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darkoz
darkoz 
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April 10th, 2022 at 8:14:48 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: tuttigym

And did your results mirror what coachbelly asserts, i.e., $5k in and only $200 in losses on average?



I didn't make that assertion...another member reported a $200 loss as his actual results.

His assertion is that his loss of $200 was a result of bad luck, as the expected loss for a $5K wager was only $100.

Quote: billryan

The club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks.



Quote: billryan

If you are playing at $1.00 a hand and you play 1,000 hands, your expected loss on a 98% machine is about $20. It took a bit of bad luck to lose the $200 while obtaining the 5,000 points.


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For me, there is a problem with the semantics often used by various posters when talking about gaming results. There never seems to be the reality of most all forms of gaming when communicating actual occurrence. The focus always seems to be on the EXPECTED rather than the probable or actual. I believe that casinos cannot survive with the so-called "EXPECTED" 1% or 2+% profits proliferated here. The casino business has exploded with operations throughout the states (not all states). Their expenditures and budgets are huge. The competition for patrons is extreme. I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms. Casino exec's crunch the numbers all the time, and it does not seem likely they would allow so many of these very low expectation machines to continue within their operations and offer systems. What I am reading here seems to be misleading simply because so many players that I have witnessed just plain lose.

tuttigym
link to original post



If I understand payback correctly, it's per machine, not player.

For example, let's say a slot has a 90% payback.

Player A sits down and loses $1000, then leaves.

Now player B sits down and quickly wins $900.

The machine has paid back 90%. But player A has lost big. Player B has had good day. Next time the tables will be reversed

But the machine has returned 90%.

Of course this return may not even be realized for months. For example a game with a progressive worth ten grand will not hit it's true return until that singular hit.

That's the way I understand it to work.

In this manner lots of people lose and a few get lucky.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
DRich
DRich
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April 11th, 2022 at 5:56:52 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms.



I don't know who you are hearing that from? In my work I dealt with Slot Directors almost daily and I can not think of one who believes VP is a big money maker relative to the rest of the slot machines. A typical slot machine now has a hold of 10%-12% where a VP game would be closer to 4%.
Order from chaos
100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 11th, 2022 at 6:26:19 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I still prefer deuces. I'm sure someone could debunk my opinion with math, but my notes say it usually works better for me than JoB or BP, and VBJ is problematic at the properties I visit.
link to original post

Why do you prefer deuces to convert freeplay into cash?
Variance of JoB/BP = 20
variance of DW = 25
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Dieter
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Dieter
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April 11th, 2022 at 6:54:07 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Dieter

I still prefer deuces. I'm sure someone could debunk my opinion with math, but my notes say it usually works better for me than JoB or BP, and VBJ is problematic at the properties I visit.
link to original post

Why do you prefer deuces to convert freeplay into cash?
Variance of JoB/BP = 20
variance of DW = 25
link to original post



My notes say it generally works better for me.
Variance is not the enemy. A fickle beast, to be sure, but not the enemy.

Could just be that I find JoB & Co. tedious.
May the cards fall in your favor.
darkoz
darkoz 
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Thanks for this post from:
tyler498camapl
April 11th, 2022 at 7:22:15 AM permalink
Part thirteen:

To recap, while awaiting trial for defiant trespassing set for April 2019, we have returned to the incidents in Pennsylvania, specifically the Valley Forge in November 2016.

I had set up 27 cards and split them into two groups. One group of thirteen had two cards from the same person and got flagged and by the second day I was caught, backroomed, had to prove to police I had permission from the cardholder to use the cards and was not evicted nor arrested. Basically released and told not to do it again.

If you haven't figured it out yet, the VERY NEXT DAY I returned to the Valley Forge and was doing it again.

But first things first!

This was a big money operation. Maybe not MDawg big but quite large for the average person. I had invested approximately $60,000 in seed money. And I wasn't leaving that behind.

At the very least I was hopeful to recoup my money or minimize my losses before the operation was completely killed. That would depend on how I handled going back inside the Valley Forge and how they handled their investigation.

And make no bones about it, they were going to further investigate. For one thing, they would want to understand where the freeplay originated from. Their first suspicion would probably be an insider employee uploading offers. That of course would be illegal. They would make certain the offers were legit. They would figure out how I obtained the offers and that would probably lead them to my other batch of cards they hadn't yet noticed. They would see the same activities and put it all together. They would move quickly to deactivate those cards perhaps if they saw my continued use.

As I said in the last part, the Valley Forge was now a hotzone and I was at war.

So, just what did they see? Thanks to the Golden Nugget dossier I actually know. The Valley Forge documents were included.

Here is one page which we will return to in another post but I have singled out what freeplay activity they observed on November 6th and 8th, 2016. (Sorry for the sideways image. That's how it was delivered electronically to me.)



Right off the bat you can see some discrepancy. For example on November 8th, eleven cards each with at least $400 freeplay doesn't add up to $4050. The amount of $4430 on the 6th is more proper. The odd $30 probably a one time birthday offer for one of the cardholders.

Casino surveillance is almost always reactive versus proactive. They don't want to be searching for a face amongst the crowd who may show up anytime or not at all so they flag the cards and wait for their use which will trigger an alarm or notification on their consoles.

From the document, we can see they flagged the eleven cards to activate when freeplay was downloaded BUT not when it was inserted into a slot machine nor when freeplay was only activated and not played. Most likely this was again due to reactive thinking. They didn't want to zoom in and check all the machines for activities. Easier to rely on the software. The flag had to notate the amount of the download so it was the download that was flagged. They probably also didn't imagine someone would activate the freeplay and leave it behind for the next day.

As a result, what they did see isn't as interesting as what they didn't see. They didn't see me take freeplay from 14 unflagged cards on November the 7th. They didn't even see me activate the eleven flagged cards on the 7th. And because they were patiently waiting for the download flags to signal, they didn't even notice I was inside the casino on the 7th.

As I mentioned in a prior post, the Golden Nugget really did me a solid when they sent over that dossier.

So, on November 6th I made $4,678.13 (at some point I did some slots obviously for such an amount but primarily I did VBJ. I would get a near 100% return without fear of winning a jackpot on freeplay. Also speed! $50 a hand of VBJ meant I turned freeplay around in eight hands. I'm fast at VBJ. Five minutes per card was pretty much all I needed including download time and switching seats as I never stood at the same seat and swapped cards)

On November 7th I made another $4000+ not recorded by Valley Forge and on November 8th their records show I made $4,198.31.

And with the freeplay being offered five days a week, I pretty much made over ,$4,000 five days a week!

WHOA WHOA WHOA! Calm down! It's hard to understand what you are screaming at through your computer. Now, what did you just say?

Oh, $4,000 five days a week equals $20,000 a week? Yes, that's what I thought you said. It was hard to understand you!

With a $60,000 seed investment, the first three weeks would really be a recoupment period and not profit. The entire play should have lasted eight weeks which would leave the cards drained of offers. And that meant technically I only saw profit of $20,000 for five weeks.

But I always said I make $20,000 a week. But not every week!

Now of course, the Valley Forge was aware of the offers and their being used. I figured I didn't have long before they cancelled the offers. The trick was to grab as much as possible before that happened. Perhaps I might only suffer a small loss or if lucky, break even.

I hoped my daughter and son-in-law could help extend that time as they were unfamiliar faces at the Valley Forge. They had stepped in before under similar circumstances and It made sense as they lived not thirty minutes away.

But my daughter was unreceptive. "Dad, I warned you the Valley Forge was too small!"

I reminded her I had successfully hit them twice before with zero problems.

"Yes but now it's hot. I'm not risking it. I don't want my husband put in harm's way. You say they have on-site police? Hell no, he could get killed!"

I felt that was a bit dramatic. "They will just insist you accompany them to the backroom and phone the people who's cards you use. It's no big deal "

"Dad, that's what they do with you! They see a middle-aged balding and yes, short, non-threatening WHITE MALE. With my husband they will see a young, tall, muscular, threatening, BLACK MALE! Do you know what happens to black men having confrontations with Pennsylvania state troopers?"

And to this day only one member of my team has ever actually been physically beaten caught using player's cards and that was indeed my son-in-law. That doesn't come into this story but it was already a past event in 2016. So my daughter wasn't being totally paranoid.

That left the infamous masks. I had four sitting in my closet from past wars. They were last resort. I had four different personas I could be but really preferred the last purchased mask. These weren't pre-measured. One size fits all. And I kept buying new masks until I found the best fit.

The other masks wouldn't line up perfectly with both my eyes and nose. Having to choose I lined up the eyes leaving my nostrils snug against latex. This had led to some admittedly comical situations like when I sneezed a very healthy dose of snot which having nowhere to go, smooshed between the latex and my skin. But that also doesn't figure in this story.

Now I had a tactical decision to make. I was booked into the hotel of the Valley Forge that evening. Too close to cancel but losing a night didn't matter.

The issue was Valley Forge was in the middle of nowhere and I don't drive. I needed a private place to change into the mask. I sure wasn't wearing it for four hours from New York and I couldn't walk into the casino bathroom and come out with a different face. Not if as I suspected they were going to follow my every move.

But checking into their hotel under my own name? In a hotzone war? It was practically announcing my arrival. Madness.

Now the Valley Forge hotel wasn't the same company. It was a chain hotel at that time connected by a long hallway to the Valley Forge gaming resort. It was unlikely surveillance monitored the hotel like the gaming floor

I took the plunge and decided to check into the hotel in my own name.

Done up in my mask disguise, I walked through the halls connecting the hotel lobby with the gaming area! It was the very next day after I had been caught! The second set of cards had the offers activated and soon to be expired plus the current day of offers. Everything was there, it was all good. I turned over the freeplay as expected.

Now it was just a question of how many days until the so-called banhammer fell. And how it would fall. Would the cards be pin locked one day? Would the offers be taken down?

Would I feel a tap on my shoulder and discover I was surrounded by security and police?

Every morning I checked to see if the offers were still listed on the website. And for that first week there weren't any issues

But I was operating at half steam. Remember I had a whole set of cards confiscated and pin locked. I could bring those players down but those cards might be flagged for tracking purposes. I might make the undetected cards flagged if they observed me in disguise using flagged cards whose pins had been unlocked.

On the other hand, those cards working might be worthless any day. And it was taking me twice as long now to reach my break even point. It was basically a coin flip. Damned if you do, damned if you don't!

The offers were just sitting there and I couldn't access them. It felt like leaving money behind. I decided to unlock the pins.

By the second weekend of November I had brought down the crew. They were warned at the rewards desk that they had been pin locked due to allowing use by another individual. Not to do it again.

Everyone agrees to use their own cards, and then promptly hands them to me anyway. Well not so out in the open, lol. I told them to go gamble that days freeplay, an added bonus for what I had to pay them for coming down. They also took their once weekly free food offer, a $150 voucher

I even joined them for dinner at the Valley Forge restaurant. Usually association with your crew was a no-no but these people were already associated with me. In fact, we were professed buddies. It would have been more suspect if we avoided each other.

Right in the Valley Forge restaurant they handed me their player's cards under the table and I reciprocated with cash payments.

And so I was once again taking all the offers. How long before the Valley Forge had AP fatigue? I didn't know. Each day was an adventure of sorts.

Thanksgiving weekend came and still I activated and played 25 players cards each with $200 daily freeplay double upped to $400 when I took the offers. By this point I was approaching break even on my investment, only a few days off schedule.

My girlfriend joined me that Thanksgiving Friday for the weekend. "Maybe they just don't care! Maybe they moved on?" She surmised.

I assured her that wasn't possible. It was insane. And yet, this operation, this war if you will was the most non-confrontational war I ever experienced.

And then came my worst nightmare under those conditions.

It's funny how what is a disaster for an AP is everyone else's fantasy.

On a lousy $2 slots wager, I nonetheless won a $2000 top award, against all odds jackpot.

I sat there staring at the blue message that read "handpay, call attendant"

Sat there in a latex mask with a face that didn't match the image on my state ID with a player's card not my own on a wager from freeplay in a casino I had already been backroomed in with a warning not to ever multi-card again!

What's an Advantage Player to do?

To be continued
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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April 11th, 2022 at 7:26:40 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: tuttigym

I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms.



I don't know who you are hearing that from? In my work I dealt with Slot Directors almost daily and I can not think of one who believes VP is a big money maker relative to the rest of the slot machines. A typical slot machine now has a hold of 10%-12% where a VP game would be closer to 4%.
link to original post



Tuttigym said slots including VP and VBJ and he is correct.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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April 11th, 2022 at 8:00:46 AM permalink
Darkoz thank you for mentioning the $60,000 of seed money.

Asking how much per card I guess would be too much to ask?
billryan
billryan
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April 11th, 2022 at 8:05:59 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: tuttigym

I am told that slots are their biggest money maker including VP & VBJ in all their forms.



I don't know who you are hearing that from? In my work I dealt with Slot Directors almost daily and I can not think of one who believes VP is a big money maker relative to the rest of the slot machines. A typical slot machine now has a hold of 10%-12% where a VP game would be closer to 4%.
link to original post



People are saying that. Many people.......
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
darkoz
darkoz 
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April 11th, 2022 at 8:08:25 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Darkoz thank you for mentioning the $60,000 of seed money.

Asking how much per card I guess would be too much to ask?
link to original post



Approximately $2000 on average. 27 cards. There were other associated costs such as paying people to get the cards, the aforementioned annual membership which paid for lunch, gas, tolls (no I didn't make card holders take the bus :)

Remember two cards didn't have offers, due to being the same person. I was out the seed money on those cards from the getgo.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
billryan
billryan
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April 11th, 2022 at 8:10:45 AM permalink
OMG..., now we are going to have to read that you need $60,000 in seed money to play these tricks.

Maybe that is better off. Some people just can't handle the truth.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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