Posted by manfou
Aug 20, 2015

how do the casinos work out?

i always wonder how the casinos work out what the odds of a gambler should be when the real odds are different.


standbymyman Aug 21, 2015

We all wonder WTH your question means!

rdw4potus Aug 21, 2015

there is no reason for those to be different. The real odds favor the house and that's all they need.

FleaStiff Aug 26, 2015

As with anything, competition forces them to give the player better odds from time to time.

all casinos focus on the "hold" of a game and the "drop".... casinos know what a slot machine should earn or what a craps game should earn the casino for the space and labor it consumes.

Its like giving away those 99 cent shrimp cocktails that cost the casino two dollars to make. No one knows why the casino does it, they just know that everytime they stop doing it, people drift away to other casinos.

jjjoooggg Aug 26, 2015


RS Aug 29, 2015

There's "House Edge" and then there's "Theoretical [loss]".

The term theoretical loss typically is related to how much a player is expected to lose given his style of play / strategy. For example in blackjack, there may be a 0.5% HE. But that's only if you're playing proper basic strategy. Most players do not use proper basic strategy. They don't double their 10's vs 7/8/9, they don't double 11's vs 9/T/A, they have no idea how soft-doubling should be done properly, and most will not hit a soft-18 vs 9/T/A.

Theoretical would be how much the house expects to win off of players given their poor strategy. I'd guess most decent players are playing with a 1% theoretical loss, many semi-frequent gamblers are playing with a 1-2% theoretical loss, and the drunken idiots who do awful plays like doubling down on hard hands or never hitting stiff hands...are probably playing beyond 2%...the worst players are likely better off playing Keno or some slot machines.

jjjoooggg Sep 04, 2015

The casino sees so much play that the estimated % return should be close to theoretical. But I wonder how much do advantage players skew the expected value? Do advantage players really put a dent in the profits? The wizard said that he detects maybe one counter in a casino half the time. Do advantages players really threaten the casino's subsistence. I noticed the M doesn't have many gamblers drive out that far. Wonder how the M is doing financially?

FleaStiff Sep 04, 2015

the M tightened up because they are cheap people but they are doing very well anyway.

a bj counter is not really a threat to a casino ... think of it from a barber's perspective: Its saturday in the suburbs and the barber has a kid come in... the little kid will get a real fast cut because its the men who leave tips and they are lined up six deep.

same with bJ... the legit players are dropping money at bj like crazy, so the casino resents a seat being tied up by a no tipping AP card counter.

jjjoooggg Sep 12, 2015

For your first question:

I guess the employees have access to the casino gym

jjjoooggg Sep 12, 2015

Second question:

The odds are worse since most wont play a perfect strategy