billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 175
  • Posts: 9931
February 2nd, 2020 at 7:11:36 AM permalink
I have $20 that says there will be a safety, a two point conversion and overtime.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 762
Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
February 2nd, 2020 at 7:45:37 AM permalink
Absolutely love Kelce over 5.5 receptions at -185 or better.
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 1767
February 2nd, 2020 at 8:58:25 AM permalink
Evidently President Trump is hosting a Superbowl party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida. Many tweets during the game seems inevitable.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7192
February 2nd, 2020 at 9:32:44 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I have $20 that says there will be a safety, a two point conversion and overtime.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.



Fair odds 200-1 or so? I think even longer. I think the safety makes OT less likely. I think a positive 2 point conversion correlates with OT. The safety against OT.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 175
  • Posts: 9931
February 2nd, 2020 at 11:22:10 AM permalink
Wouldn't a safety and two point conversion break the same way?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 95
  • Posts: 4463
February 2nd, 2020 at 11:47:00 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Wouldn't a safety and two point conversion break the same way?


No, because a safety is a two-point change, whereas a 2-point conversion replaces what would, presumably, be a 1-point conversion, so in effect it is only a 1-point change.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 902
February 2nd, 2020 at 1:14:52 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I have $20 that says there will be a safety, a two point conversion and overtime.
Looking for the best odds if someone wants to make an offer.


If you haven't had the bet yet, or if someone hasn't already offered you a better deal, I can do 600/1 (all three events must happen for you to win)

As alternatives, I am also offering the props below:
---
"Doubles"

" A two point conversion made and a safety" (both must occur for you to win) = 45/1

"A two point conversion made and game goes to overtime" (both must occur for you to win) = 40/1

"A safety and the game goes to overtime" (both must occur for you to win) = 180/1

---
Single bet offers:

" A two point conversion made" = +250

" Safety scored in game" = +1200

" Game goes to overtime" = +1250

---
Note 1: IMO, there is a "medium correlation" between "A two point conversion made" and " Game going to overtime", so that is why if you multiply the "single bet offer" odds together you will NOT get the same figure as what I am offering for the related "multi-bet(s)".

Note 2: IMO, there is a "negative correlation" between "a safety" and " Game going to overtime", so that is why if you multiply the "single bet offer" odds together you will NOT get the same figure as what I am offering for the related "multi-bet(s)".

Note 3: I used the link here >>> https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_2 <<< to work these odds out (click on "nfl props" to find the odds).

---
General Terms:

My max "combined liabilty" for all the above offers is $15,000 (if billryan rejects the first offer at the top of this post).

My max "combined liabilty" for all offers is $5,000 (if billryan accepts and has $20 on the first offer at the top of this post).

billryan has an hour from this post to accept or reject the "first offer" (the one he specifically requested).

If billryan does NOT reply to this post after 1 hour, then the offers revert to "first come first served" (in other words, anyone can take them).

Odds are not negotiable (in other words, they are the max odds I am willing to offer)

Preferred Method of Payment: Paypal (skrill or bitcoin is also acceptable).

Settlement: within two weeks***

***: If you win, I will pay you in full or $2000 every two weeks until my liability is settled (whichever is less).

----
Update:

so you know that I am not a "welcher", I will pay you up to $500 within 24 hours of you giving me the relevant "method of payment" details, if you win the bet.

---
Update 2:

I have increased some of the "multi-bet" odds after further reflection (see "note 2" in the middle of this post for further details/reasoning).

---
Update 3 (about 217 pm, Pac time)

All offers open for everyone now.
Offers will close when they are either taken or 320 pm, Pacific time (whichever comes first).


---
Update 4 (about 322 pm, Pac time)

All offfers rescinded, as it is after 320 pm (there were no takers).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 2, 2020
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2088
February 2nd, 2020 at 1:38:14 PM permalink
Seeing a prop: tied at halftime +850. That feels high to me given the -1.5 point line.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 273
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:03:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets?



Does a 'retweet' count? He has a few of those within the last 24 hours. 29 min until kickoff.

The only two recommended props available via FanDuel in IN were:
Tied after first score -> No @ 100
Successful 2-pt conversion -> No @ -330

horrible
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 273
February 2nd, 2020 at 3:58:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why did I let you guys talk me out of betting over 1/2 Tweets?



Over . sigh .

  • Jump to: