sol
Posted by sol
Dec 13, 2015

The questionable efficacy of 'random' thinking.

The first and only time I checked into this website, likely there were varying opinions as to the cryptic content of my 'contribution', and the relative abruptness of my subsequent sign off. Discretion in communication is not exactly my strong suit, hard for me to tell when to, what to, and what not. But it's been almost exactly a year since I last butted into the conversation, perhaps it's the seasonal inspiration.

BBB, you were the least judgemental, and close, really in your uptake, insofar as the foundation for this deck of cards, more specifically the game of 'vingt-et-un' is steeped in esotericism (of the numero-geometric kind). In any case, this website seems for the most part less militant in it's defense of patently untenable status quo notions, such as 'basic strategy'. (grin)

Actually donated the exacting (underlying) formula for this game on my last time around. Can't hardly manage direction of others' attention, only cast out an occasional pearl or two as they come available to me. Will suggest, however, that if the results don't entirely reflect the projections, one or the other might be due for some rigorous (self?) examination.

Here's the thing (again) if one does not fully grasp the mathematical reason and import for the J,Q,K = 10,10,10, rather than 11,12,13, then it just doesn't reasonably follow that they can at the same time have anything resembling a coherent approach to this game. It is the control device to maintaining balance, order, and the card trick nature of this game.

'Intelligent Design', science ain't too big on running those two words together, at least not with regard to an overall picture. Some sort of egoistic conflict of interest, I suppose. Myself, I tend to believe the evidence of my own eyes, particularly over a period of time which in my case it's safe to say is not insubstantial by any compare.

The reason that 'b.s.' cards are permitted, yea encouraged, for casino patrons is that they keep players calculating their strategies based on 'random numbers'. As the saying goes, 'find the pattern then put yourself in a position to benefit when next it comes around.'

Happy holidays and coming new year to all you would be treasure seekers!

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Dec 13, 2015

So, to sum up your flowery verbiage:-

We got it wrong to calculate the best basic strategy based on the rules of the game and the probabilities that arise from random distributions of cards, because we are blind to the true patterns that emerge.

Bunkum.

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Dec 13, 2015

Glad you're back. I always enjoy your " riddilic" (riddle-like) thought process. It's an exercise in/for "grey matter."

I'll give it a try...but I'm stuck from the start with your reference to baccarat 8+7=59 ( true); and to the right of 7 on the beam 8,9,10,10,10,10, in that K,Q,J,10, in baccarat =0 and not 1, so, I get left sum=21 but right sum=17, unless K,Q,J,10 each respectively did =1 which would then balance.

Then, once resolved, how to apply to the game? Good Riddle for sure!!!

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Dec 13, 2015

correction typo I meant 8+7=5 not 59

sol
sol Dec 13, 2015

Ha ha! Okay, thanks for the reminder.

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Dec 16, 2015

confused, but finally " got " the arabic vs pre-arabic value , ( my bad ) then in re-reading your first post from nearly a year ago, you noted K Q J " A "...10 10 10 10 but did you mean K Q J 10 ? If A= 1 then it would belong on the left, but if ='d 10 , would be on right ..??? I'm thinking, from other content we are at same destination but traveled different but non-linear paths, nonetheless, to arrive.

sol
sol Dec 17, 2015

cwwbjr;



Dude, not all that complicated. Draw a straight line comprised of 13 points (any suit you like): K,Q,J,10,9,8, (7) 6,5,4,3,2,A. The six numbers balancing either side of center point 7 add up to the name of the game (21) given it's fundamental math is numerology not linear. Ace =1, K,Q,J designated 10s = 1+0 (also) =1. Calculate your odds of that being a coincidence, then try to plug your basic strategy random number theory into that.



The game of 21 is a numero-geometric application to an already numerology based deck of cards. 52 cards = weeks of the year, 13 cards per suit = lunar months of the year etc. Random numbers ... really??



The root word for authority is author, and I guarantee you Thorp was not the author of this game.



S.

sol
sol Dec 17, 2015

Once Dear;



In a word, yes. Well not so much bad math as the wrong (by a few centuries) math. And didn't you mean debunkum? A little quick to judge, always a give away.



Those of you who think you know everything are just an irritation to those of us who actually do. (grin)

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Dec 17, 2015

Yes, I get the balance......just pondering the application . Thanks!

sol
sol Dec 17, 2015

Hmm ... reverse engineering the formula to get to the money.



Once you see for yourself that there is a formula - cryptogram actually - then trial and error, process of elimination, time on task should get you where you want to go. Remember, it's numero-logic and very clearly a question of balance. Find the tipping point.



Wouldn't want to spoil the fun! I will say, however, that no progress towards uncovering a favorable place to raise your bet can be made until such time as you recognize that it is there to be found.



Again, happy hunting if you choose to.



S.

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Dec 17, 2015

Hunting now... I'm not paraskivadecatriaphobic but being born on Friday the 13th in the 8th month gives me pause. Numerologically 8 denotes balance and $$$$ and added to 13 = 21. Any reason to go down this path?

sol
sol Dec 17, 2015

Sorry, the subjective aspects to these cards are not my strong suit. Mine is more a roll up your sleeves and see how these numbers 'tend' to interact with each other from hand to hand.



Done my best, already, to clear away most of the pseudo academic debris that has for some time now cluttered the way and otherwise misled from the true nature and potential solutions to this most ancient cipher '21'.



Brings to mind a friend from my past. When asked what he was doing, often he would reply simply, if jokingly, that he was just shoveling shit. Trying to dig out from underneath most everything he had 'learned' while growing up.



Sometimes, I guess, less IS more.



S.

sol
sol Dec 18, 2015

Trying to bring definition to the invisible is exhausting work. Enough I think for this go around. You can lead a horse to water ...



Speaking of which, it's just about that time of year again, anyway.



The sound of steel drums, the lilt of reggae rhythms in the distance re-assuring all there is "no problem". Blades whirring, colors rising, signalling festive libations on the way. Kick back, stool legs seeking purchase in the sand. Behind me, waves washing away both sand and cares alike., Palm fronds swaying in the salt kissed breeze. In front, a discernible buzz growing, as the coin flips and another playoff season gets underway.



Go Seahawks !



S.

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Dec 18, 2015

Aha! There, it is ! .....

sol
sol Dec 19, 2015

Yeah, just a dream. You can go back to sleep, now.

cwwbjr
cwwbjr Feb 03, 2016

I've been trying to figure out how to reverse engineer this non-linear numero-logic task. I think I understand some of your clues such as, the analogy of the hand vs the entire arm , and one's tendency to concentrate on the individual hand vs the entire process , but I'm not clear on your meaning of the term non-linear vs linear etc. or if there is significant meaning in your statement , "less is more". Can you clarify these thoughts.



Also, I'm confused about how the 10 value cards ,10 J Q K resolving to the value of 1 play into the decision of whether to take a card or not, or something else. Ex. If I have 2 ten value cards I have a total of 20 , not 2 , so I need more clues/hints because I'm not understanding how they interact since I only know my 2 cards and the dealers up card. Should I assume that this is sufficient information upon which to make my decision or do I need to rely on a broader array of cards from other players or multiple hands before making my decision (assuming we're not counting, correct?). Which decision am I looking for ; the card play decision, bet amount decision, or a favorable upcoming opportunity...? Which??



I also quite frequently notice that where BS says stand on say a 12,13,14,15, against a " dealer bust card" 3,4,5,6, for example, the dealer has no problem hitting those hands against the player's bust hand and wins seemingly more often than not.



If you can, without publishing the entire fight manual, please provide some additional clues. I am eager to investigate further.

The Best to You!

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sol
Posted by sol
Dec 30, 2014

Mathematically Speaking ...

It has been posited that figuring out the right questions to ask is fundamentally more important than the answers that would subsequently follow. Horse before the cart sort of thing, I guess. To wit, I would pose the following ...

Why is the original name of the game, most commonly referred to as 'blackjack', actually ... '21'? ('Vingt-et-un', to be more culturally and historically precise.) More to the point, why 'hit' to 21 rather than to, say, 20 or 22? Could 21 be more than just a random destination?

Okay, riddle me this. Why did the original authors of this game choose to designate the values of the J,Q,K as 10,10,10, rather than, for small example, 11,12,13? Again ... more random numbers?

Why do you suppose there are so many 'pushes' in this game? How many pushes are there? Enough that the dealer can expose both of his first two cards to the player in a version called 'double exposure' or 'face up 21', in exchange for the 'tie' going to the 'house'.

Why, within the (advantage) play of a normal game of 21, might it be fiscally prudent to view a 'push' as the mathematical equivalent of a flashing yellow light?

And what might the answers to these relatively simple inquiries reveal about the long standing and virtually unchallenged status-quo of 'basic strategy' (garbage in - garbage out?) and an industry that has only grown 10,000 fold under this 'gate-keeper's' watch.

If you can answer correctly any one of these questions, chances are ... you can answer them all.

Hint: In the sibling game of baccarat (frere' 'Bacca'?) 8+7=5? Pray tell - mathematically speaking - what sorcery is this??

S.

Comments

Zcore13
Zcore13 Dec 30, 2014

I'm no math genius, but I don't think any of the variables would make much difference in the game. If it was 23 instead of 21 there would still be the same amount of ties (11% I believe). The advantage comes from the dealer going last after the player has had an opportunity to bust. I don't think it would matter if it was 21, 23, or 32. The only thing I can think of is if the number was more in the middle (25, 26, 35, 36) there might be few busts?



ZCore13

sol
sol Dec 30, 2014

Well, can't really say except ... to think non-linear, think non-random, think 'core-values', think ... not for nuthin' but it is the name of the game, after all.

sol
sol Dec 30, 2014

zcore13



Not to be too cryptic, but that is the true mathematical nature of this game. Mine were rhetorical questions, of course, in fairness the answer to one of them might be of some use to you. If you draw a straight line (balance beam) composed of 13 points (Ace-King) you'll find the 7 to be the point in the middle. A-6 on the one side of the 7 balancing the 8-K on the other (six numbers on either side.) Ace equalling 1, add the numbers on that side of the seven together and see what number that comes to. I'll leave you to your own devices to figure out how the six numbers on the other side of the seven (8,9,10,10,10,10 serve to balance the weight.



S.

OnceDear
OnceDear Dec 13, 2015

If you want to invent a game where the cards have different values for the picture cards, then go ahead. Mathematics and probability calculations will tell you what house edge or players edge your paytable will give.



It's all rather academic though. We have enough variants of Blackjack where minor rule changes give well known changes to house edge.



It's not mystical. If you can challenge the Basic Strategy calculations, you'd better do it with maths and maybe come up with something demonstrably better.