Thread Rating:

DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 7581
December 14th, 2019 at 12:39:35 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

yeah, horrible bad negative variance for them.

a week after that happened, i was on a caribbean island where locals were offering volcano rim tour hikes.
i asked about concern for it erupting because of what happened to the tourists in new zealand.
they said their volcano has been dormant for 50+ years. (yet, i've read you can still smell the sulfur in the air when you're near it.)
yeah, i passed on that. (but i probably would have taken it if i was there before the new zealand story.)



If you knew the odds of it erupting the day you took the tour, what odds would you find acceptable to do the tour? I would be good with 1000-1.
Order from chaos
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 310
  • Posts: 8566
December 14th, 2019 at 12:52:37 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

If you knew the odds of it erupting the day you took the tour, what odds would you find acceptable to do the tour? I would be good with 1000-1.

Good question and I might agree with 1000:1 for myself, but I am kind of inclined to up it an order of magnitude though due to the horrible nature of the deaths and injury that would be caused by scalding, death being possibly preferable to survival.

I do not agree with the idea that we have to live lives without risk. That is, for adults who are fully informed, and I do wonder if the cruise knew the risks and informed people properly.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
December 15th, 2019 at 1:13:05 AM permalink
If I knew the eruption would blow the top off the crater and cook me, I would need 3,000-1. If it was going to be fountains of lava like in Hawaii, that maybe I could outrun, I'd be okay with 500 to 1.

The dumbest thing I heard was that a recovery team was sent to the island to pick up dead bodies. They had to fly into the active eruption danger zone, wear special breathing aparatus, because apparently one sniff of the volcanic gas is lethal, and spend several hours there at risk...to recover DEAD bodies. What kind of value do Australian authorities put on live employees, that they would put them at that much risk for bodies that will be just as dead when the active phase of the eruption is over?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
December 15th, 2019 at 3:54:13 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

The dumbest thing I heard was that a recovery team was sent to the island to pick up dead bodies. They had to fly into the active eruption danger zone, wear special breathing aparatus, because apparently one sniff of the volcanic gas is lethal, and spend several hours there at risk...to recover DEAD bodies. What kind of value do Australian authorities put on live employees, that they would put them at that much risk for bodies that will be just as dead when the active phase of the eruption is over?



This is factually incorrect.

It is not some volcanic gas. The eruption was mainly hot ash that seared all exposed flesh irrespective of accompanying fumes. First flyover revealed no signs of life, but the event was over.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
December 15th, 2019 at 8:43:51 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

This is factually incorrect.

It is not some volcanic gas. The eruption was mainly hot ash that seared all exposed flesh irrespective of accompanying fumes. First flyover revealed no signs of life, but the event was over.



This article from the New York Times tells a different story (emphasis mine):
Quote: New York Times.com

WHAKATANE, New Zealand — The bodies were more than a quarter-mile from shore, some on higher ground, on a scorched, moonlike landscape shrouded in toxic gas. The troops had about three hours’ worth of oxygen, more than enough, they thought, to complete the mission.

But soon after setting foot on White Island, they knew they would need every second they could get



But the NYT isn't immune from sensationalizing a story, so I'm not surprised.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

  • Jump to: