for every loss (discluding Naturals) in order to get $200.

-On the other hand, Video Poker is a great combination of potential positive variance and ER. If your goal is positive variance, (greater liklihood to either win OR lose money over the course of $100) then I would go ahead and play something like a $1.00 Video Poker. If you play $5/hand and hit for one 4oaK, then you're, by default, in the good for at least $125, cash, barring any other event. Even a Full House will pay you $45, so two of those and you've almost returned the $100.

However, if your strategy is to try to stay near the ER and you basically just want to come as close as possible to guaranteeing that you get some actual cash back, then maybe a $0.25 ($1.25/hand) machine would be your better option. The more hands you can play with the $100 is the more likely you are to return to something closer to the ER.

CHOICE B:

I think that I would like that for a Wrong-Way bet on Craps. I would certainly ask if you could Lay the Odds (by using actual cash) for your Don't Pass bet as you would be getting a 0% House Edge on the money that actually comes from your wallet, straight-up.

Blackjack could possibly be a little bit better of a choice, but that really depends on the House Rules. In the majority of cases, the House Edge is less than the 1.40% (Bet Resolved) that the House sees when you play the Don't Pass line, but that's assuming the BJ continues paying 3:2. Even if the BJ pays 6:5 as opposed to 3:2, the House Edge becomes greater (1.80485%-per JB & Wizard-all other Rules remaining equal) than the House Edge you experience playing the Wrong Way, so you can imagine that getting 1:1 for a Natural makes it that much worse. I could figure it out, but it's not even worth it, the HE would be far worse than with Craps.

Roulette does not even merit discussion when it comes to HE in this scenario.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

OVERALL:

It really depends on what you are trying to accomplish.

If your goal is to turn $100 into $1,000,000, then literally, your only chance (considering only the $100 Freeplay) is to play some sort of Progressive slot machine.

If your goal is to turn $100 into a few hundred or more, the quick and dirty way, and you're not really concerned about the possibility of only getting $20-$50 of your money back in the form of actual cash, then I would probably be inclined to take a $1 or $5 flat-top slot machine, preferably one with a low top prize. If you want to have a pretty good chance of, "Guaranteeing," yourself a little something back, then maybe go with a $1.00 machine with a 2 Credits Max Bet, or sometimes there are $1.00 flat-tops with a perfectly graduated payout (the 2nd coin pays double the first coin, across-the-board, even on the top prize)

I just don't think the $5.00 machine gives you enough pulls. In my slot-playing experience, it's unusual to lose twenty pulls in a row, but not unheard of.

I would say that you could go with $5.00/hand video poker with that goal. You would have a pretty good chance of walking away with something, because you're a little over 45% to win or break-even on a hand, and I'm assuming your even money pays convert directly to cash. You still have a chance of hitting a few good paying hands to balance out the remainder, but intuitively, I think that your odds of seeing $200+ at the end of a slot machine run are probably a little better...but so are your chances of losing more money because you are not 45% to break even or better on a pull.

If you want to approach a strong ER without having to risk 10% of the freeplay per play, and your goal is just to come close to the $100, then I'd go with Video Poker, max bet, but at the lowest possible denomination as that gives you greater time (in the event of a losing streak(s)) to approach the expected return.

If you don't mind putting up 10% of your Freeplay per turn, and your goal is to end up reasonably close to the $100 with a chance of going a bit over with a great run of cards, or rolls, then I would go with either Craps or Blackjack.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

WHAT I WOULD DO:

It's probably not the best selection, but I can't resist the opportunity to turn my $100 Freeplay into $200+ dollars the quick and dirty way, and it's free money, so I would probably take my chances with the $1.00 slots, playing one credit at a Max two credits machine with a perfectly graduated payout and low jackpot in relation to the amount bet. (You're not hurting you expected return possibilities by only playing one credit/pull)

I think that the right answer, however, is to play the Don't Pass line in Craps. Blackjack (Natural 3:2) might be a pretty good call, but the House Edge includes, obviously, a Blackjack paying 3:2, so even if the House Edge is less than 1%, that doesn't make you 49%+ to win any individual hand.

The Craps HE on Don't Pass is such because you are over 50% to either win/push when you bet, "Don't Pass." You're very close to 48% just to win, where you cannot be expected to win 48% of all hands in Blackjack. In fact, you are only 43.31% to win a hand of Blackjack.

I suppose the way I would phrase the question is, if I had to play all $100 at once, whether it would be a $20x5 Video Poker Machine, $100/pull slot machine, Don't Pass at Craps or a hand of Blackjack, then I would slap all $100 on Don't Pass at Craps because I have the best probability of an actual win in a sample size of one play.

There is also the potential of Laying some odds in Craps, if they will let you back up your Don't Pass bet with your own money, (using the FreePlay for the Don't Pass bet itself) so then you would be getting a zero-house edge on your own money. (the House's Edge is on their own money)

My friend, to put it bluntly, you ain't ever going to get better than 0% HE on your own money.
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rainman
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:08:06 PM permalink
Take choice b and head to the blackjack table
JB
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:51:23 PM permalink
On even-money bets in double-zero roulette, each voucher is worth exactly $9 on average (90% of face value).
On even-money bets in single-zero roulette, each voucher is worth $9.47 on average (94.7368% of face value).
On the pass line in craps, each voucher is worth $9.72 on average (97.2112% of face value).
On the don't pass in craps, each voucher is also worth about $9.72 on average (97.2336% of face value).
On the player bet in 8-deck baccarat, each voucher is worth $9.73 on average (97.3068% of face value).

With blackjack, if you factor in the 3:2 payoff and factor out the pushes, you will probably find that each voucher is worth very close to, and possibly even a little more than, $10. Then again, if you can't split or double, that benefit may end up being cancelled out. Blackjack math is not my forté, so I can't say for sure.

Based on the five bets listed above though, I would recommend using the $100 free play ticket on 9/6 Jacks (99.5439% of face value) or NSU Deuces Wild (99.7283% of face value).
AlanMendelson
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:28:58 PM permalink
Thank you all very much.

I understand the tremendous value I would get using the table voucher as the don't pass bet in craps and using my own money for the odds. Brilliant.

However, I'm one of those "right side players" who dreams of 30 minute rolls. On the other hand, I have been at tables where a shooter hits many numbers but never the point.

Given that I have ten bets for table play, I might try the dark side for a few to see how it goes.

thanks.
FleaStiff
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:36:10 PM permalink
Choice B... not only because it offers Table Game opportunities, including the chance to add your own money as an Odds bet, but because the ten visits allows you to receive additional such offers that the Blow It All 100 dollar offer does not have available. Also such offers are to lure you to return to the casino as entertainment ... its not supposed to be a one shot deal. Each of those ten visits will allow you to deal with Lady Variance and if you chose to do it on Black at Roulette one day you have the option of choosing something else some other time.

So Choice B wins hands down: Its fun, its more profitable and it has the potential to lead to a few additional Choice B decisions.
Mission146
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:49:20 PM permalink
JB,

I could be wrong about this, but I don't think that you can, "Factor out," the Pushes because I don't think the casino is going to replace your Voucher with two $5.00 chips in the event of a push. I would speculate that a Push just keeps your Voucher on the table, so we're really just looking at wins v. losses, here.

That would essentially return you to EV in Blackjack which may be slightly better or slightly worse than Don't Pass in Craps depending on the Rules, but then you have the question of whether or not you can lay odds at 0% HE with your own money backing the Voucher.

I think the 3:2 pay on a Natural and how it factors into the HE in Blackjack gives you a little bit more of a potential for variance in a limited sample size. In other words, if you don't see a Natural, then the expected loss rate for a hand of BJ is far worse than betting Don't Pass in Craps. It would seem that the goal of either is to bet $100 and end up with something close to $100, so I'd go with the game with the higher straight-up win rate, and that is Craps.
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JB
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:59:20 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

JB,

I could be wrong about this, but I don't think that you can, "Factor out," the Pushes because I don't think the casino is going to replace your Voucher with two $5.00 chips in the event of a push.


The voucher remains up until it loses. Pushes have no effect for the very reason you stated (the casino isn't exchanging the voucher for cash). A push is like rolling a 9 when the point is 6: it doesn't count, only 6s and 7s do. Likewise, a push doesn't count, only wins and losses do. If it were a cash bet, I would not be saying this.

Quote: FleaStiff

So Choice B wins hands down: Its fun, its more profitable and it has the potential to lead to a few additional Choice B decisions.


I don't think it's a hands-down winner. First, 9/6 Jacks will yield more cash from the free play than any table game, except maybe blackjack. Second, how valuable is your time? Would you rather spend an hour or more trying to turn ten $10 vouchers into $9.72 each, or spend 5 minutes turning a $100 voucher into $99.54 once? (Obviously the figures quoted here are averages; you'll never insert $100 into a $1 machine and cash out $99.54, but there's no other way to look at it.)
winmonkeyspit3
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June 2nd, 2012 at 11:16:46 PM permalink
As rainman said, get the table vouchers and play blackjack. or maybe craps. have fun and win some money.
Mission146
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June 2nd, 2012 at 11:26:20 PM permalink
Quote: JB

The voucher remains up until it loses. Pushes have no effect for the very reason you stated (the casino isn't exchanging the voucher for cash). A push is like rolling a 9 when the point is 6: it doesn't count, only 6s and 7s do. Likewise, a push doesn't count, only wins and losses do. If it were a cash bet, I would not be saying this.



I think I misunderstood your meaning when you said, "Factor out," entirely my mistake. With all due respect, I would still return to my argument of actual percentage of wins vs. actual percentage of losses. The casino wins 4.58% more hands than the player does in Blackjack, so I think the limited sample size is going to result in a player that should be more concerned about winning percentage than EV...if it's close.

In Blackjack, you're only 4.8% to be dealt a Natural, which is about 1/20 hands, which is also how many hands you'll be playing (20) if you win exactly half of the hands for which you have a Voucher on the table. Instead of 10:10, if you have one Natural but the casino wins 10 hands to your nine, then you end up with $95 on the $100...barring other outcomes such as splits/doubles. By the way, could you split/double with the Voucher? Would you do so with your cash or with another Voucher?

I think Don't Pass is better because you only lose 1.36% more of the time than you win. In other words, you have a greater liklihood of splitting your wins/losses than with Blackjack.

You're absolutely right about Baccarat, unless you can Lay Odds betting the Wrong Way in Craps, because then you're getting your own money out there (as opposed to the Freeplay) at 0% HE. I think that would mitigate the improvement of $0.01 in ER on the bets themselves.
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JB
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June 2nd, 2012 at 11:53:05 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I think I misunderstood your meaning when you said, "Factor out," entirely my mistake. With all due respect, I would still return to my argument of actual percentage of wins vs. actual percentage of losses. The casino wins 4.58% more hands than the player does in Blackjack, so I think the limited sample size is going to result in a player that should be more concerned about winning percentage than EV...if it's close.


You have to divide the win probability and loss probability by their sum in order to factor out the pushes. For example, on the Don't Pass bet in craps, normally:

Win probability = 0.479293
Lose probability = 0.492929
Push probability = 0.027778

If you just ignore the pushes, the win and loss probabilities only add up to 0.972222 or 97.2222%, so it is necessary to divide each of them by the sum:

Win probability = 0.479293/0.972222 = 0.492987 = 49.3%
Lose probability = 0.492929/0.972222 = 0.507013 = 50.7%

This adjusts them so that they sum to 100% instead of 97.2222%; this is what I meant by "factoring out" the pushes.

Quote: Mission146

In Blackjack, you're only 4.8% to be dealt a Natural, which is about 1/20 hands, which is also how many hands you'll be playing (20) if you win exactly half of the hands for which you have a Voucher on the table. Instead of 10:10, if you have one Natural but the casino wins 10 hands to your nine, then you end up with $95 on the $100...barring other outcomes such as splits/doubles. By the way, could you split/double with the Voucher? Would you do so with your cash or with another Voucher?


Blackjack math is not my forté. Even if it's something simple like calculating the probability of a blackjack, my inner voice tells me to stay away because I'm too likely to make a mistake. Regarding the rules, I don't know how they would handle splitting or doubling.

Quote: Mission146

I think Don't Pass is better because you only lose 1.36% more of the time than you win. In other words, you have a greater liklihood of splitting your wins/losses than with Blackjack.


Losing with the Don't Pass has a 1.4026% higher probability than winning after pushes are excluded.

Quote: Mission146

You're absolutely right about Baccarat, unless you can Lay Odds betting the Wrong Way in Craps, because then you're getting your own money out there (as opposed to the Freeplay) at 0% HE. I think that would mitigate the improvement of $0.01 in ER on the bets themselves.


I still say that a decent video poker game like 9/6 Jacks would be the best choice; not only is the ER higher, but you also have the opportunity to win a lot more than a mere 1:1.
rainman
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June 3rd, 2012 at 4:14:20 AM permalink
I think you guys are overlooking an important factor. In choice B it states each of the $10 vouchers continues to play until it looses that's pretty powerful on the blackjack table. So every time I lay a voucher and win that hand I get to replay it? Yes sir BJ table here I come.
AlanMendelson
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June 3rd, 2012 at 7:06:50 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

I think you guys are overlooking an important factor. In choice B it states each of the $10 vouchers continues to play until it looses that's pretty powerful on the blackjack table. So every time I lay a voucher and win that hand I get to replay it? Yes sir BJ table here I come.



Correct Rainman, you can keep playing the voucher as it continues to win. Each voucher is NOT a one time bet.

Personally, I am going to eliminate blackjack because I don't enjoy the game and I will not pretend to have mastered any blackjack strategy.

I'm really leaning towards craps here so a question:

If I bet a voucher on the pass line is there an expectation or statistic or some number that will tell me how many times I will get a payoff before I will lose it? Will I average one payoff per voucher or two? (Yes, I've been at tables when it was point-7 for ten players in a row. But I've also been at tables when a shooter threw three naturals in a row and then it was point-7.)

And the same quesiton for the dark side: If I bet a voucher on the Dont Pass line is there an expectation or statistic or some number that will tell me how many times I will get a payoff before I lose it?
rainman
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June 3rd, 2012 at 7:51:42 AM permalink
I don't think you can really calculate how many times anyone of your vouchers will payoff. That's the great unknown the part the gambling gods control, the lucky or not lucky part of the equation. One of the hard core math guys may be able to give you some sort of probability on it but its really just if your hot or not. You will only no that when your done.
JB
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June 3rd, 2012 at 12:41:35 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

I think you guys are overlooking an important factor. In choice B it states each of the $10 vouchers continues to play until it looses that's pretty powerful on the blackjack table. So every time I lay a voucher and win that hand I get to replay it? Yes sir BJ table here I come.


Sorry, but you're wrong. The averages I posted in my first reply have already taken into account the win-until-you-lose rule. Had you done the math yourself, you would know this.

Quote: rainman

I don't think you can really calculate how many times anyone of your vouchers will payoff. That's the great unknown the part the gambling gods control, the lucky or not lucky part of the equation. One of the hard core math guys may be able to give you some sort of probability on it but its really just if your hot or not. You will only no that when your done.


You can't predict the future, of course, but you can calculate the probability of each possible outcome and therefore the average expected win from each voucher. Once again, I have already posted the result of these calculations on page 1.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm really leaning towards craps here so a question:

If I bet a voucher on the pass line is there an expectation or statistic or some number that will tell me how many times I will get a payoff before I will lose it? Will I average one payoff per voucher or two? (Yes, I've been at tables when it was point-7 for ten players in a row. But I've also been at tables when a shooter threw three naturals in a row and then it was point-7.)

And the same quesiton for the dark side: If I bet a voucher on the Dont Pass line is there an expectation or statistic or some number that will tell me how many times I will get a payoff before I lose it?


Yes. The probability of n wins before a loss is pw^n * pl, where pw is the probability of winning and pl is the probability of losing.

Here are the stats for the Pass Line bet:

Wins
before
Loss
Probability Average
Resolved
Bets
Cash Won Average $
0 0.507071 0.507071 $0 $0.000000
1 0.249950 0.499900 $10 $2.499500
2 0.123208 0.369623 $20 $2.464154
3 0.060733 0.242931 $30 $1.821980
4 0.029937 0.149685 $40 $1.197477
5 0.014757 0.088541 $50 $0.737839
6 0.007274 0.050918 $60 $0.436443
7 0.003586 0.028685 $70 $0.250991
8 0.001767 0.015907 $80 $0.141395
9 0.000871 0.008712 $90 $0.078410
10 0.000429 0.004724 $100 $0.042945
11 0.000212 0.002540 $110 $0.023286
12 0.000104 0.001357 $120 $0.012522
13 0.000051 0.000720 $130 $0.006687
14 0.000025 0.000380 $140 $0.003550
15 0.000012 0.000200 $150 $0.001875
16 0.000006 0.000105 $160 $0.000986
17 0.000003 0.000055 $170 $0.000516
18 0.000001 0.000028 $180 $0.000269
19 0.000001 0.000015 $190 $0.000140
20 0.000000 0.000008 $200 $0.000073
21 0.000000 0.000004 $210 $0.000038
22 0.000000 0.000002 $220 $0.000019
23 0.000000 0.000001 $230 $0.000010
24 0.000000 0.000001 $240 $0.000005
25 0.000000 0.000000 $250 $0.000003
26 0.000000 0.000000 $260 $0.000001
27 0.000000 0.000000 $270 $0.000001
28 0.000000 0.000000 $280 $0.000000
Totals 1.000000 1.972112   $9.721116

It is possible for the voucher to win more than 28 times, but the probability is so small that the added value is negligible.

So overall you can expect 1.972112 resolved bets, which means 0.972112 wins before the inevitable loss. The column in the lower-right shows the average value of each voucher, which is $9.721116.

It may seem strange at first that this is less than the expected return from a $10 cash bet, but it's not. You are exposing the $10 to the house edge an average of 1.972112 times, so the expected loss is $10 * house edge * average number of exposures = $0.278884, hence the average value of the voucher being $10 - $0.278884 = $9.721116.

Here are the stats for the Don't Pass bet:

Wins
before
Loss
Probability Average
Resolved
Bets
Cash Won Average $
0 0.507013 0.507013 $0 $0.000000
1 0.249951 0.499902 $10 $2.499508
2 0.123223 0.369668 $20 $2.464450
3 0.060747 0.242988 $30 $1.822413
4 0.029948 0.149738 $40 $1.197901
5 0.014764 0.088582 $50 $0.738187
6 0.007278 0.050948 $60 $0.436700
7 0.003588 0.028705 $70 $0.251169
8 0.001769 0.015920 $80 $0.141512
9 0.000872 0.008720 $90 $0.078484
10 0.000430 0.004729 $100 $0.042991
11 0.000212 0.002543 $110 $0.023313
12 0.000104 0.001358 $120 $0.012538
13 0.000052 0.000721 $130 $0.006696
14 0.000025 0.000381 $140 $0.003555
15 0.000013 0.000200 $150 $0.001878
16 0.000006 0.000105 $160 $0.000987
17 0.000003 0.000055 $170 $0.000517
18 0.000001 0.000028 $180 $0.000270
19 0.000001 0.000015 $190 $0.000140
20 0.000000 0.000008 $200 $0.000073
21 0.000000 0.000004 $210 $0.000038
22 0.000000 0.000002 $220 $0.000019
23 0.000000 0.000001 $230 $0.000010
24 0.000000 0.000001 $240 $0.000005
25 0.000000 0.000000 $250 $0.000003
26 0.000000 0.000000 $260 $0.000001
27 0.000000 0.000000 $270 $0.000001
28 0.000000 0.000000 $280 $0.000000
Totals 1.000000 1.972336   $9.723361


You can expect an average total number of resolved bets of 1.972336, or 0.972336 wins before the loss. The end result is an average cash value of $9.723361 per voucher.

Rounded to cents, the average cash value of each $10 voucher is $9.72 regardless of whether it is placed on the Pass or the Don't Pass.

That is 97.2% of face value. If you went with a video poker game like 9/6 Jacks or Better, the average cash value is 99.54% of face value because the game has a lower house edge to begin with, and you only need to expose the $100 to the house edge once. The win-until-you-lose rule, while it sounds attractive, actually reduces the value of the table game voucher.

However, I do concede that you might consider craps a more enjoyable game than video poker, and if so, then certainly you should go with craps. The difference in expected return (for the entire $100) between 9/6 Jacks and the Don't Pass bet is only $2.31.
rainman
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June 3rd, 2012 at 2:10:31 PM permalink
Correct me if im wrong but 10 $10 vouchers does not provide enough exposure for any of the calculations to have any meaning on a session as small as that.
JB
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JB
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June 3rd, 2012 at 2:34:51 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

Correct me if im wrong but 10 $10 vouchers does not provide enough exposure for any of the calculations to have any meaning on a session as small as that.


How else are you going to look at it? If you always throw the math out the window using that as an excuse, never maximizing the potential of each situation, you will always be a loser in the long run.
rainman
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June 3rd, 2012 at 3:53:35 PM permalink
The maximizing the potential for each situation is ringing true for me. Thanks butter cup. ;)
JB
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JB
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June 3rd, 2012 at 4:42:08 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

The maximizing the potential for each situation is ringing true for me. Thanks butter cup. ;)


I don't know if you're on drugs or intoxicated or something, but I am not your "butter cup". If you have nothing of value to add to a discussion (which, unless I've missed it, I don't think you ever have), then please stay out of it. There are plenty of online forums that appreciate childish behavior and comments; this isn't one of them. Thanks.
AcesAndEights
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June 3rd, 2012 at 11:47:38 PM permalink
I know we've already got a couple people analyzing the math in this thread, but the Wiz has a nice page right here that describes the EV of various promotional chips/coupons. The $10 bet coupons you are eligible for look like the same thing as "non-neg" chips on his page.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
teddys
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June 8th, 2012 at 12:04:38 PM permalink
I agree with JB. Play it on video poker. The bet vouchers are too much of a pain to use and you might not get a full 3-2 on BJ's. (Some pit people can be strict about that).

I would dissent from JB and not recommend NSUD. Too much of the payback is tied up in the 4 deuces and if you don't hit those you'll likely get a 75-80% return. With 9-6 JoB or 8-5 BP you'll hit a lot of two pairs and get a better return, closer to 90% if you don't hit a royal (or even quads). That said, I'm on a horrible freeplay streak and have been getting 50-60% returns in my FP sessions. Maybe I should switch to video keno? :)

For lower variance and lower return find a single-zero video Roulette, good video blackjack, or lesser versions of both.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
AlanMendelson
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June 19th, 2012 at 8:35:51 PM permalink
Well, Im back from the promotion. Here's my report.

Actually my promotion amount was $2500 and I had a choice of $2500 of free slot or video poker play, or ten vouchers for $250 each. I just didn't want to be in a position of making individual bets of $250 each at craps -- either passline or dont pass, so I went with the free slot play.

I played 7/5 Bonus poker at the $2 level, since 8/5 Bonus was only available at the $5 level or higher.

I ran the $2500 through once and cashed out $2,135. Not bad. But I have a confession.

I picked up the free play Saturday morning... and when I arrived Friday night I went to a $2 7/5 bonus machine, stuck in $200, and hit an $8,000 royal. The cash was sitting in my pocket so I decided to play through the $2,135 again on 7/5 bonus at the $2 level.

On the "re-play" I actually got it up to about $2800 and that's when disaster hit and in a matter of about an hour it was all gone.

I played a little craps but had a net loss of $2600 at craps even though I did hit four numbers on the fire bet. $10 paid $250. That was my only good hand that I threw. I had too many "point sevens."

The hot roll of the night wasn't a fire bet winner, but a young girl who never threw dice before (yes a real craps virgin) went on a tear. No kidding she threw six 8's in a row (all soft) and held the dice for about twenty minutes even though she only made four passes, but three of the four points were 8s. I won close to two thousand on her hand alone, but in a matter of a few hours it was gone.

Table minimums were $10 or $25 and this was at Caesars. In early July I go back for a similar promotion.

My son had a $500 promotion. Took the slot play and quickly lost it playing 9/5 Double Double Bonus at the $1 level. We discussed the problem with DDB for the rest of the trip. Unless you hit something big you just get eaten alive.
JamieV
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June 19th, 2012 at 8:57:24 PM permalink
Hi Alan

How did you receive your promotion? Do you concentrate your play at one Harrahs property? I have reached Diamond this year and havent seen any significant offers from Rincon or Vegas. Just wondering how to get the most out of my gaming. Thanks.
Bang Biscuit!
EvenBob
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June 19th, 2012 at 8:58:07 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I actually got it up to about $2800 and that's when disaster hit and in a matter of about an hour it was all gone.

I played a little craps but had a net loss of $2600 at craps .

I won close to two thousand on her hand alone, but in a matter of a few hours it was gone..



Isn't that how its supposed to work when
the casino has the edge? Play, win, keep
playing, lose. Repeat.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AlanMendelson
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June 21st, 2012 at 4:34:05 AM permalink
Quote: JamieV

Hi Alan

How did you receive your promotion? Do you concentrate your play at one Harrahs property? I have reached Diamond this year and havent seen any significant offers from Rincon or Vegas. Just wondering how to get the most out of my gaming. Thanks.



I play almost exclusively at Caesars but the promo was good at any of the LV properties owned by Caesars. Over the past five years, Ive played at a Caesars property almost exclusively in Vegas.

I play at Rincon but while the "tier score" and "reward points" from Rincon are good in LV, the promotions from LV are not connected to play at Rincon and vice-versa.

The more you play at one property the better the offers from that property. But don't play for comps and don't play for offers -- don't get sucked into that. I am very selective about what offers I take. Usually they have to have a high "cash value" such as free play or gift cards to Macys or Shell gas or something like that.

About every six months they review "play" and then update their mailers. My son currently has about 50,000 tier points, or half way to 7-Stars but still gets very low offers based on play from a previous six-month period. So we have to ask for his offer to be increased based on his current play. The next review is supposed to start for October offers and hopefull his new play level will be reflected in those offers.
JamieV
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June 21st, 2012 at 11:12:00 AM permalink
Thanks Alan

I don't play for comps but it does help with the bottom-line. I tend to only visit Rincon on double point day or promotional days such as the slot tourneys or gift cards. I have some offers coming up in August in Vegas which include the shopping spree and electronic giveaway. Thanks for the reply Alan.
Bang Biscuit!
buzzpaff
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June 21st, 2012 at 1:48:39 PM permalink
JB " If you have nothing of value to add to a discussion (which, unless I've missed it, I don't think you ever have), then please stay out of it."

Such a rule would surely decimate this and most other on-line forums, don't you think ?
Doc
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June 21st, 2012 at 1:55:36 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Such a rule would surely decimate this and most other on-line forums, don't you think ?


I don't. There are gracious plenty posts in this forum that contribute real value. It would be easier to draw the benefits of that value if some of the crud posts were not here.
buzzpaff
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June 21st, 2012 at 2:05:44 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

I don't. There are gracious plenty posts in this forum that contribute real value. It would be easier to draw the benefits of that value if some of the crud posts were not here.



But who is to be the arbitrator to place value on input? I am constantly amazed at how stupid some people are.
There is a big difference between stupidity and ignorance. Hopefully most of my post fall in the latter category.
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