TheBigPaybak's Blog

Congratulations, that win is HUGE!!!

Thanks! While I've had larger runs coming back from deficits, I think this was my second-biggest net-win for a session, which is how I keep track. I've had quads twice in the game now, although not at max bet the first time, although I was still playing black chips. I've been extremely lucky to catch some good hands when betting big, which has allowed me to keep my head above water playing these -EV games. It's still a bit hard to believe and quite lucky- considering the number of total hands played at that level before catching the hand...

Hope you missed buying those calls. In a couple of days some far out 10's should look good.

That wasn't meant to be a shot.... going into the money with more time just seems a little better play. After reading my first comment, didn't sound very good.

Unfortunately, my order did go through- so I'm officially in ultra-long-long-long shot mode at this point. It's a shame, as the market is now rebounding, which I was counting on as part of the original equation, so if they just would have beat by 10% or so, things would have worked out in my favor. But they didn't and now here we are. I do think the sell-off was over-blown, and can't understand why anyone would want to be short at this point. We just closed up $.87 today, which isn't a bad turn-around from the blood-bath yesterday although I would have liked to see $1+ gain. We also got an upgrade. Hopefully some good news out of the Analyst meeting tomorrow, though. Time will tell.



Outside of my gamble this month, I haven't generally done so with SHFL maintaining a rather large stock position for the long-term instead- although longer-term 10 LEAPS certainly wouldn't be a bad play, imho. I think the current CEO is doing a good job, although I certainly wouldn't mind a little proactive action in the form of a buyback or a small dividend...

Wouldn't count on dividend or stock buyback. Stock has a great risk reward ratio. Steady revenue stream that should remain stable even in bad market. As states look for more tax revenue and start to turn to internet gambling SHFL should be in a great position to capitalize. Just sit back and wait. Even if a couple of years before anything developes, still very little risk.

I'm in for the long-haul unless something very bad changes their story- no rush on this one. And I (unfortunately!) tend to agree with you: I don't get any sense of either a buyback or dividend on the horizon, although in today's market, either could be a smart move. With no debt(although the new offices and Ongame acquisition will cost money over the next year) and increasing recurring revenue, they're on solid financial footing to make moves, imho...

please report back...



for some reason you got buried by other bloggers when blogging had been quiet. That an omen?

Definitely a good omen... :)



I still may adjust my current strategy, although it will involve the games played above, at minimum. Part of my Free Play is on Sunday when I'm really crunched for time, as I have a family commitment and a long drive from the casino as my Free Play becomes active at 10am. And then another casino trip afterwards for more coupon madness. I'll report back with the details- hopefully glory and not gory...

I don't have a lot of time for a trip report, but quickly:

1. Friends joined me so we went partners through a lot of the evening, changing things a bit.

2. Played $1108 FP through the 5-real double-diamond slot, alternating $27, $36, $45 plays with a total take around $2300. We got two bonus spins- one at the $45 dollar level and one at the $27 dollar level. Of course in hindsight it's easy to say we should have continued on this particular machine, but the remainder of the FP didn't work out that well!

3. My buddy contributed $400 cash to the 4-card poker part of the plan and even with the $800 Bonus Bets, we essentially lost it all. We only got one "good" hand (2-pair) and lost with it for a $700 turnaround. I enjoy the game and have done well with it in the past, but this time it was really poor!

4. Played some other carnival games and slots without too much to report.

5. Stopped at Hollywood Casino Toledo first thing and played Pai Gow Poker and did not do well- not the way to start the day. No banking- I don't like it. Thankfully, recouped Pai Gow losses at Greektown later in the trip.



All in all, did not break the bank with the continuing lesson to be learned: make your plan and stick to it!