michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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January 31st, 2020 at 3:42:34 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You're welcome. I certainly bet more as the odds bet better. Roughly, in proportion to my advantage.



Can I ask how you went about figuring out the fair odds for the game not being tied after 0-0?
Mission146
Mission146
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January 31st, 2020 at 4:13:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This has been a lousy year for prop hunting for me. William Hill had some juicy bets, but the lines had all moved against me by the time I saw them. A few still had value. The following bets are all I have made so far:

Bet Odds Fair Location
Last score touchdown -170 -234 William Hill
First score touchdown -170 -212 William Hill
No KC touchdown in 4th qtr 190 173 William Hill
49'ers first score TD -160 -196 William Hill
Game never tied after 0-0 110 -107 William Hill
Team with more field goals -- 49'ers 120 100 William Hill
No safety -800 -1548 Golden Nugget
No overtime -1100 -1614 Golden Nugget
No 2-pt conversion -270 -485 Circa


I'm sure there are other things I could bet, but I haven't been out much this year looking.



In general, Kansas City (and Coach Andy Reid) is extremely aggressive when it comes to going for it on fourth down, particularly early in the game. Conversely, from the three year period encompassing the 2016-2018 seasons:

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-fourth-downs-eagles-doug-pederson/

San Francisco was by far the least aggressive team to go for it on fourth with more than four minutes remaining in the game. (Only more than four minutes is considered because, if a team is down with less than four minutes to go, but is within reach, going for it is a near-certainty anyway).

This season was a little different with San Francisco going for it on 4th 12 times compared to 10 for Kansas City.

However, we have to look at the fourth down situations:

Indianapolis @ Kansas City: Conversion Successful, 4th & 1 KC 47, 3:00 remaining in 2nd Quarter

(That one is interesting not because they gave up a reasonable field goal chance, but because it would have put IND in position to get in FG range with just one first down had the conversion failed)

Indianapolis @ Kansas City: Conversion Failed, 4th & 1, KC 34, 5:06 Remaining in Game

(This DID set the Colts up for a Field Goal, which was a highly questionable choice, because IND was up 16-10 at the time this play was called, so most coaches would have hoped to punt here and get the ball back)

Kansas City @ Denver: Conversion Successful, 4th and 1 from DEN 5 10:00 2nd Quarter

(This was one where KC could have just taken a chip shot field goal, and it would have made sense score wise as they were up 10-6 at the time of this play. While the conversion was successful, they did end up taking a field goal rather than go for it on 4th and Goal, perhaps because Mahomes got injured on this play)

Minnesota @ Kansas City: Conversion Successful, 4th and 1 from MIN 7, 6:13 2nd Quarter

(In a tie ball game, KC would forego a chip shot field goal to go for it on fourth down. Once again, they ended up taking a FG on the drive anyway)

Kansas City @ New England: Conversion Successful, 4th and 1, NE 33, 3rd Quarter 11:10 remaining

(Ahead 20-7, Kansas City makes the bizarre decision not to attempt a field goal here and instead goes for it. They would take a field goal later in the drive)


----------

Cleveland @ San Francisco 4th and 1 Conversion Successful, 2:05 2nd Quarter CLE 27

(San Francisco was ahead 14-3, so either decision kind of makes sense)

SF @ Arizona: Conversion Successful, 4th and GOAL on the 1 with second left in the second quarter

(Ahead 14-7 already, you can make an argument for either)

San Francisco @ Baltimore: Conversion Successful, First Drive of Game BAL 33 4th & 2

Not Included

Any other 4th Down plays not listed were not listed for one of the following reasons:

1.) Less than four minutes to go in game.

2.) "No Man's Land," play, not really a reasonable likely field goal, but too far in opponent's territory to really consider punting.

3.) Botched snap/hold/fumble on FG attempt. (Counts as turnover on downs)

4.) Botched """"""""""""""""""""""""punt.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Andy Reid has a history of being super aggressive on fourth downs and we saw it also this year as he took a pass on three chip shot field goals and also went for it on 4th (deliberately) deep in their own territory. Even SF's most aggressive 4th Down play calls (with one exception) at least make sense on some level. Andy Reid just likes to try to surprise and he trusts his offense.

On the other hand, Kansas City is 34/38 on FG attempts compared to 30/39 for SF. Still, it remains so that Andy Reid is not one inclined to, "Take the points."

Anyway, I don't think it's a bad bet, but I wouldn't put the fair odds at exactly 100 given Andy Reid's history of passing on chip shots.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 31st, 2020 at 7:25:13 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Anyway, I don't think it's a bad bet, but I wouldn't put the fair odds at exactly 100 given Andy Reid's history of passing on chip shots.



Those are very good comments and I didn't analyze it nearly to that degree. That's why I don't do player props or get into the behavior of a particular team. I am just a numbers man. I figure in the NFL teams are smart enough to know when the odds favor attempting a field goal and attempting a fourth down. Then again, I am always screaming at the TV when teams don't go for it on 4 & short early in the game. If KC will lean towards going for the 4th down, I respect that, and it should have factored into my calculus.

I think for a while my signature line here was "When in doubt, go for the fourth down."
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
7craps
7craps
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January 31st, 2020 at 8:00:17 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I am just a numbers man.

some numbers
38-24-36
a very funny movie
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 1st, 2020 at 5:12:46 PM permalink
Here is an interesting prop at Boyd casinos:



I'm told there has been a 16-19 or 19-16 score only 4 times in the 256 games this season.

I had to lay 15 to 1 this morning.

Assuming a 252/256 chance of winning, my EV is (252/256)*(16/15) = +5%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 1st, 2020 at 5:17:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is an interesting prop at Boyd casinos:



I'm told there has been a 16-19 or 19-16 score only 4 times in the 256 games this season.

I had to lay 15 to 1 this morning.

Assuming a 252/256 chance of winning, my EV is (252/256)*(16/15) = +5%.



Wow. How often has any team even had 16? Itís not a common score
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 1st, 2020 at 5:24:10 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Wow. How often has any team even had 16? Itís not a common score



I believe this counts for the seconds between a touchdown and extra point. So I could see 16 as 7+3+6 or 3+7+6. It's the 19 that I think is the tougher number to hit.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
Ayecarumba
February 1st, 2020 at 5:26:12 PM permalink
I'm adding some more to my prop suggestions.

Bet Odds Fair Location
Last score touchdown -160 -234 William Hill
First score touchdown -170 -212 William Hill
No KC touchdown in 4th qtr 190 173 William Hill
49'ers first score TD -160 -196 William Hill
Game never tied after 0-0 110 -107 William Hill
Team with more field goals -- 49'ers 120 100 William Hill
No safety -800 -1548 Golden Nugget
No overtime -900 -1614 Stations
No 2-pt conversion -270 -485 Circa
KC first score TD -170 -207 William Hill
Total punts over 7 -105 -115 Stations
Score ever 16-19 or 19-16 -- NO -1500 -6300 Boyd


If you want just one tip, bet first score is a touchdown. Try to get -160, but -170 should be easy to find. If you want more, last score is a touchdown and the first score of each individual team is a touchdown. As always, field goals are very bad.

This is a very rare time I'm betting the over on anything (total punts), but it was a small marginal bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 1st, 2020 at 6:34:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I believe this counts for the seconds between a touchdown and extra point. So I could see 16 as 7+3+6 or 3+7+6. It's the 19 that I think is the tougher number to hit.



19 is FG FG TD TD before second extra point.
I think you have a GREAT bet on NO 19-16
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 1st, 2020 at 6:55:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I(snip)
If you want just one tip, bet first score is a touchdown. Try to get -160, but -170 should be easy to find. If you want more, last score is a touchdown and the first score of each individual team is a touchdown. As always, field goals are very bad. (snip)


Below are the bets that I think have "good value":
1. first score a TD, i haVe a double going for the AFC v NFC game into the Superbowl: $400 @ $2.56 (both legs were $1.60).
2. first score a TD: 1,450 @ $1.60
3. 49ers alternative handicap (-2.5): $400 @ $2.45.
4. 49ers alternative handicap (-5.5): $200 @ $3.10.
5. No 2-pt conversion made: $2,800 @ -280.

"For fun bets":
(i) Mahomes 350 (or more) yards in total, $20 @ $3.75.
(ii) Under 50 (alt total): $30 @ $2.40.
(iii) Coin toss called wrong and coin lands on heads: I took the no*** for $52 @ -260

***: In other words, I win the bet if the coin toss is called correctly, and/or/ if the coin lands on tails.

Note: the bets that are in "Decimal" odds were with an Australian bookie, and the bets in "American" odds were with an overseas bookie.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 2, 2020

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