Four Card Poker SessionAt this point, maybe I should believe in superstitions- the streak continues relating to my particular lucky charm:
And additionally, I taunted the Gambling gods with this- but thankfully they had mercy:
So, while I had some Bonus Bets to play, I didn't have nearly the amount I have been getting but felt the need to play high-limit Four Card Poker this weekend. Things started off a bit shaky- actually downright horrible: in probably my first 8 hands I only got a pair of Aces which got beat! I proceeded to take a small break and then came back with vengeance: winning on a flush and three straights. As players of the game know, when you have a good hand and triple your bet, you really, really need to win those and not get a "bad beat" in order to come out ahead.
And then, it happened: I get dealt trips and buried the last card and the dealer proceeds to turn over a higher set! At this point, I'm of course more than a little disappointed but was taking it in stride(probably was just more stunned) so I ask the dealer to squeeze the last card out- and wouldn't you know it- the first card she squeezes was my *fifth* card and I look at her and say, "That was the fifth card, wasn't it?!" Much to my delight, my quads took home the top award for the table for 10.8k! I tipped the dealer $250 and afterwards kept it low-key, even winning on the slots! It's nice to have these days every now and then, although knowing the math and having achieved the best win possible, my future wagers on four-card will be a little less, I imagine...
Congratulations, that win is HUGE!!!
Thanks! While I've had larger runs coming back from deficits, I think this was my second-biggest net-win for a session, which is how I keep track. I've had quads twice in the game now, although not at max bet the first time, although I was still playing black chips. I've been extremely lucky to catch some good hands when betting big, which has allowed me to keep my head above water playing these -EV games. It's still a bit hard to believe and quite lucky- considering the number of total hands played at that level before catching the hand...
Gambling on Gambling CompaniesAttempting to purchase some SHFL June 15 Call contracts at .55 cents. If the trade executes, let there be good earnings and news after the close...
Hope you missed buying those calls. In a couple of days some far out 10's should look good.
That wasn't meant to be a shot.... going into the money with more time just seems a little better play. After reading my first comment, didn't sound very good.
Unfortunately, my order did go through- so I'm officially in ultra-long-long-long shot mode at this point. It's a shame, as the market is now rebounding, which I was counting on as part of the original equation, so if they just would have beat by 10% or so, things would have worked out in my favor. But they didn't and now here we are. I do think the sell-off was over-blown, and can't understand why anyone would want to be short at this point. We just closed up $.87 today, which isn't a bad turn-around from the blood-bath yesterday although I would have liked to see $1+ gain. We also got an upgrade. Hopefully some good news out of the Analyst meeting tomorrow, though. Time will tell.
Outside of my gamble this month, I haven't generally done so with SHFL maintaining a rather large stock position for the long-term instead- although longer-term 10 LEAPS certainly wouldn't be a bad play, imho. I think the current CEO is doing a good job, although I certainly wouldn't mind a little proactive action in the form of a buyback or a small dividend...
Wouldn't count on dividend or stock buyback. Stock has a great risk reward ratio. Steady revenue stream that should remain stable even in bad market. As states look for more tax revenue and start to turn to internet gambling SHFL should be in a great position to capitalize. Just sit back and wait. Even if a couple of years before anything developes, still very little risk.
I'm in for the long-haul unless something very bad changes their story- no rush on this one. And I (unfortunately!) tend to agree with you: I don't get any sense of either a buyback or dividend on the horizon, although in today's market, either could be a smart move. With no debt(although the new offices and Ongame acquisition will cost money over the next year) and increasing recurring revenue, they're on solid financial footing to make moves, imho...
Upcoming Trip StrategyNext weekend I'll have a total of $2000 Free Play and $1600 Bonus Bets, both of which are very much above the norm for me. After some thought and advice from others, here is my current strategy:
1. In $500 increments up to $2000, I'll play this machine, alternating $27, $36, $45 plays:
The goal is to get the Bonus game, hopefully early on, for an additional 12 spins at twice the standard payout values. With up to 60 spins from the $2000, I should get at least one bonus game. If I am lucky enough to get the bonus game, I will cease playing the particular machine. Anything left of the initial $2000 I'll put toward dollar spin poker, jacks or better, cycling through the available line bets.
2. For the Bonus Bets, I'll likely request 16 $100 coupons and play (everyone laugh!) Four Card Poker. If they allow more than one bonus bet to be placed at a time, I will also get a portion in $50s. I will likely play $50 of my own money in the Aces/Up bet and $100 Bonus bet for the ante. I will likely deviate from standard strategy and only triple Aces or better to reduce my risk and allow more chances at big hands. Any hand with Aces or better I'll use my own money and any hand 3s to Ks I'll try and use a Bonus Bet if they allow it for the "Raise" bet. I'll play for up to 16 hands, and I should get 3 hands of Aces or better and consequently 3 hands paying $450 or more assuming the dealer doesn't beat me: always the hurdle in this game to win any hand with Aces or better.
I'll report back how it goes...
please report back...
for some reason you got buried by other bloggers when blogging had been quiet. That an omen?
Definitely a good omen... :)
I still may adjust my current strategy, although it will involve the games played above, at minimum. Part of my Free Play is on Sunday when I'm really crunched for time, as I have a family commitment and a long drive from the casino as my Free Play becomes active at 10am. And then another casino trip afterwards for more coupon madness. I'll report back with the details- hopefully glory and not gory...
I don't have a lot of time for a trip report, but quickly:
1. Friends joined me so we went partners through a lot of the evening, changing things a bit.
2. Played $1108 FP through the 5-real double-diamond slot, alternating $27, $36, $45 plays with a total take around $2300. We got two bonus spins- one at the $45 dollar level and one at the $27 dollar level. Of course in hindsight it's easy to say we should have continued on this particular machine, but the remainder of the FP didn't work out that well!
3. My buddy contributed $400 cash to the 4-card poker part of the plan and even with the $800 Bonus Bets, we essentially lost it all. We only got one "good" hand (2-pair) and lost with it for a $700 turnaround. I enjoy the game and have done well with it in the past, but this time it was really poor!
4. Played some other carnival games and slots without too much to report.
5. Stopped at Hollywood Casino Toledo first thing and played Pai Gow Poker and did not do well- not the way to start the day. No banking- I don't like it. Thankfully, recouped Pai Gow losses at Greektown later in the trip.
All in all, did not break the bank with the continuing lesson to be learned: make your plan and stick to it!